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  • Abnormal volume for 5-15-2009

    from by Skymist Sign up for FREE membership!

    These are stocks ranked by a figure of virtue calculated by multiplying their relative volume (todays volume divided by average volume) times their day's gain.  This gives a power listing of stocks receiving intense buying interest.  Before going long or short any of these, it is important to first understand the reason behind the sudden interest.

    XFN -- Up 51.32% -- Rel Vol 2415%
    ADY -- Up 48.88% -- Rel Vol 1524%
    WX -- Up 38.1% -- Rel Vol 1498%
    HEB -- Up 29.35% -- Rel Vol 1286%
    UPFC -- Up 21.45% -- Rel Vol 794%
    BUS -- Up 1.4% -- Rel Vol 11169%
    BCRX -- Up 27.69% -- Rel Vol 487%
    FUQI -- Up 20.03% -- Rel Vol 654%
    MRNA -- Up 24.26% -- Rel Vol 524%
    OGXI -- Up 8.41% -- Rel Vol 1380%
    ARYX -- Up 20.6% -- Rel Vol 508%
    PL -- Up 13.98% -- Rel Vol 697%
    JST -- Up 14.91% -- Rel Vol 466%
    ZLC -- Up 22.37% -- Rel Vol 303%
    DRYS -- Up 15.76% -- Rel Vol 419%
    TBV -- Up 5.26% -- Rel Vol 1037%
    SYUT -- Up 12.67% -- Rel Vol 427%
    MRGE -- Up 6.82% -- Rel Vol 765%
    GGAL -- Up 6.4% -- Rel Vol 725%
    EXEL -- Up 8.83% -- Rel Vol 516%
    GRRF -- Up 12.24% -- Rel Vol 356%
    CXM -- Up 11.58% -- Rel Vol 373%
    HGR -- Up 12.55% -- Rel Vol 323%
    CTIB -- Up 4.22% -- Rel Vol 948%
    MIDD -- Up 6.95% -- Rel Vol 571%
    PLNR -- Up 2.59% -- Rel Vol 1414%
    EDGR -- Up 9.43% -- Rel Vol 386%
    MBWM -- Up 5.18% -- Rel Vol 694%
    IPXL -- Up 7.45% -- Rel Vol 426%
    EUBK -- Up 2.91% -- Rel Vol 1063%
    ENR -- Up 3% -- Rel Vol 967%
    ODFL -- Up 10.24% -- Rel Vol 281%
    KAZ -- Up 10.89% -- Rel Vol 257%
    SFLY -- Up 10.4% -- Rel Vol 268%
    WPCS -- Up 4.55% -- Rel Vol 588%
    HMPR -- Up 5.18% -- Rel Vol 484%
    FRZ -- Up 10.64% -- Rel Vol 232%
    MYRG -- Up 5.27% -- Rel Vol 452%
    SMSI -- Up 10.21% -- Rel Vol 231%
    NFM -- Up 0.75% -- Rel Vol 3066%
    OPK -- Up 7.69% -- Rel Vol 264%
    ZQK -- Up 7.4% -- Rel Vol 273%
    LPSN -- Up 6.88% -- Rel Vol 276%
    RGEN -- Up 1.53% -- Rel Vol 1165%
    ABFS -- Up 8.86% -- Rel Vol 200%
    OCNF -- Up 5.76% -- Rel Vol 307%
    MAKO -- Up 5.71% -- Rel Vol 297%
    JWN -- Up 6.35% -- Rel Vol 266%
    GOL -- Up 4.56% -- Rel Vol 368%
    FSIN -- Up 4.72% -- Rel Vol 301%
    AIRM -- Up 6.26% -- Rel Vol 226%
    PARD -- Up 5.65% -- Rel Vol 245%
    DL -- Up 4.16% -- Rel Vol 323%
    VAZ -- Up 0.77% -- Rel Vol 1719%
    UBET -- Up 5.26% -- Rel Vol 249%
    DDRX -- Up 4.3% -- Rel Vol 276%
    PPCO -- Up 3.38% -- Rel Vol 345%
    FGD -- Up 0.72% -- Rel Vol 1543%
    TRIB -- Up 4.84% -- Rel Vol 222%
    VM -- Up 4.35% -- Rel Vol 233%
    EDZ -- Up 3.4% -- Rel Vol 274%

    by Skymist

    Tags: KAZ, DRYS
    May 15 3:16 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Financials And Techs Lead The Market In Bounce: SPX, Nasdaq, POT, MOO, HBAN, STT, FITB

    After 3 days of profit-taking, the market was strong right from the open today.  Financials and techs led the rebound.  Regional banks were especially jumpy:  HBAN +7.03%, STT +6.52%, FITB +7.12%.  Agriculture stocks continued to push higher.  We got back into both POT and MOO and again scored some nice trades:

    May 14, 2009
    12:50 | HappyTrading MOS ($50.70) Sold to Close MOSFI Jun 45 calls, at $7.50 +32%
    12:19 | HappyTrading POT ($107.30) Sold to Close PYPEA May 105 calls, at $3.20 +7%
    11:40 | HappyTrading POT ($108.30) Sold to Close PYPEA May 105 calls, at $4.00 +34%
    11:28 | HappyTrading MOS ($49.60) Sold to Close MOSFI Jun 45 calls, at $6.70 +18%

    The Dow was up +46.43 points; SPX added +9.15 points; Nasdaq gained +25.02 points:
    SOXX (semiconductors) bounced back +3.2%.  XLF (financials) added +3.34%.  MOO (agriculture) added +2.64%.  Commodity secotrs also showed renewed strength: XME (metals and mining) +1.65%; USO (oil) +0.65%; UNG (natural gas) +1.62%; PBW (clean energy) +3.11%.  FXI (Chinese ADRs) rose +0.57%.

    SPX added +9.15 points to close at 893.07.  It stayed above its 20-day MA.  The MACD was slightly down.

    Nasdaq gained +25.02 points to close at 1689.21.  It closed above the 30-day MA, but, below the 1700 level.  Its MACD was lower.

    Well, the market stopped the bleeding, as least for now.  SPX used its 20-day MA as support, while Nasdaq bounced off of its 30-day MA.  VIX went lower again and closed under 32.  Its daily chart is now showing a new leg down.  We could see VIX into the 20s from here, which would be a good sign for the market.  Tomorrow is options expiration day.  Both SPX and Nasdaq are near their key levels: SPX 900 and Nasdaq 1700.  It would be a mental blow to the bears if SPX and Nasdaq can close the week above those key levels.

    Good night and HappyTrading! ™

    May 14 10:56 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Lesson Learned, Sector Forecast Confirmed... Healthcare, Pharma Primed

    Just to assure you there's some 'meat' behind this commentary, I'm going to offer a near-term sector and industry forecast at the bottom of the write-up. First, however, I think it's far more important to offer a brief but powerful verification that this technique works.

    Sometimes the subtle things are also the most powerful/profitable. Take for instance this sector performance chart (percentage gains since March 9th), with an 'as of' date of last Friday...May 8th.

    There are four clear leaders - financials, materials, industrials, and technology. While I love a winner, there's also something a little un-nerving about the size of those gains. And, I'd swear it looked like those four leading groups were starting to struggle. See what you think.


    At the same time, you can see that energy (oil and gas), utilities, consumer goods, and healthcare were all lagging since the March 9th bottom. However, I'm positive those four laggards are starting to accelerate.

    Well, there are a few lessons to be learned here.... your gut is capable of being right, nothing last forever, sell into strength, buy into weakness, and paying attention to all the little details is crucial. In this case, those are rolled into a theory called 'sector rotation'. So far no great revelation, right?

    Oddly enough, my hunches about that comparative chart were basically right. This doesn't show up all that well on an updated chart, but check out this week's (to date) results from those four sectors, bearing in mind it's been a bad week so far - the bearish tide is going to take all of 'em out to see to some degree.

    • Financials (-12.2%)
    • Materials (-7.9%),
    • Industrials (-7.8%)
    • Tech (-3.0%)
    • Utilities (-3.2%)
    • Energy (-5.4%)
    • Consumer goods (-2.0%)
    • Healthcare (flat)

    In other words, the former leaders are now the laggards, and the former laggards are now the leaders (relatively).... and not just barely. Here's a chart since then, just for the record (follow the color codes - sorry for the lack of labels). The vertical line marks the progress since last Friday.


    A perfect technique? No. A loss is still a loss, and there were some. But, I know a lot of traders would have loved to be out of financials and materials last Friday rather than still be holding the bag. And, I'm sure the flatness of healthcare would be tolerable, all things considered. I suspect that had the environment not been so harsh, those four former laggards may have actually made their way into the black.

    Though bearish overall, yes, I'm bullish on healthcare, utilities, energy, and consumer goods for at least a few days, if not a few weeks. It's a small, subtle hint, but right now we need to keep as much wind at our back as we can. Likewise, I think the rotation out of financials, industrials, tech, and materials is apt to keep them best used as bearish/shorting candidates.

    But which healthcare stocks? We can keep 'drilling-down' to find the best of the best. In fact, the same technique properly hinted which healthcare industries were poised to lead, and which were poised to lag. Here's the healthcare industry breakdown 'as of' last Friday, May 8th.


    Needless to say, facilities look strong, but also troubling....well overbought, and best avoided at this point. Biotech seems to have nothing to offer either. Equipment and pharmaceutical stocks, however, look like they're pulling out of a slump. Those are your best bets.

    And how's it come along since then? Though three days isn't enough to call anything iron-clad, we are indeed seeing those clues play out as expected. Here's the updated chart.


    Not only is pharma doing well within the sector, it's one of the few winners this week at all. They're not big winners yet, but a small win is better than a big loss.

    And yes, based on this data, I'm bullish on pharma and equipment makers. Facilities are overdone, and biotech is still ill.

    Check back later this week, as I'm going to have some specific pharmaceutical stock picks for you.

    by Aggressively Conservative 


    May 14 1:35 PM | Link | Comment!
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