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Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Why Safeway Could Rise by 40%-50% in 2011 [View article]
    We will see if Safeway can pass on their rising food costs onto the consumer easily. It seems Lucky is a major competitor but their logistics and prices are comparable to worse so I think they will do ok. If they can pass on the prices then they will be a start, if not they will have earnings compression. I'll watch it but maybe a straight agriculture play like commodity futures is better to play food inflation.
    Feb 27, 2011. 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Draw Down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve [View article]
    I support stopping additions to the strategic oil reserve if prices go over $100 in the near term. It will put a cap on the oil price rise and it was successfully used by Clinton to alleviate spikes in prices.

    In fact, the strategic oil reserve is much the same as government grain reserve purchases. It is a commodity subsidy to support prices and guarantee demand. The only difference is that we are subsidizing non-Americans with thhe oil subsidy at a cost of a rising trade deficit andf Federal deficit. In fact, we buy it as they pump it out of the ground and then pour it back into a great big hole (a salt mine). This is a bit ludicrious, especially since we are blocking so many oil wells in the US from being expoited for oil.

    If we need oil we should allow more drilling, and if we don't then we should not be buying it up to increase demand. Face it. The US has no energy policy and its actions make little to no sense. Now we spend billions forcing gas producers to mix ethanol into gas and make the government subsidize it so we can get worse fuel efficiency at higher prices and increase food prices 10% or more. In the meantimes since every state uses a different formula it justifies gas producers to monopolize the production so they can raise prices even more. The Middle East and oil companies are rich off of our stupidity.
    Feb 27, 2011. 02:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thank You, Mr. President [View article]
    Methanol makes a lot more sense. I'd be for ethanol if it was cost efficient and came from algae or some other source. Destroying your food supply to make fuel is just asinine and the cost in rising food prices hurts consumers more than it helps. The market will inevitably find a technology that will replace fossil fuels. At that time the government can help them expand, however, they probably won't need to since it will make economic sense. The marketis great at funding economically viable technology. It rejected ethanol a long time ago as a viable solution.

    LNG makes the most sensible near term solution. Public transport should run on it. Even China uses methanol to save money and decrease their reliance on gasoline. We should be following them (you would have thought we would have been the leaders on it but Washington keeps trying to create politically motivated subsidies and givaways rather than make viable solutions. Enough is enough).
    Feb 27, 2011. 12:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whitney Tilson: Why We Covered Our Netflix Short [View article]
    I am usually not a short term trader, but FYI I closed my Netflix Puts just now after seeing all the money market makers have made selling puts. Options closes will support Netflix on a technical side for now. I may re-enter when the effects of Amazon etc are clearer. Sadly its dangerous shorting a high beta stock too long.
    Feb 24, 2011. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Amazon's Prime Streaming Will Disrupt Netflix [View article]
    I am usually not a short term trader, but FYI I closed my Netflix Puts just now after seeing all the money market makers have made selling puts. Options closes will support Netflix on a technical side for now. I may re-enter when the effects of Amazon etc are clearer.
    Feb 24, 2011. 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DVDs Are Dead: Is the Media Retailer Far Behind? [View article]
    FYI I closed my Netflix Puts just now after seeing all the money market makers have made selling puts. Options closes will support Netflix on a technical side for now. I may re-enter when the effects of Amazon etc are clearer.
    Feb 24, 2011. 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DVDs Are Dead: Is the Media Retailer Far Behind? [View article]
    Regional zoning makes VDVs even more unappealing and decreases international sales of movies, etc. The movie industry's drive to monetize at the customer's expense is going to destroy themselves. Apple TV, Amazon, and Google will use low cost movie downloads to get people to buy their boxes. Fetflix and others will get run over.

    I'm short Netflix because the model doesn't work when donloaded movies are used in a tablet PC sales war.
    Feb 24, 2011. 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Takes a Shot at Netflix With Unlimited Streaming [View article]
    Amazon priced their offering to break Netflix's model. Netflix must either stop signing expensive deals that run up their costs for content ansd/or cut their prices to a point they aren't making money on download subscriptions, both are unsavory. However, Netflix is only roadkill on Amazon's rush against Apple's tablet market. I expect a new Kindle or Kindle-like tablet that uses downloadable movies as a hook later this year. That means the downloadable movie market ceases to be a profit center for all.

    I shorted Netflix simply because you don't go up against Amazon and win. The least you get off with is a broken leg and black eye. Ask Borders and Barnes and Noble if you don't believe me.
    Feb 23, 2011. 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Food Prices Worrisome? Depends [View article]
    First higher food prices hit the lower class the hardest and is a neccesity. So the pain is felt more deeply. Secondly food prices in the US CPI is one of the most manipulated as the government uses substitution to offset real food prices such as replacing steak with ground beef with, god forbid, dog food. As long as the nutritional value remains roughly the same they can replace inflation with a substitute item, like turkey dinners with peanut butter and jelly sandwiches. To them you are equally well off and there is no inflation. To your stomach there is a vast difference.
    Feb 17, 2011. 12:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goodbye Mubarak, Hello Debt Crisis [View article]
    Europe's taxes with VAT is already so high it has been killing their economy for decades and effectively doubles the retail price of all goods. Anything more and they won't have a lingering recession, they'll have a depression and revolts. The simple fact is Europe has the same problem x5 the US has, government workers and pensions siphoning off the country's wealth. It goes to show there is no end to the waste and greed in the public sector. Aside from nationalized health that provide base health care for their population, the rest should be swept out the door.

    The only efficient and effective socialized system we see in Europe is the scandinavian countries. The other countries can not emulate them but use them as a golden example of the wonderful potential of higher taxation as they rob their population blind and make it impossible to buy anything. Then they make socialized solutions to offer neccesities at a discount.

    Without VAT there wouldn't be such a need for socialization because things would be naturally affordable. Just like how the US socialized health care has made medical costs unaffordable, Europe has the problem with everything. Government makes its own ills then professes to be the solution. That is sad that people don't see the worf for what it is.
    Feb 15, 2011. 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Waiting to Buy the Dip in Oil [View article]
    Look at gas prices in the US. When oil rises they rack up gas and when it falls it doesn't retreat to the same levels. Demand is weaker in the face of higher gas prices. Yet the Mid-East addicted to exporting it never cut the tap. Oil may keep sliding until the summer driving season. That's what seasonal cyclicality points to.
    Feb 15, 2011. 01:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing in the Oil Sands: 4 Stocks [View article]
    The value of the oil sands is pretty much accounted for. SU has been desperately trying to buy other oil production areas at the cost to their shareholders. Rather than monetizing their oil sands $ they are buying $85-110 per barrel production areas that lose money. It's great if gas runs out but otherwise it's a big drain on their cash and profits.

    Exxon remains one of the lowest cost per barrel producers and laughs at the higher cost per barrel producers. Oil sands is a good deal ex-the environmental mess, but obviously Canada thinks its an acceptable loss for the billions of dollars it makes.
    Feb 14, 2011. 08:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • iBio: Risky, But Early Stage Pipeline Potentially Offers Long-Term Reward [View article]
    Thanks for your reply. The misunderstanding about Frauhofer is one best corrected. Still, it would be nice if IBIO could actually operate a lab and testing on its own with this valuation. Operations are the key to success, outsourcing is not all together a good model for a start-up.
    Feb 14, 2011. 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cash May Trump Equities This Week [View article]
    Few people keep raw cash, it is mostly held in bonds and the bond market is down over inflation woes. I don't see pepople moving heavier into bonds anytime in the next few years. In fact there is a stampede out of bonds. Unless the US falls into another recession I'd stay with the sock market. However, you are rightthat much of stock gains came from a devaluated buck and a resurgence in US $ will lead to a weaker stock market. But that is mostly due to foreign investment money flows than anything else. The higher the dollar the more expensive it is for foreigners to move money into the US market to buy up everything.

    With the US government going broke with deficits and dumping on the dollar its a wonder everything won't be owned by foreigner countries in the next 10 years.
    Feb 14, 2011. 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • iBio: Risky, But Early Stage Pipeline Potentially Offers Long-Term Reward [View article]
    It only takes less than $200k to manipulate this stock. It is reasonable for the promoters to try to keep it up for new issues. Buyer beware. I won't be posting anymore on IBIO as I wait for the science.
    Feb 14, 2011. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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