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Moon Kil Woong

 
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Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 1 [View article]
    Yay thanks, I hardly can wait for the sequel where then the financial sector invented the perpetual mortgage and home equity ATM machine. It's like a Brother's Grimm Fairy tale except it isn't make believe.
    Jun 5 12:29 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Releases Earnings Early; Has World Gone Crazy? [View article]
    That is downright odd. Thanks for the highlighting strange disclosures since analysts and the press so often avoid asking any materially significant questions besides saying, "Thanks for calling on me, please give me your magic target forecast for next quarter's earnings so I can keep my job."
    Apr 14 06:11 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An End To Our Relationship With Yahoo, A New Era For Equity Research [View article]
    I'm not exactly positive about this. In reality SA needs to engage with traditional media and widen its viewership not cut itself off to make more money. SA already makes great profit and I'm skeptical about the need to cut off relations with Yahoo to pay more to contributors. This seems more like a method for self enrichment than for the good of the site.
    Jul 25 12:08 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Will Be The Turning Point For Clean Energy Fuels And Westport Innovations [View article]
    It is annoying because it is proven workable technology that emits less pollution and is cheaper. It is sad that China which some call technologically behind us has successfully implemented it and run LNG and CNG transportation for years while we support and dicker around in ethanol which does neither and costs more due to government meddling.

    In the meantime we are swimming in natural gas and even light sweet crude and yet the oil industry's only solution is to lobby for us to export it because they don't want to make refineries that process cleaner cheaper fuel here because it undermines their existing business. They prefer the dirtier more expensive oil of the Middle east. Most likely they will get their way eventually and the us will be deprived of the cost benefits of light sweet crude, LNG, and CNG and run massive deficits importing oil while exporting oil and gas we could use here.

    When people say we have no energy policy they are somewhat right. We don't have a logical energy policy built around the benefit and well being of US citizens or consumers. We do have an energy policy built around crony capitalism, inefficiency, and waste caused by dirty politicians and the oil industry lobbyists that want $5 gas at the gas station, not $2 gas and want to destroy competition with reformulated gas like in California to shut out the competition and spin some of the profits to the party that supports it's weird gas (strangely this is democrats). so yes, Republicans and Democrats are trying to siphon money off you with terrible energy policies.

    Consequently, LNG and CNG have a long fight ahead that some would call a losing one because the government sure as hell aren't going to support it. And dirty politicians will do anything to stop it just like 10,000 other rational things that will make the US more efficient, competitive, and lower prices for consumers.
    Jan 21 12:32 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Mythical Taper: Why It Is Unlikely To Happen And Why It Is Not The Main Concern [View article]
    I agree the Fed has no incentive to taper. QE allows it to play god and both artificially manipulate its balance sheet, money supply, and enrich the banks that it favors at the cost of over-leveraging. However unlike banks it doesn't have to mark down unless someone they loaned money to goes bankrupt which they can prevent by just loaning more money to, don't have to disclose who they lent to, don't have to sell, don't have to mark to market, and aren't audited. Basically, they are a private bank that can do whatever they want legally.

    Why would they ever give up QE? Japan never gave up QE and now the whole country is in thrall waiting with baited breath for the next central bank money drop. Of course Japan never really recovered and is an endless downturn (that's how the central banks keeps their power, at the cost of the economy and the people). QE and capitalism don't go together the same with QE and real money supply growth (can't let other people do that it may cause inflation and deprives the central bank of more printing without out of control inflation).

    Asides from the Federal Reserve wanting QE power, the US government runs unsustainable debt which increasingly no one will buy. Of course they can get the American people to buy it with higher rates and fear of investing in anything else. This is why public sector debt deprives the private sector in a closed system. The US has avoided this by dumping it on foreign countries since it also runs a trade deficit. Now that foreign countries have more zeroes than they need and realize that hoarding US dollars is causing domestic inflation (every US dollar that goes to another country requires that country to produce money to match it) they simply are saying no. This means the Federal Reserve is having a hard time mopping up the excess bond issues the US is putting out to finance their way out of control debt. They currently are doing it with QE. So the Federal Reserve risks failing bond issues if it ends QE too.

    What really is happening is the Federal Reserve is threatening to stop or wind down QE in the form of bond purchases going to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, banks, etc. Unfortunately we don't know who or why they are doing this because they don't have to disclose it. However, those institutions may be frightened to death of a world which they aren't bailed out by them. After all, they shouldn't exist in the first place since they can't survive naturally in a capitalistic world.

    The Federal Reserve needs as much money as it can to buy long dated US Treasuries not just to keep the rates down, but to actually sell them (in this case sell them to themselves). That is the sorry state we are in. It's much worse than the threatened tapering they are feeding to the public.

    QE is much worse than anything. It is as uncapitalistic as Stalin and socialism. Capitalism is being killed from within and few people are saying anything at all.

    Aug 17 12:24 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dubai: Gauging the Impact [View article]
    Everytime I think of Dubai I think of the foolish man who built his house upon the sand. If there was ever a sign of the massive real estate speculation that plauged the world this decade it would have been Dubai. It's not like no one could have seen it coming. It's fall was about a 2 year lagging indicator.
    Nov 27 10:32 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Shift: China Rising, U.S. Falling [View article]
    Cynicus, I fully agree with your analysis in the beginning. It is a natural progression stemming from Adam Smith's wealth of nations. A country's wealth stems from its ability to produce. As we shifted from production to financial manipulation we have gone a long way in abandoning what made the US rich and prosperous from the beginning. Innovation and invention by neccesity requires a link to production. We have given up a lot more than we thought transferring production overseas in order to save money.

    However I disagree on your assumptions of the Yuan. Indeed the Yuan can be used to purchase goods and services from China, however, China's overly restrictive non free floating policy largely negates its value as a world currency. Naturally they wish to retain the status of the RMB being an undervalued currency in order to maintain their competitiveness not against the US but from the US finding and shifting its production elsewhere.

    The hesitance to embrace the RMB has been witnessed by China's several failed bond auctions. Further muddying their currency they regularly view currency as a zero sum game and detest anyone who accumulates RMB reserves seeing this as a sort of theft of business from them. Sooner or later they want it returned to them through purchase of Chinese made goods. This logically negates their ability to be a reserve currency since, by definition, it involves allowing anyone to keep it in reserve.Thus China has pressed for a basket of currencies approach in which their manipulated currency can hide while still retaining their unfair currency policies.

    Although the US has gone a long way in ruining the value of the dollar, the US remains a reserve currency largely because no other country allows their currency to float so freely nor has enough of it and corresponding debt to meet the world's demand. That may change over time but it won't stem from China. Rather, I'd look more towards a Euro fulfilling a role as a global reserve currency.
    Oct 8 04:36 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Nearing a Critical Level [View article]
    The author is nice enough not to compare the dollar to a basket of commodities including gold where the decline is more dramatic. Rather, comparing it to other fiat currencies that are being watered down too gives a more tame approximation.

    The fall of the dollar since Q1 hes been steep and astounding. Apparently, our belief about what is critical means nothing to Bernake. Perhaps he is content to let America's assets, besides stock, drop of 5-10% a year for every year he is in power. He isn't called Helicopter Ben for nothing you know.
    Sep 23 07:43 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Recession Really Over? [View article]
    You are very correct, however Bernake is playing a political game with economic overtones. Hos sttement about the end of a recession is meant to inspire yet he knows very well that the end of the recession as he is defining it is a end to a cataclysmic slide not a recovery.

    And yet even though he technically says nothing economically about a recovery, his interviews always sound like he is talking about a recovery. He can not eat his cake and have it too. Either he is a good economist who is talking in real economic terminology or he is not and is talking about the general belief that their is a turnaround. So far he has yet to clarify his point.

    It smacks of more Greenspanism, talking like a shaman high on drugs while they destroy the foundations of capitalism and economic stability in exchange for brief political stardom and a few million dollars to publish a book about it. If this is their goal, I find the Miss America Pagent more meritous and productive than their ambition.
    Sep 16 03:12 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sound Of Silence [View article]
    The real scare is when the Federal Reserve must inevitably abate their monetary expansionist policy which is a rational concern for real economists. Likewise, what is scary is not a downturn, but how utterly unprepared the Federal Reserve and government are in their ability to tackle one since they already have low rates, implemented massive deficit spending, and still are running on QE.
    May 22 11:27 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Seeking Alpha Embraces Pseudonymity [View article]
    Although some SA writers may have motives such as long or short positions, I don't think this exceeds the conflict of interest investment houses and their employees have in pumping stocks. BY and large SA is more balanced in their long and short articles than the always sunny days research the traditional financial press pumps out.

    SA also have one more thing going for it. Commenters like myself are devoted to jump onto fallacies and questionable information and often offer up different perspectives than you will find elsewhere.
    Mar 19 07:30 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Retire At 30! [View article]
    I think the author's point is quite good. Retirement is partially or completely based upon expectation or ability. Those forced to retire must live off of $2k a month or less. Those with a modest expectation of say $30k a year will be more able to achieve it than the silly calculators plugging in $80-100k a year income in retirement. The going financial advisor would prefer you to work to give them money until you drop dead. You are the cow and they milk you as much as they can.
    Jan 29 11:24 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Dividend Agnostic Assumptions: Here's What Really Makes Income Investors Tick [View article]
    Index funds are just a convenient way for government to fleece you with capital gains before you sell as well as a way for fund managers to pay themselves a hefty margin and then trading fees for what can be done by computers and a low paid nerd.
    Sep 2 06:16 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Christopher Thornberg: Double Dip Is Coming in 2011 [View article]
    The Fed is already keeping rates low. They pretty much can't go lower. If the Fed starts destroying money by excessive QE and backstops on bad loans including Fannie and Freddie debt or the Federal government runs continued nightmarish deficits it is true we can have inflation due to a collapse of the dollar. However, it is not a foregone conclusion. There will certainly be backlash to this.

    The more plausable outcome of a double dip with deflation to start. In the end prices must reset and bad debt must be purged out of the system through normal but dismal conditions. As Ronald Regan said, "If not now when? If not us, who?" Obama should have signed up for fiscal stringency to start and then eased up later if possible. Now everyone is going broke including the state governments and the Federal Reserve and Treasury have over-leveraged themselves like a zero down interest only Alt A homebuyer.
    Mar 11 12:22 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hidden Depression of the 2000s [View article]
    Thanks for the report as firm statistical confirmation that the false 2000 recovery was not a recovery as much as a debt fueled bubble. In the context of regulatory and accounting easing compounded by a lax low interest rate easy money policy by an indigent Federal Reserve, we can see that easy solutions only mask over the eroding fundamentals. Seeking to reverse them is much harder and not something being done today.

    Today our easy money policy is at zirp, even worse than before. Our off book accounting is still around along with an even more lax accounting standard. And our national debt has not only skyrocketed but under Bush Jr. and Obama is encouraging the worst, most counter productive allocation of resources in history by rewarding failed banks and quasi-public institutions with not only money but letting them eat marketshare and starve out any legetimate competition.

    Eventually this will stop. Most likely it will end, sooner or later,in an austerity program for the US that will put this downturn to shame.
    Sep 20 05:20 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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