Mutale Mubanga

Contrarian, research analyst, africa, zambia
Mutale Mubanga
Contrarian, research analyst, Africa, Zambia
Contributor since: 2012
Thank you. Here's a good read on read on what's pushing copper prices http://bit.ly/14Arw6z -- Chinese demand has a big say in it. The infrastructure projects being implemented in Zambian road and rail sectors will be a huge boost to the economy for years to come.
I agree, ZCCM-IH is the ultimate vehicle even though it's not as liquid as the rest. I wanted to make sure all the options were put out there.
Looks like Zimbabwe is settling an old debt with it's northern neighbor to facilitate a new, much needed hydropower project http://reut.rs/13dqoVZ
This should have been done a long time ago - will be a boost to both economies.
There is still a high appetite for frontier markets debt epitomized by Zambia's recent successful bond issue. With more bond issues planned - http://bit.ly/11kfQJh - could they perhaps be jumping the gun a little? I've been thinking this for a while now (Infrastructure projects aside) - especially the planned muni bond issues. I think that they need to prove that they can operate more efficiently first!!
Thanks - Hedge fund manager has quite an interesting take indeed! Looking forward to participating on your blog.
I agree with your point about economic growth not adequately translating to human development and the fact that there hasn’t been a clear policy on tackling unemployment. In my opinion, job creation via small business (SMEs) is key to tackling poverty and inequality in Zambia. Like I said in my article, entrepreneurship has been hindered in the past by exorbitant interest rates, poor infrastructure and a host of other issues. The other point I made is that these issues are being addressed (jury is still out) and how aggressively they are addressed will dictate future economic growth as well as human development. This article is not saying that the country is where it needs to be already, far from – Zambia is still a rough diamond that is gradually being cut/polished, but with plenty opportunities to make money right now.
This article is based on facts Mr. Bwalya and I have been paying attention to what’s been going on in the country - so has Moodys, the IMF, Hitachi, Gemfields e.t.c. You clearly have some things which you would like to get off your chest - the beauty of Seekingalpha is that gives you the opportunity to write your own article if in disagreement with anything.
I’m not an expert of mining/commodities. But from my own research, I think it has a lot going its way right now:
- Copper prices are still at very high levels
- It's portfolio of mining companies have been expanding operations to take advantage of high copper prices which will have a positive impact on ZCCM-IH performance
- Let’s not forget China’s influence – copper demand is still quite high at the moment
- They have recently made acquisition to enter the gemstone sector which could generate high returns
*The entity is of course, over 87% government owned and that number is set to rise (government will covert $425m of debt owed by ZCCM-IH to equity)*
However, they do need to diversify away from copper even more because; you and I both know that the high prices will not last forever.
Thank you, I really appreciate that.