Mr. Yukos

ADDVantage Technologies: Using My Circle of Competence to Determine Actual Value

I was laid off 3 weeks ago from an investment banking boutique, and had shoveled these guys to graybar electric on a silver platter - were not interested, or maybe were but didn't say so.

Good call in KTCC, what analytical frameworks are you using to search for stocks?

I have recent put together and analytical framework in a simple work that just breaks down ever park of my analysis.

Stimulus Can't Save the Stock Market

I'll sum of all of your idea's in three words, threee words that I also agree with: We Are F*cked.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Media nature, like human nature, is to try find an easy fix and answer to problems, even complex problems.

Just like we see everyday in the news, "markets drop because of renewed doubt in economic recovery" - duh fool, it isn't always that though, its an event.

So Old Trader, it isn't "just liquidity", there is always a catalyst. Liquidity needs don't just zap a funds 71% of assets. Something occurred concerning management, or the company's portfolio in general.

Obama Abandons Public Healthcare Option

It looks like there is some buying in HC, relative to the rest of the indices today.

'Green Shoots' Are a Mirage: Economy Will Deteriorate Further

Unfortunately looking forward to the correction - shut these irrational bulls up

Why I'm Keeping an Eye on Corporate Defaults

You are wise with your comments about the media saying those exact quotes. It never fails - especially on Yahoo's homepage. I recently read some startling pieces of data in one of my Capital Economics reports: Over the last ten years, the US consumer has piled on $3.4T in debt. If we consistently save at the annualized rate of April's 5.7%, throughout the year, spending every cent of that to pay down debt, it will take us 6 years to deleverage. If our saving rate increases another 2%, to say, 8%, it will take us 4 years.

The beat down equity and crude oil markets were ready for a small rebound, but I believe long term players (who probably aren't even back into the market) are forgetting some things. Even when the unemployment rate starts to decrease and GDP starts to increase, we STILL have to deleverage. A similar idea can be addressed in housing: Even when consumers have the money to spend on real estate and go back into the market, prices will see another jolt down because of the inventory and negotiating power of buyers.

Worth Locking in Crude Prices at Next Pullback with DBO

We don't want to get taxed like a limited partner now do we...


On May 13 07:35 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> UGA is also pretty good

Bank of America: Overstating Assets by 85%?

hwood - what don't you understand?

Why Unemployment Will Not Bottom Out in the Near Term

Don't get me wrong - I am an advocate of a certain level of lower income jobs being taken from Americans by immigrants, because that in turn forces Americans to learn to skills and be entrepreneurial. However, when one person gets fired, it isn't just that person's purchasing power and risk tolerance evaporating, it puts the employees of all the places that person use to purchase from at risk of loosing their job.

I think we are still seeing a back draft of the stress tests with regard to equity markets rallying. We have a ways to go - commercial loans, CMBS and credit cards haven't even begun to play their role yet.

It's still to early to be committed to this rally - I think.

Why Unemployment Will Not Bottom Out in the Near Term

As seen in the payroll numbers today - there are going to be a tremendous amount of public sector jobs created by federal and state level organizations - as for a jobless recovery - I can't imagine it...purchasing power at all levels drive economies - and it starts with the consumer. The gap between unemployment (as a negative number) and GDP growth can only get but so wide...I also think its important to take a micro view of job creation - for instance, since the job market is deteriorating, more people are going back to school, which will increase the number of maintenance workers a school hires - wouldn't you think?

Areas of job creation: Healthcare, Alternative Energy, State and Federal, Debt Collectors (haha),

Bank of America: Overstating Assets by 85%?

1Q TBV was $51 billion
1Q Pref. Equity was $73 billion
51-73 = -22 TCE
1Q Tangible Assets $2.22 trilllion
TCE/Tangible Asset Ratio was -10%


On May 08 06:22 AM hammer wrote:

> EOP 1Q TCE was $69.6 billion
> EOP Tangible Assets $2.22 trilllion
> EOP TCE/Tangible Asset Ratio was 3.13%
>
> To get to a "static" EOP TCE/TA ratio they would have needed another
> $19.3 billion.
>
> Instead the government stressed the portfolio and got $33.7 billion
> in new TCE.
>
> This is achievable with asset sales, retained earnings and a common
> offering.
>
> The author's analysis is wrong and confusing!!!

Why Unemployment Will Not Bottom Out in the Near Term

I agree - the after affects of an unemployment report are that the jobless base exponentially grows through "the ripple effect". Also, EVERY month it seems like the unemployment number is revised from bad to worse - even in good times its revised substantially.

Reports of Bank of America (BAC) needing an additional $34B may not be as frightening as initially assumed, CNBC's Steve Liesman says. According to a report in the NY Times, the $34B cushion required is well below the $45B the bank has already received from the gov't, and "the bank will now start looking at ways of repaying the $11B difference over time." BAC, which was down more than 11%, is now +2.5% premarket.

What do you mean by calculating my delta to be either flat or net long?


On May 07 07:31 AM MacroMoli wrote:

> Yes and which class of preferred to you recommend? And how would
> you calculate your delta to be either flat or net long.

Reports of Bank of America (BAC) needing an additional $34B may not be as frightening as initially assumed, CNBC's Steve Liesman says. According to a report in the NY Times, the $34B cushion required is well below the $45B the bank has already received from the gov't, and "the bank will now start looking at ways of repaying the $11B difference over time." BAC, which was down more than 11%, is now +2.5% premarket.

Steve Liesman he's an idiot - an entertainer.

Short BAC common stock and buy preferred.

P/E Ratios and Inflation

Also, you are combining the P/E ratios for all firms in the S&P and then saying "they" are overpriced? Some firms trade at high forward earnings realtive to others for a reason, to say that all 500 firms are still overpriced is also naive.