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Monty Spivak

 
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  • Analyzing Canadian REITs, Part V: Retail [View article]
    Hi amateur_investor,

    Thanks for your question:

    Any chance Dundee is gearing up for a distribution increase after the Industrial IPO? Numbers look strong. Dundee is distributing roughly 90% of AFFO and 77% of FFO. If not, at what point do you think this would be considered?

    Frankly, I suggest that they are executing a growth strategy through acquisitions, so may not release this cash back to shareholders. In the last few years, Dundee REIT bought a major building in Toronto, purchased another Canadian REIT (Whiterock REIT), and seems to be on the prowl for other growth opportunities at favorable cap rates. As you can tell from a chart, their unit prices have performed extremely well.

    I hope that you are proved right, and that I am proved wrong, and there is a distribution increase coming...

    All the best! Cheers, Monty
    Sep 28, 2012. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Canadian REITs, Part XII - 2012 Canadian Real Estate IPOs [View instapost]
    Hi Howard,

    Thanks for your question. I am also long (although only a small position in) Dundee International REIT (DUNDF.PK). This REIT holds commercial properties in Germany. I am not attracted by the portfolio - rather, I am impressed with how their management builds value through low-cost acquisitions, so believe that they are building the European portfolio at bargain-basement prices. Dundee REIT also continues to hold large positions (+40%) in Dundee International REIT.

    I also am challenged to purchase at reasonable prices in the Grey Market / Pink Sheets. For example, my Australian positions required years to build. The alternative is to find a low-cost broker to execute non-local-market trades, as we had previously discussed.

    All the best! Cheers, Monty
    Sep 28, 2012. 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Canadian REITs, Part VIII: Brookfield Asset Management And Real Estate Funds [View article]
    Hi galicianova,

    Thanks for your interest!

    Just one last point, BPO has substantial, high-quality real estate assets in Canada, USA, and Australia. I used their website: http://bit.ly/PNenSx when writing these articles.

    My single issue with both BAM and BPO is that the yield is too low (or perhaps, prices too high?). Otherwise, I consider them the premier security in this space.

    All the best! Cheers, Monty
    Sep 23, 2012. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Canadian REITs, Part VIII: Brookfield Asset Management And Real Estate Funds [View article]
    Hi galicianova,

    If you are looking for Brookfield Real Estate exposure, perhaps buy BPO? Again, the dividend yield is higher than BAM, and the current relative price differential - BPO has fallen farther than BAM - may provide more headroom for gain? Again, this is just my $0.02, and for disclosure, I used to own BPO.

    Cheers, Monty
    Sep 22, 2012. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Canadian REITs, Part VIII: Brookfield Asset Management And Real Estate Funds [View article]
    Hi galicianova,

    Interesting question...

    I have always liked BAM, but only own its preferred shares (and BPO preferred shares), as I am a "yield on investment" investor, and the common shares yield is too low for my investment qualification. BAM seems well-managed, and are a great - perhaps the best - overall play on infrastructure + real estate (with a heavy skew towards developed countries). BIP is 40% owned by BAM, so buying BAM gets you both. Both also have assets that you can touch - one of my investing criteria.

    I have previously owned BIP, and earned an excellent yield and capital gain when it reached my target. I love the infrastructure assets, global diversification under a "safe" management, and (previously-higher) yield.

    So... I would consider either a top-quality candidate, depending upon your goals. BAM for real estate + infrastructure, or BIP for infrastructure only. BIP typically provides double the yield of BAM, if your goal is income, but BIP distributions may create a higher taxation impact, due to its partnership structure.

    Frankly, my belief is that the macroeconomic factors will drive the share price for both of these (excellent) companies. Currently, I have been liquidating certain positions and am holding more cash. My crystal ball is no better than the next person's :)

    Best of luck! Cheers, Monty
    Sep 21, 2012. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge For Inflation And Deflation With Precious Metals Convertible Securities - Part 2 - Canadian Securities [View article]
    Hi,

    Thanks for your readership and comments. All are good points!

    Cheers, Monty
    Sep 19, 2012. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Canadian REITs, Part V: Retail [View article]
    Hi galicianova,

    I own Riocan - possibly the premier retail REIT in Canada (although holders of Calloway REIT may contest this) - so believe that it is a good investment candidate. This is viewed as a great name by many analysts. They have been benefiting from refinancing at very-low rates, and are widely viewed as a well-managed REIT.

    Most Canadian REITs have made substantial gains in the past year, so you may be buying-in at high prices (which may even go higher?). There is a widely-held belief that Canadian residential real estate is over-valued (there was never a crash, as was experienced in the US), so this is probably a consideration for all Canadian REIT investments, as there could be "collateral damage". As a heads-up, Riocan has been expanding in the US, so their position in non-Canadian properties is expanding.

    Cheers, Monty
    Sep 17, 2012. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Canadian REITs, Part V: Retail [View article]
    Hi galicianova,

    No problem - all questions are welcome!

    I have recently purchased small positions in the 2 following Canadian micro-cap REITs, which I feel are leveraged for income, but also have the opportunity for gains:

    HEALTHLEASE PROPERTIES REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST UNIT - HLP.UN:TSX - 7.9% yield on $10.75 CAD price; US healthcare property exposure, with a $150M cap.

    Dundee International Real Estate Investment Trust DI.UN:TSX - 7.4% on 10.80 CAD price; Germany office property exposure; under $600M cap.

    My largest (and what I feel is a "best") position is:

    Dundee Real Estate Investment Trust D.UN:TSX - 5.9% yield on $37.40 CAD price. Canadian commercial/office properties - a much larger cap (~$3.6B) than the others.

    Of course, these are not recommendations - just my actions based on my research.

    Good luck! Cheers, Monty
    Sep 16, 2012. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13% Short-Term Bond Yields From Recycling Waste Paper? [View article]
    Hi,

    Thanks for your excellent and interesting investment alternatives. It is my pleasure to read about your alternative investments and strategies. In fact, I started exploring this one, as I liked the risk profile, metrics, and "green" business. I have identified something that may be a consideration for your investment in this security.

    Some of the company financial history can be found on the OTC website: http://bit.ly/OlkfFv

    I also pasted the text, below:

    Company Notes
    Note= Company's subsidiary Paper International and Fiber Management of Texas emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy on 8-27-09.
    Formerly=Corporacion Durango S.A. de C.V. until 7-2010
    Note=company's business reorganization pursuant to Title Five of the Business Reorganization Act approved by the First District Judge of the State of Durango, Mexico. Holders of 13.125% Senior Notes due 8-1-06 & of 13.5% Senior Notes due 8-1-08 to receive pro rata distribution of Notes (New) & a cash restructuring fee on the exchange date. Rec date=12-23-04. Exchange date=2-23-05
    U.S. Address=700 Sam Houston Rd., Mezquite, TX 75149. Phone#: 972-285-8865
    Formerly=Grupo Industrial Durango S.A. de C.V. until 2-02

    Thanks, again, and please keep the great ideas coming!

    Cheers, Monty
    Sep 10, 2012. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge For Inflation And Deflation With Precious Metals Convertible Securities - Part 1 - U.S. Securities [View article]
    Hi KatAngela, Not my area of interest or expertise, but I propose that you start with the OTC site (http://bit.ly/A3TYY3):
    http://bit.ly/P4mLem
    Best of luck! Cheers, Monty
    Sep 8, 2012. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge For Inflation And Deflation With Precious Metals Convertible Securities - Part 1 - U.S. Securities [View article]
    Hi,

    Thanks for taking your time to read this article and for your feedback.

    New Low Observer: My pleasure to quote a great source! Thanks for your interesting take on things - I may not always agree, but enjoyed your refreshing perspective and reasoning.

    GCMagone: Good observation on my Gamco Gold Fund comment. I bought at $16 and as I wrote the article it was around $14. I suppose that I am a winner on the dividend reinvestment, but my original capital is well-under water.

    Drew: I, too like silver, but play it through HL.PRB, and a miniscule position in Canadian miner (that is based in Columbia, and has a silver-linked note). I will provide the complete info in my next article.

    Jack Lifton: You are right that Molycorp is not a gold company, and does not qualify for that category. That said, it is a "rare metal" producer, which I believe can provide inflation/deflation protection, while generating a yield on the preferred shares. I will also include palladium in the mix - stay tuned - which, again, fails the gold test, but is a (relatively) rare mineral. The focus of my reasoning is more around macroeconomic protection than what qualifies as a precious metal, and there were so few precious metal producers with convertible securities.

    Again, thanks to all of you for your interest. I am just wrapping up the Canadian list, which will largely be securities and companies that are rarely the topic of any articles.

    Cheers, Monty
    Sep 5, 2012. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard: Ready To Double [View article]
    Hi,

    Thanks for this interesting analysis. The numbers are compelling - based upon earnings, book value, and other metrics, it does seem like a "buy".

    I wrote a couple of articles about HP. One of them - about 1 year ago - proposed that the stock is a longer-term "sell" if they do not change their strategy (http://seekingalpha.co...).). My conclusions are that:
    1. HP is a great company.
    2. They have excellent technologies.
    3. The financials are difficult to assess.
    4. Management is not executing a winning strategy.

    This suggests that their management has not effectively assembled the components into a compelling value proposition.

    Perhaps the decision to invest in HPQ is not one of statistics, but of strategy? HP's value is its people and technologies (intellectual property) - they are not a "wires in the ground" company. The empirical nature of the author's analysis is excellent, but we need to temper it by adding the evaluation of senior management's effectiveness and execution.

    Respectfully, until management effectively leverages the value of HP's technologies and people, then book value and other numbers are just numbers. Investors should be tired of waiting - I sold my position. I propose that the stock remains a "hold" or "sell".

    Cheers, Monty
    Apr 1, 2012. 10:00 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Horizons Gold Yield Fund - Canadian IPO for Yield and Gold [View instapost]
    Hi,

    Just a quick update for those who are interested in Canadian gold funds, and a continuation of my assessment of HGY (now called: Horizons Gold Yield ETF).

    HGY has converted to a fund, and is trading at its NAV of just under $10.00 CAD; the fund cap is under $70M CAD; and, is yielding (including ROC) 9.4%. The link for detailed information is: http://bit.ly/zdhs7Z

    Cheers, Monty
    Mar 11, 2012. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Canadian REITs, Part VIII: Brookfield Asset Management And Real Estate Funds [View article]
    Hi Ron,

    I do not have any insight on this. I sold my BIP (as a partnership structure, the taxes in Canada are punitive), and BPO (made a little money, and wanted to take some off the table). I really like both, and would buy them again on a correction.

    BAM does not have a sufficient yield to interest me (and I am a dividend investor). That said, it seems to be a brilliantly-managed company, if you are seeking global infrastructure and real estate exposure in a conglomerate. It has been flat "forever", and I suggest that the growth and yield opportunities are in the individual specialized subsidiaries, rather than the parent (which the market seems to discount).

    Cheers, Monty
    Mar 10, 2012. 04:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Review: Jackass Investing [View article]
    Hi,

    I like your book review, and would like to add my $0.02.

    Jackass Investing is worth taking the time to read. I enjoyed how Mike Dever challenged the status quo, and provided excellent research and apt anecdotal stories.

    If you are tired about reading about the same theories, then try this for a change - many of the standard "truths" are treated as myths. Myth #13 (It’s Best to Follow Expert Advice) and Myth #15 (The Largest Investors Hold All the Cards) were my favourites.

    Frankly, I do not agree with everything in the book, but perhaps it is the reason I found it interesting.
    Feb 29, 2012. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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