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Moon Kil Woong  

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Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Can We Trust Friday's Payroll Numbers? [View article]
    Thanks etfdesk.com. Indeed the initial BLS numbers are, by their own revisions, always skewed towards a better number. Seeing that they are uniformly so, revision towards a more accurate number would not be so hard to do, except that it's politically unpalatable.

    I suppose the reason it remains so is similar to the reason we keep substitution in the inflation index. We are not looking for accuracy here. We are looking for political expediency, or more accurately lying and falsifying numbers to please those in power who'd rather manipulate data than face reality.
    Feb 4, 2010. 05:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One of These Trends Is Not Like the Others [View article]
    It would appear that the market is hedging against deflationary tendencies against a backdrop of Fed QE tightening. However, the bloated proposed US Federal government budget for 2011 and another $80 billion stimulus hidden as a jobs package before even the last stimulus ends makes you pause for contemplation about any hopes for avoiding hyper inflation if the real economy (you know, the ever shrinking private sector) ever stops deleveraging.

    How can you bet on deflation with a mad hatter Federal Reserve chairman like Bernanke and a pack of cards Congress led by the queen of red ink? It makes the charts seem implausible.
    Feb 4, 2010. 05:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Goldman Sachs Hates Marking to Market [View article]
    If the market is not to determine prices then who should. Does GS really think that there is no one better than they to determine absolute value. This is a complete slap in the face of the capitalist system. Utter shame!
    Feb 4, 2010. 01:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We're Going Bankrupt, Put Simply [View article]
    As you can see Obama has raised once again his federal deficit projections and then said he is cutting. Why doesn't he stick to his 2009 projected spending plans and deficit? How can he call his budget savings when it's actually a federal spending increase and more debt?

    Say no to any spending that is not offset by cuts.
    Feb 3, 2010. 12:08 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How the Teamsters Successfully Played the CDS Market [View article]
    Hmmm I don't particularly like either side of this coin. Goldman and the unions are big bullies. I feel no sympathy for either in most cases. Undoubtedly, there was probably enough blame to go around. I just hope the taxpayer mysteriously doesn't end up with bill.
    Feb 3, 2010. 12:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Continue to Soften [View article]
    I think it's positive if people are shying away from buying brand name apparel, etc. in exchange for generics and affordable substitute items. It shows signs of fiscal sanity for once. It's not the price you pay but the quantity and quality. As far as I can tell Americans are generally paying less for the same amount of goods.

    A return to the lax spending and zero savings is the last thing we want even though Wall Street and Washington have it in their minds that this is good. If everyone had a heart attack and had to have coronary surgury and pay for it with a credit card it would be a tragedy. Yet the market would see it as a great uptick in GDP and sales.

    GDP and sales doesn't accurately reflect Americans heath and prosperity the way some would have you think it does. In the end follow Adam Smith's logic. It's Americans ability to produce that determines wealth. This includes goods, services, inventions, new methodologies, etc. Sadly we are increasingly delegating the very essence of our wealth to others and calling it good.

    Don't be fooled. America needs to get back to basics.
    Feb 3, 2010. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Trust Pending Home Sales Data [View article]
    You forgot 6, 7, 8. 6: Pending sales tend to fall through when the buyer backs out because they see the prices of housing around them fall further, making the one they were going to buy unattractive. Thus one sale becomes bad for another. I think we call this a vicious cycle.

    The 7th is a function of the whole problem to start with: The buyers these days are heavily flippers. Increasingly the flippers are finding it hard to live off anything buy foreclosures and bank auctions. They can only buy and rent out so much before all their capital is tied up. Thus they are happy to buy the lock up properties in pending games in hopes someone comes and buys their old properties, which is happening less and less. In some cases they can't even get a decent renter. Poor flippers. Go back to the sea before the sharks eat all your money in interest, taxes, and transaction fees.

    Thus you can see why it's hard for a regular Joe to sell their house. The buyers increasingly only put in bids they have no intention of executing on and sit back and hope you forclose. A house unrented it a owner who will go underwater sooner. They are so optimistic hoping and waiting for you to go broke.

    8th and last is that most houses on the market are often transhed for being abandoned for so long or the owner not having enough to fix up the place to spec like on the home fixer upper shows. It is hard not to find a house free of termites and the plumbing and electrical up to code. No wonder people are still wanting to buy the new jammed up townhomes and condos even though they are terrible investments. For real buyers, it's just not worth the hassle buying a money pit.

    And that's the main problem with the housing market.
    Feb 3, 2010. 11:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Hearts Fannie and Freddie [View article]
    The high end of the market (over $700k) works fine. It didn't massively tank in this downturn like the low end. Why? Because it is wonderfully free of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's deleterious effects. People who can't afford to buy Jumbo loans don't.

    The mechanism for a housing industry free of these two bloated entities is in place. The problem is that these bloated giants and the parasites feeding off of them, including the TBTF banks, want a free and easy channel to funnel the lifeblood of taxpayers labors to go on forever. Can you blame them. All work, no play, makes the banks a dull pay.
    Feb 3, 2010. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Treasury Rates Must Go Up [View article]
    I think the reverse when I see the graph. Government spending must go down. Even if interest rates rise it will solve nothing except make our debt payments that much larger. Which will make our interest rates rise again.

    I think it is becoming an increasing on or off choice. A rotten economy and low inflation or a recovery and very high inflation followed by a rotten economy thanks to failures by Congress to reign in spending and the Federal Reserve by cheating and printing money it didn't have through QE.

    Will they ever learn before they ruin the economy? Well they didn't before they threw it into the Great Recession. So I would tend to say no.
    Feb 3, 2010. 11:28 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Bank Lending: Will Contraction Continue? [View article]
    Sadly all the gains from consumers unwinding and people paying off home mortgages have been offset by the government's massive deficit spending. People still need to unwind, but this time the government is in the same boat as consumers. They both ate way too much debt.

    As for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They must cease taking bank debt and putting it on taxpayers shoulders. As long as they remain, a viable housing market can not develop and non-government real estate lending can not replace it.
    Feb 2, 2010. 10:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Home Ownership Rates Continue to Fall [View article]
    There is nothing wrong with renting, especially if it helps you live within your means. The push to drive up home ownership is not for the interest of those getting them, it is for those who want people to over-leverage themselves. Once this is realized you start to see how the machine that got America in trouble works.
    Feb 2, 2010. 09:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ISM: Good News or Just a Blip? [View article]
    Yes everyone is scratching their heads over wonderful growth with no increase in salaries or employment. There is two words to explain it, devaluation and government jobless spending. And that breeds inflation and more joblessness.
    Feb 2, 2010. 09:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Bigger, Better (?) Government [View article]
    The government knows no word called excess or restraint. We are talking to the deaf and dumb when we ask them to control spending. As far as I know forget the Democrats or Republicans, only libertarians remain as the last bastion of limited government.
    Feb 2, 2010. 09:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Defining the Nature of a Greek Bailout [View article]
    It's about time the US also realizes that they can not afford to pay for, bailout, and finance the rest of the world as well. We pay billions every year to a multitude of countries that should not be given until we are more solvent.

    It is true that doing currency swaps with shaky countries is good to perpetuate the dependence on US dollar reserves, and disaster aid is great, but plain old annual military aid packages and assistance to foreign counties that never ends is just wrong as long as there is a homeless American willing to work.
    Feb 2, 2010. 08:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is a New Bear Market Beginning in China? [View article]
    China accepting lower growth in an effort to curb excesses is laudable. Perhaps thery can teach our socialist government a bit about capitalism.
    Feb 2, 2010. 04:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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