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Unusual Opportunities In Alcoa
- Statistically speaking, two key factors indicate that it is time to buy Alcoa.
- Fundamentally, Alcoa is a strong investment, but beware of developments in energy and the dollar.
- Avoid the "analysis fallacy" - stick with something simple.
3 Reason To Buy The Bottom In Crude
- The recent sell-off in crude, while normal, has historically been followed by gains 64% of the time.
- Inventories are at a seasonal peak - for the next 20 weeks, fundamentals indicate that you should be long crude.
- After similar price movements, crude normally increases by an average of 27%.
Relax: Buy The S&P 500
- Recent volatility is quite in-line with 85 years of history; in 90% of similar years, price rallied over the next 3 months.
- The 200 day moving average has been pierced - contrary to popular belief, this is a good buy signal.
- Employment is bettering - this is a strong buy signal.
Fade The Pros - Buy The Pound
- Traders have exited pound positions at a strong rate - unfortunately they've been wrong 83% of the time.
- The Bank of England might cease QE - this is bullish the pound.
- The Federal Reserve is waiting to increase rates - this is bearish the dollar.
Ignore The Lows - Sell The Kiwi
- The United States is growing faster than New Zealand - historically, this indicates a fall in NZD/USD 67% of the time.
- The RBNZ is seeking a weaker currency - Don't fight it, sell the kiwi.
- The Federal Reserve is cultivating inflation - Don't fight it, buy the dollar.
Sell The Canadian Dollar, Buy The United States Dollar
- Speculator sentiment indicates that there is a 65% of the Canadian dollar falling through year-end.
- Economic rebound and the end of quantitative easing are bullish for the United States dollar.
- A Canadian housing bubble and the potential for diminished oil demand are bearish for the Canadian dollar.
Buy The Euro, Short The Franc, And Profit From The Currency War
- Relative GDP suggests a 65% chance of the ero rallying against the franc over the next 6 months.
- ECB actions almost dictate a weaker euro - but not against the franc.
- With the franc trading just above the SNB-promised floor of 1.20, the reward to risk ratio is simply irresistible.
It's Time To Short Natural Gas
- In light of last year's historic winter, many believe natural gas will rise throughout this winter.
- A clear relationship between inventory changes and natural gas price indicates that price will rise through year-end.
- I believe there is a 63% chance that natural gas prices will fall through year-end.
It's Time To Buy Gold
- Investors perceive gold as a preserver of wealth during periods of inflation.
- The perception of gold preserving wealth creates a relationship by which nimble investors can profit.
- Inflation is increasing, which has historically led to gold rising in 73% of subsequent quarters - it's time to buy gold.
The Crude Decline May Continue
- Despite a volatile macro-economy environment, crude prices are falling.
- Money managers have trimmed exposure to crude by $10 billion since June.
- The strengthening dollar and declining futures exposure suggests that crude prices may continue to fall.
EUR/USD: The Bottom Has Yet To Be Reached
- The European and United States economies are at odds.
- Relative CPI indicates that it is time to sell the euro and buy the dollar.
- Central bankers actions suggest that it is time to sell the euro and buy the dollar.
- Buy The Dollar, Sell The Kiwi
- Profit In The South China Sea
- Short Duke Energy And The Bursting Of A Speculative Trend
- Short Halliburton And The Slowing Shale Boom
- Short Chevron: Profit From The Market's Oversight
- Prepare To Short Qualcomm
- Coca-Cola: Short The Market's Oversight
- JPMorgan: Buy A Leader
- McDonald's: It May Be Time To Go Short
- Caterpillar: It May Be Time To Go Short
- Short The Market: It's Simpler Than You Think
- Hewlett-Packard: Short The Short Squeeze
- Wells Fargo Is An Attractive Buy
- Long AUD, Short USD: Profit From Fundamentals
- The Market May Favor Shorting Ford
- Apple: The Bottom Has Yet To Be Reached
- Cisco: Buy The Market's Oversight
- Citigroup: It May Be Time To Buy
- Bank Of America - This Time, The Rally Might Continue
- Buy General Electric - Just Not Yet
- Shorting Intel Could Be A High-Probability Trade