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  • Aflac Is Ready To Soar [View article]
    Interesting Bloomberg article http://bloom.bg/197l4cr on Aflac succession planning. This is more for the longer term though as Dan Amos who is 61 currently plans to stay in his current role till age 70 at-least.

    Also 2013 share repurchases re-iterated to be between $400M to $600M and 2014 repurchases targeted to be between $600M to $900M. At current share price around $54.50 this should be good enough to retire 5% of shares outstanding.
    May 23 09:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Global: Sunshine In Stormy Weather [View article]
    Liberty management John Malone and Mike Fries are proven value creators. If your holding period is > 5 years then starting a position at current valuation may turn out fine when you look back many years later.
    May 17 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CST Brands: Valero's Spin-Off Is Currently Undervalued And Under-Earning [View article]
    Excellent research Daniel! I appreciate you for the effort you have put into not just analyzing CST but also all the competitors.
    May 16 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • National Oilwell Varco: Widening Moat And Fair Price Make For A Compelling Long-Term Buy [View article]
    Hi Tim,
    I enjoy your articles very much and I totally agree with your analysis on NOV. One of the things I like about NOV is the capital allocation record of CEO Pete Miller and COO Clay Williams. Read our analysis at http://bit.ly/1399pah.
    May 4 10:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac Is Ready To Soar [View article]
    Hi dividend_growth,
    Thanks for your comment. AFL is drastically reducing their new money JGB investments and plan to invest in US Corp Bonds and hedge exchange rate risk. As to the substantial legacy JGB holdings ($44B) they plan to hold till maturity.
    Apr 30 10:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac Is Ready To Soar [View article]
    Hi ConservativeOutperformer,
    Thanks for reviewing the article and the comments.
    Here is some information for you.

    2012 Insurance Ratios Calc:
    Benefits + Claims = $15.30B
    Premium Income = $22.10B
    Total Acq. & Oper. Expenses = $5.73B
    Investment Income = $3.50B

    Combined Ratio = 100*(15.30+5.73)/(22.10) = 95.16%.

    Here is some historical information:
    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
    Combined Ratio 103.3% 101.8% 101.2% 100.3% 99.4% 97.9% 96.4% 95.0% 94.4% 95.2%
    Benefit Ratio 75.9% 75.0% 74.1% 73.2% 71.6% 70.2% 68.0% 67.0% 67.5% 69.3%
    Op. Exp Ratio 27.4% 26.8% 27.1% 27.1% 27.8% 27.7% 28.3% 28.0% 26.9% 25.9%
    Apr 30 10:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac Is Ready To Soar [View article]
    Hi Swiss Guru,
    Thanks for your comment and good luck with your puts.
    Apr 30 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac Is Ready To Soar [View article]
    Hi Derek,
    Thanks for commenting and we are glad you like the article. We view both CB and AFL as quality businesses having shareholder friendly management. Agreed that on a valuation basis AFL looks better. CB does offer more diversified operations.

    It is an interesting question on the demographics in Japan. Our take is that for the supplemental insurance and cancer related products it will likely be a positive as people may buy products for more years. Also due to Japanese govt debt increasing if they reduce the coverage from state provide healthcare it will be a net positive for Japanese insurance companies including AFL.
    Apr 30 05:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac Is Ready To Soar [View article]
    There is an impact when they repatriate profits annually from Japan to US. I believe management has indicated they have hedges in place for this year and next year for what they plan to repatriate. I understand there is going to be lot of JPY printing but there is also plenty of USD, GBP, EUR printing going on, so it is not clear who if anyone wins in this race to the bottom. The key is whether AFL in Japan will be able to increase premiums there in Japan at a rate above inflation.
    Apr 30 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac Is Ready To Soar [View article]
    Hi bg6638-2,
    In my perspective the world is indeed a scary place and it has always been. It is just that some times we focus on it more than at others. I have learnt that it is not an easy task to time the market so I look to invest at regular intervals in attractively valued businesses.
    Apr 30 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac Is Ready To Soar [View article]
    Hi David,
    Thanks for your comments. I think the focus will be Japan and US. I think it is a good idea to continue to pursue growth (via new products) in these markets where they already have brand established and competitive advantages as opposed to starting in a new market.

    Hi Buyandhold 2012,
    Thanks for adding your thoughts and perspective.
    If you did buy AFL for $22 and you are holding and you have an earnings yield of 27% that is great for you. However for people who are interested is investing new money and are fine with 10% total return per anum AFL is one to consider. Obviously investors can wait for a pullback or sell puts if they are comfortable with a lower entry price, want to take on lower risk or require a higher risk-adjusted return.
    Apr 30 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac Is Ready To Soar [View article]
    Hi oilsands, Dan,
    Thanks for your comments. I wish AFL would do more share buybacks while shares are undervalued. 600M buyback for 2013 is not a lot for company with 25B market cap. Dan Amos runs the business conservatively and their first commitment is to the policy holders so I guess it is hard to fault that.
    Apr 30 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aflac Is Ready To Soar [View article]
    Hi Dividend Garden,
    Thanks for reviewing and commenting on the article. You put it really well, AFL is indeed a diamond in the rough. It is not easy to find an owner operated company with a solid history of 30+ years of growth in earnings and dividends trading at a reasonable valuation.
    Apr 30 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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