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Moon Kil Woong  

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Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Chevron And Exxon Mobil: Swirling Near The Drain? [View article]
    This is just the mentality that will cause the market price to plunge when dividends are cut. In reality, dividends are not a good use of money for these companies, especially with rising debt, falling prices, and higher production and discovery costs.

    It takes a while for people to realize this is not sustainable and the author makes a very strong argument that this will end sooner rather than later. Logic wins over blind allegiance every time.
    Aug 20, 2015. 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar stocks sell off as oil, energy stocks, Canadian Solar get hit [View news story]
    Sadly the market misunderstands and is selling off solar for the wrong reasons. No matter how low oil prices go there is increasing reasons that solar will still be around and even will be a market that grows. As it sells off and gets entangled in the dumping look for plays in solar.

    One thing to be cautious of is solar companies exposed to debt repayment from their clients. If a severe downturn does occur the defaults could make a giant hole in their balance sheet.
    Aug 20, 2015. 03:22 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Incredible Chain Of Lending [View article]
    With the Federal Reserve and government backing TBTF banks that are the source of much of the ridiculousness and the government backing Fannie, Freddie, and student loans, I don't see credit default collapse as a major problem right now; however it does structurally weaken the entire infrastructure insofar that they will be susceptible and unable to do much in downturns beyond what they already have done. Additionally, it does nothing to deal with the weakened overleveraged participants in the economy who when stressed will not only potentially default, but will be unable to grow the economy, spend, or deal with catastrophes leaving it as a burden to others and government.

    This will only increase the move to not spend and hunker down. Unfortunately the mess that caused the last downturn has been far from solved and is in many ways worse now that capitalism has been weakened by socialist creations and housing and student loans has become a state run enterprise bordering on the obscene without regards to fundamental capitalist principals.
    Aug 20, 2015. 03:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bear Market Has 2 Phases [View article]
    Agreed a good article and insightful. Even before stocks start falling in certain sectors economic signals show weakness to slowdown. This is clearer after the fact because of all the revisions after the fact of government statistics. Like the last downfall, the government statistics did not show much of a hint of a downturn until after the fact when the downturn became apparent more than 4 months prior.

    One should take not of this fact because the same thing is liable to happen this time, except the bubble they have blown with zirp and QE is so big even they can't mask the weakness in exports, imports, shipping, commodity prices, and retail sales. The question today is not if the market is showing signs of weakness but where is it showing signs of stability. Likewise, many of the market players are in the market for three reasons 1) to please the Federal Reserve including TBTF banks practically forced to be invested in the market and 2) others who are keeping some of their money in the market in case the Federal Reserve decides to devalue currency overnight making a synthetic run up in asset prices 3) because the Federal Reserve's policies have designed a market where there is really no safe place to put your money and even fewer places that pays more than the risk you are taking.
    Aug 20, 2015. 12:13 AM | 47 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Barron's Catching A Falling Knife? [View article]
    Thanks, haha at least I can be eternally youthful on Seeking Alpha, lol. I thank you and all my other thousands of followers.
    Aug 19, 2015. 11:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's expects significant sales lift from all-day breakfast [View news story]
    What a joke. All day breakfast won't solve their problems. It's just another investor gimmick to show they're doing something about their poor performance which they aren't. They need to up their quality and appeal fast or they will lose the whole next generation of adults and even kids meals toys won't cover their lack of quality or healthiness.
    Aug 19, 2015. 11:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC minutes: Getting closer to rate hike [View news story]
    Yawn, like anyone didn't expect that. Like some said, certainly not before the election now because the Federal Reserve is now a political beast. They certainly aren't acting based on economics given their complete rejection of Keynesian theory.
    Aug 19, 2015. 11:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • St. Louis Fed official takes on Bernanke-era memes [View news story]
    Agreed, in fact looking at the data shows that fewer and fewer market participants are believing the fed will raise rates and are raising rates without them as they should to account for further risk not just of higher interest rates but higher defaults.

    Our economic engine doesn't look too good the deeper you dig, from falling commodities prices to falling imports and exports, then falling shipping, falling purchases and falling discount prices. If you are judging inflation through retail store pricing you're missing the boat and the reason why malls are going under.
    Aug 18, 2015. 08:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Soon To Be Tested Hard By The Growing Threat From YouTube [View article]
    I agree. YouTube must do a lot to compete. That said Netflix will feel heat from almost everyone because everyone is trying to move to Internet distribution and sales. In the end, companies are better off selling product placement and other forms of advertising than trying to restrict people watching their content because restricting them is somewhat self defeating.

    Perhaps only go after people who post your content without a given advertisement embedded or something.
    Aug 18, 2015. 07:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is How Japanese Suffer From Failed Growth Policies [View article]
    Like all zirp policies and QE, the fundamental problem is that it will inevitably end and rip your economy to shreds making it very hard for anyone not to save and hoard as much as you can before the final blow since after such strategies the government has nothing left to fall on to help against such a economic disaster.

    Worse yet, such actions prevent any meaningful growth and prevents the market from sorting out and finding pockets of economic strength and areas of weakness and correcting itself. The author is 100% correct. Japan is getting much worse off as we speak.
    Aug 18, 2015. 07:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares Of Intermap Are Poised To Triple [View article]
    We will see when the stock slips back to being thinly traded. It is an interesting story. We will see if the technology has traction and applicability outside its current scope.
    Aug 18, 2015. 06:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Barron's Catching A Falling Knife? [View article]
    The reason why the oil market is way down and oversupply is rampant is partially because of the misallocation of resources thanks to overly lax monetary policy. Because of this, I don't see the oversupply ending anytime soon since the lax behavior has lasted so long. If you want to see a real selloff wait until we hit a recession.

    As of now there is still companies sitting on millions of barrels of oil in inventory hoping the price doesn't fall again and keeping it as assets to finance their debt. That all ends when growth goes negative.
    Aug 17, 2015. 10:12 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is SolarCity The Right Solar Company To Buy? [View article]
    Does Solar City have insurance against default for all the loans they give to their clients? If a recession hits and they are hit with bad loans does the model and profits evaporate?
    Aug 17, 2015. 05:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Chinese Consumer And Apple: A Match Made In The Temple Of Heaven [View article]
    Despite the positives, China is now losing marketshare in China and will be relegated to the high end of the market. This is not bad for them but, the great expectations of Apple in China needs to be lowered down to reality.

    Like all markets, China holds considerable risk and downside. It's not a given they will remain the hottest brand on the high end there.
    Aug 14, 2015. 06:36 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far From Normal Are We? [View article]
    The problem with money supply growth is the fact that debt has mushroomed even further over time and as growth comes to a halt the ability to repay the debt becomes more and more impossible for debtors to pay. This will inevitably lead to contraction and potentially deflation even as some try to press for expansion by mandating burger flippers get paid $15 an hour.

    Deflation is possible, but the federal Reserve fails to notice that deflation is not the enemy, no growth with highly leveraged players is. Even with no deflation the leveraged collapses once it becomes apparent to everyone a high percentage of them can not pay and start defaulting. Then interest rates rise even if the Fed keeps a zirp rate because it rises to cover the default risk more than the time value of money.
    Aug 14, 2015. 06:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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