The Hand: You are right. Funny how the strong currencies are the loser. Who would have thought it. Poor Japan. With the yen over 90 to the dollar they are looking at a very cold 2009.
I think they should ask them what they are doing with the CDS premiums they booked as profit even though it's anticipated AIG and others will never be solvent enough to pay out. Or about their own CDS book. They still remain off book. We wanna see them. Unfortunately, the second they showed them to the world they'd be bankrupt. A little problem. And also if you read the date all the CDS are written they were all written under the tenure of our now glorified Treasury had Hank Paulson.
And they wonder why everyone is so cynical these days. So we know Goldman's view on the real estate market I guess. We only sell what's liquid because what's illiquid will bankrupt us.
I bought CAT as an inflation hedge around $70. Sadly, it's down but it's ok because 90% of my money is cash. People will still need farm equipment and energy equipment esp. alternative energy is probably going to do fine. This is one of the only stocks I own. Good pick.
I don't care much about the rest. If you want safety keep cash. If you want profit, keep cash. If you are worrying about inflation in a down market it will always start with food related companies because that's the first thing people think about while starving, "FOOD at any price".
LOL you missed 1 thing in your analysis. You left out the fact Bernake is stupid stupid stupid and thinks the only way out of a crisis is make funny money and dump it in a big bankers playground so they can swim in it until their hearts are content enough to think the world is "fantastic".
Exploring Madoff's Ponzi Scheme Will Unveil the Causes of This Global Monetary Crisis [View article]
I would deem to say, the reserve requirement is not really the bottom of the reason for the recession, however, it is another symptom of the lax financial protections in the US similar to the abolishment of the Glass Stegal act, the lack of any regulation on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, writing of 0 down flex rate mortgages, CDS and CDO contracts with no oversight, and the like.
It does however explain why everyone is falling all over themselves to acquire bad banks that have a lot of cash and no reserve requirement since they have convinced all their depositors to put their money in FDIC unprotected accounts. That is until the Treasury guaranteed those funds to facilitate their buyout.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. F4Q08 (Qtr End 11/28/08) Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
Curbs-in LOL. No one ever bothers to notice that the head of the Treasury Paulson was the main architect of CDS contracts that buried AIG and most of Goldman;s clients. Strangely, Goldman made gains on all of their losses until they could no longer pay. Now he uses public funds to keep them out of bankruptcy so they can keep paying like the good cash cows he so carefully bred to feed his honorable institution.
After Watching 60 Minutes, Fitch Takes Hatchet to Alt-A Mortgages [View article]
k9s-4-k8 You are right. First off the ratings agencies are suppose to rate based on correct probability and use foresight. That is they are suppose to be ahead of the curve not behind. Unfortunately they are sucking too many kneecaps to even see anything.
They clearly aren't doing their job because doing their job isn't in their job description. They are more like the mafia collecting fees to insure the government, police, and news media don't come a looking while their "clients" are fleecing the public.
Why Would Anyone Buy T-Bills at 0%? [View article]
aitvarus. Yes funny how no one thinks of the consequences.... Little steps. The blind will never see. Although I'm not a conspiracy theorist on normal days, I do dee where trends lead to. Especially when it means someone can make my $ worthless without congressional and Presidential approval.
Will Monetizing the Federal Deficit Cause Inflation? [View article]
lounsbury59... We need more insigtful people like yourself. Sadly, the people who take time to learn about $ and economics is appalling. Look at who's running the teasury as a good example. He clearly only went to class to learn how to scam people with CDS and CDO's. So far he has proved 0 competency in even reducing the recessionary pressures even though publicly people commend him (ie kiss his feet) partially because we hope he gets something done and partially because the banks are groveling for free $ to keep them from failing. Complementing people is always a good tactic before accepting $25 billion from them.
The stable relationship of lower risk lower rewards was smashed by the mortgage interest that tried proving high rewards equalled low risk. Then got drunk on it.
Now the fed is doing it again lowering interest rates and guaranteeing higher risk money markets, mortgage bonds, etc. the same protections as bank deposits. No wonder banks can't get $ and can't loan $. With lower rates they already punished investors by the tune of around $300 billion annually in interest payments. If it goes much lower people will do what they did in Japan, start taking money out of the bank and stashing it in pillows since they earn the same interest rate there as banks = $0.
Really, did they learn anything since the depression when they pay banks for parking $ in the fed where it is frozen solid and gets loaned to no one. Where they issue tons of treasuries sucking up all the excess $ to insure every type of deposit which doesn't encourage new lending and keeps the $ in shortage spurring a lead towards deflation.
The answer is clearly a no. Paulson may have made good money at Goldman but an economist he is not. Bernake is no better. Rather than lecturing the congress on why they need $700 billion they should have spend a few thousand dollars to take a refresher course in basic economics.
Why Would Anyone Buy T-Bills at 0%? [View article]
Paultaut: You are getting close.
Bernake want's to issue bonds because then he can pay interest like a bank, buy debt, and issue debt. And by US Givernment debt. Gee doesn't it sound like he can do everything now? Yup. Gee why have a treasury? Good question. Gee then does the public have any control over the money supply or treasury since now the Fed can issue unlimited debt, print unlimited amounts of money on debt and buy it back? Nope. Economics laid bare.
Friday's Job Loss Report: As Bad as It Gets? [View article]
LOL to start a war in Iran would be total madness, might as well worry about war with Russia too. As for the market pricing the jobs loss in, I think they are just eager to see another government givaway. As for me, I think a drop in the market is better than silly market jumps led by bigger losses later. It's best to price it all end and then we can work off the lows. The slow erosion is painful and will hurt the market worse in the long run.
If you look at Keynes closely, you will see, stimulous helps the market once it has hit a low and can't find a catalyst to start up again. It was never meant to stop a de-leveraging. So I share the author's sentiment. But I'm more likely to say, it's inevitable to get worse with government intervention.
Will Expected Rally Be Part Bear or Bull? [View article]
In a recession you should be more concerned about keeping your money than making it because as dollars dissapear in deleveraging, even if there is no overt deflation, it is obvious that the net effect is they are worth more due to scarcity. That's why the government bailout is great for banks and terrible for citizens. This is not because they get free money or taxpayers pay for it as much as when they get more money to keep their money they end up owning a higher percentage of total money and subsequently more of the US economy. Thus, they are the real winners of the downturn and all others are its loser.
'The Consumer Is Back', Trade Is...Back [View article]
You are right thinking the government thinks the way out of this predicament is exactly how we got into this predicament. You'd think they would have learned by now. I wonder if they are right though. People are scared to go mortgage their life on a questionable home investment. Can you blame them?
Who knows what the Treasury or the Fed will do tomorrow? Lower rates to 0%, encourage 2% interest for loans. Then you'll be hitting yourself for buying at 5.5% or 4.5%, especially by that time the price might have fallen 20-50% more. I think they have sowed so much uncertainty, even about your job that most people think it would be nuts to buy a house at any rate right now. I certainly think so.
Hopefully, Obama's Treasurer won't be the former CEO of Goldman who encouraged his company to make money selling bad CDS to AIG and their own customers and then used taxpayer money to pay AIG so they can pay Goldman. This type of stuff makes us sick and makes us realize that the US economy is unstable as long as they are running the show.
Your article points out good facts about the Fed's recent forays into monetary manipulation overseas. Whether it translates into anything with gold is a question. They can keep mining it until the sun goes down and it remains too expensive for any practical use except for trying to look rich (jewelry). You are correct, it is the strange market since it's based on a lot of speculating and not much else. It's basically almost a legacy of the dark ages. Back them aluminum was more valuable than gold and amber was hoarded by the catholic church.
Should we start hoarding amber? That being said. Any hedge against the Fed and Treasury's market manipulating is a worthy consideration. Even gold perhaps. I usually prefer something that earns interest and doesn't sit in a vault and has aa history of being seized in time of national crisis though.
Deflation Is Here - Now What? [View article]
Goldman on Commercial Real Estate [View article]
And they wonder why everyone is so cynical these days. So we know Goldman's view on the real estate market I guess. We only sell what's liquid because what's illiquid will bankrupt us.
Cramer's Lightning Round - Atlas Shrugged (12/15/08) [View article]
I don't care much about the rest. If you want safety keep cash. If you want profit, keep cash. If you are worrying about inflation in a down market it will always start with food related companies because that's the first thing people think about while starving, "FOOD at any price".
No Rate Cut Expected [View article]
Exploring Madoff's Ponzi Scheme Will Unveil the Causes of This Global Monetary Crisis [View article]
It does however explain why everyone is falling all over themselves to acquire bad banks that have a lot of cash and no reserve requirement since they have convinced all their depositors to put their money in FDIC unprotected accounts. That is until the Treasury guaranteed those funds to facilitate their buyout.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. F4Q08 (Qtr End 11/28/08) Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
After Watching 60 Minutes, Fitch Takes Hatchet to Alt-A Mortgages [View article]
They clearly aren't doing their job because doing their job isn't in their job description. They are more like the mafia collecting fees to insure the government, police, and news media don't come a looking while their "clients" are fleecing the public.
Why Would Anyone Buy T-Bills at 0%? [View article]
Will Monetizing the Federal Deficit Cause Inflation? [View article]
The Sterility of Market Stability [View article]
Now the fed is doing it again lowering interest rates and guaranteeing higher risk money markets, mortgage bonds, etc. the same protections as bank deposits. No wonder banks can't get $ and can't loan $. With lower rates they already punished investors by the tune of around $300 billion annually in interest payments. If it goes much lower people will do what they did in Japan, start taking money out of the bank and stashing it in pillows since they earn the same interest rate there as banks = $0.
Really, did they learn anything since the depression when they pay banks for parking $ in the fed where it is frozen solid and gets loaned to no one. Where they issue tons of treasuries sucking up all the excess $ to insure every type of deposit which doesn't encourage new lending and keeps the $ in shortage spurring a lead towards deflation.
The answer is clearly a no. Paulson may have made good money at Goldman but an economist he is not. Bernake is no better. Rather than lecturing the congress on why they need $700 billion they should have spend a few thousand dollars to take a refresher course in basic economics.
Why Would Anyone Buy T-Bills at 0%? [View article]
Bernake want's to issue bonds because then he can pay interest like a bank, buy debt, and issue debt. And by US Givernment debt. Gee doesn't it sound like he can do everything now? Yup. Gee why have a treasury? Good question. Gee then does the public have any control over the money supply or treasury since now the Fed can issue unlimited debt, print unlimited amounts of money on debt and buy it back? Nope. Economics laid bare.
Friday's Job Loss Report: As Bad as It Gets? [View article]
If you look at Keynes closely, you will see, stimulous helps the market once it has hit a low and can't find a catalyst to start up again. It was never meant to stop a de-leveraging. So I share the author's sentiment. But I'm more likely to say, it's inevitable to get worse with government intervention.
Will Expected Rally Be Part Bear or Bull? [View article]
'The Consumer Is Back', Trade Is...Back [View article]
Who knows what the Treasury or the Fed will do tomorrow? Lower rates to 0%, encourage 2% interest for loans. Then you'll be hitting yourself for buying at 5.5% or 4.5%, especially by that time the price might have fallen 20-50% more. I think they have sowed so much uncertainty, even about your job that most people think it would be nuts to buy a house at any rate right now. I certainly think so.
Hopefully, Obama's Treasurer won't be the former CEO of Goldman who encouraged his company to make money selling bad CDS to AIG and their own customers and then used taxpayer money to pay AIG so they can pay Goldman. This type of stuff makes us sick and makes us realize that the US economy is unstable as long as they are running the show.
The Manipulation of Gold Prices [View article]
Should we start hoarding amber? That being said. Any hedge against the Fed and Treasury's market manipulating is a worthy consideration. Even gold perhaps. I usually prefer something that earns interest and doesn't sit in a vault and has aa history of being seized in time of national crisis though.