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Moses Kim

 
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  • The Case for Depression, Part 3: Demographics [View article]
    rdd,

    Yes he does, although I'm not sure if they're available on the web. You can check out his book though "The Great Depression Ahead".

    To summarize, Europe is in even worth shape than the U.S. Japan preceded our current demographic cycle by about 2 decades- hence the lost decade(s). They have decent demographics in the next decade, but after that it doesn't look good for them. Demographics in China look good for the next decade or so until they start to feel the effects of their 1 child policy.
    Jul 20 06:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Implications of a Rising Gold to Crude Oil Ratio [View article]
    Freya,

    I also see 850 or perhaps even lower as a possibility. I will continue to add to my positions accordingly for the real move in gold. The fundaments are still very strong for gold.
    Jul 8 01:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Implications of a Rising Gold to Crude Oil Ratio [View article]
    Freya,

    "Gold is moving and realigning to the Ratio you posited. With WTI around $61 and Gold around $910, the ratio is around 15."

    That's not saying much, it was 15 yesterday too. If you read my post again, you will see that I say to keep an eye on the 30 day, not to go all-in on gold. If you're working from a longer term framework, days like today mean nothing.
    Jul 8 12:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Implications of a Rising Gold to Crude Oil Ratio [View article]
    You're right, gold bricks are being stored in vaults. I think everyone will get a good lesson in dynamic processes when gold starts moving.
    Jul 8 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yamana: Thinking Trades in Gold [View article]
    Shorts have to cover sooner or later, no?
    Jul 6 01:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yamana: Thinking Trades in Gold [View article]
    rick,

    All corrections are a gift. In the bull market of the 70's, gold actually declined by 50% at one point before taking off. It's when people start losing hope that gold starts moving.
    Jul 6 09:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Brief Primer on Choosing Gold Stocks [View article]
    Long Haul,

    Mexico would probably be right under those 3 countries I mentioned, although there is a history in Mexico of disruptions of mining operations by the local population. Minefinders is one relatively recent example.
    Jul 6 01:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Brief Primer on Choosing Gold Stocks [View article]
    Bill J,

    Namely the risk of nationalization of gold mines. Crystallex, a company with great potential and mines in Venezuela, comes to mind as a company that got hurt by nationalization.

    Also, there's the possibility gold confiscation (ala 1933) and the fixing of the price of gold, which would artificially suppress the value of gold stocks.


    On Jul 03 12:26 PM Bill J wrote:

    > In this article (and a good one indeed) you made the comment:
    >
    > "The U.S., Canada, and Australia are solid choices (although recent
    > developments in the U.S. have me worried). "
    >
    > Exactly what US developments have you worried?
    >
    > Cheers,
    >
    > Bill J
    Jul 3 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Brief Primer on Choosing Gold Stocks [View article]
    I agree, you can't go wrong with physical gold as it is an insurance policy against systematic collapse. Any precious metals investments should probably start with physical gold at its core.


    On Jul 02 01:53 PM DONE_SONZ wrote:

    > Good article.When the stock market fell like a led balloon not too
    > long ago, the other side of the gold buyers jumped in.The side of
    > holding gold as a source of value versus everthing else falling.Right
    > now it seems most are holding for future inflation and currency worries.I
    > would say hold for all of these reasons.I prefer the miners also,but
    > physical gold is good too.
    Jul 2 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case for Depression, Part 2: Credit Destruction [View article]
    Swaps,

    Thanks for the comment.

    I should have qualified the debt statement by saying that debt of any magnitude was limited to the government sector. Back then we didn't have credit cards, so consumers weren't overly indebted, and the commercial paper market wasn't abused by corporations for short-term funding.

    There definitely was a run on deposits during the Great Depression as over 7,000 banks failed. Margin loans worked through intermediaries of the bank and speculators- aided and abetted by the Federal Reserve.
    Jul 2 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case for Depression, Part 2: Credit Destruction [View article]
    conceptwizard,

    The demise of the dollar as the reserve currency will definitely work to aggravate the depression. We are already seeing private currency swap arrangements that bypass the dollar. What I see as a result of the dollar losing reserve status is both higher inflation and higher interest rates. Both are huge negatives for the economy.
    Jul 1 01:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case for Depression, Part 2: Credit Destruction [View article]
    Graham and Dodd,

    I think disrupted trade flows will eventually come to the fore, but we haven't seen anything of the magnitude of Smoot-Hawley yet. Once we do, I think an intelligent comparison with the Great Depression can be made.
    Jul 1 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spinning the Durable Goods Numbers [View article]
    Good point. Data will continue to be spun to suggest recovery. We are still not out of the woods in this recession/depression.
    Jun 25 10:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intermediate Term Is Bearish for S&P and Dollar [View article]
    I understand your point, but the dollar rally of last fall was a technical event, since many people held synthetic shorts on the dollar. Just think about treasuries, a classic safe haven play, being sold off while the stock market was collapsing earlier this year. The fundamentals of the dollar are just too weak, and I think money will start flowing into gold instead.
    Jun 25 08:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case for Depression, Part 1: Unemployment [View article]
    MudEngineer,

    You are correct. Underemployment is a major issue that doesn't get enough press. We are definitely in for a long period of retrenchment in terms of spending.



    Jun 18 07:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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