Seeking Alpha

MoodyFX

 
View as an RSS Feed
View MoodyFX's Articles BY TICKER:
  • 3 Reason To Buy The Bottom In Crude
    Mon, Oct. 20 USO, OIL, UCO 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent sell-off in crude, while normal, has historically been followed by gains 64% of the time.
    • Inventories are at a seasonal peak - for the next 20 weeks, fundamentals indicate that you should be long crude.
    • After similar price movements, crude normally increases by an average of 27%.
  • Relax: Buy The S&P 500
    Thu, Oct. 16 SPY 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Recent volatility is quite in-line with 85 years of history; in 90% of similar years, price rallied over the next 3 months.
    • The 200 day moving average has been pierced - contrary to popular belief, this is a good buy signal.
    • Employment is bettering - this is a strong buy signal.
  • Fade The Pros - Buy The Pound
    Thu, Oct. 16 FXB 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Traders have exited pound positions at a strong rate - unfortunately they've been wrong 83% of the time.
    • The Bank of England might cease QE - this is bullish the pound.
    • The Federal Reserve is waiting to increase rates - this is bearish the dollar.
  • Ignore The Lows - Sell The Kiwi
    Thu, Sep. 25 UUP, ENZL Comment!

    Summary

    • The United States is growing faster than New Zealand - historically, this indicates a fall in NZD/USD 67% of the time.
    • The RBNZ is seeking a weaker currency - Don't fight it, sell the kiwi.
    • The Federal Reserve is cultivating inflation - Don't fight it, buy the dollar.
  • Sell The Canadian Dollar, Buy The United States Dollar
    Thu, Sep. 18 FXC, UUP 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Speculator sentiment indicates that there is a 65% of the Canadian dollar falling through year-end.
    • Economic rebound and the end of quantitative easing are bullish for the United States dollar.
    • A Canadian housing bubble and the potential for diminished oil demand are bearish for the Canadian dollar.
  • Buy The Euro, Short The Franc, And Profit From The Currency War
    Tue, Sep. 16 FXE 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Relative GDP suggests a 65% chance of the ero rallying against the franc over the next 6 months.
    • ECB actions almost dictate a weaker euro - but not against the franc.
    • With the franc trading just above the SNB-promised floor of 1.20, the reward to risk ratio is simply irresistible.
  • It's Time To Short Natural Gas
    Tue, Sep. 9 UNG 26 Comments

    Summary

    • In light of last year's historic winter, many believe natural gas will rise throughout this winter.
    • A clear relationship between inventory changes and natural gas price indicates that price will rise through year-end.
    • I believe there is a 63% chance that natural gas prices will fall through year-end.
  • It's Time To Buy Gold
    Fri, Sep. 5 GLD 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors perceive gold as a preserver of wealth during periods of inflation.
    • The perception of gold preserving wealth creates a relationship by which nimble investors can profit.
    • Inflation is increasing, which has historically led to gold rising in 73% of subsequent quarters - it's time to buy gold.
  • The Crude Decline May Continue
    Thu, Sep. 4 USO, OIL, UCO Comment!

    Summary

    • Despite a volatile macro-economy environment, crude prices are falling.
    • Money managers have trimmed exposure to crude by $10 billion since June.
    • The strengthening dollar and declining futures exposure suggests that crude prices may continue to fall.
  • EUR/USD: The Bottom Has Yet To Be Reached
    Thu, Sep. 4 UUP, FXE 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The European and United States economies are at odds.
    • Relative CPI indicates that it is time to sell the euro and buy the dollar.
    • Central bankers actions suggest that it is time to sell the euro and buy the dollar.
  • Buy The Dollar, Sell The Kiwi
    Dec. 4, 2013 UUP Comment!
  • Profit In The South China Sea
    Dec. 3, 2013 CEO, CNY, CYB 3 Comments
  • Short Duke Energy And The Bursting Of A Speculative Trend
    Sep. 13, 2013 DUK 7 Comments
  • Short Halliburton And The Slowing Shale Boom
    Sep. 11, 2013 HAL 19 Comments
  • Short Chevron: Profit From The Market's Oversight
    Jul. 8, 2013 CVX 59 Comments
  • Prepare To Short Qualcomm
    Jul. 7, 2013 QCOM 15 Comments
  • Coca-Cola: Short The Market's Oversight
    Jul. 1, 2013 KO 15 Comments
  • JPMorgan: Buy A Leader
    Jun. 28, 2013 JPM 1 Comment
  • McDonald's: It May Be Time To Go Short
    Jun. 26, 2013 MCD 16 Comments
  • Caterpillar: It May Be Time To Go Short
    Jun. 26, 2013 CAT 12 Comments
  • Short The Market: It's Simpler Than You Think
    Jun. 23, 2013 IYR, IYZ, XLB 10 Comments
  • Hewlett-Packard: Short The Short Squeeze
    Jun. 14, 2013 HPQ 23 Comments
  • Wells Fargo Is An Attractive Buy
    Jun. 14, 2013 WFC 7 Comments
  • Long AUD, Short USD: Profit From Fundamentals
    Jun. 12, 2013 FXA, UUP 1 Comment
  • The Market May Favor Shorting Ford
    May. 15, 2013 F 25 Comments
  • Apple: The Bottom Has Yet To Be Reached
    May. 10, 2013 AAPL 50 Comments
  • Cisco: Buy The Market's Oversight
    May. 10, 2013 CSCO 5 Comments
  • Citigroup: It May Be Time To Buy
    May. 9, 2013 C 6 Comments
  • Bank Of America - This Time, The Rally Might Continue
    May. 8, 2013 BAC 1 Comment
  • Buy General Electric - Just Not Yet
    May. 7, 2013 GE 8 Comments
  • Shorting Intel Could Be A High-Probability Trade
    Editors' Pick • Jan. 17, 2013 INTC 33 Comments
  • Home Depot May Decline In The Future
    Jan. 10, 2013 HD 10 Comments