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Moon Kil Woong

 
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Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Averages [View article]
    The jump is good but personally I'd be more confident if the upwards move was lett abrupt and more gradual. We will see if this choppy up and down action stabilizes with a gradual upward bias. Let us hope so, at least for a quarter or two.
    Jun 16, 2010. 12:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Last Week's Collapsing ECRI Leading Indicator Was Not a Recession Signal [View article]
    The ERCI is just an added volatility metric on top of an already volatile market. When the market rises it looks like it will go to the moon. Any correction looks like a full blown collapse. Sensationalists love this even though it is just reflecting what the market already knows. With a billion data points to keep track.

    It is best just to watch the market itself and try to figure out the drivers behind it. ECRI provides no real insight.
    Jun 15, 2010. 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday FX Brief: Teetering on the Brink of a Currency Collapse [View article]
    I think the world will survive the fallout of rogue EU states that fail to show a modicum of fiscal restraint. If not the world is in a lot sorrier state than imagined. The effects of their imminent demise on EU and global demand and sentiment has been greatly exaggerated. And even that default isn't so imminent (due to bailouts). The only thing that keeps this on the burner holding stocks back is that the EU has shown what a poor job it does when dealing with a crisis, big or small.

    It amounts to half of them sticking each other with sharp objects and blaming everyone and half of them telling everyone that this is good excuse to raid ever solvent country to pay for the insolvent. Perhaps communism did win over Europe? Or perhaps anarchy has won. I still can't decide.
    Jun 15, 2010. 03:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Market Tune Change in June? [View article]
    I think the end of last week solidified support. As long as earnings hold up I don't see why the Dow won't go higher, but I believe the EU and other global worries guarantee a bit of volatility as we go up.

    We will see what happens to a stimulus unwind. If there is no replacement packages later this year I wouldn't be too bullish on stocks in 2011. Decreased stimulus tends to lead to market indigestion a few months after the effects trickle through the economy.
    Jun 12, 2010. 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Initial Take on Today's ECB Statement [View article]
    1) The EU is still fractured and no one can come together and agree on anything.
    2) There is still no viable solution
    3) There is no long term solution to the crisis save making the well off countries finance indefinitely the not so well off. Gee talk about World Bank II. The US funds the most for that grand institution as it goers bankrupt slowly itself.
    4) Really the EU is in denial and hopes that the effect of these crisis will manifest themselves in another few years, just in time for another great downturn.

    I have learned one thing investing. Don't look to clueless people for accurate information.
    Jun 11, 2010. 05:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Idle' Corporate Cash Not Really Enough to Help the Economic Recovery Long-Term [View article]
    Idle cash in companies goes into bank accounts which gets loaned out. I am less concerned with this idle cash than I am with banks sitting on government funds. Sure it sterilizes the money like it didn't exist save for all the magic interest they get loaning it back to the government at higher rates. But it does nothing to fulfill the policy goal of stimulating the economy or thwarting a recession.

    The worse thing that can happens with those investing not saving money is that it is put into the bank and not enough people wish to borrow to get full action from the money multiplier. That is an issue of borrowing and loaning more than it is someone saving.

    In the case of banks sitting on Federal reserve primary money or government money going to them is multitudes worse. Government money increases debt to the government while not loaning it prevents its circulation. Federal Reserve primary funny money not used also prevents its circulation. The only benefit being that banks get to pad their earnings off of the interest and devaluation of the dollar. So let's please complain about, not companies saving but what banks are doing to the money supply.
    Jun 11, 2010. 02:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Sales Numbers Sadden Speculators [View article]
    The good thing about less spending is less debt. If that is the case moderate sales is acceptable, providing savings rises. No one is expecting a giant bull in sales as far as I know.
    Jun 11, 2010. 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Equities Update: Rebound Mood Brings Best Session for Stocks in Several Weeks [View article]
    This bounce shows a pretty strong sign for bottom support above 9,800-9,900. It is way too early to tell if a run up rally can be sustained with many large up days being erased by down days recently. Don't sell, but I would be hesitant to bull into any new positions.
    Jun 10, 2010. 05:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Abercrombie’s Comps Fall in May [View article]
    Abacrombie is funny in that it sells clothes by displaying models with as little clothes as possible. It will not be hard to eventually displace it (sexy is an easy model to copy). If you look at their data, Hollister Surf Clothes (which is another funny brand because Hollister is a landlocked boring farm town in California) had helped displaced their main brand lackluster growth but is also about as silly as their main brand.

    Sure their target market kids, teens, and college students are easily deceived, but they are also trend oriented. A&F is a fad quickly running out of fad appeal. In 5 years their brand will look dated like "that's what my older brother used to wear".
    Jun 10, 2010. 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the Payments System Should be Regulated [View article]
    It amazes me how inefficient banks and financial institutions continue to be. And it amazes me how the public can except paying ridiculous fees on things that cost less than a penny.

    The government can institute frictioness payment systems. I would tend to agree they can even set up a unified system that all banks can use for transactions. The problem for banks and why they don't is because it makes it too easy for customers (income centers or sheep in bankers eyes) to move their money out of inefficient banks (which most are). This is why it must be mandated or instituted.

    As for credit cards, that deals with loans. The government has always had a right to outlaw usury and I don't see why credit card companies can't be prohibited from this as well. Anyone requiring 15+ % interest to cover their risk of default shouldn't have a credit card in the first place. Those that do pay over 15% annualized interest on their credit cards overwhelmingly are being scammed since over 50% of Americans have these types of rates on at least one of their credit cards. Regulating credit card companies or developing a new more frictionless system would be a boon to the whole economy and a death knell to Visa and Mastercard.

    This of course doesn't take into account the 1-2% back end fees they extort out of businesses. The exchange of money has never been more inefficient than it is today.
    Jun 9, 2010. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Demographics of Housing Bubbles [View article]
    I think the issue is more that the population is not growing and may be declining while banks keep financing more and more construction for what? Construction companies could care less if there is real demand for new units, they just want to justify continuing to get new construction loans to pay off their leveraged positions. Banks are happy to comply so they aren't seen as defaults which then they would have to write down.

    It is this way in Japan, Asia, America, and most certainly Spain and Europe. I don't think it has to do with young people saving or not. As far as I can tell it's the old who save, the young manage to spend it all.
    Jun 9, 2010. 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Creeping Consumer Concerns Create Commotion [View article]
    Even if Bernanke saw a double dip he would not say it. So why do people hang on the Fed's words when they either lie to support the market or delude themselves so much they forget every economic tenant they learned in college? I'd prefer an astrologer over listening to the Federal reserve. At least I know they can only con me out of the $10 bucks I paid them, not my life's savings.
    Jun 9, 2010. 01:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hungary: The Hungarian View [View article]
    Felix, I agree with you most of the time but the simple fact is, would you buy Hungarian bonds. Supply and demand. There are no buyers and for good reason. Hungary has a terrible history of fiscal management and it is doubtful they will actually embrace austerity. They have asked for bailouts and eurozone budgetary wavers before. The threat of default is very real.

    As mentioned, the blame game in Hungary has started even before they take their bitter medicine.

    The only fortunate thing about this is it has almost no impact on the US besides raising more jitters about PIIGS. Their situation is reminiscent of what happened to Iceland. So it is not that big of a surprise. What matters most is Spain and Portugal and Spain is not defaulting anytime this year. For them it is a looming crisis due to an over-leveraged public holding deflating property more than anything else (reminds you a bit like what is going on in the US doesn't it).
    Jun 7, 2010. 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Look Firmer, Nasdaq Leads [View article]
    A strong leadership position from tech and nasdaq gives bulls hope for a real recovery private sector recovery. We will see if it persists and if it can pull the market out of its seesawing doldrums.
    Jun 4, 2010. 04:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard Earnings Scorecard [View article]
    Basically, if you want to build any tech portfolio you will be adding to Cisco and HP to compete with the given tech index. Given that this has been a good strategy year in and year out I don't see how you can have a neutral position on these stocks unless you are not positive on tech whatsoever. If that's the case, I really feel sorry foer the whole US economy because if tech doesn't lead the way out into a real recovery then there probably won't be any.
    Jun 2, 2010. 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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