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Glentel Part 6: Normalized Earnings, Valuation, M&A And Risks
- GLNIF's normalized earnings are approximately $2.00 per share.
- Based on 2016 estimates, GLNIF trades for 6x cash earnings and 3x EV/EBITDA.
- Cheap M&A provides opportunities for further value creation over time.
Glentel Part 5: Australia
- Allphones working towards regaining break-even after losing Optus as a customer.
- Outside chance Optus returns as customer if subscriber growth remains lackluster.
- Joint venture in the Phillipines could contribute profits in the coming years and is a beachhead for growth in Asia.
Glentel Part 4: The Canadian Wireless Code Of Conduct
- Shortened Canadian wireless contract directions negatively impacted GLNIF's sales by -15% starting in mid-2013.
- This effect has been amplified by poor performance at new Target stores.
- When Canadian phone upgrade patterns return to normal, GLNIF should see $0.25-0.40 of EPS growth, though this may occur over a period as long as three years.
Glentel Part 3: How The Businesses Work
- Discussion of the Canadian businesses.
- Discussion of the U.S. businesses.
- Discussion of the other businesses.
Glentel Part 2: The Problems Facing The Company Today
- The Canadian Wireless 'Code of Conduct'.
- Target Stores.
- Lost Business in Australia.
Glentel Part 1: Introduction
- Well-run company, operating an above-average business, currently trading for 8x depressed cash earnings, and paying a 5% dividend.
- Glentel's cash earnings are likely to grow ~50% over the next three years.
- Peer M&A multiple would value Glentel at $15-20 per share today, and $25-30 based on 2016 earnings.
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