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Moon Kil Woong  

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Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Oil: False Rally Or True Bottom? - Looking Back To 2008/9 [View article]
    Interesting. I'm not sure how applicable this scenario is to the last, but I can say, the amount of reserves well exceeds any prior downturn both in quantity and days of excess. In reality, the only thing that can save oil at this point is a mass increase in demand fueled by a global strong economy. The reality seems to be the reverse thanks to central bank overstimulation for years that spiked overproduction, excess misallocation of resources, extended overleveraged position, encouraged bank gambling including hoarding assets like gold for price appreciation, and prevented a normal economic down cycle. We are now looking at a repeat of a very ugly downturn with the Federal Reserve tapped out, the Middle East and Russia in ruins, the EU in turmoil, and TBTF banks even bigger than last recession with massive positions that could erode quite quickly given they are built on Federal Reserve encouragement to gamble in stocks and a general ok by regulators (the Federal Reserve) to stuff their black box with even more derivatives than the last recession.

    Oil is only the first signs of trouble. It will have a second fallout when the rest of the downturn hits.
    Feb 8, 2015. 11:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM To Deliver Inexpensive 200-Mile EV 2 Years Ahead Of Tesla [View article]
    The charging stations are financed through taxpayer money. They should be standardized so any electric vehicle can use them. They are financed by us.
    Feb 8, 2015. 10:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Beautiful New Greek Government Is Screwed [View article]
    LOL, Greece's government is not beautiful or new even if it acts as mindless as many models.

    As for bond absurdities, sadly what you learned about government debt being the safest and virtually risk free is no longer true and the fact that it is perceived this way has been being misused in new and ignoble ways by the governments and treasuries of the world with the US being a prime case.

    I hope kids these days are taught that there is a real problem worse than deflation when bond rates are below the risk of default and can't cover the cost of the equity they consume. Even though such rates theoretically encourage reckless borrowing (which is not as good for the economy as administrations and the treasury make it sound), they discourage loans unless the cost of default is equally borne by the government or taxpayer. Thus Fannie and Freddie now dominate home lending. Likewise, banks are hesitant to loan even though they get mountains of liquidity, and businesses even though the treasury is forcing TBTF banks to gamble in stocks won't take the risk to expand their businesses and instead borrow at artificially low rates to buy back their stocks.

    Greece's default for most people has always seemed like a question of not if, but when. For the former ruling party of Greece, it seems fitting the when should be when the new government realizes running government with a massive deficit and debt is not fun at all, an no one is about to willingly give them a write-off given their failure the last time they got one.
    Feb 8, 2015. 12:06 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook spends estimated $400M on industrial park [View news story]
    LOL, he is trying to keep up with Apple in blowing money. Given few tech companies want to spend a lot on tech these days since they all know the semi and tech cycle are almost up, what better way to spend it than new digs and a nicer office. Especially Google and Apple who will also get hit with potentially a hopeful launch of Windows 10.

    Of course, I think spending capital in a tech company is a terrible return on capital for shareholders that buy and hold a stock at over 20x earnings, but I guess anything goes these days. It's better than throwing it down the garbage.
    Feb 7, 2015. 11:53 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Farmer Mac: Super Profitable But Cheap Due To GSE Aversion [View article]
    Actually AGMs increased work with banks make sense. Before farms were more stable and were good payers thus banks wanted to keep these loans because defaults were low and they could take and resell the farms that went belly up. Thanks to an assortment of problems including getting water, having their crops messed up with government subsidies and other actions that encourage corm or other crops until the market collapses on them from them, and collectives/unions that demand they put their crops into a collective to sell farms are doing much poorer now. It is a statement of the worsening value of farm loans that Farmers Mac is bigger just like its a disastrous statement about housing that Fannie and Freddie dominate our housing market.

    I'd be vary cautious about investment in any quazi-public funding company. They are generally a blight on America and tend to be used to the point where their business model is to run massive losses at too low of rate to cover risk, enrich banks buy removing risk from them and placing them on taxpayers, and funding people and/or companies who can't afford it at rates that don't cover defaults.

    Although the author is right that Farmer Mac has avoided the pitfalls of other quazi-government garbage, it seems inevitable that eventually it will get stacked and used until there is little of value. If you are connected enough to get out before their business goes to the garbage great, but for most, they will not have the time to see that it is set for a blow up like Fannie or Freddie Mac. Few will see it.
    Feb 7, 2015. 11:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • West Coast ports shut down for weekend amid continuing labor conflict [View news story]
    LOL, and now you wonder why the economy can't get traction. Undoubtedly, a lot of the January upturn in orders was to get through clearance before ports shut down. We will see how much in Feb. and March.

    The January jobs report was interesting though. A few snowflakes bloomed with energy's drop. Unfortunately, a normal recovery blossoms on weak to lower prices after a downturn across virtually all goods and services. Maybe this is enough, however, too late in the cycle could stimulate a new downturn rather than an upturn.

    Feb 6, 2015. 11:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Beware The Bounce [View article]
    I tend to agree. The simple fact is there is overproduction, a depleting amount of places to put it, and weak handed speculators and banks that already booked their gains and now just want out from making tankers go round in circles month after month. The issue is increasingly a physical issue. I don't see a rebound until at least there is more oil consumed than pumped. Many feel the inventories must also drop, which is a higher bar.

    Those pumping the oil recovery are those wanting to make money on their long position or want to dump their physical inventory which was 6 months ago considered an investment whereas now its an increasingly bad asset that costs a considerable sum to keep serviced.
    Feb 6, 2015. 11:45 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Party Is Likely Over For U.S. Treasury Bonds [View article]
    LOL Janet tightening, dream on. There better be gobs of inflation because the only way she'll tighten is if she's forced to.
    Feb 6, 2015. 11:35 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Versus Starbucks: Income Or Growth? [View article]
    It's more overpriced with future slowing growth and margins ahead vs. lower priced with clearly declining growth and margins. Both will have a hard time fighting to keep their market share and position with McDonalds being clearly the worst off. McDonalds really should cut their dividend and margins and improve the quality and value of their offerings. So looking at McDonalds isn't really a income stock and Starbucks growth will most likely come at the cost of margins.
    Feb 6, 2015. 11:23 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Your Alpha Is My Beta [View article]
    Great article and great article naming. I hope you get many readers given the fact tat so many investors are misled by alpha baloney when most of it equates to just taking a lot more risk for higher returns. This works exceptionally good when you're playing with other's money, get commission, and don't have to pay on losses.
    Feb 5, 2015. 12:14 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mama Said There Would Be Days Like These [View article]
    I think the title should be months like these not days. The global downturn has not even reached a phase where the mainstream public acknowledge it and oil's initial price drop is just the top of the iceberg. The rest of it remains all the reserves floating around the world which was stored for speculators who thought the price would rise as long as they bought it up. The downside is, what to do with it when the price declines. Sadly there isn't even enough room to store it all let alone use it. Guys, looks like you'll be holding your position a long time and paying the shipping cost as well.
    Feb 5, 2015. 12:08 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Word Sums Up Google's Problem [View article]
    Try duckduckgo. Sadly Alta Vista got acquired by Yahoo and is no longer around.
    Feb 5, 2015. 12:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Will War Soon Be Over? [View article]
    It is funny that while the war for gold raged the speculation just moved to oil and other assets to run up. Indeed, maybe or maybe not, someone was pushing down gold and silver but, if they did it solved nothing. The speculation happened in other assets instead and the catastrophe from their run up we are only now seeing.
    Feb 4, 2015. 11:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Lecture On Yield [View article]
    Good article. I agree that managing through the business cycle is the best strategy. I generally agree with this because to do so one must not look at returns and yield alone but also risk involved. Right now I believe risk exceeds returns in the stock market and most bonds. This of course leaves a lot of people scratching their heads. Where to put your money. Well if you ask the Federal Reserve, their aim seems to have been to make it a liability to have money, as in you can't make a risk adjusted return that will grow equal to investment and thus should spend it or gamble in a given asset (preferably stocks).

    How long people will endure a system bent on discouraging savings because it loses value faster than the interest you can gain having it is a question socialist counties usually deal with. Hmmmm. Of course there is a way out, gain higher returns taking risk that higher than inflation like stocks, commodities, etc. We will see how that works out in the next downturn. It certainly didn't work out in the last downturn.

    Your real return should be counted from the last downturn to the next one. I surmise on this many chirping now will not end up anywhere near breakeven.
    Feb 4, 2015. 11:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stratasys Collapse Asks If 3D Printing Boom Has Busted [View article]
    Anytime a CEO talks about their non-GAAP earnings get the hell out. Sure Salesforce and a few other big companies get away selling an accounting lie, which is what it is, however this practice should be seriously discouraged and won't happen until investors refuse to buy the bull and get burned for good reason if they do.
    Feb 4, 2015. 11:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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