myWealth.com

Shares Could Be Signaling an Upward Turn for Chinese Economy

I'll put it this way. I would not be comfortable being long our Treasuries right now with the "bubble type" environment that they've produced. I'd be more inclined to short treasuries at this point.

Now with that said, I think they have to keep buying some of our treasuries just like we will keep buying some of their goods. But if they were smart, they'd buy less and less of our treasuries and invest elsewhere. So I'm answering this from a "what is prudent for them" stand point rather than my selfish desire as an American to keep seeing them buy them. ha-ha!

So I think they will keep buying. The question is at what pace will they be buying (how much). That's the real question. Because if they don't buy enough as they have in the past, it could still be bad for our treasury market.

If I were them, I'd buy more gold than treasuries at this point and emerging market stocks/bonds from places like Brazil, Turkey and South Africa. They are beaten down and carry high yields. Since they don't need to "cash in" immediately and they can hold for long periods of time, this is where I would go if I were them.

Japanese investors are already starting to do this. See my article here: www.mywealth.com/blog/...


On Feb 07 11:57 PM mr freddo wrote:

> Do you have any idea how this spending plan will effect China's appetite
> for our treasury bills?
>

Shares Could Be Signaling an Upward Turn for Chinese Economy

It's very hard for the average individual to invest in Chinese individual stocks and know what they are getting into. I'd suggest sticking with CAF (the ETF) or another ETF (FXI). My preference is the former.

I'd always stay diverse in China and never isolate my money to their individual stocks or even just one sector over there...since people have such a hard time getting data from outside of China.

Until they develop further and also have less controls on information, I'd stick to that game plan of ETF investing in China.

You might ask a broker like Interactive Brokers that deals in so many international markets how to invest in their auto industry. But I'd never suggest doing so. Stay broad and diverse.


On Feb 06 03:54 PM Aalan wrote:

> We are getting so many mixed signals; so many reports of recession,
> etc. and who knows what economic statistics are valid vs. manipulated,
> let alone stock prices!
>
> Still, overall I think your thesis is correct. How does one invest
> in the Chinese auto industry?

Shares Could Be Signaling an Upward Turn for Chinese Economy

Don't come on here and pump your stocks....keep commentary relevant to the story at hand please.