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  • Ingles Markets Could Be In Play After Harris Teeter Acquisition [View article]
    Lot's of interesting comments on the article. Thank you for your insight. With the stock up almost 15% since the article was written, I would probably take some money off the table and pocket a quick gain for anyone who bought in when the article was published. I feel strongly that upside is capped at about 30% in the near term from the original ~$25 level it traded at when I wrote the article. I always have trouble with the idea of chasing that last bit of upside for a stock.
    Jul 15, 2013. 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comprehensive Tax Reform Could Slam H&R Block [View article]
    What used to be known as refund anticipation loans were discontinued. They just came back in another form that gets around the legislation that was meant to stop them.
    Jul 12, 2013. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shutterstock Valuation Makes Me Shudder [View article]
    Thanks Mark

    I think the concept is cool, but the possibility of a business like this maintaining its growth and 60% gross margins is just not feasible. They are probably lucky that most of those contributing the images/footage sold are not reading this article and realizing how much money the company is keeping, versus passing more on to the contributors.

    Someone will come into this market and accept 30% gross margins and destroy this business model.
    Jul 12, 2013. 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Smarter Way To Invest In Nvidia [View article]
    Maybe you can learn something today.

    Your risk of loss, using the investment I laid out above, is no greater than if you were to buy the stock outright. How that can be considered a risky investment is beyond reasoning. With the comment you made, you are inferring that owning the stock outright involves less risk which is simply not true.

    The investment I proposed would actually allow the stock to decline 15% before you realize any type of loss. If you owned the stock, and it declined 15% from its current level, you would immediately be in a loss position.

    I am not sure about your rant but thanks for the comment.
    Jul 12, 2013. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dire Predictions For Housing Recovery? [View article]
    If Kermit the Frog told you that home prices were going to plummet, and you also had Warren Buffet telling you that housing was a great value today, who would you listen too?
    Jul 11, 2013. 09:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dire Predictions For Housing Recovery? [View article]
    If you think house price gains slowing to 4 - 6% annually, from 13%, is a headwind for the housing market you are sorely mistaken.

    Nobody with any intellect with regards to the housing market, thinks that double digit annual price gains are sustainable or healthy. 4-6% price gains would be extremely healthy for the market and would promote more of a recovery than bubble type gains.
    Jul 11, 2013. 09:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dire Predictions For Housing Recovery? [View article]
    You don't have to agree with me. I am telling you to listen to John Burns and the CEO's of the major homebuilders.
    Jul 11, 2013. 12:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dire Predictions For Housing Recovery? [View article]
    Your point about institutional money moving out of the market, appears to be meant to justify how the housing market will weaken?

    I would be thrilled to see institutional money leave the market, because that means prices will stop being bid up, and those actually looking to buy and live in a home will benefit. Just as there are those who are afraid of rising mortgages, there are still plenty of buyers scarred from the plunge in home prices years ago. Many, like myself, were watching prices rise at a double digit clip on an annual basis and felt this was the beginning of the next bubble. I would rather seem home sales stagnate at the current levels and prices begin to rise a few percent per year. It is much healthier for the market.
    Jul 10, 2013. 11:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dire Predictions For Housing Recovery? [View article]

    This analyst is comparing the pits of the housing crash to a period of significant recovery. Anyone listening to him will lose money or lose out on the opportunity to make money.
    Jul 10, 2013. 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dire Predictions For Housing Recovery? [View article]
    I am not denying that a larger monthly payment is a negative for most people. But if you want to buy a home, what are you going to do? Sit back and watch home prices appreciate another 3% and interest rates go up another 50bps? Absolutely not.

    The point is that interest rates are still incredibly low by historical standards and affordability is incredibly low as well.

    200,000 jobs being added to the workforce every month has a much larger effect on housing than the spike in interest rates.
    Jul 10, 2013. 10:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vistaprint: The Case For Shorting The Stock Has Strengthened [View article]
    I have no short position.

    There is virtually zero barrier to entry into the business segments Vistaprint caters to. Plenty of companies would be willing to enter this space at a much lower GM% than what Vistaprint is able to achieve, which would put significant pricing pressure on the company and its product offering.

    It is also hard to really deem this a true growth stock. Analyst estimates are looking for growth under 10% annually...that is not deserving of a 16x EBIDTA multiple.
    Jul 9, 2013. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harris Teeter: Will An Acquisition Materialize And At What Price? [View article]
    I guess this turned out to be an accurate assessment, not much upside from an acquisition.

    The bigger trade off of this will be a reset of valuations for other names in the sector. We now know what multiple a potential acquisition of other names might come at.
    Jul 9, 2013. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HD Supply: Still Yearning For The Days Of Old [View article]
    Masco has high debt but has a significant cash balance and is generating a significant amount of FCF (to pay down the debt).
    Jul 9, 2013. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HD Supply: Still Yearning For The Days Of Old [View article]
    More pure play on housing - Masco
    Jul 8, 2013. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting BlackBerry Is 'For The Birds' [View article]
    Sure did. I would still say shorting the stock is absolutely ludicrous at these levels (sounding like a broken record considering I felt the same way at $15 a share). The profit potential for a short trade is much less than a long trade at this point in time.
    Jul 8, 2013. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment