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Moon Kil Woong  

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Latest  |  Highest rated
  • My Confessions As A Gambler And Why You're Likely One Too [View article]
    Sadly pretty much everyone in the market right now is gambling. This is the fundamental result of Fed. rate action that must stay at near zero to keep asset prices overvalued. Sadly on top of this speculation is a subtle further speculation of QE or other non-market driven action to save investors on top of low rates. This is tantamount to a utter non-market based dependence on outside influence that typifies socialist and programmed economies.

    Tread carefully. It is good to see people realize the gambling they are being forced into taking for profit thanks to the low rate environment created by a idiotic, uneconomic minded Federal Reserve.
    Mar 15, 2015. 08:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking A Better Alpha [View article]
    Good insight. Alpha is a often spoke about topic which few really take time to understand besides wanting it.
    Mar 15, 2015. 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Friday The 13th Omen For Stocks [View article]
    Yawn, just a few months ago people were discussing March or closer to June. A few months before end of the year of Feb. A few months before Q3 or Q4. All I have to say is if they do hike, stocks will not go back to normal because that means Yellen has lost control of other Fed members and or inflation and the treasury market.

    Yellen's modus operandi has always been talk a lot and do nothing. She's as incompetent if not more than Greenspan. That's why she got to be head of the Federal Reserve just like all the other recent Fed Chairmen.
    Mar 13, 2015. 11:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could The Search For Income Lead To Instability? [View article]
    Worse instability comes with the Fed's action that is getting people to look for high income gains through asset appreciation of riskier stocks. At least income generating stocks that pay dividends have a backstop to show value when the crap hits the proverbial fan. That is why, I hope, so many people are becoming more and more interested in them.
    Mar 13, 2015. 10:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer sentiment declines in March [View news story]
    I agree the fall off isn't here yet, but signals of a tiring market are increasing. One is foolish to call an exact day for a cyclical downturn, but one can see that one is due and one is coming if not already here. Look at the history of market cycles to start out.
    Mar 13, 2015. 10:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rig count keeps falling, down 46% from October [View news story]
    It is funny all those being sold the brokers lie line to look at wells got burned by betting on a recovery. All that's getting shut down right now is wells that don't perform well, while newer and improved wells take up the slack. Even if production doesn't increase the US reserves are really worrisome, however, the commitments to keep buying Mideast oil by the big players is even more worrisome as they trawl the oceans.

    The Mideast knows something has got to give.
    Mar 13, 2015. 10:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The War On Savers, Part 2: How Investors Can Protect Themselves From The Current, Deteriorating Investment Landscape [View article]
    You fail to look at the long term effects of low interest rates and the Federal Reserve. By keeping rates low right now they do extend the economic cycle but at drastic consequences. Their inability to lower rates when the cycle turns down will result in more pain and lost jobs than raising rates towards normalcy. There is a real cost to keeping rates low forever and it is terrible.
    Mar 12, 2015. 12:37 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Real Problem [View article]
    The issue is not that people don't disagree Greece needs a chance. It is that they have helped Greece multiple times without anything meaningful.

    As for the author's writing, I disagree that small business is to blame. If anything this has prevented Greece from utter collapse. The problem is Greece's large businesses and government backed businesses that not only feed off the tax base but inhibit real competitive growth. This prevents them from being competitive anywhere outside Greece and even in Greece. These businesses must face real competition and go. Much like the US or Japan, those companies dependent on government handouts and protection destroy capitalism, destroy the factors of growth in an economy, and eventually plunge a economy into decline.

    The US is already dealing with a low growth economy thanks to pseudo-socializing banks, initiating QE, and socializing their housing market and student loan market although leaving the liability with the debtor. This is just one example of destroying capitalism by supporting entities not capable of operating without government/treasury support and guarantees which kill off the economy as well as competition.
    Mar 12, 2015. 12:23 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Is On The Sell Clock [View article]
    McDonald's main problem lies overseas where it has let quality go slack and has been plagued by scandal. Compounded by a higher US dollar, which it can't help it is amazing its numbers are not lower.

    I agree with the author one should be careful of this stock. The burger wars in the US are getting fiercer and although it is mainly in the high end, McDonald's offsetting weak sales with higher prices will eventually make its customers realize they may not be getting a affordable meal there after all. If so, all bets are off.

    The good news is they still lobby a lot to get burger joints placed by schools to make your kids fat and offset cost by putting rubber mat ingredients in their bread to save on having their employees learn how to deal with yeast (like subway was doing). Such matters may make you consider the moral issue of owning this stock as well.
    Mar 12, 2015. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Will Not Raise Rates... Here's Why [View article]
    You have a good point. The strong dollar is letting the US survive by lending overseas to the scared people elsewhere so it doesn't need more QE to self-finance itself. However, the problem still exists. The US debt is too big to be financed by the US savers (which are growing fewer in numbers all the time) and foreign governments already are swimming in US Treasuries which is simply US debt and are usually loathe to take on more. This may eventually be what pushes higher interest rates on us, however, this Federal Reserve is not liable to do such a thing as long as Yellen has control.

    The worry is that even she is having a hard time keeping the others in the Federal Reserve from demanding we raise rates, if nothing else, to give them space to lower them when the business cycle ends. Mike 07 is right that the US can hardly afford higher rates on its interest which helps Yellen argue for continued artificially low rates for the hopelessly indebted like the US government.
    Mar 12, 2015. 12:05 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Egalet accelerates NDA filing date for abuse-deterrent morphine [View news story]
    How is this different from Collegium's solution that the FDA already accepted?
    Mar 12, 2015. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Strength Is A Unique Opportunity [View article]
    The upside is the US can continue to finance its debt and spend generating more deficits and money for the time being without more QE funny stuff. The problem is that if it goes too far the US, like Japan won't be able to live without or stop QE.
    Mar 12, 2015. 02:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Importance Of How To Invest, Not What To Invest [View article]
    I agree with both yours and the author's bent. The author is right, especially with Buffet who has strayed too far from the value investor track to even call himself a value investor anymore. Following his arguments in investing these days would lead you to believe best investing is from cutting sweet backroom deals, especially with the government and talking up positions. A normal investor can't to either. However, a large investor also has to fight moving their money without making huge waves and finding big deals to do.

    In the end, simple and accurate is better and it's best to stick with what you know (Buffet said this as well when he was a value investor. Graham and Dodd would cry to see him these days).

    That said, Daniel Bank is correct in that basic understanding of balance sheets, risk, debt, capital ratios, etc. is important to know and consider in investing. Otherwise it's not investing and more like gambling. I argue that investors should pick up and try to read through at least 1 decent investing book as well as economics book. It is amazing that there is not more discussion about business cycles on SA, in the market, with the Federal Reserve, and among investors. It's like people have forgotten economics all together and are now dependent on government and central bank bone throwing and mind readers predicting when they throw bones.

    This is the classic example of what is wrong with a socialist economy not a capitalist one, and is a strong warning call that something bad indeed is bound to happen. One big rule all investors should learn is sooner or later, but always, a economy divergent from capitalism and economic signaling will go horribly wrong. Take that as a warning as you look at your portfolio.
    Mar 12, 2015. 02:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Chasing QE [View article]
    Sadly, the long term effects of QE on the economy and the market are terrible. It prevents economies from adjusting and gets various parties addicted and dependent on a low rate no growth interest rate setup. Lastly, it is not sustainable as the economy dependent on QE demands more and more and can not ever reverse the QE expansion without risking a downturn worse than the one they are avoiding with QE.

    Those who tout US QE as a success have yet to see the full ramification of QE besides the zombie economy. That's because to see it requires to look at the economy before and after it is reversed. As everyone knows, stopping it temporarily is not reversing it. There is no sane way to reverse it and certainly no political way. Ask Japan.
    Mar 12, 2015. 01:52 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Inside Apple: MacBooks Now, iPads Later? [View article]
    The semi and tech cycle has not ended yet. I would not buy any semi until that has occurred just like it is generally best not to at the end of any semi cycle in the past. That said, Intel has its niche and has many difficulties expanding out of it. This means it will continue to pour its profit into its pursuit of those markets largely negating its success in its core business. One must look at Intel as a whole to determine its investment value.
    Mar 12, 2015. 01:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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