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Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies: My Predictions for 2009

Glad you enjoyed the commentary, guys. Was glad I was able to clarify my points as well.

I thank all of you for reading my posts. I appreciate that. Visit my website if you get a chance sometime too.

Looking forward to many more articles on Seeking Alpha. I love this site.

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies: My Predictions for 2009

Historically, stocks start to recover when unemployment is at its highest. Why? The lead time that stocks have over the actual economic cycle.

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies: My Predictions for 2009

Things are always still bad economically while stocks start to recover. This is due to markets anticipating recoveries about 3-6 months in advance of the trough in the economic cycle.

They want to grab up value before it becomes obvious to everyone. Some think that stocks rise as the economy rises, but that's not how it happens. The rise in stocks precedes the rise of the economy (in anticipation of a recovery).

Here's a good example of this: images.google.com/imgr...

See the stock market move in red and the economic move (cycle) in green.

So what I'm talking about is the stock cycle that leads the economic cycle.

Hope that helps in clarifying. This is why there will still be bad news surfacing yet stocks eventually rallying. That always leaves people scratching their heads. However. once they see how the market cycles coincide with economic cycles, it solves the mystery.

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies: My Predictions for 2009

It wasn't by chance. It was by macro analysis. Looking at the whole pie and not just one piece.

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies: My Predictions for 2009

Great analysis is never by chance.