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Moon Kil Woong  

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Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Federal Debt Crisis in the U.S.? Nothing to Worry About [View article]
    "Looking forward, our formula for working out of the current deficit pattern would be to have the Republicans regain control of one house of Congress. " Republicans have nothing to do with it. As we saw with Bush Jr. their flamboyant spending habits easily equal Democrats. What matters is a divided government so that both parties have a tougher time passing any ridiculous spending. Yet even then they manage to pat each others back with pork spending on both sides of the isle.

    I would rather have Clinton managing US spending than Bush Jr. any day of the week.

    Perhaps what would really help is if Libertarians gained control of one house, because fiscally conservative doesn't fit in either of the major parties platforms anymore.
    Apr 25, 2010. 12:30 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: Humana [View article]
    The reason why Humana is so low is because their earnings are falling. Until they show growth again they will be looked at as a loser in the health-care battle and will accordingly be valued lower. Not to say they won't beat their numbers, at least to the high side of $1.22. I'm guessing anything there or lower will make the stock drop as a failure to meet revenue.

    Value yes, but story-wise perhaps after 2010 when it can grow on a lower base. YoY comparatives for them will highlight the fact that their business doesn't look so good and keep the PE low.

    I don't own or have any short position on this stock because I believe the upside and downside risk are balanced.
    Apr 25, 2010. 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman's Defense: 'We Didn't Know' [View article]
    Great Points again John Lounsbury. Their released statements about not knowing which way the market was going was 2006 and early 2007. This has no real merit when it comes to the ridiculous short deals they made the rest of 2007 and on.

    It's funny we have 7 million people in jail who collectively have not ripped off or stolen from Americans more than GS has benefited off of the taxpayer through stimulus, raw deals like Abacus, and AIG to name a few. It makes you wonder.
    Apr 24, 2010. 11:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High Conviction: Berkshire Hathaway, With or Without Buffett [View article]
    With or without Buffet Berkshire has 3 things going against it, it's getting too large and unwieldy for deals to be done that have a large effect on it, it is a conglomerate, and its admittedly incredibly good management is already valued into the stock. This already makes it pricey for a conglomerate.

    When a value like good management is valued into a stock the argument that its value should be accretive beyond what it is is moot. It is hard to imagine Berkshire will ever get anyone better than Buffet, thus there is no upside to their good management premium.

    For these reasons I would not buy it. I do not own or have any short position in this stock.
    Apr 24, 2010. 11:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bucyrus: Muted Earnings Response Offers Opportunity for Investors [View article]
    Will this be negatively affected by China's attempt to put the brakes on monetary expansion and inflation? It may be a macro thing adding to this stock's inability to move up.
    Apr 24, 2010. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Homes: Double Bottom? [View article]
    There was not much of a bounce, so I think it is more like bumping along the same bottom rather than being a double bottom. I think everyone is hoping that this isn't the precipice for another leg down if or when interest rates rise and the government stops making incentives to get people who shouldn't buy a home to buy one.
    Apr 23, 2010. 05:45 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HFT, Goldman, And How to Save Free Markets [View article]
    Black boxing came up shortly after Black Scholes was invented. It is debatable when these black boxes got so big they were coined as high frequency. Perhaps when the SEC allowed them to eat all the legitimate trades before they actually hit the exchanges and then cut them up so that no one else can see the trade. That would tend to do it.
    Apr 23, 2010. 05:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HFT, Goldman, And How to Save Free Markets [View article]
    Rather than a tax it would be much simpler if trading ran the same way as other automated trading systems around the world. The orders and sells are aggregated (no flashing here) and executed at regular intervals (say every 10 seconds. Why not a minute, come on computers need a break. They gotta eat too). Everyone gets to see where order are and the volume.

    If you want to HFT you can, you just can't manipulate the price by pre-buying or selling and time trading it so as to hide your buy or sell. Or changing the price by buying 666 shares at 1/400th of a second because no one else happens to be buying or selling at that time. Or trading with your friend's black box for 6,666 shares to do a trade you would not do otherwise save you know no one else places an order at that so you can be assured you get a wash when he agrees to trade it back to you at the same price in after hour trading. Oh the games go on. And no one is at fault because hey, its a computer. Are you gonna haul it off to court and put it in jail?

    This stuff should be stopped because every legitimate player on the market is the one being swindled and real volume suffers as a result. Adding liquidity, my ass. It's more like they are making up for the liquidity that they are keeping off the market.
    Apr 23, 2010. 05:39 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Unstoppable Bear Killing Machine [View article]
    Tack: If you read my blog comments I have been long for ages. I am not a bear. Considering all my buys and announced sells on SA have not lost money, I obviously am not a sorter either (none of my buys have been short selections).

    However, I have stated very clearly that there are some things that shorts bring up about how wrong the market is which we should always be very aware of. And I have stated ad nauseum that we should watch out when stimulus crests and when the Fed starts pulling out its over $1 trillion dollars in QE, backstops, and increase in base money supply and raises rates.

    Please be careful as to who you lump into big bear shorters because I am not one of them. My stance has been oh so very consistent.
    Apr 23, 2010. 05:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman's Biggest Lie [View article]
    Your analysis points once again to the fact that clearly the purpose of this vehicle was to mislead. It also highlights the fact that this transaction was a pure bet and need never be created in the first place. It was in no way supporting a loan book or equity tranche. It was designed purely and intentionally to allow Paulson & Co to bet against the given securities they selected.

    The buyers were clearly ignorant and stupid. No one knowing the true structure would have ever bought them.
    Apr 23, 2010. 04:54 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Unstoppable Bear Killing Machine [View article]
    Stimulus has a way of propping up bubble for a while afterward. If there is no more and it winds down I would say we will have good performance until Q4. Then watch out. If tech fails to take a lead perhaps it could be Q3. If tech shows strong support in Q3 then I would say the real economy is recovering and hopefully will make up for the loss of stimulus (Of course this is the government's best case scenario). So I watch tech. The rest of the market is too chock full of government and Federal Reserve money to see the real economy.

    But for now, I don't worry much.
    Apr 23, 2010. 01:48 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman's Abacus Fee [View article]
    A very good point indeed. I think that was a payoff for the rigging and the cover-up to make it seem like a third party, not Paulson & Co who was betting against the buyer, assembled the set of bad bonds the buyer was going to be stuck with (including bonds Goldman wanted to get rid of fast).

    I bet the SEC was planning to use this as yet another smoking gun Felix. This whole deal fits into the unusual category. Thanks for your insight.
    Apr 23, 2010. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Unstoppable Bear Killing Machine [View article]
    If you want to be a bear wait until the government feeding frenzy stops. It is hard to fight against zirp, QE, and stimulus at the same time. Even if you won, inflation would go through the roof and you would be sitting on losses because your cash would be devalued to nothing (worse even if you bot bonds).

    In my eyes, as long as the funny money machine continues you must be in commodities or equities.
    Apr 23, 2010. 11:54 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedging My Equities by Going Long Volatility [View article]
    Since stock owners already own the upside component of volatility they need only buy the corresponding downside, or puts in this case, to hedge their risk. Betting on the full VIX is just over-allocating your volatility insurance which often ends up on the loss side of the accounting column anyway.

    Of course complete hedging may tell you not to play at all.
    Apr 23, 2010. 11:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q1 Earnings Update: Technology Sector [View article]
    It is funny that tech is lagging the market. Most of the surprises weren't surprises at all. I think it was more analyst stroking the companies they cover to help them beat the numbers yet once again. Such behavior invariably negates the value of analysts and these metrics.

    Of course, I could be wrong and the analysts could just be consistently terribly bad at what they do (and never learn might I add). At which point analysts may point out that every company in America can fudge their earnings by a percent or two via depreciation, hockey sticking sales, etc. Yet hmmm how can they be off by like 20-40% as is the case in some tech stocks like AAPL? I think that may just be consistently bad (Hello, they have constantly under estimated Apple's earnings for years now).
    Apr 23, 2010. 11:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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