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  • Barron's: Five oils to buy now [View news story]
    Yes and the recommendations sound more like a sales speel than real investment advice. Perhaps the only oil company to own is Exxon at its low production price and it's not even listed. Even then, why buy now when you can buy tomorrow even lower. The glut is still there and even the national reserves are filling up faster than they want to.

    Maybe they need to make giant oil prison ships that float for years at sea with the excess. Oh sorry, there are already oil tankers doing essentially that shipping oil to the US while the US tries to sell the excess from what they produce in the US elsewhere. All such silliness is high grade oil which if hits the market would destroy oils last bastion, the high prices at the gas stations. Poor consumers can't get a break.
    Dec 20, 2014. 11:36 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia Has Come A Long Way From The 1998 Default [View article]
    Russia has a lot of gold, oil, and other resources like diamonds to dump to support itself, however, that still doesn't address the fact they don't have much besides natural resources to sell abroad save nuclear weapon technology to N. Korea. Russia needs to embrace democracy and start producing goods and services not just fight internally over who owns natural resource reserves and companies.

    Unfortunately Russia still needs and wants goods from abroad, thus not that much has changed. Ergo, the Ruble's slide. The side of the economy doesn't matter as much as the speed at which it burns its reserves which has also risen. Fortunately they have some, but for how long?
    Dec 20, 2014. 11:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Markets Will Sink In Titanic Fashion [View article]
    Indeed the stock market with its plunge protection team is a much bigger synthetic market that is frothy than the oil market. As such, its plunge is liable to be nothing short of gut wrenching, but also, like we know, the bigger the bubble with government involved, the longer it takes for everyone to realize even the government and the central bank eventually can't help it. Like Fannie and Freddie Mac, one can only hide the problem for so long and synthetic government socialist guarantees only work until they don't and by then there are no buyers.

    Sadly, the Federal Reserve is so busy trying to enrich their friends there is no more lateration and favors they can give to help the market when it declines. And sadly, the US government continues to spend well in excess of what the entire world can want in US Treasuries. Thus both the Federal Reserve and US government can't bail out an already pumped up economy without frightening everyone by spending or expanding their balance sheet to the point no one can call it a real market or even capitalism anymore. By then, socialism will be upon us and it will take centuries to rid ourselves of it if we ever do, much like Europe is facing right now.
    Dec 20, 2014. 11:23 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Key Role In The Downfall Of Oil Prices [View article]
    As always there are two sides to a story, a trade, and a market move. Those claiming treachery, hidden wars, collaboration, etc. are mistaken. If there is such behind the decline shouldn't they also point to the same factors which have been in effect raising oil prices to unprecedented values even as production, reserves, and excess have been building for over 12 months. Even the US' and China's reserves which add false demand that isn't there wasn't enough to offset the glut of oil as the US oil companies try to export oil so they can keep importing oil from the Mideast with their existing contracts to try to keep the price up and people not to see the price weaken even further.

    Sadly, the production in effect is not easily cut and it may be years before the oversupply comes into parity. This is not due to some magic force causing its decline. It is the inevitable effect of the forces that allowed massive overinvestment in oil and speculation to run it up wildly. Oil here is not mispriced. Oil where it has been was mispriced. Once again those watching a bubble burst and are in the wrong side of the fence are easily to blame others and refuse to acknowledge the factors that caused the bubble in the first place.

    It is much the same as the housing market the last downturn. It was a massive bubble. It's popping was not from people trying to impoverish everyone and ruin banks. Banks ruined themselves and the US government itself engaged in policies that suckered people who could not afford property to buy it en-mass. One must look at the run up to see the real culprits, not just the ones who led the decline.

    Unfortunately, policies and the central bank made a lot of bubbles once again and oil is probably nothing but the first one to collapse.
    Dec 20, 2014. 11:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Selling: Cleaning Up After Elephants [View article]
    Thanks for your article. It is a good read and reinforces the often mistaken theory that shorting is almost entirely made due to charting and bad news. In fact, many companies are not very healthy and some are downright poor. As the tide rises shorters with knowledge take advantage of the discrepancies, however it is a difficult game to play. News usually works out in favor of bad companies even though its undeserved yet people only yell when bad news comes out on a company. Wrong news whether positive or negative needs to be yelled out. Unfortunately there is a wealth of most likely purposefully faulty news that comes out of the financial companies that are supposed to accurately portray companies to the market.

    Those who find fault, whether good or bad should be rewarded for their effort at truth, but often are not.
    Dec 20, 2014. 10:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Salesforce.com [View article]
    CRM has been playing these accounting games for years and their real cash flow is horrific with suspect profitability right along with it. I don't see this train unhooking until its way too late. If your bearish on the stock, I'd suggest out of the money puts when you think things are coming apart. There are too many Wall Street people hooked onto their money train to think any talk about reality will translate into a market re-evaluation of this stock unless the outcome is so bad they all run for the hills not to be associated with decades of collusion with this company.
    Dec 19, 2014. 12:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech Bubble? Definitely Not In The Public Markets [View article]
    The assumed bubble in Internet stocks is just a function of the whole stock market that has been trumped up by the central bank's terrible policy of protecting it from downturns and thus creating this bubble much like the government did in the last housing market collapse by creating support for loans through Fannie and Freddie. One must look at the whole picture and the whole picture to see the bubble. The stock market looks like bubble wrap stuck in a giant balloon.

    Indeed, high growth tech looks less bubbly than much of the rest of the market who's stock prices are absurd given the lack of growth and profitability to sustain their high valuations. Rather look at the collapsing bubble in oil and next the alternative energy market, real estate, banking, and consumer goods. There are a lot of clearly big bubbles with clear dependence on central bank and government support that is unsustainable or very high expectations with very real fundamental growth after stripping out stock buybacks.
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • To The Question, 'FedEx Or UPS?' The Current Answer Is, 'Neither' [View article]
    100% agreed. Anyone who things the woes of the post office won't impact these two don't realize how much both of these firms rely on post office infrastructure to do what they do. The post office should deal with their mounting losses by raising rates for carriers using them rather that trying to slowly raise stamp prices which do even less go with forever stamps.
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • End Of Tesla, Or End Of Oil? [View article]
    Oil is clearly an over invested bubble and has been for a long time. Likewise gas prices at the pump are even more overpriced and should come down. As oil capitulates down the line it will get worse. This will eventually impact the bonds and affect the junk market.

    Likewise, there is no reason to suggest the decline will be limited to oil. In fact oil is just the first bubble to fall. Alternative energy will also get slammed and Tesla is in this field as well as the artificially stimulated other bubble which will be known as the 2014 stock market pump bubble the Federal Reserve has openly created even though the hazards of doing so have been stated ad infinitum in the past. Don't make policy on the stock market and don't manipulate it. The Federal Reserve has lost their sanity a long time ago with not just zirp and QE but the active manipulation of our capital markets.
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:39 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Primary 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Yields Rise 0.04% And Value Of Net Servicing Closes Up 1.69% For The Week [View article]
    Mortgage bonds are all synthetic and the market is manipulated by Fannie and Freddie Mac. Thus the real cost and risk of default can not be accurately obtained by current rates. Sadly this is the effect of derailing capitalism. Logic goes out the window and no one can get accurate information based on intelligence. Rather you must depend and hope on government policies and manipulated rate setting.

    My fear is that housing is as bubbly as it was before the last crash and that there will be a whole slew of new losers very soon. Inefficient markets make people engage in serious mistakes and create huge losers.
    Dec 13, 2014. 03:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm's Growth Prospects Look Promising Despite Negative Headwinds [View article]
    Arguing QCOM should trade at ridiculous prices the same as other companies is moot, although I certainly agree the other companies should trade lower. One argument that could be made for QCOM is that its revenue seems much more stable in downturns than other telecoms.

    I don't think Snapdragon will make much difference one way or the other and perhaps that is why they may delay it. This is an area where tech is far ahead of actual use and forging further on makes little sense. Most people take pictures of no more than Full HD with most pictures falling even below HD.
    Dec 13, 2014. 03:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury yields plumb new lows [View news story]
    Yes Japan is the end run game of the big government spending propped up by fake QE printing. The US is in the same situation and is one reason the Federal Reserve is loathe to quit QE or let rates rise even a little. The other issue is that all the low rate bonds they bought would make their balance sheet look even worse if ever market to market. Apparently they care about being mark to market broke even though they publically state they don't have to abide by any sense of sensible accounting.
    Dec 13, 2014. 02:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe closes out worst week in more than three years [View news story]
    Santa's bringing a lot of coal for bad behaving governments. Maybe that will cause oil to fall further, lol.
    Dec 13, 2014. 02:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Snap Up The Immense Opportunity In Exxon Mobil Corporation [View article]
    Sadly Exxon will get hammered as oil prices slide regardless. It is amazing how little the price decline is affecting gas prices at the pump. Someone is making a small fortune duping the public. Last time oil hit $60 a barrel gas was at well under $0.75 a gallon.
    Dec 13, 2014. 02:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 321K jobs added in November [View news story]
    The best part is the growth was in the private sector. The bad news is that its mostly small businesses which usually mean the end of the up cycle is near.
    Dec 6, 2014. 03:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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