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Moon Kil Woong  

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Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Survive The Coming Industrial Revolution [View article]
    Sadly zirp and every other recent stimulus discourages savings and encourages debt making it less likely the middle class invests in the market or anything else. The author is right that automation will throw out a lot of people from their jobs and give power to those who control production.

    This is less of an issue because already that is occurring because of the outsource movement. China and emerging economies will get hit first and then we will get hit as the service industry is transformed. The only read safety is ownership of productive assets or companies that control them. Sadly this will be the few while the many will loose the ability to sell their labor for assets and thus will become dependent on whatever society throws their way, or doesn't.
    Jun 29, 2015. 08:46 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Second Half Outlook: Quadrophobia [View article]
    The reason the second half looks so bad is because the Fed is pushing off raising rates. They still haven't figured out the longer they wait the worse it generally becomes because the market is sliding into the last get of the cycle which is a decline leading to the first step of a new cycle. They have taken Keynesianism and done the opposite. Stimulate in the up cycle and now are looking at tightening in the down cycle.

    The other issue is Greece which is not rally a black swan given its inevitability. This has been delayed for years now. One can not claim this is unexpected unless you're utterly stupid and blind to International economic events.

    Another issue is China which will sooner or later effect the whole market as it also looks to be teetering at the end of an over stimulated stock and property market.

    The author was good to point out major issues to look at. Besides Yellen, who else thinks the second half of this year is looking good?

    Jun 29, 2015. 06:53 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Do As Greece Crosses The Rubicon [View article]
    Worse yet is contagion like this has spread before from Asia. The simple fact is everyone including the US should tighten their government budgets and try to stop the constant deficit spending. Those that don't may get hit next. Given the number of countries Greece will hardly be the last to fall as this crisis expands and everyone runs for cover.
    Jun 29, 2015. 03:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dog Of A Week - A Tale Of 3 Flags [View article]
    There was plenty in the news last week. Besides Greece which will be in the news next week.

    The health sector will rejoice in Obamacare, although long term it will look worse and worse simply because it is not sustainable at the current price and as it increases it will not be affordable and thus will not meet the goals it was intended to. Better for this sector is the Supreme court decision which paves the way for gay couples to get healthcare through spousal arrangements. I think many of these folks are financially better off than those under Obamacare.

    You are right to point to weakness in tech. If you are smart you should be looking for an exit sign soon.

    Lastly, the rise of the dollar and gold, and the rise of rates for thinly traded bonds are also showing a strong move towards defensiveness. I expect this attitude to play out this week much like it did last week in China.

    Jun 29, 2015. 12:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's $370 Billion Margin Call [View article]
    China already acted by lowering rates. Fortunately they can do that unlike the US which still has rates floored which is utterly stupid at this point in the economic cycle. I like how everyone blabs about Keynes and how the Fed is Keynesian. What they are doing has 0% to do with any Keynesian anything. They are anti-Keynesian for easing throughout the entire economic cycle and leaving no room for easing when we hit the next downturn.

    People need to read economics more and stop blabbing about what they don't know. They just show their ignorance. Economic stimulus throughout the whole economic cycle is more socialist than Keynesian. Keynes would be utterly against the Federal Reserve's actions if he were alive.
    Jun 29, 2015. 12:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Psychology Ahead Of Key Events In Greece And The U.S. Jobs Data [View article]
    The dollar will gain, even if Yellen proves to be pathetically unable to raise rates again and if the economy shows no growth increases. A rate increase avoidance chance by her is about 50% and rising expectation, although in reality I think its much more. So she gets an easy way out of having to raise rates, especially if the oil glut drops oil prices further yet again.
    Jun 28, 2015. 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil rig count falls again, but overall total rigs finally rise [View news story]
    The big issue is other suppliers are headed to market including big developments in Mexico and Iran biting to dump boatloads of oil. Russia will dump boatloads into China through a pipeline and all those who think that won't have an effect are kidding themselves. The oil glut is getting worse not better by the moment.
    Jun 28, 2015. 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Haven't Been Paying Attention. What's Going On In Greece? [View article]
    Greece's debt to GDP is so bad there is no way they ever can pay it or even keep up interest payments. Their debt spending is so bad a save today just means the issue will come up again in a year and go on until you eventually cut them off. This will bankrupt the lender just as much the debtor of it gets much worse. Last, their economy makes no capitalistic sense as the people employed or on government doles far exceeds those in the private sector. It is a sinking ship and the sooner it sinks the better off they will be. If they get much deeper, nothing can save it.

    It is 100% obvious they need to reach harbor and default asap. Likewise, they need to plug their budgetary holes in government spending and make their economy seaworthy by dumping the excess wasteful spending. Sadly, the real worry is that they are already too far out at Sea and no one will be willing or able to salvage anything when it sinks.

    The economic risk to all is not contained to the EU. The simple fact is there are other countries running the same unsustainable socialistic schemes of borrow and blame the borrowers and will be called out now that the game is exposed for what it is again. Likewise, it makes it clear that government bonds do not mean risk free and never should be considered risk free unless a government has not used Keynesian tools and rates are normal and not floored to zirp. Thus it may affect the US cost of capital as well.
    Jun 28, 2015. 11:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On The Doorstep Of A Fed Rate Hike Cycle [View article]
    The simple fact is there are strong bets out there that the Fed will only raise once this year and a few even believe she is too gutless to do anything ever. until she proves she can actually do anything why should the market believe her. She is not just a dove, she represents the death of Keynesians through the blatant constant misuse of stimulus.
    Jun 28, 2015. 11:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Punch Bowl Edition (Podcast) [View article]
    Stocks shouldn't be factored into inflation. However, the Fed should focus on asset bubbles and illiquidity. Likewise, the Fed shouldn't be actively creating them which they have been by telling TBTF banks to inject more capital into the stock market.
    Jun 28, 2015. 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PBOC cuts rates [View news story]
    It is sad to see China back down from otherwise successful tightening. China needs to tighten even if it means cutting growth to reign in speculation that will inevitably create disaster much like the US is playing with.

    Clearly the US Federal reserve knows its playing a very poor and very dangerous game since it is not willing to even risk a cyclical downturn nor tighten even with 1 rate hike yet. I wonder if China knows its risk for a runaway housing and stock market. At least they are trying to stop it from getting worse, unlike in the US where they lowered rates for down payments for housing to NINJA levels again through the socialistic government housing structure known as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to under 5% down required.
    Jun 28, 2015. 11:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Of Greece, Lights Out? [View article]
    Regardless of what happens they will still owe the money. Sadly they will just run up new debt whatever they do because their government structure spends inordinate amounts of money supporting a social structure that is not fundable. Likewise, if they make a currency it will do little because no one wants it and has little value and even less as they go on running everything into the ground.

    Their issues are far from over. It only gets worse from here on.
    Jun 28, 2015. 10:56 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The False Debate - Deficit Spending Vs. Austerity [View article]
    The great depression was caused more by the Federal reserve than economics failing the people. Keynes was good at pointing out not to stimulate in a upturn and stimulate at the bottom of a downturn. The Federal Reserve seems to have forgotten such wise council and falsely claims to follow Keynesian thinking when they do exactly what Keynes was against.
    Jun 28, 2015. 01:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Tsipras sets July 5 referendum on bailout [View news story]
    Not really. His party is recommending not to approve it. Thus, he clearly wants to pass the buck and blame the people who are saddled by a most ridiculous government. Ignorance is one thing, but this is just cowardly.
    Jun 28, 2015. 01:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash bid for German miner likely faces pushback from target, regulators [View news story]
    Sadly, I generally agree, although Potash should wait until the next economic downturn to get a lower price and increase its chances with regulators. I don't see this deal ever being cemented in this market.
    Jun 28, 2015. 01:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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