Daily State Of The Markets: Will We Be 'Talking Taper' Soon? [View article]
I guess escape velocity to the fed means a bubble in real estate again. The issue is the economy is not growing very fast at all so once again all the excess cash is rushing into an already overpriced RE market supported by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which is backed by the Fed buying their lousy mortgage bonds so they can write more mortgages and the US government that has been shelling out money to pay their losses quarterly.
On top of that you have QE also artificially lowering US Treasury and bond prices by buying US Treasuries. The simple fact is the Federal Reserve can't easily stop QE because their is not enough demand to buy the US Treasuries the government sells and they can not unwind because there's no one to buy what they bought without registering a loss (instead they don't report their losses, they just let it sit on the books at the price they bought everything at which is the worst way possible to do bank accounting).
You would think the Federal Reserve that manages banks and represents them, and is now in charge of regulating them would at least have good accounting rules for itself. Ha, it has written its own regulations to exempt itself from legitimacy (no repricing, no audits, and no accountability).
Microsoft Baiting A Trap For Bulls? [View article]
I understand angst in having to online to play games, but this has little impact to Microsoft. As for Amazon, it is dominant already so Microsoft is understandably just holding on.
Microsoft is terrible at going up against a dominant player it can't simply buy out. That's why it trades close to 10x forward PE as it should. It isn't restructuring, its remaining as stagnant as ever and killing the PC market with a failed new OS (Windows 8) which no one wants.
What is amazing is that it is still profitable despite its myriad of failures and the fact that people just circumvent its OS software nowadays by making all programs run on the browser to avoid their constant OS upgrades and failures. Microsoft's OS is bordering on irrelevant and obsolete and even will thousands of programmers they still don't know how to write a better one.
I have a suggestion for them. Rewrite the core just like Apple did when Jobs integrated Next Computer's OS into their computers. The sad thing is Bill Gates never wrote the OS (he bought it) and no one since ever bothered figuring out how software is made, they just massage a giant growing ball of garbage code that is inefficient and archaic (this leads to shutdowns, errors, viruses, and slow computers).
77 Years Of Being Wrong Just Isn't Enough [View article]
You are correct, Ponzi schemes fail because there is not a ever growing source of new investors. Even the same number of investors will not keep it afloat. In order to prop this up there is a growing consensus in Washington to allow a mass influx of immigration to get those new investors even though we have a massive amount of unemployed already. Weird...
The first way oil is manipulated is the strategic reserve that increases demand and sucks up excess supply for oil companies. As for the claim of a potential squeeze, I doubt it, Most likely these contracts will just be closed and rolled into new ones as usual. It is understandable the bets on higher oil prices. The summer season usually lends itself to increased demand and higher prices.
My suggestion is to fill up while there is a glut and be happy that you get at least that, because seldom does the oil industry pass on cost cuts to the consumer. Rather they shut down refineries for maintenance, lobby Washington, or work with banks to park all the oil tankers off the coast, or play games in the futures market to push up prices. Failing that their is always Mideast war tension games and buying out all the small oil companies so the second oligopoly remains in tact (1) OPEC (2) Corporate oil oligopoly of Chevron, Exxon, etc.
Silver: Was Friday's Spike A Bullish Indication? [View article]
The author has somewhat set himself up by hedging his bearish sentiment bet on gold. If precious metals now rise he wins on silver and if it falls he can say, see I told you I was right that gold will fall. This is a atypical of many people calling the market.
The correlation between the two is way too high to have opposite opinions on both unless its a physical supply issue like (miner strikes at big silver mines, a sharp drop in copper production where lots of silver is processed as a byproduct, or a sharp increase in unbacked paper gold issued like was issued by DB to initiate the recent 4/15 selloff).
Gold Rises, Stocks Fall: Will The Trend Continue? [View article]
Paulson should take delivery on his gold. That will demonstrate that his call on the commodity is right, just not the call on paper gold which is multiplying faster than the US dollar through US gov. debt and QE.
They simply can't deliver the quantity of gold to back the paper stuff.
I predict there will be war about the budget in Washington again and the Fed will have a hard time increasing QE in 2014 so their best avenue to secure their QE power will be to let the economy crash again. Beware... the Fed is not a market fundamental so they remain a bit unpredictable although Their intentions seem usually pretty clear (gain power by crashing the economy and implementing things like QE, save the banking sector, and dole out money only to the financial sector through QE, low loans, and backstops regardless of the health of the monetary system or the American people.)
Proof That Google Glass Uses A Himax LCOS Microdisplay [View article]
Who really cares about a niche product that goes nowhere. Google is right to use a cheap product. The product must be very cheap and look cool. It certainly fails on the look cheap as well as a killer app.
Integrated circuit expert and SA contributor Karl Guttag has conclusive proof that Himax (HIMX) microdisplays are being used in Google Glass (GOOG). Shares of Himax (HIMX) are down more than 28% since May 31 after Google Glass teardowns revealed no Himax logo. [View news story]
There is nothing special about Google glass. Pop up displays for airplanes, esp. military have been around for a long time. The issue is price. It needs to be cheap, cheap and look cool. Then the issue is what app really needs this. Maybe maps but people have enough problems watching the road without the added distraction.
If The Fed Tapers, It Risks Triggering A Stock Market Avalanche - Here's Why [View article]
Yes, the Federal Reserve buying treasuries doesn't increase liquidity on their end, they just allow the government to spend tons of money made from pretty much nothing. It is then financed to run deficits and spend more by selling bonds to an institution that is backstopped by the government and is allowed by the government to print money.
So from the other end money supply balloons as the government dumps new liquidity into the market. Does it matter which side of a two holed balloon you blow on as long as the other side keeps the air from slipping out? In the end the effect is the same, the balloon is blowing up and new liquidity enters the market. Sadly it seems to mostly go to cronyism and graft.
This works as long as the economy and stock market stays up. This portfolio is way too consumer oriented. If you think growth is the key tech should be more heavily in it. If you think the market will be flat with no change this is a good buy, but that rarely happens.
LOL, it's a bit late to short gold. As mentioned, there is no new reason listed in this article. A good reason would be like GS is issuing a gold ETN backed by 1/20th physical gold. Of course... guys this is an example.
You would have shorted gold when DB announced they were issuing a new ETN to flood the market with even more synthetic gold paper on April 15th. Supply and demand. They just keep making an endless supply of paper gold much like the Federal reserve makes an endless supply of money through QE. Paper gold is essentially gold monetization.
What Really Happened To Silver: A Different Perspective [View article]
Avi, overprinting is just plain overprinting. Regardless of "conspiracy" or not the simple fact is the banking sector is flooding the gold and silver market with unbacked silver ETFs ETNs etc. far in excess of demand and in excess of supply as well.
As for the Eliott wave, it works when it works and doesn't when it doesn't. Like most chart functions, it is based upon expectation not some fundamental science. When expectations or fundamentals change so does the results. Sadly, the Eliott wave is one of the most primitive mathematical formulas to track the market. That's why so many people follow it and don't look into complex algorithms which are more reactive to change and adhere to market dynamics better.
Charting works to look at market expectation, but real chartists use calculus not algebra.
Groupon Is Still A Short, Upgrade Is Not Justified [View article]
Daily State Of The Markets: Will We Be 'Talking Taper' Soon? [View article]
On top of that you have QE also artificially lowering US Treasury and bond prices by buying US Treasuries. The simple fact is the Federal Reserve can't easily stop QE because their is not enough demand to buy the US Treasuries the government sells and they can not unwind because there's no one to buy what they bought without registering a loss (instead they don't report their losses, they just let it sit on the books at the price they bought everything at which is the worst way possible to do bank accounting).
You would think the Federal Reserve that manages banks and represents them, and is now in charge of regulating them would at least have good accounting rules for itself. Ha, it has written its own regulations to exempt itself from legitimacy (no repricing, no audits, and no accountability).
Microsoft Baiting A Trap For Bulls? [View article]
Microsoft is terrible at going up against a dominant player it can't simply buy out. That's why it trades close to 10x forward PE as it should. It isn't restructuring, its remaining as stagnant as ever and killing the PC market with a failed new OS (Windows 8) which no one wants.
What is amazing is that it is still profitable despite its myriad of failures and the fact that people just circumvent its OS software nowadays by making all programs run on the browser to avoid their constant OS upgrades and failures. Microsoft's OS is bordering on irrelevant and obsolete and even will thousands of programmers they still don't know how to write a better one.
I have a suggestion for them. Rewrite the core just like Apple did when Jobs integrated Next Computer's OS into their computers. The sad thing is Bill Gates never wrote the OS (he bought it) and no one since ever bothered figuring out how software is made, they just massage a giant growing ball of garbage code that is inefficient and archaic (this leads to shutdowns, errors, viruses, and slow computers).
77 Years Of Being Wrong Just Isn't Enough [View article]
Monday Manipulated Market Malarkey: Welcome Greater Fools [View article]
My suggestion is to fill up while there is a glut and be happy that you get at least that, because seldom does the oil industry pass on cost cuts to the consumer. Rather they shut down refineries for maintenance, lobby Washington, or work with banks to park all the oil tankers off the coast, or play games in the futures market to push up prices. Failing that their is always Mideast war tension games and buying out all the small oil companies so the second oligopoly remains in tact (1) OPEC (2) Corporate oil oligopoly of Chevron, Exxon, etc.
Silver: Was Friday's Spike A Bullish Indication? [View article]
The correlation between the two is way too high to have opposite opinions on both unless its a physical supply issue like (miner strikes at big silver mines, a sharp drop in copper production where lots of silver is processed as a byproduct, or a sharp increase in unbacked paper gold issued like was issued by DB to initiate the recent 4/15 selloff).
Gold Rises, Stocks Fall: Will The Trend Continue? [View article]
They simply can't deliver the quantity of gold to back the paper stuff.
4 Reasons To Buy Back The Dollar [View article]
Caterpillar: 15% Dividend Increase Makes It A Buy [View article]
Proof That Google Glass Uses A Himax LCOS Microdisplay [View article]
Integrated circuit expert and SA contributor Karl Guttag has conclusive proof that Himax (HIMX) microdisplays are being used in Google Glass (GOOG). Shares of Himax (HIMX) are down more than 28% since May 31 after Google Glass teardowns revealed no Himax logo. [View news story]
If The Fed Tapers, It Risks Triggering A Stock Market Avalanche - Here's Why [View article]
So from the other end money supply balloons as the government dumps new liquidity into the market. Does it matter which side of a two holed balloon you blow on as long as the other side keeps the air from slipping out? In the end the effect is the same, the balloon is blowing up and new liquidity enters the market. Sadly it seems to mostly go to cronyism and graft.
Taking Care Of Grandma's Money [View article]
Gold: Time To Short [View article]
You would have shorted gold when DB announced they were issuing a new ETN to flood the market with even more synthetic gold paper on April 15th. Supply and demand. They just keep making an endless supply of paper gold much like the Federal reserve makes an endless supply of money through QE. Paper gold is essentially gold monetization.
What Really Happened To Silver: A Different Perspective [View article]
As for the Eliott wave, it works when it works and doesn't when it doesn't. Like most chart functions, it is based upon expectation not some fundamental science. When expectations or fundamentals change so does the results. Sadly, the Eliott wave is one of the most primitive mathematical formulas to track the market. That's why so many people follow it and don't look into complex algorithms which are more reactive to change and adhere to market dynamics better.
Charting works to look at market expectation, but real chartists use calculus not algebra.