Moon Kil Woong

The Unemployment Rate in Perspective

I remember when all the analysts mirrored the government and said unemployment shouldn't reach more than a tad over 8% and should drop after 6-9 months. Now all the analysts are once again lapping up the bologna the government throws out. What use are they? Do they have a logical, independent, analytical brain in their head?

I would like to see their justification. Charts like these show that this decline bears no resemblance to recent past declines. Furthermore, although theoretically the spike up should end there is no indication it will end in the 10% range. I give this analyst credit not to call the top range but still.

As for GDP, real is not the word I would call it when you devalue the dollar over around 13% to get slightly over a 3% increase not to mention that all of it was government fat and temporary wasteful one time stimulus. So I wonder, if they predict further growth in GDP does that mean they expect the dollar to dip how much further? Do they expect cash for say refrigerators, lawnmowers, and computers? How much longer will this have to continue before it all gets magically better? And why won't it just melt down into a soviet socialist type heap?

Personally, I would like one of these analysts to explain how it all gets better mid 2010 when the market realizes about that time all the stimulus money is about to end? Are they presupposing a $2-3 trillion dollar follow on stimulus. I'd like to hear how they care going to sell that to foreign bondholders? Believing that without a second stimulus the downturn will end to me sounds like lunacy. Throw these analysts out by the ear.