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Moon Kil Woong  

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Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The U.S.'s Debt 'Supercycle' Ended In 2007... [View article]
    The issue with consumer debt is that as you pump up housing prices with very little growth in wages or earnings as the Federal Reserves practices have done and as the US government is doing through Fannie Freddie, allowing banks to hold housing without marking to market, etc. you make it not just hard for consumers to buy houses, but force them to save to buy them. Yet as housing prices rise faster than savings and wages they fall further behind.

    Face it, the consumer has gotten clocked as wages stay flat and housing and student loans both inflated thanks to government actions. In addition, the government itself also got in worse shape as it mounted tons more debt and is now the ultimate fall guy for banks going bad and home loans going bad. That's what happens when you try adding socialism into your economic system.

    We need to get the socialist behavior out even if it costs our economy in the short run, because if we don't it will cost our entire economy in the long run. No one is reading economic signaling anymore, just looking at the Fed and government for their actions. This is absolutely terrible.
    Aug 27, 2015. 04:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bulls Case Remains Weak [View article]
    The brokerages and market makers are having a ball here. Volatility and big swings end up stripping investors of loads of money who are then encouraged to hedge and move their money yielding even more fees and margins to lick up. Rather than brooding over this last downturn, Wall Street is frothing at the mouth for more volatility.

    Beware folks. There is a great many factors in the market that want the worst outcome for you and often get it.
    Aug 27, 2015. 04:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smart Beta, Dumb Money And EMH [View article]
    Funds in the US are overpriced, there is not good oversight, and lots of number games going on. That's because they as a whole overcharge and underperform the market and are terrible as taxable vehicles on theoretical gains. The big issue is the false direction people get to buy them by money managers who clearly aren't looking out for their customers interests.

    There is little morals in finance and almost none in the mutual fund industry.
    Aug 27, 2015. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth Is 'Pending' Among Pending Home Sales [View article]
    The housing price rise, especially in cities is making it harder for people to buy houses or be able to afford anything else. This issue needs to be addressed since it's Federal Reserve and government/Fannie & Freddie policy that is creating bubbles in asset classes such as the stock market and housing.
    Aug 27, 2015. 04:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil skies 10% as Venezuela reportedly asks for emergency OPEC meeting [View news story]
    Indeed, the reversal is really built on nothing we haven't heard before from the Fed not raising rates to astounding numbers after dour ones. The selloff was more rational and was not done out of fear. This rebound seems a bit unnatural given its rise is steeper than the fall.
    Aug 27, 2015. 04:16 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Cheer A Higher Federal Funds Rate [View article]
    Indeed economists should be lamenting the fact rates are at zero as we face a economic downturn. So much for any belief that the Federal Reserve follows Keynesian ideas. They don't, the follow fairytale books written by Eva Peron but edited by TBTF banks so that all the money gets dropped onto them instead of the masses.
    Aug 26, 2015. 08:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks surge after six days of losses, traders pile in during final hours [View news story]
    Yawn, yay the Fed helped the market by restating its possibility it may delay raising rates by the least amount they can. This is how many times this ploy has been played out. Get serious, the Fed doesn't intend to raise rates and the fact that it isn't is already overly valued into the market.
    Aug 26, 2015. 08:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Needs QE Infinity [View article]
    The problem is they did it in the first place and the author is right that it can't be undone even though the Federal Reserve says it is no problem. It's much like going into a black hole, it will strip your country of safety from declines, then strip it of growth, strip it of ever correcting the economy to meet market reality, run your country and your central bank into massive debt, and eventual collapse. In the meantime as people realize that more QE gets harder to mint then the value of money get even more scarce as the fall becomes imminent ushering in a even worse collapse.

    The whole issue of QE is yes, it inevitably points to absolute illogic and is impossible to sustain. There is no meaning of infinite QE or infinite liquidity. Infinite is equated with worthlessness which eventually will be what you will get traveling down QE's path.
    Aug 26, 2015. 08:25 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Every Investor Must Know About China [View article]
    2 things are happening in China. China pegged to the dollar is getting its production yanked to SE Asia due to being costlier than SE Asia where currencies vs. the dollar have been sliding.

    The other is the gradual shift to increased domestic consumption which is growing, not lagging. The real issue in China is a US and other importer issue which is weak to no growth in the US and Europe especially. The US needs to wake up and realize they are front and center of the weakness, not some passive observer. The recovery is hardly a recovery save Wall Street and housing where the mass of Federal Reserve liquidity ends up after going to TBTF banks. This has created a disconnect one should not ignore.
    Aug 26, 2015. 08:17 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    Given the Fed hasn't indicated it is raising rates and seems more inclined not to, a lot lower if they do. Even if they don't, it is increasingly obvious that the US is slowing down and can't avoid the global weakness. In fact, the US has exported the beginnings of a cyclical downturn as it shifts its manufacturing and commodity sectors overseas.

    Now that they have blown up, a downturn usually migrates to the service sector, transportations, and everything else. If this is the start of a cyclical downturn, the US will revisit a lot of the issues of the last downturn because they chose to not solve any of them and in many ways made them worse. Fannie and Freddie are bigger than ever, TBTF banks are also bigger and more dependent on federal Reserve easy liqidity, and derivatives have mushroomed.
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:17 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire For Retirement Income [View article]
    The premise of this is wrong, the Berkshire today is nothing like it was in the past. Today Berkshire looks , feels, and largely is a overly diversified conglomerate with weakening management. Conglomerates are one of the historically worst long term investments to invest in and Buffett as a value investor knows this.

    Even if you assume that it is not a conglomerate but more like a mutual fund, it also suffers economies of scale in that its size and weight make it harder and harder to outperform the market, especially since it is becoming more diversified every year. With little changing year to year, investing in a diversified portfolio that can easily offload bad positions without affecting the stock price seems a much more prudent choice.
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:12 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Signs Your Portfolio Isn't Ready For A Bear Market [View article]
    Sadly many investors these days have come to expect and even depend on annual gains and no losses. If this is your mindset then you should not be in the market or should own enough bonds and bank account deposits to earn enough to offset much if not all losses you take in the stock market. Sadly, too many believe that they can't or won't lose money in the market. This is patently untrue.
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Be Buying Stocks Right Now? [View article]
    Are stocks crashing? No they are going down. There is a difference.

    Do we know why stocks are going down? Yes, there is a fundamental unsustainable imbalance between market growth and profitability and the stock market. Despite that there are many who feel that the reason for the imbalance is still applicable and that the Federal Reserve, QE, and government will protect the market from reverting to historical norms.

    So should I sell? Stocks overly influenced or dependent of Federal Reserve and government support should be sold. However, switching them to stocks less influenced by zirp rates, QE, and government support may be wiser. Growth stocks that are growing still in a market that is not is a good bet.

    Should I increase my stock holding? Probably not. However, once the bottom is set you may wish to. Given the measured declines, this is not a panic sell off, so you may want to wait to make sure a bottom is hit. If the next leg of a downturn arrives after a small recovery, it could be much stronger and deeper than the first downturn.
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are The Distortions In The Stock Market And The Economy Catching Up With Us? [View article]
    There are also distortions in accounting for big banks as accounting rules were changed so that banks can hold properties at book value instead of recording face value losses as long as they don't sell them or lease them. This has created not just rotting unused homes across America, but rotten bank assets.

    Sadly, TBTF banks are claiming they are still too weak and dependent on these accounting rules and the zirpish rates to revert back to the way they were. Sadly the author is correct that there is no clean way to exit these perversions of accounting and capitalism than to make them absorb the effects of the losses as we revert back to normalcy.

    They will fight to the end and eventually probably threaten their own solvency again if such measures are revoked which is why the US should never backstop any private bank no matter how too big to succeed it gets.
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:51 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Bear Market Starting? Prepare To Be Mauled, Down And Up [View article]
    The selloff is so far pretty ordered. There is not the panic that exemplifies a crash yet. The author is right that volatility goes up and swings become very large in crashes. So far this selloff hasn't been marred by a huge collapse which tends to point to rational retracement given information more than a collapse. We will see if it erodes to ugliness.
    Aug 24, 2015. 07:35 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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