Seeking Alpha

Moon Kil Woong

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Moon Kil Woong's Comments BY TICKER:
AA, AAON, AAPL, ABAT, ABIO, ABT, ABX, ACF, ACN, ADBE, ADP, ADRU, ADT, AEGR, AFL, AGG, AGNC, AGOL, AGQ, AIG, AIQUF, AIQUY, AKAM, ALLRF, ALTR, AMAT, AMBC, AMD, AMGN, AMKR, AMSC, AMTD, AMZN, ANF, ANFI, ANGI, AONEQ, APU, ARCO, ARGT, ARNA, ARTH, ASASF, ASML, ASTM, ATHN, ATK, ATML, ATSG, ATVI, ATW, AUMN, AUY, AVEO, AVL, AVNW, AVP, AWAY, AXPW, AXTI, BA, BAB, BABA, BAC, BARL, BATS, BAX, BBBB, BBOX, BBRY, BBY, BCRX, BCS, BH, BHP, BIDU, BK, BKUNA, BLK, BLND, BMY, BND, BODY, BP, BRCD, BRCM, BRK.A, BRK.B, BX, C, CAB, CAF, CAG, CALM, CANN, CAR, CAT, CDE, CDNS, CELG, CEMP, CEO, CEPH, CF, CFC, CHC, CHGG, CHK, CHL, CIM, CIT, CL, CLNE, CLNT, CLX, CMCSA, CMCSK, CMG, CMI, CNB, CNDO, CNQR, COH, COHR, COIN, CONN, COP, COPX, CORN, CORS, COST, CPRT, CQB, CRAY, CRDS, CRM, CROX, CRUS, CRZO, CSCO, CSIQ, CTAS, CTIX, CTL, CTXS, CVLT, CVM, CVX, CWCO, CXW, CYB, CYCC, CYNK, DAKT, DANG, DB, DBA, DBC, DBLE, DD, DE, DECK, DELL, DENN, DENT, DF, DG, DGL, DGP, DGZ, DHR, DHX, DIA, DIS, DKS, DLTR, DMND, DNDN, DNKN, DRYS, DSS, DTLK, DVN, DWA, DXD, DXJ, DXLG, DZZ, E, EA, EADSY, EAT, EBAY, EBIX, EDAC, EFA, EGB, EGF, EGHT, EGOV, EIGI, EMIS, EOG, EPZM, EQIX, ERO, ETFC, EUFN, EWG, EWJ, EWP, EWQ, EWS, EWT, EWU, EWW, EWY, EXAR, EXC, EXK, EXL, EZCH, EZPW, F, FB, FBIZ, FBP, FCEL, FCX, FDN, FDO, FDX, FFIV, FFNT, FIATY, FMCC, FNMA, FPI, FPX, FRFHF, FSLR, FULL, FXB, FXE, FXI, FXY, GA, GAGA, GALE, GASS, GCF, GDX, GE, GEOS, GERN, GES, GEX, GG, GLD, GLL, GLMFF, GLRE, GLW, GM, GMCR, GME, GMED, GMO, GNC, GNRC, GNTX, GOOG, GOOGL, GPL, GPS, GRMN, GRPN, GS, GSFVF, GTAT, GUYFF, GZPFY, HAIN, HAL, HBM, HD, HIG, HIMX, HLF, HNHPF, HOGS, HOLX, HPQ, HRB, HRBN, HSBC, HTA, HUM, HYFXY, HYGS, IAU, IBIO, IBM, ICE, IEF, IHF, IMUC, INCY, INFU, INFY, INTC, INTX, IOC, IR, IRDM, IRL, ISRG, ITB, ITLT, ITLY, ITYBY, IVV, IWM, IYF, IYH, IYJ, IYK, IYR, IYT, IYW, IYZ, JBHT, JBL, JCP, JJC, JKS, JMBA, JNJ, JNK, JNPR, JPM, JWN, K, KB, KBE, KBH, KCG, KERX, KIE, KIRK, KKD, KLAC, KLIC, KME, KMP, KNPRF, KO, KODK, KORS, LDHL, LECO, LEH, LEHMQ, LEHNQ, LGF, LGZ, LINE, LIWA, LL, LMNX, LMT, LNG, LNKD, LNVGY, LOCK, LOGI, LOW, LPDX, LQD, LULU, LVLT, MA, MAS, MCD, MCF, MCO, MCP, MDT, MEOH, MFGLQ, MIL, MKL, MKSI, MMM, MNKD, MNST, MOGLF, MON, MORL, MOS, MOV, MRO, MRVL, MS, MSFT, MSLP, MT, MTGE, MTL, MU, MUB, MUSA, MZG, NAMG, NBG, NBR, NBS, NEM, NEON, NEPT, NEWN, NFLX, NKE, NLR, NLY, NOK, NRP, NSPH, NTOIF, NUAN, NUE, NUS, NUVA, NVAX, NVDA, NXPI, NYT, NYX, OAS, OGZPY, OIH, OIL, OLN, ONNN, ONTY, OPTT, ORAN, ORCL, ORLY, OSK, OVTI, P, PAAS, PALM, PAY, PAYX, PBI, PBPB, PEIX, PEP, PFE, PG, PHMD, PHYS, PIP, PKB, PKT, PLCM, PLUG, PLX, PM, PNRA, POAHF, POT, PPLT, PRKR, PRLB, PRXI, PSLV, PSQ, PUDA, QCOM, QCOR, QLGC, QQQ, QUAL, RAD, RAIL, RAX, RBS, REE, REGI, REGN, REMX, RENN, REZ, RGR, RHHBY, RIO, RIOM, RL, RMBS, RNF, RPTP, RSH, RST, RSX, RT, RTH, RTN, RWO, S, SAND, SAP, SAY, SBMRY, SBUX, SCHW, SCRT, SCTY, SDRL, SDS, SE, SEA, SEAC, SGI, SGLRF, SGOL, SH, SHLD, SHLO, SIEGY, SINA, SJM, SJW, SKUL, SKX, SKYY, SLM, SLV, SLW, SMH, SNDK, SNE, SOCL, SODA, SPA, SPDL, SPF, SPLK, SPLS, SPPI, SPXS, SPXU, SPY, SQNM, SSNLF, SSTK, SSYS, STLEF, STMP, STP, STX, STXS, SU, SUNE, SUSQ, SVVC, SWC, SWHC, SWK, SWY, SYK, SYMC, SYX, SYY, SZYM, T, TAOIF, TAP, TBF, TBT, TDC, TEVA, TGT, TIF, TIP, TJX, TLB, TLO, TLT, TM, TNH, TOL, TOT, TOYS, TPCS, TRLG, TRW, TSCDF, TSCO, TSLA, TSM, TSRA, TST, TUMI, TWC, TWTR, TWX, TXN, TZA, UAE, UAN, UBG, UBS, UDN, UDOW, UEC, UGA, UGL, UNF, UNG, UNH, UNIS, UNXL, UPS, URA, USG, USO, UTX, UUP, UVV, UVXY, V, VALE, VARI, VCVOF, VHC, VIA, VICL, VIFL, VLO, VMW, VNM, VRNG, VRTX, VSH, VSR, VVUS, VXX, VZ, WATT, WBSN, WDC, WFC, WFM, WHR, WIT, WLP, WM, WMB, WMT, WPRT, WPSHF, WWWW, WZGRF, X, XHB, XIDEQ, XIN, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLNX, XLP, XOM, XPO, XRT, XRX, YGE, YHOO, YNDX, YOKU, YUM, Z, ZIOP, ZLTQ, ZNGA, ZROZ, ZSTN
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Probability of a Crisis Will Build in 2010 [View article]
    I am not as pessimistic as others, but I don't see a giant leap forward in stocks this year and I do believe there is substantial risk on the downside and volatility.

    Undoubtedly, the Fed will be too accommodative. Furthermore the Fed's crackdown on bank action against credit card holders will be the first positive thing done for real Americans and can help the broader market as the Fed drains the QE pond.

    There are a lot of currents going on here. I expect a lot of choppy water but don't see an eminent catalyst for a crash yet.
    Jan 14, 2010. 01:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inequality and the Macro-Economy [View article]
    I think you are arguing against financial extremism, as in extreme weath disparities.

    Where these disparities exist in extreme amounts there can often be clear links between the enrichment and misuse of power, corruption, entrenched political power, cronyism, and runaway monopolies and oligarchies. The US and China best look deeply within their own economic workings to figure out why these disparities exist in such an extreme regardless of good or bad economic performance.

    Indeed, the fact that US financial did so poorly yet continue to pay so richly belies the fact that the extreme economic disparities between bankers and the public are not justified by exceptionalism or any economic fundamentals whatsoever as they may argue from a capitalist standpoint. The issue is not competitiveness but a lack of competitiveness and entrenched power regardless of performance. To deny thorough scrutiny of this is to deny any hope of fixing the US economic system and its persistent overleverage and meltdowns.
    Jan 14, 2010. 01:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Too-Big-to-Fail Tax [View article]
    As far as I can tell the big banks have been moving the costs to their customers even before such fees have been imposed. Likewise, a move to smaller more healthy banks would be prudent. If anyone hasn't forgotten, the idea was to make TBTF banks smaller. So far they have done nothing but grow.
    Jan 14, 2010. 01:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman's Conflicts [View article]
    The second GS became a bank and took government money it's privilege, if it had any to front run its clients (which is against the law according to the SEC that doesn't investigate or enforce its rules unless it wants a little extra extortion cash) ended.

    To imply otherwise is incorrect. In all cases it is wrong, morally, ethically, and legally.
    Jan 14, 2010. 12:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Should Investigate [View article]
    a fat panda: There is no dawinism here. These TBTF banks and financials are like giant amoebas. There is no reason for them to evolve.

    They don't need to manage who to lend mortgages to because they either package them into bonds buy insurance (even if the insurer can't cover the insurance) and dump them on their customers or dump them onto Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

    They don't need to be solvent or get depositors. Depositors don't care who they deposit their money to because the FDIC covers all banks alike thus depositing to the closest bank means more than a solvent one. And even if they fall short on deposits they just go to the free money zirp ATM machine the Federal reserve has made.

    They don't care about who they lend to as long as they can get the Federal Reserve to backstop them or outright buy their assets. And they don't care about losing money because they can't go bankrupt.

    All that matters is to be as big as possible so that their priveledged position caused by holding the US economy hostage is not disrupted.

    If anything, this horrific abomination of capitalism should be investigated and stopped.
    Jan 12, 2010. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China: Doubling Down on Exports Was a Mistake [View article]
    Here is another argument for a vast majority of domestic Chinese growth (note this does not include advancements and increases in Chinese exports) to be driven by the real estate market from the China Economic Times.

    For 2010, the Asian Development Bank has put its economic growth forecast for China at 8.9 percent, while the International Monetary Fund predicted growth of nine percent.

    China’s economy grew by 8.9 percent in the third quarter of 2009 — the fastest pace in a year — after expanding by 7.9 percent in the second quarter and 6.1 percent in the first, the slowest pace in more than a decade.

    Zhang said real estate investment was expected to grow by 30 to 40 percent in 2010 and become the “main source driving investment growth.”

    By the way Zhang is a macroeconomist at the State Development Research Center in China. Such research is the reason China's leadership has been calling for measures to stop the out of control real estate market even though it takes a 40% down payment to buy a second home (and you thought lending was tight in the US).
    Jan 11, 2010. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China: Doubling Down on Exports Was a Mistake [View article]
    Regarding comments about my statement: First I said real estate. Developments in infrastructure also fits into real estate (although their green energy investments are mainly for export not domestic demand). Those funds then seep down into the market and drive the rest of the economy. Second I am referring to domestic consumption. China has made great strides in developing even more things to export. However, doesn't that just keep China dependent on US and foreign demand.

    Regarding property, the growth in it has been balooning for quite some time. Enough to double property prioces in some areas 3x over in this decade. As this wash of money goes into mostly property it becomes an overriding part of the economy rivaling international demand. Although it later permeates other sectors of the economy, I think it is fair to assume that without it there would be no real Chinese domestic growth, thus formenting the basis of my argument that most of Chinese domestic growth is in real estate.

    "Ozeki, an executive vice president for Pimco in Tokyo, noted that the total credit for the property sector in China has grown to 40 percent of gross domestic product, the annual value of all the country's goods and services."

    Feel free to disagree. I just thought I'd clarify for those who are misrepresenting my comment.
    Jan 11, 2010. 04:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Centuries of Bubbles [View instapost]
    The last gold rush addition is a bit of a stretch. Most of the value in gold's recent run can be attributed to broad based commodities runs and the decline in the purchasing power of the dollar. If indeed there is another bubble in gold it reaches across to most all commodities.
    Jan 9, 2010. 05:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Social Cohesion and Sovereign Default [View article]
    Social cohesion often depends upon corruption followed by censorship and oppression. The more corrupt the less socially cohesive a country is. A natural counter to this is to move towards censorship and oppression that masks the glaring weaknesses corruption has made.

    Thus one can track the corruption that is hard to do and is often harder to do as it becomes increasingly corrupt. Or to track the governments response which is to more towards censorship and an oppressive regime. Preventing government from censorship has a natural cleansing effect towards corruption simply because it's hard for them to keep their state if corruption gets out of hand.

    As for sovereign debt default, although taxpayer revolutions and such play a part in default risk, the largest risk usually remains in the country's elected officials and their central banks. Simply put, if they feel that they can benefit from not paying and less credit they will do so. In the case of the US, the powers that be can't see how they can survive without ever increasing international credit to fund their exorbitant needs which taxes both their citizens and the world's ability to fund them.

    Thus I don't see the US government wanting to go down that path until they find can't tax the US citizen into abject poverty.
    Jan 9, 2010. 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking for a Fed Apology [View article]
    The Fed and Bernanke still adhere to not preventing asset bubbles, not regulating banks unless there is political need to (like a confirmation which is the only reason they are only now trying to stamp out bank credit card abuses after decades of recklessness), and trying oh so very poorly to solve bubble collapses after the fact.

    Greenspan made an elequent argument that the Federal Reserve can't spot and thus shouldn't regulate asset bubbles during his tenure. I would agree. They certainly can't spot them and shouldn't be intrusted to regulate them or anything for that matter. We need an organization that actually knows something about economics, not a banker's club to regulate and enforce bad lending and interest rate policies by banks.

    In short, we need a real bank regulation arm, not a tokenistic one like the Federal Reserve has been and still is.
    Jan 7, 2010. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Economists Didn't Anticipate the Financial Crisis [View article]
    A capitalist system con not survive without downturns, requiring responsibility for economic decisions, and risk with real reward, disincentives to being foolish, and losses. What the Federal government and Federal Reserve are doing is trying to make a Mickey Mouse economy where everything is happy all the time. All you get is a bunch of people and companies unaware that there is such a thing as winter, bad weather, downturns, or adversity until they are starving and unable to do anything the least bit productive or efficient.

    As long as there is a big fat government cushion between risk and realization of losses people will just keep jumping off buildings thinking nothing bad can happen until they go splat on the sidewalk of economic reality.
    Jan 5, 2010. 03:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Prices Forecast Housing Stability [View article]
    The higher prices over the year may be reflected of the minor rebound in the US already, nothing more. Does anyone have statistics showing lumber prices bweing a leading indicator as the author is inferring? Personally I would doubt it. Housing starts might be more forward looking then materials going into homebuilding. And even then, a lot of starts get scrapped these days, thus that statistic is more and more a sentiment indicator than a reflection of reality.
    Jan 2, 2010. 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Debt Scheme: Is It All Just a Ponzi Scheme? [View article]
    The Bloomber article is closer to what is going on. What the federal government is eating in commitments ansd shouldering on taxpayers without your notice makes American's renewed commitment to savings absolutely worthless. Worse yet, it is going to the worst businesses and most immoral in society.
    Jan 2, 2010. 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2010 Economic Trends: Paths of Least Resistance [View article]
    Sorry to hear about Steve passing away.

    Oil consumption, asides from JP Morgan and others trying to gamble on it as a commodity by keeping tankers from porting, will be driven by the Chinese and emerging world economies. Fortunately, oil demand is not rising significantly in the US. Also fortunately, Americans are still saving and working off their debt even though the powers that be would rather have Americans living paycheck to paycheck with no assets or savings to speak of.

    I hope many people vowed to work off their credit card debt this New Years Eve.
    Jan 2, 2010. 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Easing in the Eurozone [View article]
    Thanks Bluesky for the bringing the conversation to earth. There wasn't a Eurozone spending agreement France and Germany didn't find a way to violate. Given their relative health compared to the rest of Europe that says alot about the rest of Europe.

    As for the US, the debt clock doesn't include the unfunded liabilities which makes our government obligations look patently absurd. They are. That's why the youth of today don't expect to get a penny from Social Security after the boomers are through with it.

    It makes you wonder when if ever the world's governments will face the reality about the absolute mess they have created being irresponsible for decades.
    Dec 27, 2009. 05:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
11,158 Comments
35,237 Likes