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Mycroft  

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  • Gilead Sciences Vs. AbbVie: Which Is A Better Buy? [View article]
    I understand your point and I have no problem with ABBV buying the company but I don't like the the terms of the deal were they only get 50% of the benefit but are paying maximum price. Johnson & Johnson will benefit just as much as ABBV on the deal even though ABBV's price for admission to the party is extreme. When they made that crazy offer for Shire and then pulled the plug costing $1.64 billion in break up fees, does not inspire confidence.

    Mycroft
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:22 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Vs. AbbVie: Which Is A Better Buy? [View article]
    From Reuters

    "U.S. health regulators, on Friday, approved AbbVie's all-oral treatment for hepatitis C, and the company said the drug would cost $83,319 for a typical 12-week plan, a bit below its huge selling competitor Sovaldi from Gilead Sciences."

    It says competitor so we can only conclude that it does.

    Mycroft
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Investors Beware, History Is Not On Your Side [View article]
    Hi Gary,

    I am sorry, but I don't know enough about them to render a opinion.

    Mycroft
    Apr 15, 2015. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Investors Beware, History Is Not On Your Side [View article]
    1913 Federal Reserve enacted and then Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1970's and rest of the world soon followed. As a result "funny money" rules.

    http://cnb.cx/1aG4e9j

    Mycroft
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:34 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Investors Beware, History Is Not On Your Side [View article]
    On $19 trillion in US debt a 1% rise in interest rates would have serious repercussions for the US Treasury, so imagine what bringing interest rates back to normal average rates would do. Europe is in ten times worse shape so multiply that scenario by 10 and that is the reality. Governments are broke and we thus have these drastic measures of negative rates. "I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a Hamburger Today" ~ Whimpee from Popeye cartoon.
    Apr 15, 2015. 07:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Investors Beware, History Is Not On Your Side [View article]
    It all depends on what price you paid and if you bought it at a premium to par value or not.

    http://bit.ly/1CVTnin

    Also the length of maturity matters as well. I wrote about 10 year bonds in this article and was not talking about short term maturities.

    Mycroft
    Apr 14, 2015. 01:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Concerns That Have Me Worried About The Overvalued Markets In 2015 [View article]
    Leading Indicators Signal A Market Top.

    Interesting article = http://on.mktw.net/1CO...

    Mycroft
    Apr 13, 2015. 07:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Concerns That Have Me Worried About The Overvalued Markets In 2015 [View article]
    Oh My look at this UGH!!!

    http://bloom.bg/1NvWFE7

    Batten down the hatches!

    Mycroft
    Apr 12, 2015. 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Concerns That Have Me Worried About The Overvalued Markets In 2015 [View article]
    Hi Shane,

    There are reasonable values overseas but unless you can adequately hedge the difference in currencies you may have trouble making any money. I try to find ADR's that are very cheap and have recently bought LYB and TEVA but they were extreme bargains in my opinion. Many companies in Europe and Asia are not very well run and the ones that are do not offer ADR's unless you buy them through the OTC market that has zero liquidity.

    Also remember that if we have a major correction in the US markets it will crater the rest of the world markets as well, because if the US Markets sneeze = the rest of the world catches cold and if the US Markets catch a cold = the rest of the world ends up in intensive care. I don't like ETF's because when there is a sell off there tend to be 9 sellers for every 1 buyer and there is no base of generational investors which acts like a backstop for example the Rockefeller family owned Exxon for almost 100 years and provided a backstop when sell offs started, but with ETF's you have the wild west as there are no permanent holders like you would find with Wal-Mart for example.

    I think Japan and China are basically socialists gone wild as they honestly believe they can control the markets. No can do that and when the markets decide to fall they usually have a negative domino effects due to fractal geometry as everything is interconnected these days. Everything seems wonderful in the markets because quantitative easing and stock buybacks at any price are rampant, but those things can not go on forever and eventually the world will have to allow for a correction. Just one small black swan event like Saudi Arabia being attacked by ISIS and loosing a major town there for example or Greece leaving the European Union will knock over the Apple cart.

    So you need to be Ultra-Conservative right now as the Central Bankers printed up $10 trillion from 2008 to 2015 and basically helped temporarily curtail deflation but since it was all "Funny money" as Sam Zell calls it http://cnb.cx/1aG4e9j, it had no effect except to allow companies to borrow money at zero interest rates, make multi-millionaires out of those holding options, and have CEO's buyback stock at any price. Deflation is back to 2009 levels and thus the current scenario can not continue so no matter where you go the risk to reward is not in your favor, so cash is king. From 1928 to 2009 the markets went up 50.4% of the time and down 49.6% of the time so the Fed 6 year bull market is not normal and a seven year bull is something that I think has only happened once in our history so it is very rare.

    Hope that helps,

    Mycroft
    Apr 12, 2015. 08:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Concerns That Have Me Worried About The Overvalued Markets In 2015 [View article]
    Hi Patrick,

    I like to wait for falling knives to hit ground before buying as that helps me avoid losses. We have a lot of negative things going on right now in oil and as supply breaks through the storage capacity limits, any additional oil will be taken right to the market as there will be no where to store it. It is my opinion that you will see $30 oil if that scenario happens. Then if the stock market cracks as well oil stocks could also go down another 20-30% from here no matter what the price of oil is. If you are young novice investor than you can dollar cost average, but if you are a senior then I would just wait.

    Mycroft
    Apr 12, 2015. 12:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Concerns That Have Me Worried About The Overvalued Markets In 2015 [View article]
    Investment managers by nature are lemmings and don't mind losing -40% if the market goes down -40%. What they hate more than anything is to underperform and thus will risk their client retirement assets even though they clearly see the facts right in front of their noses. So everyone moves in the same direction at all times and you just need a major catalyst to cause the momentum to swing in the other direction. Then everyone runs for the exits and panic begins as there are no buyers, but only sellers. I lived through the crash of 1987 and know how fast markets can move, when panic sets in.

    I have a client whose previous investment manager went down -48% in 2008-2009 and took him out to lunch and told him that "We went down -48% but the markets went down even more, so we did ok!" Well that is proof as to the mindset. I loose 2-3% for my clients and I am sick and if I ever lost 15%, I would be end up in the hospital. I hate nothing more than losses, so I operate with an independent mindset from others in my industry.

    Mycroft
    Apr 11, 2015. 11:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Concerns That Have Me Worried About The Overvalued Markets In 2015 [View article]
    "Cash is King" right now but once the markets correct "Cash is your Enemy". I have no intention of staying in cash once I get fair prices as I am a bargain hunter. I just don't like to pay 30% premiums for bonds and like Warren Buffett I don't like to invest when there is euphoria to the upside as measured by margin rates and buybacks, but I am the first on line after corrections as you can make boatloads very quickly by just being patient. Review what Warren Buffett did from 1968 to 1974 and then what he did from 1974 to 1984 and you will see that I do not market time as some have suggested but am just waiting on the sidelines for bargains to show up. Like any good businessperson or good supermarket shopper I always look for bargains and that way I reduce my downside risk.

    Mycroft
    Apr 11, 2015. 09:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Concerns That Have Me Worried About The Overvalued Markets In 2015 [View article]
    You should have kept reading as I presented 20 commodities that have gone down considerably. 40%+ of the worlds countries are suffering from deflation, so the facts are there for everyone to see.

    Mycroft
    Apr 11, 2015. 09:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Concerns That Have Me Worried About The Overvalued Markets In 2015 [View article]
    Start shooting fish in a barrel!!!!
    Apr 11, 2015. 01:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Concerns That Have Me Worried About The Overvalued Markets In 2015 [View article]
    I would read this:

    http://on.wsj.com/198Ycy0

    "The crash of 1929, Mr. Kahn told an interviewer in 2012, taught him that “the gambling nature of Wall Street has little or no interest in the serious, underlying nature of businesses.” He described rapid trading, then and now, as “crazy competition that had no connection to the real facts.”

    His central goal as an investor, he said, was always “to know much more about the stock I’m buying than the man who’s selling does.”
    For Mr. Kahn, the most important quality an investor could possess was patience. “You gain much more by slow investing and concentrating on what you know,” he said in 2012, “than on fast investing, which is nothing more than gambling.”

    He concluded, “The analyst must both practice, and to his client preach, patience.”

    Until the end of his life, Mr. Kahn kept about half of his assets in stocks, with the rest in cash. “If you command a lot of cash,” he said in 2012, “you can be wrong and still not have to worry.”

    The last sentence is gospel at my firm.
    Apr 11, 2015. 01:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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