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Moon Kil Woong

 
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Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Are Leading Indicators Saying The Economy Is Accelerating? [View article]
    It would be helpful if the agencies that keep revising their indicator reports kept and displayed their originally terribly flawed results and the times they post them and display them graphically for all to see the way they do with revised reports. It's the current news compared to the current news that counts. After the last recession they blew through their old reports and magically discovered it started about 4 months earlier and revised them away meaning you would never have seen the downturn until it was in full swing just like you probably won't see the next one if you're relying on these indicators.
    Sep 27 12:31 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Indicator Correctly Warned About An Equity Pullback [View article]
    Junk bonds always over-react. Although I believe we are well overdue for a cyclical downturn I do not subscribe to the point that junk has led the way. Likewise small cap stocks have been showing weakness as well. In general, the lie which is increasingly robust growth in the US is fading and stimulus efforts have reached their brink and are no longer sustainable.

    This downturn will probably hit the end of the year or next year and is liable to be devastating due to the bubble blowing ways exhibited in the last downturn. Grow up Federal reserve, you're just making things worse. And politicians, learn constraint and stop trying to deny capitalism by injecting socialism and favoritism into a free economy in order to enrich yourselves.
    Sep 26 01:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Thursday's Sell-Off [View article]
    The government's intervention and belief that they will constantly save the day is the reason for the lack of market intellect in valuation these days which has led the market well beyond where it should be and the collapse of support will lead to an even worse crash similar to the housing bubble the Federal Reserve and government propagated.

    Intervention in the market by government and undue intervention by the Federal Reserve is the problem not the solution.
    Sep 25 10:34 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Am A Dividend Growth Investor. I Want Dividends, Growth, And Dividend Growth [View article]
    Indeed, buying and holding stock in your account and only paying tax on dividends is the right strategy. Unfortunately, many dividend stocks will be hit as interest rates rise and inflation takes hold. This abnormal monetary policy will be bad for equity holders as it unwinds. There is hope some stocks can offset the downturn by boosting dividends, but it may be offset by weak stock prices and declining margins.
    Sep 24 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Symmetry Medical: Surgical Maneuver Sets Up A Very Attractive Asymmetric Trade [View article]
    There is little proof Symmetry has the type of management capability to pull off its ambition and a lot to show it is running amuck. Indeed, if it is going to do well it would have been the last decade where health care costs rose astronomically thanks to an utter disconnect between cost and healthcare prices. Indeed, that trend will end as health care costs have risen to proportions that even make millionaires sweat.
    Sep 24 12:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Next Billion-Dollar Business [View article]
    I agree that the movie and music industry are going to face downward pressure on pricing. I also agree that streaming will replace traditional TV and radio and will be a better source of revenue than downloading. This will create increased emphasis on first to broadcast or make available in good quality rather than charging for storage and saving a file.

    Even so, Apple will have a tough time competing in the real media market which is premised on first to broadcast and impulse watching and requires true media presence rather than download rights.
    Sep 24 12:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing: Homeowner Vacancy Rates Vs. Starts [View instapost]
    Bad mortgages are still being made and rates are so low they won't cover defaults thanks to Fannie, Freddie, and the central bank. They were all bad actors last time, but this time they are worse thanks to unlimited backing from taxpayers and disregard for money creation now that the Federal Reserve synthetically makes liquidity without regards to any economic ramifications.

    If you doubt me, wait until the next property crash. Taxpayers will be on the hook for hundreds of billions. Already, the Federal reserve is technically bankrupt if they had to mark to market their balance sheet and Fannie and Freddie bonds. It will only get worse if they have to raise rates depressing their holdings values while depressing the housing market along with it.
    Sep 21 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Is Still Reforming [View article]
    China continues to move towards liberalization and capitalism. It is the US that's moving backwards putting real estate into Fannie and Freddie, State run organizations and creating a new level of guaranteed state banking implicitly backed by taxpayer money in which to dump central bank money to enrich the few without causing inflation (TBTF banks). This is the reason China's economy is expanding while the US economy isn't just like Europe and Japan which engage in excessive stimulus by the central bank which undermines capitalism and are overly socialized running massive public debt that disables the private sector.

    All these books and articles on China's eventual fall is only a diversion from focusing on how the US economy is utterly failing and why. The US is not reforming, rather it is back peddling and playing financially risky games that prevent the economy from adapting to the new economic realities. When taxpayer backed banks engage in buying assets and deprive its citizens from borrowing it is a recipe for not just a bubble, but utter disaster.

    The real estate, stock, bond, and derivatives market are increasingly built on this false investment of inevitably public backed misappropriation. When the economy crashes you will see how much risk the public must pay for it and why bank buying is not true supply and demand, especially with housing which allows them to skirt mark to market and dump their loans onto the Federal Reserve and Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
    Sep 21 12:16 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts defend Alibaba's valuation; Yahoo an activist target? [View news story]
    Alibaba's price is as rational as US internet stocks. And at least it is backed by an economy with real growth. If you feel Alibaba is overpriced it would be best to assume the US market is and get out of most of the US stock market.
    Sep 20 08:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anatomy Of A Market Bubble [View article]
    2 replies to commenters.

    1) Debasement is not the issue here so much because of the misallocation. As stated by the author most of it remains in banks or goes to finance a out of control federal debt which would choke the market dry save for the fact we finance so much internationally and we export inflation internationally. Indeed it is correct to assume debasement because money is debased, however, bulging bank balance sheets and the refusal for them to lend more than offsets this for now.

    2) The money wet into 2 things, TBTF banks to stay solvent and to hold assets they should have been forced to sell at a loss which is why there are rotting homes even as home prices rise.

    The bull market has been driven by turning capitalism upside down making capital virtually worthless and borrowing so cheap its idiotic not to borrow save for the fact there is no real growth in demand everywhere.

    This has led to a bull market encouraging capital to take inordinate risks to preserve its value in a zombie economy. The durability of the market is based only on the idiocracy of the Federal Reserve and the government's interest in spending what it doesn't have. That lasts a long time but the longer it runs the worse it gets, ergo severe downturns where even the government can't do anything because it spent it all before the downturn.

    The market reacts severely late. I think a clear top is forming economically because the Federal Reserve and government are becoming scared at the fact it is taking more and more to keep the economy stalled at this low rate. However, the market won't realize it until next year, the earlier the better.

    The argument to keep sticking your neck out and doing the same thing because the trend persists is a good way to lose a lot of money. I suggest pulling back like so many intelligent smart money has been doing recently. Calling the market is imprecise on the bull side too, which is why pulling back is advised.

    Great article explaining what is clearly obvious to many educated people. The astounding fact is still how clueless the market remains and how oblivious participants are that capitalism is getting undermined, destroying the most basic market signaling.
    Sep 20 08:26 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Won't Change Its Language? REALLY!? [View article]
    We need this too. In reality the world needs productive monetary creation not school kid economic cheats and lies.
    Sep 17 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Won't Change Its Language? REALLY!? [View article]
    Yes, that's the terrible effect of QE and zirp policy that make money without corresponding goods or services. On top of that, it encourages people not to save. In effect it turns capitalism on its head and replaces it with a race to embrace debt. This is the race to the bottom that so many speak of.
    Sep 17 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Won't Change Its Language? REALLY!? [View article]
    Thanks for the response. Sadly, the rest of the world is embracing QE to cheat capitalism as well. After all, it seems to be working fine for Japan (not). Given they all compete against one another the effect is like letting steroids be used in the Olympics. Everyone will use them and the games will be ruined.
    Sep 17 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: The Era Of $99 Windows Tablets Is Here [View article]
    True Windows 8 is a huge failure. Even so Apple's sticking to high end will yield gradual marketshare decline without remarkable tech evolution which is sadly missing from Apple. Microsoft will eventually get a decent OS. Google Chrome is currently the biggest threat to Apple's tablet dominance.
    Sep 17 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    Those that do best in recessions are those who hold cash reserves or banks that can get liquidity for free from the Federal Reserve. That's why they end up owning more and more of the assets of America when the economy drops. The issue is, after the drop finally hits bottom (don't buy until you're sure) one must part with their cash and get into the market. Likewise, it is best to get mostly out after a very long up cycle like we are in now.

    Although you can survive with a buy and hold strategy, unless you are doing it to save on taxes, its far from optimal.
    Sep 17 12:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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