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Moon Kil Woong  

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Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Making Sense Of China's Currency Policy [View article]
    China's problem is locking the Yuan with the dollar. If China let the currency freely float they wouldn't have to devalue. It would have devalued much more than their recent devaluation relative to the dollar. One should look at the Yuan to any SE currency to see why manufacturing is trying to flee China to Vietnam, Malaysia, and other countries.

    In fact, we should be thanking them for not devaluing sooner. As for the US, our Federal Reserve has locked us at zirp rates so when we hit a downturn there is pretty much nothing we can do but run massive deficits and engage in QE to devalue. Absolutely stupid...
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China leads Asian markets lower [View news story]
    Yawn... pretty much everyone already owns Apple including all the funds that will be forced to liquidate shares as people exit this downturn.
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China leads Asian markets lower [View news story]
    The metrics are backwards looking. It is increasingly clear Apple and others numbers will look increasingly bad here on out even with cheaper plastic prices.
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Perspectives On The Selloff [View article]
    There is very little panic selling besides in China and now the rest of Asia. The US market remains over valued and can wind down further, but the author is right that this is not a market collapse marred by dumping and fear.

    Last, the real risk of a crash is that the Federal Reserve can't do much given QE will be opposed in Washington and they have given up on rational Keynesian methodologies and left rates at zero the entire business cycle like a 3 year old would. They should have their economic degrees revoked as an utter disgrace to the field.
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:28 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At the open [View news story]
    What are they going to say, they won't raise interest rates? Half the market already rose rates due to risk premiums on defaults and the other half doesn't move because they are smart enough to know 12 months ago that the Fed isn't going to raise rates.
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of Something Big? [View article]
    Not all cycles go the traditional route, especially when influenced by extreme circumstances or events. It is quite possible that this cycle will be written as a cycle with slow growth leading to a down cycle mainly due to QE and overly lax monetary policy which prevented the market from adjusting properly so that it can correct and expand. Thus, we are doomed to repeat the error until the economy is allowed to correct for the problems of the last downturn and the new problems this cycle has wrought.
    Aug 23, 2015. 01:21 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For Signs Of Life In The Economy [View article]
    One needs not look at container counts but import and export numbers used by economists to measure these things which show both are falling along with retail sales. Shipping a ship load of toilet paper and a ship load of trucks is a big difference even though they may use the same amount of containers.
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why salesforce May Fall From Here [View article]
    Sadly Salesforce has already achieved economies of scale and is slowing its growth and yet real profitability remains an enigma for them. Sadly, Salesforce needs to cut heavily and rearrange its business strategy. I believe the Microsoft rumor is only a last desperate act to keep the stock up before everyone begins to demand results that hit the bottom line.

    Don't get me started with their Wonderland non-GAAP accounting and cloud spooferifics. In fact, if their cloud strategy was so great why aren't they getting the biggest claimed benefit from it, increased profitability and scalability. They hype on this stock will remain because a bunch of analysts depend on it to feed themselves and probably forgot how to do real accounting. However, I'd advise to stay away.
    Aug 23, 2015. 02:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve Continues To 'Tighten Up,' Getting Ready For Raising Rates? [View article]
    "The point is that the Fed had to get to where it now is before it could really seriously begin to raise rates.", LOL the Fed has gotten here months ago and still hasn't done anything and many believe don't plan on doing anything either. Dove lol.... this Federal Reserve is more like a Dinosaur that is already dead. Incompetent and incapable besides being completely ignorant of basic economics, they have proven they aren't even following Keynes anymore after abandoning his tools for managing economic cycles.
    Aug 23, 2015. 02:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Start Of Something Big? [View article]
    Actually I see little panic selling in the market and the downturn is being made to be much more than it is right now. Until the market downturn creates a feedback cycle with the economy, barring some catastrophic event, the market downturn is far from being called a collapse or anything on the scale of a meltdown.

    We will see if this market is able to remain calm and deal with downturns in strides or if the Willy Wonka/Disneyland managed economy we've been fed for so long has destroyed the capitalist system too much that we can't handle change and market cycles anymore. Let us hope not.

    By the way, we aren't in expansion mode. We are either topping off in a market peak or we are still in recovery, having not experienced strong growth throughout this drawn out business cycle. It would be hard to prove that we are anywhere else on the economic activity chart.
    Aug 23, 2015. 02:40 AM | 50 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Squeeze Lifts Euro And Yen; More To Come? [View article]
    Those betting on the fed to tighten are gravely misled. Sadly, many of those are correct to believe the Fed should have and still should tighten. The sad fact is, this Fed has not one iota of intelligence and has thrown Keynesian strategy to the wind. We aren't playing by textbooks anymore because the Federal Reserve magically became a believer in fairytale socialist, managed economies ever since Greenspan left us with the royal mess he did by getting people to believe the Fed was Santa Claus.
    Aug 23, 2015. 02:21 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now - Or Is It Too Late? [View article]
    If I was going to give advise on hedging now I'd tell people to begin by pulling out of international investments and to start saving up cash. Many people's investments are in retirement accounts. Those that aren't are often in stocks and mutual funds. Of the two, I'd hold onto the stocks because you can defer those capital gains for pretty much eternity if you hold them until you need them. Mutual funds you pay taxes on theoretical gains unless in retirement accounts.

    Thus its best to sell mutual funds outside retirement next. Most people aren't sophisticated enough to time the market downturn well enough to make expensive short term hedges. So the above is a more meaningful way to lower your risk.
    Aug 23, 2015. 02:12 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happened To Building Permits In July? [View instapost]
    I wouldn't be surprised if weakness shows up here. It seems to be showing up everywhere else as well.
    Aug 23, 2015. 02:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Missed By The Market - Domestic Crude Production Is Falling [View article]
    Sadly the problem is not US production, but the fact the whole world is awash in too much production and too little need leading to oversupply and low demand growth that can't keep up with the massive finds.

    Until there is a mass decrease in current production the excess stock will never be worked through leading to an even bigger glut with less storage to hold the excess.

    At prices today, Mexico is looking to get into the game and others are trying to plunge wells into the Antarctic, the North Pole, and Southeast Asia. Likewise surplus is mounting even without Russia and Iran dumping even more onto the market. This will get uglier before it gets better.
    Aug 22, 2015. 02:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: When There Is Blood In The Streets, Will You Become A Vampire? [View article]
    Sadly those screaming blood have never been through a real market downturn. This is really nothing and if we hit a real downturn expect the "blood on the streets" to gush a lot more.

    The sad fact is this market has turned its back on risk aversion and replaced it by doubling down double downs and tripling down on that. Clearly, the level of derivatives in all markets are astounding and surpass even the last downturn. Nothing has been solved since the last downturn and this market is even more hyped up on Fed loose liquidity, runaway housing prices sustained through Fannie and Freddie, derivatives, and bank gambling backed by the taxpayer.

    Watch out, this is a house of cards build very far from the solid rocks of true capitalism.
    Aug 22, 2015. 02:21 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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