Myron Shlapak

Michael Masters Report: Not the Whole Story on Commodity Prices

Which came first, the Wellhead price increases or the Futures price increases?

As I recall, in the past there were few if any House Flippers yet housing prices still rose, but at a more moderate pace. Then all of a sudden they soared to extreme heights in a very short duration.

Now with the Flippers mostly gone house prices are declining and a glut of vacant buildings and lots dot the landscape.

I read recently that Spot oil is below Futures prices, Contango.

Should the speculators have higher margin requirements? Should potential homebuyers be required to make a substantial down payment? We may not want to answer the first question but we do know the ramifications of not enforcing the second.

Are US Inflationary Concerns Inflated?

The other thing to keep in mind about inflation is that it exists without a need to change.

Energy cost have gone up. All agree. If Energy costs do not go up any further but stay at their high level there is no inflation rate in the cost of Energy.

So as long as the price increases are a One and Done deal, there is no inflation rate other than that one month indication and when averaged out over a year may even show up as Deflation if there is a small reduction.

Ah, numbers. What magic we can produce with them if we try.

U.S. Long Bonds: Be Careful, We're in Injury Time

Granger,

I have some PFN. It is an Adjustable Rate Loan fund. As short term rates are currently going down, its monthly payment is being reduced and current holders are selling. This is causing PFN to sell at a discount to NAV, it is an PIMCO/Allianz ETF.

If you believe, as I do, that the future direction of interest rates are higher than these type of funds may be the way to go.

One caveate, as rates go up marginal borrowers will go belly-up at a higher rate.

Crack Prices Plunge—Fred Reserve

I am not pleased with the Fed actions but I shudder to think of what the alternatives would be.

Blame Realtors, Brokers and Bankers - Not Greenspan

We can not blame all on Mr. A.G. but we should let the chips fall where they will.

The Fed has other duties and tools available to them for controlling/directing the economy and investing. Many conservative economists over the years of his career called upon him and the Monetary Committee to utilize those other tools, raise margin percentages for one, to halt the exuberance.

When he said the low, long term rates were a Conundrum it should have been a Red Flag that something was going on and the Fed should have been on their toes. When the Banks began giving money away they had a responsibility to slow or even end the party.

No one wants to be a Party Pooper and this is one reason why the Maestro was so revered. He always seemed to be able to orchestrate another Encore.

Crowds Still Not Rushing Into Gold

The headline in the Sunday Press, A.C. local paper, was GOLD. In big Gold Capital letters!

Basically, the story was of people bringing in their old or damaged gold jewelry for cash.

As the Hunt brothers found out, a vast amount of precious metal is stored on the wrists and necks of the world and at the right price it comes off.

What Do Fed Rate Cuts Mean for Your Stock Portfolio?

One thing to keep in mind regarding the potentially low interest rates.

It is only good for the economy if someone is willing to lend it out.

So far just about all the money coming from the Fed is staying in the Banks, only trickles are getting out to thier best clients. High risk will not see any cash for some time.

Stocks Stink. Buy Bonds!

It is a little late to get the best income bonds as those are now selling at premiums. There are still some decent bonds, GMAC - COMCAST - Bear Sterns, to name a few that are still available at a discount.

GMAC is rated at junk but is not likely to go belly-up, but then that is what I also said about MCI. So look to your own sence of risk aversion.

Is Overindebtedness Pushing Us Into a Deflationary Spriral?

Good point History101 except that trade is not the problem. The problem is Competition. If you believe in a Capitalist society then you must believe in Competition. The competition is killing us.

Had the bigwigs in Detroit spent the money on research, instead of giving themselves ever-larger bonuses, they might have developed a more fuel-efficient car. A car that got 100 miles to the gallon, looked well ran cleanly and needed only minimum maintenance. Would it matter much if the car cost a couple of thousand more because it was made in America. I don’t think so.

Jeremy Grantham: Hold Cash, Not Stocks

How much of the current meltdown is due to the recent exposure at Societe Generale?

There seems to be an Imelda load of shoes still to drop.

What Happens When Globalization Goes Bad?

There was an editorial in Barons some months back about reverse immigration. US cititzens leaving the country permanently to start lives elsewhere.

This had been going on for sometime with retirees, where the strong dollar allowed people to enhance their lifestyles in countries like Spain and Poland. Of course that was prior to the Euro.

The gist of the editorial, and I wish I had kept the authors name, was that Young families are packing up and moving out. They are going to where the jobs and opportunities are.

This country is a country of immagrents. When we stop the flow of new blood coming in it will become a country of old foggies.

Globalization is not bad. It is a wake-up call to US, compete or die.

A Guide to Subprime Terms and Possible Solutions

Naysayer, the US Depression lasted over 10 years and only ended by substantial Government spending during WW II. We already have a World War going on in Iraq and Afghanistan. If you don't think so just look at all of the Nations involved in the fighting

Sksqia, the idea may be wacky but not more so than the abrogation of valid contracts outside of the bankruptcy courts.

And as far as a budget buster, what budget? We went from a surplus to a deficit in two years, or less. But enough of politics.

I suggested that the monies used be the funds that are allocated for Revenue Sharing with the States. This is money already in the Budget, when it gets approved