Nadeem Walayat

Roubini Says 'Don't Forget About Me'

Roubini is a broken record, will eventually be right, though if you put money on his call you will lose everything in the meantime.

www.marketoracle.co.uk...

Robert Prechter to Investors: Play It Safe, Rally Is Over

On Nov 11 11:58 AM wallstreeter2001 wrote:

> He was a bull before at the depths of the 70's/80's recession. Stocks
> came back strong after this call. He was correct on a call just before
> the 1987 market crash. He correctly called the December 2007 bear
> market in October 2007. He called the bear market rally this year
> a couple weeks before the bottom in March 2009 and said the Dow would
> rise to about 10,000-11,000. Seems like a pretty good record to me.


Heres what he actually said rather than what people think he said on 25th feb 09

Even though the S&P is at its lowest level in 12 years this is not a market call either we will need to finish the wave structure on the downside or get a rally to decide to be bearish again. It is time to take some money off the table when the market is that friendly with you. We are just sitting back and watching and probably still some downside to go and certainly not the end of the bear market by any means.

So Bob this is not necessarily a bullish call this is more whether you should be greedy in your profit taking ?

Yeah, That is exactly right it is definitely NOT a bullish call we are certainly not buying any stocks they are still extremely overvalued by every measure by dividends, earnings, book value, you name it. The bear market has a long way to go ass you know from the forecasts's I am making there are at least 2 more years to go. We are thinking there may be a short term low somewhere here in the first quarter, but there is still plenty of risk and there is plenty of risk of buying stocks, investors should stay safe.

Robert Prechter to Investors: Play It Safe, Rally Is Over

In March Prechter says the bear market would end by early 2011 Now 2014-2016.

Robert Prechter to Investors: Play It Safe, Rally Is Over

On Nov 10 02:53 PM The EconomicJoker wrote:

> I wonder how many of these posters have multiple best selling books
> on the economy.
>
> I bet zero.
>
> So zip it.

Because successful traders are busy trading rather taking a year or two to write each book.

Multiple best selling books ?

So when does the trading take place ?

Reacting to Roubini's Predictions: The Economy, Dollar Carry-Trade, Housing

Roubini's track record -

www.marketoracle.co.uk...

The Suckers Rally, Japan Style

<p>The only suckers are those that shorted the rally, I wrote in Mid March to ignore corporate earnings - in the article</p>
<p><A href="www.marketoracle.co.uk...">Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470</A></p>
<p>Quote - </p>
<p>Yes I am aware of the on-going corporate earnings contraction forecasts that SUGGEST stocks should be going MUCH lower, though some of the estimates of where the market should be heading to are pretty ridiculous, were talking ridiculous price levels of as low as DJIA 400! However the stocks bull market was also elevated to Dow 14,000 on the basis of corporate EARNINGS forecasts that suggested that Stocks should go MUCH HIGHER. So what does that tell you ? <STRONG>It tells you that what you tend to read is always suggestive of the JUNCTURE being FAR AWAY, NOT imminent</STRONG>. <SPAN class="style1">IT IS ONLY LONG AFTER THE FACT, AFTER MARKET'S HAVE ALREADY MOVED THAT THE JUNCTURE IS RECOGNISED AND ANALYSIS PRESENTED AS TO WHAT WENT WRONG WITH THE SCENERIO THAT CALLED FOR MUCH LOWER PRICES. </SPAN></p>
<p>Similarly wide spread consensus today exists for SHARPLY LOWER CORPORATE EARNINGS going into 2010 THAT MUST MEAN MUCH LOWER STOCK PRICES. However this earnings analysis that is so abundant today, should have been presented OVER A YEAR AGO ! in October 2007 I.e. at or near the market peak! So that ordinary investors could actually ACT on the information. NOT NOW AT THE MARKET BOTTOM ! We are again seeing REASONS as to WHY INVESTORS should avoid investing INTO the Stealth Bull market!, precisely as we all witnessed what was effectively Bullish propaganda during the final stages of the Stocks Bull Market, so we are NOW witnessing what is effectively BEARISH propaganda in the final stages of the Bear Market. Now, don't get me wrong, I am not saying that the analysis is not genuine, what I am saying is that IT IS IRRELEVANT! As it is always much easier to build a scenario in favour of a trend that has been in force for sometime that has generated much data and analysis in support of why it exists and therefore it should continue for much longer, then to <SPAN class="style1"><... <STRONG>Out side of the Box"</STRONG><... to disregard bearish data that has been magnified by the growing consensus that really should have been known more than a year earlier in favour of the technical picture that as the analysis of <A href="www.marketoracle.co.uk...">October 2008</A> stated, that <SPAN class="style17"><... we are NOT heading for a Great Depression</SPAN> (as I will further elaborate upon in the Q&amp;A below) and<SPAN class="style17"> b. The stocks bear market HAS fulfilled its bear market objectives in terms of price and time</SPAN>, more than anyone could have been imagined a year ago!</p>
<p>But now, even after the stock price wipeout to below Dow 6,600. The analytical weight bearing down of overwhelming information is that in support of a continuing meltdown for even as long as several more years towards Dow targets such as 4,000 or even as low as 400 by what can only be termed as perma-bear psychology. Remember Dow 14,000, NO ONE PAID ATTENTION to the perma-bears at that time. As the market was firmly in grip of the perma-bull psychology which was eyeing Goldilocks levels of 18,000. There were even calls that China's SSE at 6,000 should go much higher, despite being on a P/E of about 60. The uber bullish media played on the fact that the NASDAQ peaked on a P/E north of 100, so much for the earnings factor! In fact I pointed out in November 2007 that investors should get out of china AT SSE 6,000 and to forget SSE 9,000, its going straight down towards an initial target of 4,000. Instead today earnings is brought to the fore to support a further collapse of stock prices to what is commonly referred to as reversion to below the mean, <SPAN class="style1">AS AN EXCUSE TO FALL FOR THE TRAP OF PERPETUATING A DISTANT JUNCTURE BOTH IN TERMS OF PRICE AND TIME</SPAN>. Therefore repeating the same mistakes that occur at ALL market Junctures ! Which is DATA is PUT AHEAD of PRICE ! To which my answer is this - What are you trading ? Are you trading the Corporate Earnings Data or the actual Stock Index ? </p>
<p>The only thing that actually matters is the PRICE ! NOTHING ELSE! and I mean NOTHING ! Not earnings, Not fundamentals. Listen to the PRICE or you WILL miss the Stealth Bull Market! </p>
<p>

Is This a Sucker's Rally?

</p>
<p>I wrote in Mid March to ignore corporate earnings - in the article</p>
<p><A href="www.marketoracle.co.uk...">Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470</A></p>
<p>Quote - </p>
<p>Yes I am aware of the on-going corporate earnings contraction forecasts that SUGGEST stocks should be going MUCH lower, though some of the estimates of where the market should be heading to are pretty ridiculous, were talking ridiculous price levels of as low as DJIA 400! However the stocks bull market was also elevated to Dow 14,000 on the basis of corporate EARNINGS forecasts that suggested that Stocks should go MUCH HIGHER. So what does that tell you ? <STRONG>It tells you that what you tend to read is always suggestive of the JUNCTURE being FAR AWAY, NOT imminent</STRONG>. <SPAN class="style1">IT IS ONLY LONG AFTER THE FACT, AFTER MARKET'S HAVE ALREADY MOVED THAT THE JUNCTURE IS RECOGNISED AND ANALYSIS PRESENTED AS TO WHAT WENT WRONG WITH THE SCENERIO THAT CALLED FOR MUCH LOWER PRICES. </SPAN></p>
<p>Similarly wide spread consensus today exists for SHARPLY LOWER CORPORATE EARNINGS going into 2010 THAT MUST MEAN MUCH LOWER STOCK PRICES. However this earnings analysis that is so abundant today, should have been presented OVER A YEAR AGO ! in October 2007 I.e. at or near the market peak! So that ordinary investors could actually ACT on the information. NOT NOW AT THE MARKET BOTTOM ! We are again seeing REASONS as to WHY INVESTORS should avoid investing INTO the Stealth Bull market!, precisely as we all witnessed what was effectively Bullish propaganda during the final stages of the Stocks Bull Market, so we are NOW witnessing what is effectively BEARISH propaganda in the final stages of the Bear Market. Now, don't get me wrong, I am not saying that the analysis is not genuine, what I am saying is that IT IS IRRELEVANT! As it is always much easier to build a scenario in favour of a trend that has been in force for sometime that has generated much data and analysis in support of why it exists and therefore it should continue for much longer, then to <SPAN class="style1"><... <STRONG>Out side of the Box"</STRONG><... to disregard bearish data that has been magnified by the growing consensus that really should have been known more than a year earlier in favour of the technical picture that as the analysis of <A href="www.marketoracle.co.uk...">October 2008</A> stated, that <SPAN class="style17"><... we are NOT heading for a Great Depression</SPAN> (as I will further elaborate upon in the Q&amp;A below) and<SPAN class="style17"> b. The stocks bear market HAS fulfilled its bear market objectives in terms of price and time</SPAN>, more than anyone could have been imagined a year ago!</p>
<p>But now, even after the stock price wipeout to below Dow 6,600. The analytical weight bearing down of overwhelming information is that in support of a continuing meltdown for even as long as several more years towards Dow targets such as 4,000 or even as low as 400 by what can only be termed as perma-bear psychology. Remember Dow 14,000, NO ONE PAID ATTENTION to the perma-bears at that time. As the market was firmly in grip of the perma-bull psychology which was eyeing Goldilocks levels of 18,000. There were even calls that China's SSE at 6,000 should go much higher, despite being on a P/E of about 60. The uber bullish media played on the fact that the NASDAQ peaked on a P/E north of 100, so much for the earnings factor! In fact I pointed out in November 2007 that investors should get out of china AT SSE 6,000 and to forget SSE 9,000, its going straight down towards an initial target of 4,000. Instead today earnings is brought to the fore to support a further collapse of stock prices to what is commonly referred to as reversion to below the mean, <SPAN class="style1">AS AN EXCUSE TO FALL FOR THE TRAP OF PERPETUATING A DISTANT JUNCTURE BOTH IN TERMS OF PRICE AND TIME</SPAN>. Therefore repeating the same mistakes that occur at ALL market Junctures ! Which is DATA is PUT AHEAD of PRICE ! To which my answer is this - What are you trading ? Are you trading the Corporate Earnings Data or the actual Stock Index ? </p>
<p>The only thing that actually matters is the PRICE ! NOTHING ELSE! and I mean NOTHING ! Not earnings, Not fundamentals. Listen to the PRICE or you WILL miss the Stealth Bull Market! </p>
<p>

Fleeing Investors Miss Benefits of Sucker's Rally

I wrote in Mid march to ignore corporate earnings - in the article</p>
<p><A href="www.marketoracle.co.uk...">Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470</A></p>
<p>Quote - </p>
<p>Yes I am aware of the on-going corporate earnings contraction forecasts that SUGGEST stocks should be going MUCH lower, though some of the estimates of where the market should be heading to are pretty ridiculous, were talking ridiculous price levels of as low as DJIA 400! However the stocks bull market was also elevated to Dow 14,000 on the basis of corporate EARNINGS forecasts that suggested that Stocks should go MUCH HIGHER. So what does that tell you ? <STRONG>It tells you that what you tend to read is always suggestive of the JUNCTURE being FAR AWAY, NOT imminent</STRONG>. <SPAN class="style1">IT IS ONLY LONG AFTER THE FACT, AFTER MARKET'S HAVE ALREADY MOVED THAT THE JUNCTURE IS RECOGNISED AND ANALYSIS PRESENTED AS TO WHAT WENT WRONG WITH THE SCENERIO THAT CALLED FOR MUCH LOWER PRICES. </SPAN></p>
<p>Similarly wide spread consensus today exists for SHARPLY LOWER CORPORATE EARNINGS going into 2010 THAT MUST MEAN MUCH LOWER STOCK PRICES. However this earnings analysis that is so abundant today, should have been presented OVER A YEAR AGO ! in October 2007 I.e. at or near the market peak! So that ordinary investors could actually ACT on the information. NOT NOW AT THE MARKET BOTTOM ! We are again seeing REASONS as to WHY INVESTORS should avoid investing INTO the Stealth Bull market!, precisely as we all witnessed what was effectively Bullish propaganda during the final stages of the Stocks Bull Market, so we are NOW witnessing what is effectively BEARISH propaganda in the final stages of the Bear Market. Now, don't get me wrong, I am not saying that the analysis is not genuine, what I am saying is that IT IS IRRELEVANT! As it is always much easier to build a scenario in favour of a trend that has been in force for sometime that has generated much data and analysis in support of why it exists and therefore it should continue for much longer, then to <SPAN class="style1"><... <STRONG>Out side of the Box"</STRONG><... to disregard bearish data that has been magnified by the growing consensus that really should have been known more than a year earlier in favour of the technical picture that as the analysis of <A href="www.marketoracle.co.uk...">October 2008</A> stated, that <SPAN class="style17"><... we are NOT heading for a Great Depression</SPAN> (as I will further elaborate upon in the Q&amp;A below) and<SPAN class="style17"> b. The stocks bear market HAS fulfilled its bear market objectives in terms of price and time</SPAN>, more than anyone could have been imagined a year ago!</p>
<p>But now, even after the stock price wipeout to below Dow 6,600. The analytical weight bearing down of overwhelming information is that in support of a continuing meltdown for even as long as several more years towards Dow targets such as 4,000 or even as low as 400 by what can only be termed as perma-bear psychology. Remember Dow 14,000, NO ONE PAID ATTENTION to the perma-bears at that time. As the market was firmly in grip of the perma-bull psychology which was eyeing Goldilocks levels of 18,000. There were even calls that China's SSE at 6,000 should go much higher, despite being on a P/E of about 60. The uber bullish media played on the fact that the NASDAQ peaked on a P/E north of 100, so much for the earnings factor! In fact I pointed out in November 2007 that investors should get out of china AT SSE 6,000 and to forget SSE 9,000, its going straight down towards an initial target of 4,000. Instead today earnings is brought to the fore to support a further collapse of stock prices to what is commonly referred to as reversion to below the mean, <SPAN class="style1">AS AN EXCUSE TO FALL FOR THE TRAP OF PERPETUATING A DISTANT JUNCTURE BOTH IN TERMS OF PRICE AND TIME</SPAN>. Therefore repeating the same mistakes that occur at ALL market Junctures ! Which is DATA is PUT AHEAD of PRICE ! To which my answer is this - What are you trading ? Are you trading the Corporate Earnings Data or the actual Stock Index ? </p>
<p>The only thing that actually matters is the PRICE ! NOTHING ELSE! and I mean NOTHING ! Not earnings, Not fundamentals. Listen to the PRICE or you WILL miss the Stealth Bull Market! </p>
<p>&nbsp;

Ten Reasons for an Imminent Stock Market Crash

When I write an article that says imminent this or imminent that, that means within a few days.

So whats the time line for the expiry of this analysis i.e. being wrong ?

Monday 28th Sept ?

I called for an IMMINENT stocks bear market bottom on 8th March - and it bottomed the NEXT DAY.

www.marketoracle.co.uk...