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Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Japan's Outlook: Rising Sun or Rising Rates? [View article]
    Undoubedly the governments QE, 0% rate policy, and massive stimulus prolonged Japan's downturn (perhaps at the cost of blunting it). Now that the US is doing the same will we get the same results. Probably not.

    Japan can finance almot all of its debt domestically where we can't. That probably means we will be forced to raise rates like Japan is confronting just now whether or not we are still in a economic rut.
    Nov 16 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are the Arguments for Privileging Debt? [View article]
    The government needs more taxes not less. This tax deduction will be offset by what? Higher taxpayer taxes most likely. When will we stop rewarding risk taking. In no small part tax deductions on homebuying tips the scale for many to borrow a lot and buy houses. And a fine mess that gets us into. Do we really need more of the same?
    Nov 16 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Roubini on Unemployment: 'The Worst Is Yet to Come' [View article]
    What we need is real jobs, not temporary government contrived or porkus ones nor government jobs that add cost and bureaucracy to an already overly bureaucratic and cost inefficient business environment.

    Real jos means jobs in the private sector not the public sector. Until people realize this the lose 5 private sector job for 1 public sector one and do a political victory dance will continue. The Obama we made 40,000 jobs at a cost of $247,000 per head boasting made me sick to my stomach. It is indicative as to why this down cycle can't right itself. It can't because capitalism is being supressed. However, for the sake of argument I'll play their game.

    If you want to add workers to the federal government I would suggest you add a few thousand people to monitor the financial sector as they gamble away the rest of the government's handouts (telling them to stop it is asking too much from the government). At least then when they bankrupt the US again it will be easier to press charges (meaning the SEC gets to extort a few million from them and then let them off scott free like BoA).

    What a world... No wonder I'm cynical.
    Nov 16 06:39 AM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar vs. Yuan: Exchange Rates Aren't the Problem. Or the Solution [View article]
    China's vast savings of it's population is centrallized in 1-2% of the population that has most everything already. Their auto industry has more than a 100% tax unless you buy a Chinese made one. Their LEDs are 66% cheaper because they refuse to regulate or enforce patent laws. Their clothes are 8x cheaper because, well they make them. 90% of their comuters use illegal or trial versions of anti-virus software, OS and word processing, and the like.

    Indeed the author is right that the imbalance goes way beyond currency. The WTO has failed to enforce a single rule of its own on China and the US fails to enforce any rules either. Perhaps that's why they get along so well.

    The reasons at to how this crooked relationship works is all to clear. The US is dependent on China to cover up the Federal Reserve's blatant and purposeful spewing of excess money supply into banks to enrich them and the government's desire to enrich their friends annually with their out of control deficit spending so they don't have to suffer the wrath of voters for doing so. As for the WTO and China, China is simply too big too ignore and too big to follow the rules (sort of like derviatives are to the financial community).

    The chances you get China to level the playing field while it remains the only global engine of growth (even if it is driven through a giant liquidity bubble similar to the US) are just about zero. Thus Obama's visit is pure tokenism the same way Bush Jr.'s was. If we got down to arguing over real issues it would go something like this:

    US: You are being unfair.
    China: You are being unfair.
    US: You are devaluing your currency.
    China: You are supressing your currency.
    US: You are stealing all business and not buying our stuff.
    China: You are giving us junk paper and using us to keep your inflation low. Fix your own country before telling me what to do.
    US: Ok then don't tell us how we run our monetary policy. If you want to complain about currency debasement float your own currency.
    China: Ok so the status quo it is
    US: I suppose so. Do you want to talk about trade barriers?
    China: No.
    US: I didn't think so.
    China: Do you want to talk about a new reserve currency?
    US: No.
    China: I didn't think so.
    Nov 16 06:22 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saving the Global Economy: Try a Dollar Peg to the Renminbi [View article]
    Yes parity with the Reminb where it is 50-100% higher would be fine and great. The problem is how to convince China to do this and how to get the US to stomach the inflation caused by the normalization of currencies.

    Like most economic disparities, a collapse is neccesary to reset things straight. The problem is we got the collapse but the power that be don't want a reset (because it is essentially the same as an austerity program). Thus we are stuck in an eternal cycle of collapses caused by the continuation of a badly out of whack economic relationship demanding the US to overconsume and bleed itself dry in exchange for low inflation.
    Nov 16 05:51 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time for the U.S. Economy to Reindustrialize [View article]
    If the US relied on domestic production again we would instantly see the effects of the Federal Reserve's constant and drastic policies of exploding the money supply to fuel false growth decade after decade. It is far of this inflation that keeps everyone chomping at the bit thinking just a few more years of cheap overseas goods and lax monetary policy will do the trick. The only trick it really does is make jobs, the value of our money, and our economy disapear.

    China is not a lone participant in this. They are merely the fulfillment house for the Federal Reserve wanting to play the economic hero year in and year out with easy money.
    Nov 15 11:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Government Doesn't Listen to Reason [View article]
    First off the FDIC's only credible solution to their underfunded system is to raise premiums just like any insurer. Phil is right in mentioning that this is a sham.

    Even so, I like Sheila Bair in general. She has been more on point with reality than the SEC, Federal Reserve, and Treasury during the Obama and Bush Jr. Administration. For that she gets my respect. She also is 100% correct that the collapse of the too big to fail financials should have gone through the FDIC. Sadly, she is way too even handed for the bankers to ever feel safe with handling their mess. They would much rather have Paulson declare the end of the world so they can get anything they want and everyone can approve the Federal Reserve abandoning all legal precedent and print its own money using quantitative easing.

    This catastrophe certainly has not been wasted on those trying to steal both money and power.
    Nov 15 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer UNconfidence Numbers Disappoint [View article]
    Anyone voting for tapping TARP except to insure the solvency of the FDIC should lose their seat in office. The same goes with approving a second stimulus. The first one was a bad enough fiasco and wasn't actually the first stimulus (Bush Jr. did a tax cut stimulus that also largely failed).
    Nov 15 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Two Good Weeks Constitute a Rally? [View article]
    It's always good to hold good stocks, especially if beta is low. However, since most people are happy just to keep up with the indexes I would advise caution. If the Federal Reserve stops the money pump even for a second it can spell disaster for equities. There is every reason to feel that they might even with Bernanke in power (concern for more dollar depreciation in 2010, demands by Congress and other to explain their QE policies and disclose their holdings, rising gold and commodities which have sucked out all the export advantages of a weak dollar since the final trade deficit expanded not contracted, and higher and higher pressure on bond rates due to growing unease by overseas investors). Some would say tightening money supply is way overdue including of course myself.

    Even I have felt is important to pare my gains last Thursday. If you want to catch the top in a market run up, be prepared for the sell-off.
    Nov 15 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reasons Behind Our 'Stupidity Economy' [View article]
    It is not just the Federal debt that is too large. It's the Federal government. Rather than save us by making more bureaucracy and then making it a more expensive bureaucracy, they are killing business and poisioning the wellspring of our prosperity (our businesses, our currency, and capitalism).

    The W or V or other is irrelevant if you don't have a capitalist economy left when all is said and done.
    Nov 15 10:35 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Government Spending Binge Weighing on Markets and Consumers [View article]
    I'm glad someone still sees spending as a burden on the economy and not a blessing. With depleted coffers and the public asking what comes next after the 2009 stimulus winds down the full impact of stupid behavior for the last 9 years will come home to roost.

    I miss the good old days of Bush Sr. and Clinton when money was still money and a budget was still a budget. Things might have not been grand or glamorous those days, but at least they were stable. My how the mighty have fallen.
    Nov 15 10:13 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Government Practices Restrict Jobs Growth [View article]
    Even if the US didn't have a mortgage meltdown the trend for many years has been down. In the end people can say that exporting manufacturing is ok. It is ok if our demand falls or if we can offset the losses with exports to other countries. The fact that we export production and increase demand with no balance by way of exporting value added goods will always lead to economic ruination. This will always come after the decimation of domestic jobs and the devaluation of the country's currency due to running constant trade imbalances.

    The Federal deficit is just topping on a series of very bad economic policies. The trend is obvious and well underway. Why we can't and won't change has more to do with our lack of moral and political will than a lack of ability.

    The US hasn't been business friendly the last 8 years of Republican rule and is not shaping up to be business friendly under Obama either. That is why the government pinch hitter has to standing in to provide money and consumption to the economy. Unfortunately, the government's track record is not good or consistent. Where the market's are looking for a home run they should be expecting a bunt as the best case scenario.
    Nov 15 05:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The FHA Is Broke [View article]
    FHA is already below their mandated 2% and most likely are fudging the numbers. More and more the financial industry is moving to only cash flows. As long as they have cash flow they are able to stay alive even if they have no net worth and no net positive assets whatsoever. The accounting merely becomes a charade.
    Nov 14 01:08 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Exports: Can Emerging Markets Replace the U.S. Consumer? [View article]
    No other country in the world would put up with persistent trde deficits as large or as long as the US has. Actually for the US to allow it to go on was and is sheer folly. If it goes on until it collapses it will be sheer folly on China's part too since all their work will turn into worthless paper when the US implodes financially.

    To think 3rd world countries can make up for the US is ignorance. However, 3rd world countries are very fertile ground for rich countries to rob them of their natural resources. China seems to have taken notice and aim there.
    Nov 14 12:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett and Gates at Columbia – The Markets Have Bottomed! [View article]
    Buffet is kind of contradicting his belief. Not only does he preach value and buying good stocks good or bad. He also preaches that you don't look at the market, you look at companies. More and more Buffet is becoming a economic cycle guy.

    Whether or not he falls into the same trap he preached about when he was against playing cycles and only value remains to be seen. Personally, I appreciate the old Buffet not the one trying to make profit off of government bailouts and calling the end of the recession over and over again. I wonder when he will publish another "it's a great time to buy stock" article. Maybe after he buys into Goldman again. Maybe he will someday write it's a great time to sell after he dumps Goldman. That would make his on the same level as the con artists stock promoters. I dearly hope he never goes there. A good name is a great force for making people recognize value instantly, but it is also a terrible thing to ruin.
    Nov 14 07:15 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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