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Moon Kil Woong

 
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Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Weak Demand Is Hurting Dell - Barron's [View article]
    Dell has been hurting Dell. Until they can come somewhere above 4th place on customer satisfaction why should you pay a premium for their brand name (or buy a Dell at all which is why their revenues are hemmoraging)? Their strategy is looking more like a cheap, cost cutting Chinese PC clone model than a brand name.

    This is of course bad for America who must now depend on HP for made in America quality after IBM sold their PC business to Lenovo who is also losing its fans (not a big suprise since they have 0% innovation after IMB sold their business to them).
    Aug 31 07:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No Signs of Recovery in Semiconductor Industry [View article]
    LOL with the S&P tech stocks up significantly saying relatively speaking it's not outperforming is a bit misleading. Furthermore, since semis are cyclical as you mentioned, a trend upwards is more telling and indicative then the broader market because they should not move up at all if the cycle goes against them regardless of a broader based recovery.

    So the argument could go, they are a real recovery even if the broader market is a big false sign. Not to say they are on fire or a raging buy, just less prone to collapsing for no reason like the banking sector.
    Aug 31 07:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Doug Kass Goes All In Short [View article]
    How about this: We are addicted to low interest rates so any recovery with inflation will be greeted with rising interest rates and smackdown any sustainable recovery. Japan has been battling this for decades now. You would think we could learn vicariously, but I guess the Fed is too dumb to do that.

    Thus although Cass may be wrong about a meltdown, he is certainly probably correct that there won't be a strong recovery. I personally don't reccomend going short until the government blows all its stimulus funds next year. Bet on the hangover ony after the fireworks and the party.
    Aug 31 02:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Battery Research from Unexpected Sources - IBM [View instapost]
    We have long known exposing metal to oxidization and/or chemicals can yield electrons as well as even hydrogen. The failure most of the times is thet it is not rechargable. I would be most curious about the cost associated in recharging such a battery provided it can even be done without resmelting.
    Aug 29 08:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Liquidity Squeeze [View article]
    China has warned that they are concerned with inflation. You would think the US would notice as well, but as usual, Bernake is too busy patting himself on the back and getting kudoes for declaring he saved the world. In the meantime, he is once again asleep at the switch as we drown in easy money which is one reason why we got into this mess in the first place.
    Aug 28 12:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Want a Good Job? [View instapost]
    This reminds me of ancienct China where everyone wanted their child to become a government buraucrat because they made the most, got special powers, and were considered better than most other people because of the rigorous testing and requirements (only for those not politically connected). Inevitably this led to a completely moribund society that could not adapt to anything.

    By the way, I hope this chart doesn't include military service.
    Aug 27 11:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs' Trading Huddle: About Nothing? [View article]
    LOL Chinese walls can only be found in China. Actually it is a well known secret that institutions rely on sales and traders to feed information to special clients since the laws collaring analysts were passed.

    "By the way, I heard that there was an unconfirmed rumor" has replaced, "I'm thinking about reviewing/upgrading that stock." In reality, there is really little difference. Especially, since many fund managers fail to do the most basic fundamental research before a trade. Their job tends to be mainly mirroring an index and cutting any stock in it they think is suspect according to what random people tell them.

    This is not an issue with just Goldman. It is an issue with every brokerage firm. They all survive on proprietary trading and feeding clients full of secret rumors and innuendo. That is except when they try to move a stock with a well placed research report bomb. Oh the games they play...
    Aug 27 11:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Report: Flat and Bad [View article]
    Yes this is on top of all the government spending trying to prop up the economy. We are still waiting for the rest of the stimulus to make some of us rich before the government goes broke. I guess the good news is once the unemployment level drops off another 5% we should see claims drop by around 5% simply because there is that fewer people left to fire. Even this logic so far has failed to reign in the steep drop off in jobs.

    If the Bernake at the Federal Reserve wants to take credit for saving the economy, shouldn't he wait until we are at least no longer in a recession, the Fed doesn't have to hide all the bank loans it is buying and backstopping to keep them from going under, and doesn't have to buy US Treasury bonds at its failed auctions anymore? Perhaps he should put up a big "Mission Accomplished" sign over every unemployment office instead of announce economic victory everytime he meets bankers overseas where the public can't throw eggs in his face for such wild assertions.
    Aug 27 10:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Fights for Its Secrets [View article]
    The Fed consistantly argues that it remains answerable to no one whereas the Fed Chief constantly states they are answerable to the people. Well how in the world can they claim that when there is no public access to even their actions.

    Patrick Watson is right that if Bernake did save the world from his and his predecessor's miserable failures then disclosure should be fine now. And if they didn't this judgement call into light the flat lie that nothing has been solved (the literal truth). Furthermore such disclosure also will likely bring to light the gaping mark to market losses on its balance sheet the taxpaying public that they so dilligently protect with non-disclosure is now liable for.

    The simple fact is, all government and quasi-government institutions should be fully transparent save maybe the military and CIA. And all should be answerable to the public and/or the elected officials they appoint. This is called Representative Democracy. If the Fed doesn't like it they can move to N.Korea, Saudi Arabia, or Cuba. Even a democratic Iran wouldn't tolerate them.
    Aug 27 10:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Private Equity's Sweet Deal if Investment Rules Surrounding Small Banks Loosen [View article]
    This is disturbing. I also wrote a small blurb that will be coming out soon too. Allowing private equity and others who have interest above and beyond running a bank profitably puts our whole financial system at risk similar to the Japanese experience where the biggest banks were arms of giant conglomerates.

    Essentially, the FDIC (or bank insurance body) and central bank becomes hopelessly enmeshed with having to subsidize vested interests in order to keep the banking sector solvent leaving taxpayers with the bill. In Japan, it amounted to giving a constant stream of new and growing loans out to bankrupt construction copmpanies so they could pay interest on the old ones and using bank funds to support the parent company's failing businesses.

    Who only knows what ills this will result in. Rather than easing restrictions on banks and who can operate them, we should be tightening them. This is completely uncalled for and smacks of desperation for new bank funding sources.

    At this rate why not let everyone be a bank and tap low interest fed funds which no other financial system can compete with because it doesn't make economic sense. When we do that we essentially have reached the inevitable end result of government run banking, a single bank system run in a completely socialized economy.
    Aug 26 09:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Bernanke Are We Getting at the Fed? [View article]
    There is only one Fed. The one that cheerleads for the banking sector. After all, the Fed is essence is the most powerful oligolopy, trade union, and lobbyist in America today. It has been given the power self regulate its own shareholders (banks and financial institutions), print its own money, monopolize US bond issuances, and report to no one about even it's corporate shareholders. Can you say seedy?

    Greenspan, Bernake, and all other Fed chiefs largely fit under this roof consistently arguing for easy money for banks to make greater and greater spreads at the cost to our purchasing power and leaving more and more assets of the US in the financial insustry's hands. No other country on the planet had over 20% of all corporate profits going to the financial insustry like we did prior to this collapse. No wonder our economy was not healthy and all kids aspired only to play with numbers and be a Gordon Gekko. For a decade, the banking/financial sector has been the only major winner asides from healthcare (even tech is worse off). We can see that now after the collapse.
    Aug 25 10:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Healthcare: Lawmakers Caught Between Public Trust and the Devil [View article]
    Sad to say we are caught between a broken health care system and a socialized one. Although socialized healthcare has a habit of leading to financial ruin even for governments as rich as Japan, the US seems quite adept at running up deficits towards fiscal ruin with or without a public health care option. Thus I'd rather pay $700 billion where some people get surgury they need versus $700 billion going to multimillionaire bankrupt execurtives getting to ride on coroprate jets and pay themselves million dollar bonuses come rain or shine. There is a lot worse way to misuse public money than healthcare, and as far as I can see the US is already abusing the government this way.

    Thus, for me socialized medicine before socialized banks. Especially since we already socialized heathcare with medicare and medicade a long time ago. We just made it very inefficient and tied it up with lots of paperwork and red tape.

    If you don't believe we have ruined our healthcare we rank worst out of the top 20 nations in almost every health care metric including preventable deaths from illnesses (a little important don't you think), sudden infant mortality, and life expectancy. And this is going up against socialized medicine. We are behind Cananda and France (how embarassing). The only thing we rank 1st in is cost. We are choking off our economic viability with close to 20% of all GDP going to healthcare. This is inefficient and absurd. Taxes are bad enough. No wonder no one has disposable income.

    When blue dogs say we need to wait until after the recession really what they are saying is we must wait until tens of thousands of people are dead because they couldn't get the medical treatment when the most needed it during the time they were unemployed or were in the worst position to afford it. Even though I am fiscally conservative, I still have a heat.

    We need medical reform and we need it now, public option or not. The US medical establishment is a utter discrace, not because of bad doctors but because of the insurance and HMO leeches the Nixon administration put in place to run out medical system in the 60's.
    Aug 24 03:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Card Delinquency Wave Reaching Tidal Force [View article]
    Since it is easier to not pay your mortgage, demand refinancing, and walk away if you are underwater than it is to walk away from your credit card delinquencies under bankruptcy law (thanks to credit card lobbyists oftentimes you can't absolve this loss in bankruptcy filings) a rise in credit card delinquencies really represent the final capitualation for many people trying to keep their financial lives from a complete meltdown. This will undoubtedly represent a whole new wave of bank losses and foreclosures starting fall.

    As mentioned by commenters, it is much harder to play accounting games to cover this loss. Even mark to fantasy can't be used to cover the hole in banks balance sheets from these losses since they must be disclosed and reserves for defaults must be accrued immediately. Therefore, banks are likely to hold even tigher to the free government money they have already been given. Undoubtedly sooner or later they will clamor to get Congress to write a bill to help bail them out for this mess too under the guise of helping credit card holders get credit easier (TARPfor credit card holders). Don't be fooled yet again. Vote no on such an issue. Like TARP none of it will actually reach the consumer.

    As I mentioned before, any signs of recovery aren't coming from consumers but only from the government to those closest to the government. The rest of us are laid out to bake in an economic desert.
    Aug 24 01:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If Asset Prices Are Dropping, Why Are Bank Stocks Rising? [View article]
    The author has a very credible point. There is a disconnect between falling mortgage and commercial real estate combined with the subsequent increase of forclosures and bad loans and bank stocks. Primarily, it is the theory that the government will not only prevent large banks from going under but insure long term viability and profitability through a series of disasterous accounting loopholes, low interest Fed interest rates to fund badly performing long term loans, high credit card rates, government buying of bad debt, and Fed backstops.

    In all honesty I can't say they are wrong. Looking at the landscape of government handouts, waste, and moral hazard and terpitude, it looks like the government is willing to destitute 90% of all Americans to support the financial sector in our best interest. Their reasoning is simple, without a financial system the government couldn't help you anymore. Right! For some reason I'm willing to risk it.
    Aug 23 11:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SEC to Demand Loan Loss Clarity in MD&A Disclosure [View article]
    So far the SEC has been the worst regulator and proposed the worst methods for determining real value and real risk of any government agency. That's why Goldman Sacs loves them so much and refuses to use any sensible application of VaR insistingthey want to use the SECs that let Bear Stearns leverage over 40 to 1.

    The SEC is a captured entity by the brokerages first and big corporations and the rest of the financial sector second. Their proposal is wose even than mark to fantasy because at least that has to have some theoretical rationality to it. We need a real return to proper accounting that reveals the cost of real risk. The reason so many banks are failing is because such fantasy valuations make it impossible for anyone to properly assess the value and risk of any asset any company puts onto their balance sheet.

    Under the SEC's plan you bought a fake diamond you could call it a real one as long as you avoided getting a professional to assess it. That is until you go bankrupt. Then when the bank goes under the public gets the fake. This is so SEC.
    Aug 23 01:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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