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Moon Kil Woong

 
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  • Sharks Circling the Galleon Galleon [View article]
    LOL knowing Galleon for what it is, it is probably shorting its own positions as it pares it's positions. Talk about great inside information lol. Now they just need a bit more bad news to really clean up.
    Oct 20 10:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Bubble Illusion [View instapost]
    If you add in maintenance and insurance you will understand why real eastate over the long term should be treated as a lifestle choice more than an investment. There have been many studies showing that real estate underperforms all asset classes over time, not including if you never pay down principal and take 2nd and 3rd mortgages. Then I think all you can do is compare it to rent because that's essentially all you are doing.
    Oct 20 09:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada: No Early Rate Hike [View article]
    Unlike the US, banks in Canada are solvent and people are clamoring to invest there for financial security (not to mention lots of buying into gold, oil, and gas there). It's the US that needs to hike rates first (sooner not later) to stem commodity inflation and dollar depreciation. The cannucks are doing just fine.
    Oct 20 09:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Myth of the Strong Dollar Policy [View article]
    A weak dollar isn't in our best interest as long as the RMB is pegged to the US $ which it is. I wonder how long it will take for the Federal Reserve to get that fact through their thick skulls. I hope it comes before the dollar drops (any your assets might I remend everyone) another 15% without anything to show for it but higher commodities prices, looming inflationary pressures, and a strong incentive for companies to give up trying to sell to poor Americans and trying to peddle everything to Europe that is understandably getting quite protectionist these days.

    In this global recessionary cat and mouse game we are clearly the free market losers vs the Chinese pegging and the ROW protectionist schemes. The only card we had up our sleeves was a strong dollar joker which was actually a haha you just got junk paper parlor trick. LOL, I wonder how many times they will be fooled by that one.

    Protectionism is bad but it's your only choice when the rest of the world is being protectionist. If you aren't you are the ultimate greatest fool.
    Oct 20 07:16 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Overstated: The BLS Comes Clean [View article]
    As everyone knows no one pays attention to the revisions only the new incorrect numbers.

    Or anotherwords, the market likes fiction over fact. Also sadly, as you have shown, in most cases the BLS's is completely irrelevant due to the margin or error in their findings as in most other disclosures like unemployment, home sales, etc.

    After all CNBC and traders need something to scream about every day. Even if it is meaningless and irrelevant. Just trade.... trade... trade... This is the sad state of affairs we have to contend with.
    Oct 20 07:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Trillion Dollar Deficits and Zero Interest Rates [View article]
    Keeping rates at zirp or any low level too long is bad for the economy. We just established this fact yet once again in 2008 by recognizing the failure of Greenspan. So why are we at zirp now indefinately? My word, does the Federal Reserve and policy makers have the memory spans of a newt? The only good that can come of it is asset bubbles, overleverage, no savings, and spending beyond our means (ring a bell yet)?

    And that can only lead to inflation and/or a collapse in the bubble leading to recession or depression coupled with deflation, lingering recession if our government keeps spending ourselves into a hole like Japan did, or inflation/hyper-inflation if the rest of the world gives up on trusting our ignorant central bank and government to have any fiscal prudence at all.

    Note that the we and public are noticably absent in this. The reason is simple. All good economists know that out of control monetary expansion is principally caused by 2 factors, monetary expansion by the Central bank or rate setting bodies and by the lack of adequate fiscal controls over banks and financial institutions leading to unbridled lending and risk taking.

    They can blame poor people borrowing when they shouldn't or people charging their credit card when they shouldn't, but the root of all of this goes back to financial institutions, the banks, and the Fed. If they weren't stupid enough to take the bad debt they would find some other person to take it. Thus, they squarely are to blame if you are a true economist. If not, you can play moral word games about why indigent people get a free house. They got it because the banks took your money and used it to give it to them.

    Indeed, our fiscal house needs cleansing but not from the bottom up. That would be true justice and true accountability. It needs a shakedown from the top of the financial circles down. If not, it can only end very badly. If not now, later.
    Oct 20 06:57 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Country Is Next to Raise Interest Rates? [View article]
    I disagree. Just about everyone is more firm about guaranteeing price stability and currency stability than the US. Bernake is the proverbial wimp. Like Greenspan, his unabashed mentor and now closet hero since he was discredited, Bernake will not raise rates until inflation is raging or until he leaves the mess to the next Fed Chief, whichever is first.

    But the main reason the US will not be the next to raise rates is simple. Before raising rates the Federal Reserve needs to neutralize all the extra QE cash sloshing around and mend it's Bear Stearns like balance sheet first. Otherwise, it risks massive losses on it's own assets. Likewise, even if they do that if they raise rates by 2% they are liable to get blowback from all those trillions of low interest bonds they backstopped as well.

    The liability the Federal Reserve has consumed at the ultimate risk to the taxpayer is unconscionable at best, definately negligent, and criminal at worst (not to mention unconstitutional). Thus, the Federal Reserve will not raise rates anytime soon because it jepordizes itself. If that hurts the American people so be it. Like they give a damn.
    Oct 20 06:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie and Freddie: Worthless? [View article]
    Although I have to commend KBW for seeing the obvious (that these companies are bankrupt and have negative value with no viable business model), I wonder how they ever convinced themselves in the first place that they were worth something? If this stock as they explain serves as a tool for speculators do they also admit they serve as a tool for speculators as well?
    Oct 20 06:28 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Economic Crisis Already Underway [View article]
    Worse yet than the Greenspan Put that encorages rampant risk taking is the fact that persistently low interest rates is an incentive to overspend and a disincintive to save. Thus after decades of this we are finding out that America as a whole is going flat broke. This is not just the government but its citizens as well. Furthermore, by constantly lying about inflation and covering up persistent con-core inflation (oil, commodities, etc.) we are finding out that even if we saved the federal Reserve has so deflated our money we have less today in real terms and can't afford what we do have and need.

    Health care has grown from 5% of GDP to 14% (some say 20% but lets take the conservative number). Basic neccesities have left America with no disposable income whatsoever. All the disposable income is from tapping into savings or outright debt. It has been this way for decades.

    The only real solution is to stop the federal Reserve. Although it is not set up to be an instrument of mass destruction, it has become this was simply because it is in their own political interest to appease those in power with false supercharghed booms and protect the banking cartel that they represent to the detriment of each and every American save themselves.
    Oct 20 06:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Housing Data Show Improvement This Week? [View article]
    The housing market is not just living off of low Federal Reserve rates but by government tax breaks, CRA laws, Fannie and Freddie loans, a bankrupt FHA, banking accounting games that lets them keep forclosures on the books at inflated values, more banking games that even have them refusing to forclose sticking bankrupt people with the bill and still offering ARMs with low down payments to people that can't afford them since the market for high lield bonds just recovered, faked assesments (the poor assessors are getting derided for valuing homes for their real value not the inflated ones so people can get even more loans of non-existing assets), and Treasury and Federal Reserve bond buying.

    There are so many ways this deadly, non-market driven concoction can go wrong it's just not plausible that it won't sooner or later. That's why month to month "recoveries" in this sector mean so little.
    Oct 19 08:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Nothing Wrong with Price Deflation [View article]
    The author and chap 08 are both right. Mild price changes even if deflationary are not bad and can even be good. It is rapid or massive changes that are devestating.

    The dollar's rapid and massive short term devaluation is starting to be just one such destabilizing change. Unfortunately the Federal Reserve, who is the one we trust to prevent this is, in fact the mastermind of the destruction of the dollar along with all America's assets valued in US$.
    Oct 19 07:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Recovery: Few Winners, Many Losers [View article]
    Ben Bernake is a moron. He thinks deflating the dollar 15-50% to get GDP positive means a recovery. That's like thinking that as long as you sign your name to an A paper in class that means you aced your test. It's a lie, pure and simple.

    Thanks to everyone who bothers to point out that a jobless recovery is an economic oxymoron.

    And by the way Ben Bernake, get your facts straight, your manipulations may have created a false technical end to the recession according to economists, but by no means creates a recovery. Apparently, even you are moronic enough to get caught up in your own lying doublespeak. Don't lie to the American public. We are not fools.
    Oct 19 07:41 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Three Asset Classes that Can Actually Outpace Coming Inflationary Price Increases [View article]
    First, Greenspan's comments just shows he was fully cognizant that his policies, much the same as Bernake's, is bad for America and leads to dollar devaluation and asset bubbles. Which shows he just wanted to be superman on his watch regardless of the fact he was doing so by setting an economic timebomb. I still have no respect for the man.

    Regarding what he just said. He is thoroughly correct now that he's out of power. It's nice to know he knows something about fiscal prudence. But sorry, it's a bit too late and now he is just a mealy mouthed voice in a tornado of opinions. It serves him right.

    The reason why no opne is complaining that oil is $80 bucks a barrel and your fuel prices are rising is because everyone knows this is a Federal Reserved induced dollar devaluation. It has nothing to do with anyone else. No oil production curtailment, no gold shortage, no undersupply, or too much demand. Just too many dollars.

    When people say that it's our budget deficit they have it only 1/4 right or 3/4 wrong. In fact, the dollar's devaluation is mostly Federal Reserve QE related and artificialy stimulated liquidity driven by the prolonged abnormally low rates set by the Federal Reserve. In fact the Fed has poured more liquidity into the market than any elected official and spending program in 2008 and 2009. The deficit pales in comparison to the backstops and money the Fed balance sheet expansion has losed upon the world. Everyone knows it.

    So when Bernake goes on his next speaking tour, he should be chastizing himself not others for their lack of fiscal competence. The Federal Reserve is the biggest cause for low savings rates in the US, Trade imbalances, and dollar devaluation. They always have been and they always will be for as long as they are around. They are the printing press and big spenders. Even more so than our elected officials. It's just that they are allowed to hide their nefarious actions because they claim immunity from audits and from accountability because they are a "private company".

    I wonder, as a private company who made more per employee in 2009, GS or the Federal Reserve? And which bank is the biggest systemic risk? To have the Fed manage systemic risk is like asking AIG to manage the insurance industry.

    So don't be so down on yourself for electing Bush Jr. or Obama. Whoever you elect means so very little compared to who sits in the throne of the Federal Reserve. If anyone's going to ruin your life it will be them and they figure that there is almost no chance you can or will do anything about it.
    Oct 19 07:29 PM | 30 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve Exit Watch: Part 3 [View article]
    "Obviously, the leadership at the Fed does not feel that any type of constraint should be imposed upon the banking system at this time."

    I suppose this also means that they feel that the Federal Reserve, being a part of the banking system, should be free from auditing, elected officials, accountability to the public, regulation, or any reasonable expectation to be fiscally prudent or solvent.

    Already the Feds capital to Asset ratio is over 40 without taking into account any asset degradation or losses from their trillions of bond backstops. That gives them the problems of Bear Stearns and AIG combined. Their only saving grace today is that they don't have to disclose their losses nor mark to market and can deflate the dollar infinitely to pay for their gross negligence.

    Really, is this Constitutionally legal or ethical?
    Oct 19 07:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Markets in Review: Risky Assets Disconnect from Fundamentals [View article]
    The reason risky assets have a market right now is because they seem to be the only assets that pay a decent (but not fair) value for their risk. Certainly safe assets like US Treasuries don't even cover for dollar devaluation, let along current inflation and future inflation. Likewise, with the government using taxpayers money to lure more people into the housing fiasco with low interest rates (yes you still can buy an ARM with low down despite all the banter about regulating the financial system).

    Banks now sell mortgages at 5.xx % which can hardly cover the default risk let alone infation etc. The only reason they do is because they can dump them on Fannie Mae, Fredie Mac, Treasury, Federal Reserve, or FHA. Thus the taxpayer is taking all the risk. No bank in their right mind would sell one without being able to sell it to a government or quasi-government entity. Thus, traditional bonds have also becoming low interest paying garbage manipulated by the government so they won't reflect real risk either.

    Thus we have what's left, stock and equity speculation, commodities to reflect real inflation and curb real dollar depreciation, and high yielding junk that at least pays enough to cover the 15% currency devaluation we are looking at this year and perhaps next year. At this rate, if you think the Peso was garbage 20 years ago get ready to feel like you're living in the real New Mexico. I wonder what they will think when Americans start accepting pesos as the preferable curency for payment over greenbacks. The Federal Reserve is shameful.
    Oct 19 09:00 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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