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Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Too Many Houses, Too Much House [View article]
    The Federal Reserve has no choice but to stop buying mortgage securities which means by their admission 20% of the mortgage buying will cease leaving Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac nowhere to dump their losing bonds and get more liquidity to sell more losing bonds. This means a housing market crash simply due to lack of liquidity and rising rates to try to raise that liquidity until there is no need for it (as in no one wants to buy).

    Banks and Real Estate agents are once again suckering the public into speculative home buying so they can dump inventory on the public through rate scaring on the cusp of a mortgage collapse. Be wise and do due diligence. That doesn't mean zillowing the region or looking at a line showing rates are rising. That means looking at the fact you can lose 10 20 or a higher percent of your property value if the economy goes into a mild 4 year downturn which it does about every 4 years, especially when 20% of the mortgage bond buying walks away with the punch bowl (the Federal Reserve). This is why the Federal Reserve should never get into the mortgage bond market in the first place and why QE is so bad. Getting out of QE is a deal with the devil. You can never really get out and if you try the effects are so much worse than what you tried to avoid in the first place you will quickly learn how hellish it really is.

    Softly tapering... ridiculous. Tapeing without any adverse effect... lies. Tapering at all... it probably won't happen. Like I said before, the first step in tapering is abandoning buying anything but US treasuries to save the US treasury bond auction from what happens if it withdraws from bond buying there (it is also 20% of long term demand). When it does it will collapse the real estate market so bad it won't even think of tapering the US bond market and probably will ask the QE more. Just like Japan, endless recession and endless QE is the most likely outcome unless we choose to endure the pain of adhering to a traditional capitalistic economy and not a socialized managed economy with the central bank and government running the economy into the ground which we have now.
    Aug 19 07:46 AM | 36 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3: The Fed's Faustian Bargain For The U.S. Economy [View article]
    Patience it is coming, but more imprtantly QE deprives a country of a decent recovery and relies on even more to do so.

    Kostohrys is right this is a Faustian game and we already sold our economy. QE III is just the result. Once you make a deal with the devil you never escape. QE requires continued QE to maintain the illusion as your economy remains divorced from reality and can never fix its structural problems. QE will go to more QE and more QE as the economy relies on government and central bank intervention and not genuine economic signaling. Price imbalance will continue as we soviet socialize ourselves.

    We sold capitalism down the drain to keep a few rich bankers rich. In many ways we deserve all that's coming for us when QE finally fails us and we become a 3rd would country. After all, we abandoned capitalistic rationality in favor of economic state run coddling. Next in line to lose is your freedom when you protest.
    Aug 15 03:15 PM | 36 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Manic Monday: Greenspan Finally Agrees With Me [View article]
    "But the trillion-dollar conglomerates that inhabit this new financial world are not free enterprises. They are rather wards of the state, extracting billions from the economy with a lot of pointless speculation in stocks, bonds, commodities and derivatives." This is very true.

    Regarding the tax increases, no amount of tax increases will cover Obama's laughable government expenditures. He will spend until we are all broke. We should not encourage him or government by letting them permanently tax more. If you want to see a recovery tax less, spend less, and get government out of the kitchen and into the cellar again. It's the private sector that drives the economy. The public sector is nothing but a tax on society. The bigger it is the worse off we are.
    Aug 2 12:28 PM | 36 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Too Rich vs. Gold [View article]
    Actually silver had almost always been a small byproduct of gold mining and was dumped on the market to make the extra $5 per ounce for years. The fact that silver is now being seen as a store of value and now being hoarded along with gold changes all that.

    The simple fact is silver stockpiles are inadequate for this usage unlike gold. Until more silver mines open up due to being affordable to mine now the price should stay over $30. And if silver demand spikes again the gold silver spread will continue to narrow simply because no matter what the price is, supply doesn't change much.
    Mar 18 06:14 PM | 35 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Is Now in Firm Control of U.S. Debt Markets [View article]
    CRK, I fully agree that people tend to believe that China is this great efficiency engine that is going to eat our lunch. Thay aren't, nor are they quietly plotting our demise. They are just trying to steer a command economy in disctressed times. That probably means hedging their bets any way they can. If the US is silly enough to think the rest of the world won't hedge their bets and buy endless resevoirs of US treasuries then the problem lies firmly in the US's hands not anyone elses.

    The simple fact is, too much $ and too many treasuries = inflation and higher bond rates. No one is forcing Treasury bond rates up on purpose besides the misguided administrations of Bush Jr. and Obama. Blame the real culprits not some strange foreign power that has been happy to fund your excesses for decades. They only funded them because they trusted that your economy was more stable than theirs. It's not a sign of dominence over America, or a sign that they have no choices. Their habit of buying Treasuries has largely been a sign of trust. That trust is now in question.

    Wouldn't you question someone's trust if they just made your long term investment in them loose 30% of it's value in less than a year? I would. So can you really blame them? Is this the act of someone really in control? The answer is no on both counts. Is their recent actions a signal things are changing? Does it not show they can be dollar risk adverse? The answer is yes on both accounts. They aren't in control and they don't need to be as heavily leveraged in US Treasuries as they have been before.

    We make America what it is. If we want to bankrupt ourselves it will solely be us who does it.
    May 26 01:01 PM | 35 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Sell While You Still Have A Chance [View article]
    The end of QE is not on the horizon because the US can't end it successfully anytime soon without further weakening of the dollar and a rise in interest rates as the Federal Reserve seeks to find a replacement buyer for it's treasury bond auctions to substitute it's own QE bond buying.

    Now that the Federal Reserve knows that even after a sharp rise in yields, foreigners still won't buy their long term money losing low yield US Treasuries of course they will decide not to quit QE It's not a decision, honestly speaking, they don't have a choice but to continue it.
    Oct 26 03:19 AM | 34 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ron Paul Has It Totally Backwards, Gold Isn't Going To Explode Higher [View article]
    This is really quite funny when the dollar is sinking due to foreign governments pulling out of US Treasuries because the Federal Reserve has discredited itself by bid rigging the Treasury market by falsifying the yield curve when buying itself. QE going to Fannie Mae or to other bond purchased will be curtailed only to make room for more QE to go to prop up this farce of low yielding US Treasuries (which are no longer AAA).

    Gold will not be the only thing rising in a commodities run up. Every commodity will run up because the dollar sinks and nothing more. In the meantime China's buying record gold and people are pulling gold out of Comex. Hmmmm, Ron Paul may not be perfectly correct in hyperinflation (there is plenty of jobs, government, and other ways for companies to cut to make up for higher commodities prices) but he is right in that the US dollar is becoming funny money, especially when the government runs unsustainable budgets and on top of that you have the Federal Reserve adding to the base money supply with QE.

    Sadly, the answer will probably be more stimulus and debt and more QE until capitalism in the US as we know it ends. When money supply becomes corrupt and the government becomes more of the economy than small businesses we become economically blind like the old Soviet Union before it collapsed.
    Aug 16 11:56 AM | 34 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is More Than A Mere Bubble In The Stock Market [View article]
    It is well thought out. I think he nails it on the head implying there is a distortion in the market and he is wise to see the financial sector participating. As you may know, I continue to believe the distortion and mixed economic signaling is coming due to the government and the Federal Reserve with QE, overly loose monetary policy, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac being at the epicenter. This is almost identical to the 2007 distortions.

    Where Fannie and Freddie distorted the market with artificially low rates and loose lending/unprofitable due to the government's tacit backstop of them the US Has now just nationalized them. Nothing is solved. It's worse.

    Even worse TBTF banks that were toppling in 2007 are now bigger and fully dependent on absolutely free money through zirp and dumping loser low interest housing loans on the taxpayers. Coupled with the same but worse Federal Reserve perma-loose monetary policy that exceeds Greenspan's it looks like it will only get worse with Yellen.

    Last we have lobbyists and the government making big guys bigger and handing out money like candy to companies tied to them while giving raises in a perma-recession while making the middle class and small businesses starve.

    Regarding the distortion in the market with respects to corporate profitability the answer comes very simply. The big guys are reaping inordinate profits by cannibalizing the best part of the economy, small and medium sized businesses. Small banks are unfairly disadvantaged against big ones. Small doctors are crushed by big medical insurance conglomerates. Small contractors with lobbying money will always get government contracts. Big defense contractors have eaten 90% Of all defense contracts destroying any sense of competitive bidding and now just overprice everything. There is little to no protection for the average joe trying to compete because socialized or crony capitalism is eating America.

    The only thing bigger than this false economic bubble is the lies they spin to hide it from Americans.
    Nov 13 01:35 AM | 33 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Recession Isn't Over: Now for the Hard Part [View article]
    Anyone attempting to assuage their economy with quantitative easing will also visit the dark side of that tecnique just like Japan did.

    However, since the US has no trade surplus or reserves to speak of it is liable to turn out oh so very badly. You would think people would learn from history, but the fact the US revoked the Glass Stegall act has already proved that a complete fallacy.
    Jul 6 10:55 AM | 33 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Every Vote Counts [View article]
    "Icahn is an activist investor who seeks to unlock shareholder value in all the companies": rather Icahan likes to pillage companies for their assets and short term gains in the stock price at the cost to long term investors. He is a great approximation of Gordon Geko, pillage the cash hoards, drive up the price and dump.
    Jan 31 01:03 AM | 32 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Why We Are Headed Into a Recession [View article]
    I agree we are headed into a bad recession later. Whether or not there will be a recovery before that is up for grabs. More and more a Eurozone style stagnant growth, high unemployment economy looks more like the case. This is what you get as more and more of your economy is dominated by the government.

    Government should be no more than about 10% of GDP not approaching 20%. Most all that 10% federal tax should go medical coverage and the military (infrastructure is supported by State and local taxes save some to the highways). Government spending is a burden not a blessing.
    Jul 8 01:25 PM | 32 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting the Double Dip [View article]
    I would certainly say the rally is looking a bit tired and tenuous here. We will see if there is another semi-logical catalyst to drive it up to frothy new highs. I certainly am not a buyer at these levels.

    Worry over bank taxes, earnings, inflation, real growth, dollar directions, and the end of QE are real concerns that are not at the forefront of investors minds right now. Rather we have a lot of people chasing the types of gains we got last year which is not a repeatable event even under the most illogical frothy scenarios.

    I would not short as much as position yourself for future rising volatility later this year. I think we're in for a wild ride.
    Jan 15 05:40 AM | 32 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Love My 'Magic Pants' And My Partners Wear Them Proudly [View article]
    If you look at dividend stocks, they overwhelmingly are cash flow positive, which in that fact alone, will save you a lot of pain if you owned something else instead. Real money in the bank matters, and money going from that account into yours is even more fantastic. after all, dividend yield is the fundamental basics which value investing started from.
    Mar 19 11:56 AM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Leveraged Buyout Of America [View article]
    Well people who care about the public interest talk about it, but it will never happen because too much bank lobbying money is going to elected officials who clearly don't care about the public interest and regulatory power is being passed to do nothing organizations like the Federal Reserve (what a joke).
    Aug 26 06:11 PM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons to Dislike China [View article]
    Blaming a single country is not the correct thing to do. China like Japan, Korea, and now Vietnam is a player to the US' insatiable demand for low cost products with low labor costs from overseas. If it was not China it would be another country to provide the low cost products the US wants. Even now, as China becomes more affluent US corporations are moving new manufacturing to lower cost countries.

    Although China has refused to revalue their currency, inevitably they will not be able to compete with even lower cost labor in other countries and will have to move their economy upstream or face a collapse like all emerging countries. In the meantime, the US government feels like their endless debt drivenm shell game will go on forever and are accelerating the process towards their own economic collapse due to ignorant and self serving leadership that sells out America's future for short term political givaways and thereby creating insurmountable debt.

    In reality the problem lies with the destabilizing effect of China and the US collectively. They are like two people who hang on to each other as they cut off their leg. China cuts off domestic growth and demand to generate trade surpluses denying them the fruit of their labor and a real economy while the US guts its own economy and runs massive deficits to fuel its consumer led economy and mask the inflationary effect of its leadership giving away America to lobbying and special interest groups.

    This has been said over and over and is as apparent as daylight. Yet nothing is done. Don't just blame China please. The scope of the issue is wider than a single country. If the world was a car, China has increasingly become the engine. In this analogy it is clear the engine is not the one running the car over the cliff. It is the driver, not the engine. That driver is more the US than anyone else.

    Of course, at the rate the US is flooding the engine with gas (US dollars), it is likely the car will overheat and shut down before it gets much further. Inflation is burning a hole in China's economy already. It will reach us all too soon enough thanks to QE and constant trillion + deficits.
    Dec 27 01:22 PM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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