myWealth.com

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies: My Predictions for 2009

Glad you enjoyed the commentary, guys. Was glad I was able to clarify my points as well.

I thank all of you for reading my posts. I appreciate that. Visit my website if you get a chance sometime too.

Looking forward to many more articles on Seeking Alpha. I love this site.

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies: My Predictions for 2009

Historically, stocks start to recover when unemployment is at its highest. Why? The lead time that stocks have over the actual economic cycle.

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies: My Predictions for 2009

Things are always still bad economically while stocks start to recover. This is due to markets anticipating recoveries about 3-6 months in advance of the trough in the economic cycle.

They want to grab up value before it becomes obvious to everyone. Some think that stocks rise as the economy rises, but that's not how it happens. The rise in stocks precedes the rise of the economy (in anticipation of a recovery).

Here's a good example of this: images.google.com/imgr...

See the stock market move in red and the economic move (cycle) in green.

So what I'm talking about is the stock cycle that leads the economic cycle.

Hope that helps in clarifying. This is why there will still be bad news surfacing yet stocks eventually rallying. That always leaves people scratching their heads. However. once they see how the market cycles coincide with economic cycles, it solves the mystery.

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies: My Predictions for 2009

It wasn't by chance. It was by macro analysis. Looking at the whole pie and not just one piece.

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies: My Predictions for 2009

Great analysis is never by chance.

Six Promising Post-Recession Sectors

You have to remember that the masses get it wrong every time. They don't see tops forming and they don't see bottoms coming either. So if you're waiting for a consensus before hopping into stocks, you will be way too late.

If Greenspan's 1% rates spurred a market bubble....wonder what Bernanke's 0% rates will do? He's printed more money, reduced rates, about to buy Treasuries, taken on positions in companies, etc.

So if you watch too much financial T.V., then it won't be seen. But for the independent thinkers/analysts and researchers out there....there will be a few that see it coming and that have been around long enough to see how these have played out throughout history.
www.mywealth.com/blog/

Six Promising Post-Recession Sectors

Good point,Dave.

Transports and Tech generally turn up first: IYT, SEA, XLK and IYW are ETFs to look at there. Pick one Trans and one Tech out of those.

Services will perk up next: IYC

then commodities: JJG, DBC

Energy (oil/nat. gas): USO, UNG

Financial (Banks): KBE, IYF

Hope that helps, man.