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  • Mea Culpa: Beazer Homes May Be Best Speculative Play In Homebuilding [View article]
    I am not assuming any HPA appreciation for FY 2014 above what the company already has reflected in their backlog. Backlog ASP was ~$275K or $20K higher than that seen from Q3 closings. Said another way, I believe the company has 200bps of GM% increase already in backlog from pricing actions already taken.

    The $.88 of EPS for 2014 is intriguing because the build out of the community count will not be completed at the beginning of 2014. For example, by 2015, the company should be operating closer to its targeted community count level driving significantly higher EPS in 2015 (I would estimate over $1.50 in FY2015).

    The PB ratio is also going to be extremely compelling and I think that drives investor interest when it is actually reported with the effect of the DTA reversal, which will not be until 2015 probably for GAAP rules. However by that time, the thesis will have played out and you would have probably missed the opportunity.
    Aug 12, 2013. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mea Culpa: Beazer Homes May Be Best Speculative Play In Homebuilding [View article]
    Margin growth is a lagging indicator in homebuilding. For example, the average sales price of homes sold but not closed is over $20K than that for homes closed in the last quarter.

    What does this mean? A portion of the higher ASP is related to the mix of communities most likely. However an equal portion of going to be related to price increases that have been taken but have not yet shown up because the homes have not closed. The same concept of how gross margin % grew by 200bps on a QoQ basis will play out again over the coming year because of the higher prices.

    I am not assuming the market gets any better at all. Simply that price increases that have already been taken stick and that the same volume of business continues without any additional growth except from new communities. Pretty simple analysis quite frankly.
    Aug 11, 2013. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mea Culpa: Beazer Homes May Be Best Speculative Play In Homebuilding [View article]
    Heavy amount of debt and for those seeking exposure to a short in the industry. Very misguided in my opinion and with a pretty small float to begin with will be a huge catalyst for shares running higher at some point.
    Aug 9, 2013. 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Importance Of The Department Of Defense Contract For BlackBerry [View article]
    I have a lot of hope for BlackBerry, but this article is grasping at straws.

    Remember when BlackBerry announced a 1M unit order for BB10 phones? The point being, this means nothing in the grand scheme of whether or not BlackBerry will succeed, just as what many thought was a game changing sizable order meant nothing.
    Aug 8, 2013. 11:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UCP Inc: Hybrid Real Estate Play Offers The Most Short-Term Upside In Real Estate [View article]
    Do you really care if real estate, with a carrying value of north of $140M, might be burdened by $40M in debt? It might be a problem if the company had $400M in debt...but they do not.

    PICO allowed their shares to be diluted in the IPO because the company realizes the optimal way to create value from the land holdings is for UCP to be successful as a development/homebuliding company. When UCP shares double, the shares owned by PICO will double in value as well.
    Jul 29, 2013. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UCP Inc: Hybrid Real Estate Play Offers The Most Short-Term Upside In Real Estate [View article]
    You do not follow housing companies if you think 20-30% gross margins are low.

    Also, G&A costs were burdened by one time costs associated with the IPO and will not be recurring.
    Jul 29, 2013. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Objective Look At The Performance Of Seeking Alpha's Alpha-Rich Articles [View article]
    Kevin - your analysis shines a light on something that should be available to readers. Performance associated with AR type articles.

    I would hope to see some format in the future where authors of AR articles can "close" the call made in the article. For example, while an article may advocate x % of upside/downside, if the stock moves sharply in line with the call an author makes in a short period of time many would advocate taking the gains even though a specific price target may not have been met.

    If you think of an AR article like you would an analyst rating, if the thesis on the stock changes, then an analyst might change their rating. As an example, the GME article that is referenced in your table would have resulted in a 75% loss on the investment. My hunch is that when the thesis did not play out as expected, the author would have closed the position (if they had one). Likewise, if someone pitches 100% upside and the stock only moves up 75%, they would also probably take the gain and close the position. In this second instance, the stock could move up 75% and then give up all the gains. If the article simply isolated a reason for a short term move in the stock, and the thesis plays out, simply looking at the life to date return of an AR article might not capture that the article was in fact spot on.

    Food for thought.
    Jul 28, 2013. 09:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coinstar Shares Are Woefully Undervalued [View article]
    The stock was up 15% almost from when I wrote this article.

    The company increased both its core EBIDTA guidance and FCF guidance in a material way compared to the last guidance given.

    This is a buying opportunity.
    Jul 26, 2013. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UCP Inc: Hybrid Real Estate Play Offers The Most Short-Term Upside In Real Estate [View article]
    They did not buy land until 2008. No legacy assets prior to that time.
    Jul 25, 2013. 05:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UCP Inc: Hybrid Real Estate Play Offers The Most Short-Term Upside In Real Estate [View article]
    1st question: very hard to give you a specific number. I would refer you to the portion of the article that shows the ~15 communities the company will open for sale in 2013 or that are already open. There are 1,000 lots in those communities out of roughly 4,000 lots the company owns. So you can assume that at least 25% of the owned lots are fully developed or almost fully developed.

    2nd question: again I would say look at the table I referenced in my first answer. You can see the price point the company anticipates selling homes at. Anything north of $400K is probably in a somewhat urban location.

    You actually get more detail from a prospectus filing associated with an IPO than you will ever get from a future 10Q or 10K report. Lots of hidden gems in the prospectus.

    Hope that helps.
    Jul 25, 2013. 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UCP Inc: Hybrid Real Estate Play Offers The Most Short-Term Upside In Real Estate [View article]
    Yes, book value represents the purchase price of the land + any costs incurred to develop/improve the land.

    Book value does not incorporate any market value increase of the land holdings, which for land purchased in 2008-2011 time period, is frankly guaranteed to exist.
    Jul 25, 2013. 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coldwater Creek: A Potential Lotto Ticket In The Retail Sector [View article]
    SA ran a headline earlier that the company has engaged a firm which is stoking some buyout speculation...
    Jul 25, 2013. 12:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UCP Inc: Hybrid Real Estate Play Offers The Most Short-Term Upside In Real Estate [View article]
    This is your analyst coverage:)

    No - with the IPO being a week old on a small cap stock there will not be any analyst coverage until the underwriters come out of the embargo period. I would highly suspect that both Citi and Zelman Associates will put outperform ratings on the stock. Zelman, the analyst side at least, is wildly bullish on housing.

    This will probably remain a name that receives little coverage which is a positive for investors as you can sneak in before the big boys do.
    Jul 24, 2013. 09:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UCP Inc: Hybrid Real Estate Play Offers The Most Short-Term Upside In Real Estate [View article]
    I had not noticed that until I read your comment. Don't know why or how that was added in after I submitted the article. Thank you for catching that and I will put in a request to have it corrected.
    Jul 24, 2013. 09:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorts Crowd In For Samsung S4 Play But Overlook The Forest For The Trees [View article]
    Post earnings thoughts?
    Jul 23, 2013. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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