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Mycroft  

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  • Apple: Analyzing It Using Owner Earnings And Free Cash Flow [View instapost]
    Gilead Sciences
    Jun 16, 2015. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ways To Beat Buffett's Berkshire [View article]
    I would have you look at Goodwill and how much of Book Value is tangible. Seems like smoke and mirrors to me.
    Jun 4, 2015. 01:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Increases Berkshire Hathaway's Stake In IBM - Let's Analyze It [View article]
    This should explain it for you,

    http://bit.ly/1HHA41n

    Mycroft
    May 25, 2015. 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Have Become A Lot More Complicated On Wall Street [View article]
    Your problem is you went one row down. You need to over write each time. What you can do is save the file for each stock and then set up a folder to house them all.

    Hope that helps,

    you may need to download Arthur again.

    Mycroft
    May 12, 2015. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Beware: Could The Current Global Bond Sell-Off Be A Start Of A Bear Market? [View article]
    I don't want to give percentages, but I will just say that if we have a bursting of the bubble instead of a controlled orderly deflation, then I can just say that "HELL WILL BE COMING TO BREAKFAST"!!!

    Mycroft
    May 12, 2015. 01:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Have Become A Lot More Complicated On Wall Street [View article]
    You can also go to a used computer store and pick up an old Window based system for $100 that has an old Excel spreadsheet on it. Then just add in the SMF add in and you are set to go.

    Good Luck,

    Mycroft
    May 11, 2015. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Have Become A Lot More Complicated On Wall Street [View article]
    Hi Charlie,

    You can do it manually on your Apple by getting the price and levered free cash flow and shares outstanding from Yahoo here Apple Example: http://yhoo.it/wQuHM7

    The last result on the bottom.

    Then you can get the growth rate of the revenue by just comparing 2014 to 2013. Here http://yhoo.it/IgXAmg

    So

    1)Current Price = $127.64
    2) Growth Rate = 182,795,000,000 -170,910,000,000 = 11,885,000,000
    11,885,000,000 / 170,910,000,000 = 6.95%
    3) Shares outstanding = 5,760,000,000 shares
    4) Levered Free Cash Flow = $46,310,000,000

    Insert them with this format

    1) $127.64
    2) 6.95%
    3) 5760
    4) 46,310

    Once you type those 4 in it should work if you have Excel for Apple or some other excel compatible Apple spreadsheet.

    Good Luck,

    Mycroft
    May 11, 2015. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Have Become A Lot More Complicated On Wall Street [View article]
    I actually bought it as the spreadsheet in this article that you can download has it as a strong buy.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Due to the manipulations going on right now I only trust revenue growth and levered free cash flow.

    Mycroft
    May 10, 2015. 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Sells Berkshire Hathaway's Entire Stake In Exxon Mobil: Let's Analyze What Happened [View article]
    Thanks William,

    As a life-long student of Warren Buffett's moves I found it interesting that he would get out so fast. He did the same exact move with Exxon in 1984. In that year Warren Buffett bought 3,895,710 shares of Exxon and then sold it the following year. I guess he has been trying to buy and hold it for years but it just has not worked out for him.

    Mycroft
    May 10, 2015. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Have Become A Lot More Complicated On Wall Street [View article]
    Thanks Jmadiara,

    I bought my first stock during that time Exxon during the oil embargo as next to my fathers restaurant was a gas station and the cars were in endless lines. 74/75 was a scary time and those with adjustable rate mortgages saw their rates go from 5% under Nixon to 19% by the time Carter was done. In just over 6 years rates increased more than 300% so no one should ever be comfortable with their investments as bond principal fell through the floor during those years and I believe were selling at a 40% discount to face value by 1980 while now they are selling at a 40% premium. So the risk of loss to principal was minimal to those buying bonds in 1980, while it is insane for those buying now.

    Mycroft
    May 3, 2015. 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Have Become A Lot More Complicated On Wall Street [View article]
    It all depends on what the dollar does. If the dollar spikes while bonds crash then Gold has limited upside. This time around it might just be different as everything will go down, no matter what you own, courtesy of Janet and the seven dwarfs.

    Mycroft
    May 2, 2015. 02:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Have Become A Lot More Complicated On Wall Street [View article]
    Hi TDune75,

    Remember to always invest like an engineer and not like a portfolio manager. In your field when the numbers don't add up you do not proceed and when they are perfect then you build your product. In investing most investors invest when the numbers don't add up as everyone else is doing the same thing. Can you imagine where society would be today if engineers did the same thing in their work that investors did over the last century. So invest when the numbers add up and don't when they don't. Its just common sense, but unfortunately common sense is not so common in the stock market.

    Thanks for your comment,

    Mycroft
    May 2, 2015. 02:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Have Become A Lot More Complicated On Wall Street [View article]
    Hi DJ,

    Awayk is right, here is TBT, one of the worst investments in the last 7 years and it has buried many a bear. So as the Sargent on Hill Street Blues used to say "Let's Be Careful Out There!!" . http://yhoo.it/1QWBhak# Take the chart out to max view and you will see a house of pain. With Bill Gross saying that there is no liquidity in bonds right now means that everyone is in the trade. When everyone is in it then there will be no buyers, once the selling starts.

    I am not a big fan of shorting anything as most investors (even professionals) do very little research when investing as they are like dogs chasing their tails, where the tail is the S&P 500 Index. They go all in usually as they are afraid to miss the train even though the track is running out. Eventually they all lose money at the same time, but that's ok for them as long as everyone they compete against loses as well. If you are a broker and your clients lose -50%, you win if the markets fall -56% as you beat the market. Its a dog chasing its tail scenario and once a dog figures out that it hurts when they actually catch their tail and bite it, the same goes for investors.

    Even scarier now is that MOM and POP are flooding the markets with cash. I have an accountant friend who does the books for high end clients. He told me that his clients are cashing out and paying more taxes this year then they ever did before in his 30 year career. So MOM and POP are buying and the wealthy are taking massive capital gains by selling real estate holdings and stocks. So you can see we are approaching the end of the track and all dogs will be catching their tails soon and it may hurt. One can only ignore, gravity, logic and common sense for so long until it bites you in the wallet.

    But that's a story for another day!

    Mycroft
    May 2, 2015. 02:00 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Have Become A Lot More Complicated On Wall Street [View article]
    Hi Patrick,

    In 1998 I basically put all my net worth at the time in Nokia and made a killing as I thought it would have an endless cycle of new products and would someday be the first $trillion company. They were doing all the right things at the time and had similar return on equity and profit margins similar to what Apple has today. Unfortunately they made the mistake of going for market share over profits and that is something that Steve Jobs learned not to do and Tim Cook understands as well. Apple is all about the profits and revenue growth. The new Apple Watch I learned today costs Apple $84 to make so it may have the largest margins of any product to ever come out of the company.

    Nokia right now is a shell of its former self and are just merging to become a network provider. It will be ok but it will be a slow growth player. The old Nokia is dead and I learned the hard way by investing in it not to bet the farm. I still did great but lost half of my gains in it by 2001. I saw the future of mobile phones but Apple ended up winning and everyone else lost because Nokia went for market share instead of profits. BIG MISTAKE and then Apple ate their lunch.

    As for Twitter I classify it along with Facebook and on both of those companies I have no clue how they make money as I have never clicked on a Facebook ad and am totally clueless how Twitter makes money. But others may know more about Twitter and Facebook than I do as I just don't understand their business models.

    Mycroft
    May 1, 2015. 06:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Have Become A Lot More Complicated On Wall Street [View article]
    With Apple returning $200 billion to shareholders it will squash ETF's like bugs on a windshield. I would not lose any sleep at all on this. Apple with such a war chest coming to the markets everyday with $billions a month, I consider it the ultimate flight to safety stock.

    Mycroft
    May 1, 2015. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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