Nadeem Moulvi - Seeking Alpha 'Nadeem Moulvi' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/nadeem-moulvi Dolby Keeps Marching Ahead http://seekingalpha.com/article/152862-dolby-keeps-marching-ahead?source=feed 152862 It was another great quarter for Dolby Laboratories (DLB). Dolby announced the financial results for the third quarter, handily beating analyst expectations. The company reported an EPS of $0.44 compared to an EPS of $0.40 a year ago. Analysts were expecting an income of $0.31 a share on revenues of $147.2 million. It should be noted that revenues in the quarter included approximately $22 million from prior period shipments.

More importantly, Dolby revised its guidance for the current financial year. The company now expects to report revenue in the range of $700 million to $715 million compared to its previous outlook of $650 million to $700 million. It expects an EPS of $2.01 to $2.06, up from its previous guidance of $1.76 to $1.91 a share.

]]> Fri, 31 Jul 2009 10:02:12 -0400 Nadeem Moulvi It was another great quarter for Dolby Laboratories (DLB). Dolby announced the financial results for the third quarter, handily beating analyst expectations. The company reported an EPS of $0.44 compared to an EPS of $0.40 a year ago. Analysts were expecting an income of $0.31 a share on revenues of $147.2 million. It should be noted that revenues in the quarter included approximately $22 million from prior period shipments.

More importantly, Dolby revised its guidance for the current financial year. The company now expects to report revenue in the range of $700 million to $715 million compared to its previous outlook of $650 million to $700 million. It expects an EPS of $2.01 to $2.06, up from its previous guidance of $1.76 to $1.91 a share.


Complete Story »]]> DLB Nadeem Moulvi Hansen Natural Should Energize Your Portfolio http://seekingalpha.com/article/150379-hansen-natural-should-energize-your-portfolio?source=feed 150379 According to the Beverage Marketing Corporation, the alternative beverage segment is the fastest growing category of the beverage industry. One company from this segment that I particularly like is Hansen Natural Corporation (HANS). It develops, markets, sells, and distributes alternative beverage category natural sodas, energy drinks (including the popular Monster energy drinks), non-carbonated iced-tea, etc.

Hansen Natural in many ways epitomizes the strong growth in the alternative beverage segment, boasting an impressive 40 percent annual growth rate over the last five years. During the 13 weeks through January 24, 2009, Neilsen reports that at all convenience, grocery, drug and mass outlets (excluding Wal-Mart), Monster grew by approximately 14 percent while the energy drink segment grew by 8 percent. This outperformance continued through May of this year with industry sales declining 4.6 percent while HANS grew 0.2 percent.

]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 06:08:23 -0400 Nadeem Moulvi According to the Beverage Marketing Corporation, the alternative beverage segment is the fastest growing category of the beverage industry. One company from this segment that I particularly like is Hansen Natural Corporation (HANS). It develops, markets, sells, and distributes alternative beverage category natural sodas, energy drinks (including the popular Monster energy drinks), non-carbonated iced-tea, etc.

Hansen Natural in many ways epitomizes the strong growth in the alternative beverage segment, boasting an impressive 40 percent annual growth rate over the last five years. During the 13 weeks through January 24, 2009, Neilsen reports that at all convenience, grocery, drug and mass outlets (excluding Wal-Mart), Monster grew by approximately 14 percent while the energy drink segment grew by 8 percent. This outperformance continued through May of this year with industry sales declining 4.6 percent while HANS grew 0.2 percent.


Complete Story »]]> HANS Nadeem Moulvi Thompson Creek Raises Production Guidance; Pullback Is Buy Opportunity http://seekingalpha.com/article/143141-thompson-creek-raises-production-guidance-pullback-is-buy-opportunity?source=feed 143141 In an article dated June 7, 2009, based on the increasing demand for molybdenum, I predicted that Thompson Creek Metals Company (TC) would announce actual molybdenum production near the high end of its 2009 forecast. Just a day later, on June 8, Thompson Creek stated in a press release that it was making operational improvements and now expected to produce between 22 million and 26 million pounds of molybdenum, revised from a previous estimate of 20 to 24 million pounds. Further, it reduced its 2009 cash production estimate from a previous guidance of $6.25 to $7.25 a pound to a revised estimate of $5.75 to $7 a pound. It should be noted that the production cost estimates were reduced once before on May 7, 2009 when TC declared its 1st quarter results.

Based on this update from TC, I have revised by estimates for the current financial year. Assuming an average molybdenum price of $10 a pound for the rest of the financial year, a production of 24 million pounds and cash production costs of $6.5 a pound, I now expect Thompson Creek to report an EPS of $0.34. My 2010 EPS estimate remains unchanged ($1.10).

]]> Mon, 15 Jun 2009 04:18:13 -0400 Nadeem Moulvi In an article dated June 7, 2009, based on the increasing demand for molybdenum, I predicted that Thompson Creek Metals Company (TC) would announce actual molybdenum production near the high end of its 2009 forecast. Just a day later, on June 8, Thompson Creek stated in a press release that it was making operational improvements and now expected to produce between 22 million and 26 million pounds of molybdenum, revised from a previous estimate of 20 to 24 million pounds. Further, it reduced its 2009 cash production estimate from a previous guidance of $6.25 to $7.25 a pound to a revised estimate of $5.75 to $7 a pound. It should be noted that the production cost estimates were reduced once before on May 7, 2009 when TC declared its 1st quarter results.

Based on this update from TC, I have revised by estimates for the current financial year. Assuming an average molybdenum price of $10 a pound for the rest of the financial year, a production of 24 million pounds and cash production costs of $6.5 a pound, I now expect Thompson Creek to report an EPS of $0.34. My 2010 EPS estimate remains unchanged ($1.10).


Complete Story »]]> TC Nadeem Moulvi Diamond Offshore and Noble Corp: Drilling Profits http://seekingalpha.com/article/141855-diamond-offshore-and-noble-corp-drilling-profits?source=feed 141855 Investing in the offshore drilling sector has been my preferred method of gaining exposure to the oil and natural gas industry and profiting from the rising commodity prices. Offshore drilling contracts are generally long term and therefore provide the companies with some level of visibility into future earnings.

Further the business can be extremely profitable across a wide range of oil prices and, to a certain extent, is not dependant on the daily variation in the price of oil and gas.

]]> Mon, 08 Jun 2009 02:08:04 -0400 Nadeem Moulvi Investing in the offshore drilling sector has been my preferred method of gaining exposure to the oil and natural gas industry and profiting from the rising commodity prices. Offshore drilling contracts are generally long term and therefore provide the companies with some level of visibility into future earnings.

Further the business can be extremely profitable across a wide range of oil prices and, to a certain extent, is not dependant on the daily variation in the price of oil and gas.


Complete Story »]]> DO NE RIG Nadeem Moulvi Thompson Creek: A Molybdenum Stock to Strengthen Your Portfolio http://seekingalpha.com/article/141793-thompson-creek-a-molybdenum-stock-to-strengthen-your-portfolio?source=feed 141793 Thompson Creek Metals Company (TC) is a Canadian mining company and is one of the largest pure molybdenum producers in the world. Molybdenum is alloyed with steel making the steel stronger and is widely used in the iron and steel industry. With declining steel demand owing to the global recession, the price of molybdenum fell from approximately $34 a pound to just under $8 a pound in the last quarter of last year and the during the first quarter of the current financial year.

Thompson Creek was adversely affected by the sharp decline in prices and resorted to production cuts in response to lower molybdenum demand. In January, it announced that its molybdenum production was expected to be in the range of 20 to 24 million pounds in 2009, revised from previous guidance of 31.5 to 34 million pounds. This was in line with the 10 million pound production cut announced by Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the largest producer of molybdenum in the world.

]]> Sun, 07 Jun 2009 07:22:40 -0400 Nadeem Moulvi Thompson Creek Metals Company (TC) is a Canadian mining company and is one of the largest pure molybdenum producers in the world. Molybdenum is alloyed with steel making the steel stronger and is widely used in the iron and steel industry. With declining steel demand owing to the global recession, the price of molybdenum fell from approximately $34 a pound to just under $8 a pound in the last quarter of last year and the during the first quarter of the current financial year.

Thompson Creek was adversely affected by the sharp decline in prices and resorted to production cuts in response to lower molybdenum demand. In January, it announced that its molybdenum production was expected to be in the range of 20 to 24 million pounds in 2009, revised from previous guidance of 31.5 to 34 million pounds. This was in line with the 10 million pound production cut announced by Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the largest producer of molybdenum in the world.


Complete Story »]]> FCX TC Nadeem Moulvi Dolby: Buying Opportunity in a 'Best of Breed' Sound Company http://seekingalpha.com/article/140580-dolby-buying-opportunity-in-a-best-of-breed-sound-company?source=feed 140580 On April 30, 2009, Dolby Laboratories (DLB) declared financial results for the second quarter 2009 reporting an EPS of $0.60 (Call Transcript). Not surprisingly, the results were ahead of street expectations of $0.46. Further, Dolby tightened the full year earnings outlook and now expects to earn between $1.76 and $1.91 a share. Previously, it had forecast an EPS in the range of $1.66 to $1.91. At close, the stock was trading at approximately $41 a share.

In the past month, despite the absence of any major development, the stock has lost more than 10% of its value and currently trades just above $36. I believe that this offers an opportunity to accumulate shares of a ‘best of the breed’ sound technologies company.

]]> Mon, 01 Jun 2009 04:52:53 -0400 Nadeem Moulvi On April 30, 2009, Dolby Laboratories (DLB) declared financial results for the second quarter 2009 reporting an EPS of $0.60 (Call Transcript). Not surprisingly, the results were ahead of street expectations of $0.46. Further, Dolby tightened the full year earnings outlook and now expects to earn between $1.76 and $1.91 a share. Previously, it had forecast an EPS in the range of $1.66 to $1.91. At close, the stock was trading at approximately $41 a share.

In the past month, despite the absence of any major development, the stock has lost more than 10% of its value and currently trades just above $36. I believe that this offers an opportunity to accumulate shares of a ‘best of the breed’ sound technologies company.


Complete Story »]]> DLB Nadeem Moulvi Corning: Better Days Ahead http://seekingalpha.com/article/140343-corning-better-days-ahead?source=feed 140343 Corning (GLW) is one of the core holdings in my long term portfolio. Established in 1851, Corning occupies a leadership position in all the major markets in which it participates.

Corning is a technology based corporation and is a global leader in display technologies and high fiber optics. It produces glass components, such as substrates for active matrix liquid crystal displays (LCDs), for use in LCD televisions, notebook computers and desktop monitors. It also manufactures optical fiber and cable, and hardware and equipments products for the telecommunication industry. Additionally, Corning operates in other segments such as environmental technologies and provides solutions for emission control in mobile and stationary applications.

]]> Fri, 29 May 2009 23:08:00 -0400 Nadeem Moulvi Corning (GLW) is one of the core holdings in my long term portfolio. Established in 1851, Corning occupies a leadership position in all the major markets in which it participates.

Corning is a technology based corporation and is a global leader in display technologies and high fiber optics. It produces glass components, such as substrates for active matrix liquid crystal displays (LCDs), for use in LCD televisions, notebook computers and desktop monitors. It also manufactures optical fiber and cable, and hardware and equipments products for the telecommunication industry. Additionally, Corning operates in other segments such as environmental technologies and provides solutions for emission control in mobile and stationary applications.


Complete Story »]]> GLW Nadeem Moulvi Aeropostale Gaining Market Share http://seekingalpha.com/article/139515-aeropostale-gaining-market-share?source=feed 139515 On May 21, 2009 Aeropostale (ARO) declared financial results for the first quarter of the 2009 financial year. The company reported quarterly earnings of $31.7 Million or an EPS of $0.47 beating the average analyst EPS estimate of $0.45. In spite of difficult market conditions, the company increased its sales by 21% to $408 Million, meeting analyst expectations. It also recorded an impressive 11% increase in same store sales, a key performance metric for retailers. In contrast, its principal competitors have been experiencing a decline in same store sales. As an example, on May 7 American Eagle (AEO) reported that its same store sales declined by 5% in the month of April and by 10% in the previous quarter (AEO declares its quarterly financial results on May 27, 2009). This indicates that Aeropostale has been gaining market share. This gain in market share was in spite of the 5% increase in average selling price.

More importantly, ARO issued guidance for the second quarter in the range of $0.43 to $0.45 a share significantly ahead of average analyst estimates of $0.36 a share. Post results, several analysts have revised their financial year 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates. They now expect ARO to earn $2.59 a share in 2010 and $2.75 a share in 2011.

]]> Tue, 26 May 2009 06:20:07 -0400 Nadeem Moulvi On May 21, 2009 Aeropostale (ARO) declared financial results for the first quarter of the 2009 financial year. The company reported quarterly earnings of $31.7 Million or an EPS of $0.47 beating the average analyst EPS estimate of $0.45. In spite of difficult market conditions, the company increased its sales by 21% to $408 Million, meeting analyst expectations. It also recorded an impressive 11% increase in same store sales, a key performance metric for retailers. In contrast, its principal competitors have been experiencing a decline in same store sales. As an example, on May 7 American Eagle (AEO) reported that its same store sales declined by 5% in the month of April and by 10% in the previous quarter (AEO declares its quarterly financial results on May 27, 2009). This indicates that Aeropostale has been gaining market share. This gain in market share was in spite of the 5% increase in average selling price.

More importantly, ARO issued guidance for the second quarter in the range of $0.43 to $0.45 a share significantly ahead of average analyst estimates of $0.36 a share. Post results, several analysts have revised their financial year 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates. They now expect ARO to earn $2.59 a share in 2010 and $2.75 a share in 2011.


Complete Story »]]> AEO ARO Nadeem Moulvi Coach: Time to Shop for a Handbag http://seekingalpha.com/article/138588-coach-time-to-shop-for-a-handbag?source=feed 138588 In continuing with my love for the retail sector, this article analyses the leading accessories retailer, Coach Inc. (COH).

Background Information

]]> Wed, 20 May 2009 04:06:47 -0400 Nadeem Moulvi In continuing with my love for the retail sector, this article analyses the leading accessories retailer, Coach Inc. (COH).

Background Information


Complete Story »]]> COH Nadeem Moulvi Bet on the Unemployment Rate: Invest in Small Business Through PEOs http://seekingalpha.com/article/137898-bet-on-the-unemployment-rate-invest-in-small-business-through-peos?source=feed 137898 The rate of unemployment is a well known lagging indicator of the economy. For instance, many market experts have predicted that the stock market has already hit a bottom and is currently in a consolidation phase. However, the rate of unemployment is still expected to inch higher in the coming months before stabilizing. In contrast, the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy. As a case in point, since the March lows, the S&P 500 index has rallied by approximately 30%.

One way of betting on the unemployment rate is investing in small businesses. They make up more than 99% of all US employers. In this recession these companies suffered, among other reasons, owing to the credit freeze. In March this year, President Obama set aside approximately $375 Million to bolster small business lending in the form of loan guarantees. It is expected that this program would help existing small business (not to be confused with small capitalization stocks) expand and grow.

]]> Fri, 15 May 2009 09:14:17 -0400 Nadeem Moulvi The rate of unemployment is a well known lagging indicator of the economy. For instance, many market experts have predicted that the stock market has already hit a bottom and is currently in a consolidation phase. However, the rate of unemployment is still expected to inch higher in the coming months before stabilizing. In contrast, the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy. As a case in point, since the March lows, the S&P 500 index has rallied by approximately 30%.

One way of betting on the unemployment rate is investing in small businesses. They make up more than 99% of all US employers. In this recession these companies suffered, among other reasons, owing to the credit freeze. In March this year, President Obama set aside approximately $375 Million to bolster small business lending in the form of loan guarantees. It is expected that this program would help existing small business (not to be confused with small capitalization stocks) expand and grow.


Complete Story »]]> ASF PAYX PEO Nadeem Moulvi Battle of the Retailers: American Eagle, Abercrombie and Aeropostale http://seekingalpha.com/article/136830-battle-of-the-retailers-american-eagle-abercrombie-and-aeropostale?source=feed 136830 One of the primary rules of investing is having a thorough knowledge of the business model of your planned investment. This is one of the major reasons why I like the retail sector. It is not abstract and is very intuitive. You can walk into a mall and see the retailers you own in operation, visualize the supply chain and the factors that would affect the business.

As an example, during this recession American Eagle (AEO) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) employed two contrasting approaches in their day to day operations. With a view of controlling its inventory, American Eagle resorted to massive markdowns. Contrarily, Abercrombie & Fitch was more concerned about protecting its brand value and did not resort to promotional events and sales. By walking into a mall, one could see this strategy in operation. When the two firms reported their financial results, it was no surprise that margins at American Eagle fell by approximately 1,000 bps compared to the 400 bps fall in margins at Abercrombie and Fitch.

]]> Mon, 11 May 2009 06:13:59 -0400 Nadeem Moulvi One of the primary rules of investing is having a thorough knowledge of the business model of your planned investment. This is one of the major reasons why I like the retail sector. It is not abstract and is very intuitive. You can walk into a mall and see the retailers you own in operation, visualize the supply chain and the factors that would affect the business.

As an example, during this recession American Eagle (AEO) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) employed two contrasting approaches in their day to day operations. With a view of controlling its inventory, American Eagle resorted to massive markdowns. Contrarily, Abercrombie & Fitch was more concerned about protecting its brand value and did not resort to promotional events and sales. By walking into a mall, one could see this strategy in operation. When the two firms reported their financial results, it was no surprise that margins at American Eagle fell by approximately 1,000 bps compared to the 400 bps fall in margins at Abercrombie and Fitch.


Complete Story »]]> AEO ANF ARO Nadeem Moulvi Expect FactSet's Stock Price to Decline http://seekingalpha.com/article/136770-expect-factset-s-stock-price-to-decline?source=feed 136770 I have been following FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS) for a long time now as it consistently appears on the primary stock screening tool that I employ in short listing companies (see my profile for further details). It is the undisputed leader in providing financial and economic information to companies worldwide and enjoys a monopolistic position.

FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FactSet) is a provider of integrated global financial and economic information, including fundamental financial data on a number of companies worldwide. FactSet offers access to financial data and analytics to investment professionals worldwide. Its applications support and make workflows for buy and sell-side professionals. These professionals include portfolio managers, research and performance analysts, risk managers, marketing professionals, sell-side equity research professionals, investment bankers and fixed income professionals. Its applications provide users access to company analysis, multicompany comparisons, industry analysis, company screening, portfolio analysis, predictive risk measurements, alpha testing, portfolio optimization and simulation, real-time news and quotes and tools to value and analyze fixed income securities and portfolios.

]]> Sun, 10 May 2009 11:02:52 -0400 Nadeem Moulvi I have been following FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS) for a long time now as it consistently appears on the primary stock screening tool that I employ in short listing companies (see my profile for further details). It is the undisputed leader in providing financial and economic information to companies worldwide and enjoys a monopolistic position.

FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FactSet) is a provider of integrated global financial and economic information, including fundamental financial data on a number of companies worldwide. FactSet offers access to financial data and analytics to investment professionals worldwide. Its applications support and make workflows for buy and sell-side professionals. These professionals include portfolio managers, research and performance analysts, risk managers, marketing professionals, sell-side equity research professionals, investment bankers and fixed income professionals. Its applications provide users access to company analysis, multicompany comparisons, industry analysis, company screening, portfolio analysis, predictive risk measurements, alpha testing, portfolio optimization and simulation, real-time news and quotes and tools to value and analyze fixed income securities and portfolios.


Complete Story »]]> FDS Nadeem Moulvi