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Moon Kil Woong  

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Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Student Loans: The Government Is Now Officially in the Banking Business [View article]
    The issue of student loans is that the default rates are through the roof and the government ends up picking up the tab while the banks were picking up the profit.

    Now with the government being directly involved it will do nothing but encourage more people to default and demand government leniency. Even though they get the percentage going to the bank, don't expect the losses to stop mounting.

    Until they find a way of assessing students who will honor their loan commitments, raising rates, and/or penalizing those who decide not to pay the government will keep using taxpayer money to float students boats.

    What type of education in fiscal responsibility does that teach kids? How about this: Welcome to socialization. The more fiscally irresponsible you can be the more free stuff you can get away with. Sign up for a free class about social engineering where you get paid for studying how to get a free education.
    Apr 1, 2010. 02:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Housing Bubble Hit All of America? [View article]
    You are right that this graphic doesn't show the complete picture. Also, no one can say for certain that the declines are through. Higher end housing tends to trail lower end collapses because they can hold out longer before capitulating. So the high end of the market may only now be feeling the impact.

    I would not be surprised if 90% of the cities are negative. Although all markets are local, all long term recessions affect every locale sooner or later.
    Apr 1, 2010. 01:28 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walker: Drastic Action Needed to Maintain U.S. Standard of Living [View article]
    In the end don't blame a party, blame all politicians Republicans and Democrats and elect only fiscally conservative officials be it from whatever political party. Clinton was much more a fiscal conservative than Bush Jr. and Obama is much less a fiscal conservative save Bush Jr. (please add on TARP to his giant record of fiscal waste even though he didn't record it as an expenditure).The sad fact is that finding one is hard work. Our system favors those out to see what they can get for themselves and their friends. That means squandering money that comes from "serving" the public they presumably are supposed to serve. Spending taxpayers money without anything to show for it and then borrowing on the assets on their country is not doing the public good.
    Mar 31, 2010. 06:51 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wednesday Options Recap [View article]
    Thanks for the recap. I am liking GLW and AMAT options and have picked up a few myself today. Both companies are indicating strong demand and higher profitability. Overall options directions are pointing towards bullishness and the general expectation for corporate earnings are positive.

    How long this will keep running after Q2 is the big question when stimulus is on the wane. In the meantime it's great to hedge with puts on bad apple companies, but going bear is just straight up risky right now.
    Mar 31, 2010. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Inventories Still Building [View article]
    It is interesting to see that fuel and other commodities rises are not going up on higher demand but on speculation and hoarding. And of course they are being used to hedge against inflation due to out of control fiat money making. Can governments out print the amount of reserves being built up? It seems so.

    Oil is a prime example. Weak demand, growing excess supply, yet higher prices. You can thank a flood of new US dollars for that.
    Mar 31, 2010. 06:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prosecuting Insider Trading in CDS [View article]
    SEC prosecution tends to be more like extortion to get extra penalty money than actually trying to stop anything or put anyone behind bars. It's sad but true.
    Mar 31, 2010. 06:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The New York Times Failed in Its Attempt to Make the Case for a Bear Market [View article]
    Clearly they don't believe in efficient market theory when it comes to prices. It is hard to make an overpriced argument until you have a pretty clear idea of forward looking earnings. As of now analyst earnings expectations have been way too low. So obviously taking their earnings expectations will show a market that is somewhat overvalued.

    The market probably has a better estimation of earnings and with such low interest rates, it's hard to fathom not buying stocks even if the PE was 30 to 1. In Japan where interest rates are close to 0% for decades a 50 to 1 PE ratio is considered undervalued. Judging value by historical norms without considering interest rates is a fools errand done pretty much by fools.
    Mar 31, 2010. 03:55 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'The Bears Are Wrong'? I Don't Think So [View article]
    A double dip may be in the works the end of the year. Calling for a dip now as we go into some strong earnings and strong government stimulus is probably premature.

    By the way, the author's statement, "What we do know is that there are simply no sellers. Absent sellers prices tend to drift upward." is right on the dot.
    Mar 31, 2010. 03:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Job Market Is Poised for Growth [View article]
    Although the ADP and BLS may differ due to government temporary work as you can see on the chart they tend to revert in line with each other with the ADP being the less volatile guideline. I'll stick to ADP numbers. The BLS no matter what it is won't wow me.

    That being said, I still expect market gains on strong earnings and gov stimulus Q2 so optimism is not a bad thing. Just finding optimism in places like employment numbers is badly mistaken. Corporate earnings will be strong on rising productivity, low to no hiring, and better margins. Great for companies but not cheerful for workers.
    Mar 31, 2010. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ADP: Throwing Water on the Employment Outlook? [View article]
    Although fundamentals look weak it is hard to bet against big money government spending including the most ridiculous census taking in recent history (I guess they forgot about statistics and sampling). I suspect spring will see a government led spending spree bounce. After that the future is unsure.

    The market is right to bet on big caps. I suspect their earnings will look quite good on very little hiring or expense increases. Look at companies like AMAT and GLW which I just picked up. They are both indicating strong growth in revenue, higher profitability, and better margins. We can all hope tech will save the US economy yet again.
    Mar 31, 2010. 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is High Beta About to Crash the Market? [View article]
    Very good comment Cautiousinvestor and good article. Although I'm not bearish on the market yet, fundamentals are not that strong and inflation and bond rates are on the rise. Even sovereign bonds are looking vulnerable which could lead to economic malaise by the 2nd half of this year.

    If small caps don't rally, especially tech, biotech, and medicals stocks in the next month that will be a cause for concern since we need them to drive a real recovery. Manufactured gains from government spending and special deals for banks and others will no longer save the market indexes.
    Mar 31, 2010. 03:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wednesday's Worry: Worldwide Cash Crunch [View article]
    Watch Europe if a first shoe drops it will be there. That will prop up the dollar which hopefully would give you time to clear out before the US runs aground and needs to hike rates substantially. Of course, this won't prevent a general trending down in the dollar.

    The world has gotten used to it. Thanks Federal Reserve for undermining the dollar year after year. Doing so is not a bad thing in bad times but Greenspan did it for years during good times.
    Mar 31, 2010. 03:08 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bernanke Plan: Sacrifice Savers to Recapitalize Banks and Benefit Debtors [View article]
    The disincentive for saving and encouragement for debt has been in place for decades. It is arguably the worst now. Savers get to watch their money devalue to nothing year after year.

    This is however positive for stocks and commodities for those who can play that side of things. As with most market things, for every disadvantage there is an advantage to be had. Unfortunately, so few of them are within grasp of the average American.

    Certainly saving is better than not if only for security and peace of mind. Hopefully, this downturn has enshrined a little of that thinking even though it would seem that the powers that be wish to discourage that.
    Mar 31, 2010. 02:57 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Less Sanguine View of GDP [View article]
    It is believable that 2nd quarter GDP ex government spending may contract. However, stimulus doesn't fall off until Q3, so it is wrong to say that stimulus wear off will be one reason for a GDP fall off.

    Of course, GDP and business directions are not hard baked. Any major move by the Treasury market, interest rates, inflation, or the Federal reserve can throw this type of prediction out of whack.
    Mar 30, 2010. 01:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Surges as Copper, Oil and Gold Rise [View article]
    It's simple, as fiat countries go into overdrive with binge printing to manufacture an end to a recession (all they really do is add inflation and higher commodities prices to the mix) why should we be surprised at this. Oil rising makes a lot of sense since it tied closely to US overprinting. Gold rising comes from fiat currency instability in Europe right now. And copper rising shows that most all commodities are ready to run again.

    The good news is that the US stock market and equities probably won't be dropping as the government spending frenzy crests this year. What happens when the tide goes out? We will get to see the real carnage and which fish never really made it.

    Stay away from long term treasuries.
    Mar 30, 2010. 11:20 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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