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Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the... More
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  • UK Inflation Forecast 2010
    Dear Reader

     

    The UK inflation forecast for 2010 is first of a three part series of in depth analysis as part of the inflation mega-trend, with UK interest rates and GDP growth forecast to follow in the coming week. The whole scenario and implications of will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the latest analysis in your email box and check my most recent analysis on the unfolding inflation mega-trend at http://www.walayatstreet.com.

    Inflation Forecast 2009

    The UK Inflation forecast for 2009 (30 Dec 2008 - UK CPI Inflation, RPI Deflation Forecast 2009) proved remarkably accurate with the road map contributing towards the generation of many accurate projections for subsequent trends throughout 2009 and not least for UK savers that for those that followed my cue of fixing savings at rates of above 5% for 1 - 2 years would not have been burned by the subsequent crash in UK interest rates to pittance of as low as 0.1% on savings accounts across the bailed out banking sector and later for stock market investors that monetized on the stealth bull market that began in March 2009 the genesis for which was in the preceding inflation analysis forecast.

    Conclusion - UK Inflation Forecast 2009

    The UK is heading for real deflation during 2009 as the below graph illustrates in that the RPI inflation measure is expected to go negative and spike lower around June / July 2009 as the RPI is sensitive to falling mortgage interest rates. The CPI will also continue to fall sharply into May 2009, which is targeting a rate of just below 1%. However the more money the government borrows as the difference between spending and tax revenues then the greater will be the eventual resulting inflation as there is no such thing as a free lunch, that will reverse many of the trends we have observed during the past 6 months and will continue to see during virtually all of 2009. However I am only expecting a mild up tick in inflation late 2009 due to the deflationary nature of economic contraction.

    Therefore the conclusion is for UK inflation CPI to bottom at just below 1% by July 2009 and RPI inflation to bottom at -1.2% also by July 2009.

    Risks to the Forecast - At this point the risks to the forecasts are more to the downside than the upside, meaning that inflation could spike still lower during mid 2009 than forecast above.

    The Inflation Mega-trend

    The UK Consumer Price Index (NYSEARCA:CPI) clearly illustrates that all we saw from mid 2008 and into early 2009 was a minor deflationary corrective wave amidst an ocean of year on year inflation. Subsequent inflation has far surpassed the in-consequential deflation seen during 2008 and into early 2009. Therefore the facts are completely contrary to the headline grabbing mainstream press and blogosphere scare mongering of price deflation.

    There has been NO SIGNIFICANT DEFLATION, despite economic contraction of more than 5% GDP, despite Unemployment soaring to above 2.5 million, despite asset price destruction ranging from between 25% and 50% into the early 2009 lows. In fact the deflation that we witnessed is probably mostly due to the sharp drop in commodity prices such as Crude Oil's collapse from mid 2008 into early 2009.

    My Inflation Mega-trend scenario analysis continues to conclude towards the Government and the Bank of England as with other central banks around the world mistakenly continuing to be fixated with fighting deflation whilst at the same time stoking the fires for a surge in inflation during 2010.

    UK Retail Sales Signal Debt Fuelled Election Consumer Boom

    The mainstream press and academic economists have been surprised by the most recent headline retail sales data that showed a decline of 0.3% against expectations of rise of 0.4% i.e.

    BBC News 17th December - news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8417860.stm

    UK retail sales fell in November, according to official figures, despite analysts' predictions of a rise.

    The figures came as a surprise to many economists, who had hoped for consumer spending to fuel economic recovery.

    However I recognised the inaccuracy in the published retail sales data many years ago which prompted me to generate my own retail sales data which more accurately reflects the condition of the high street then the official data which typically results in a highly volatile retail sales series which feeds through into yo-yoing mainstream headlines which are in most cases contrary to what is actually taking place on Britians high streets as the below graph more clearly illustrates.

    The adjusted retail sales data clearly shows that UK retail sales act as a leading indicator of economic activity and inflationary pressures of as long as 6 months. Retail sales led the price deflation into mid 2009, and now are again acting as a leading indicator for forward inflation and resurgent economic activity during the first half of 2010. The trend is extremely strong and continues to confirm the analysis of June 2009 that stated that Britain had embarked upon a debt fuelled economic recovery into a May 2010 General Election.

    Very little of this strong retail sales trend is visible in any of the official or academic economic data that continues to look in the rear view mirror of what is "old news". The actual trend shows that the Labour party has succeeded in igniting a debt fuelled election consumer boom that will increasingly become apparent in mainstream press as we approach the May 2010 election deadline, but it is also indicative a steep upward curve in UK inflation and we are talking about inflation hitting the upper end of the Bank of England's 1% to 3% CPI Band during the first half of 2010 which politically suggests the UK General Election may take place much earlier than the consensus view for a May 2010 General Election, perhaps as early as mid February i.e. before the release of January inflation data.

    M4 Money Supply Adjusted for the Velocity of Money

    Whilst the mainstream press have been obsessed by headline M4 data throughout the past 12 months, however as I voiced in last years inflation analysis and forecast that the key to interpreting money supply data is to look at M4 adjusted for the velocity of money that implied imminent extreme deflation that has come to pass -

    UK Money supply M4 (blue) has risen sharply from the 10% targeted low of mid 2008 to the current level of 16.6%, on face value this is highly inflationary and has been taken by many economists and market commentators to suggest much higher forward inflation. However the money supply adjusted for the velocity of money which takes into account the state of the economy as a consequence of the credit freeze tells a completely different story. The UK economy is now in extreme real monetary deflation of approaching -5%. The leading indicator of the implied money supply, is suggesting recent deep interest rate cuts of Novembers 1.5% and Decembers further 1% cut will lift future money supply growth out of extreme deflation, however it will still be far from supporting the levels north of 15% which accurately forecast forward inflation during 2008.

    The M4 Graph shows opposing trends, it shows M4 falling from an extremely high level of near 20% that was jumped on earlier by the press to imply higher inflation, to now nudging below 10% to imply credit contraction deflation. However the real indicator of money supply shows the consequences of Quantitative Easing and near zero interest rates in that Money Supply adjusted for the velocity of money bottomed from a crash into March 2009, and it is only now that the money supply is breaking positive.

    This suggests that the Bank of England and majority of economists remain mistakenly fixated on the headline M4 which has nudged below 10% and therefore continue with the policy of Zero Interest Rates and Quantitative Easing. What is remarkable in the most recent inflation data is the surge higher in both RPI and CPI (1.9%) despite weak money supply data, this strongly supports the view that the UK economy has drifted into a period of stagflation where models based on spare output capacity keeping inflation in check will fail ! I.e. we GET Inflation WITH spare capacity i.e. high unemployment, this is because the government is attempting to fill the output gap by increased public spending which is uncompetitive hence inflationary.

    Therefore the expectations is for UK Money Supply adjusted for the velocity of money to continue surging higher and supportive of a strong trend higher in the RPI and CPI inflation indices that will leave the vast majority of the academic economists still mistakenly fixated on deflation scratching their heads.

    I can easily see MS Implied surging higher to above 10% and M4 Adjusted passing above zero within the first quarter of 2010 on route to pre-credit crash levels during 2010, this also suggests a turnaround to some degree is also imminent in the M4 headline data.

    UK Unemployment

    The UK unemployment forecast as of October 2008 (July 08 data) forecast UK unemployment to hit 2.6 million by April 2010. The actual data to date of 2.49 million to Sept 2009 is inline with this trend, with unemployment benefit claimant count registering a small fall from 1582 to 1569 for November. The moderating unemployment data has surprised academic economists as it is much milder than their economic models suggest it should be by this point. However the data is strongly indicating to me of a strong STEALTH Economic Recovery underway which implies headline data is near an imminent peak and therefore should start to fall early 2010.

    Academic economists have collectively converged during 2009 into the consensus 2009 that UK unemployment would soar to between 3 and 3.2 million by the time of the next general election (May 2010). Now with the slowdown of the unemployment growth in the face of a strong economic turnaround in the fourth quarter these same institutions will be busy revising forecasts for UK unemployment much lower in the coming months.

    European Commission - May 2009 - It expects UK unemployment to rise to 9.4pc by 2010 leaving 3m workers jobless.

    British Chambers of Commerce - April 2009 - Last month, data confirmed that the total number of people out of work surpassed the 2m mark in the three months to January, taking the official unemployment rate to 6.5pc – the highest since 1997. The BCC believes the total could hit 3.2m by the third quarter of next year.

    Bank of England - Blanchflower - April 2009 - Warned unemployment was likely to top 3 million by the end of the year and there was a 'good chance it could go much higher still'.

    CBI - Feb 2009 - The UK’s leading business group predicts the recession, which began in the third quarter of 2008, will last throughout 2009. The economy is expected to contract by 3.3 per cent and unemployment will reach close to 2.9 million by the end of the year.

    I have long questioned the accuracy and validity of the official unemployment data which over several decades and much manipulation by successive governments has been tweaked many hundreds of time to under report true unemployment for political purposes. Current official unemployment stands at 2.49 million for September data release against which the total recorded as economically inactive of working age stands at 7.99 million which in my opinion is reflective of the true rate of unemployment as the below graphs illustrate.

    UK unemployment - July09

    The real unemployment trend clearly shows a sideways trend channel of between 8 million and 7.8 million, Having hit the upper channel it is now strongly suggestive of having peaked and targeting a trend back towards the lower end of the channel i.e. projecting towards a decline of 200,000 during 2010.

    UK Real Unemployed

    In conclusion the headline UK unemployment rate of 2.49 million is just a stone throw away from the 2.6 million target which suggests little upside momentum left in the unemployment data and therefore indicative of an imminent peak and decline unemployment statistics to be announced during Q1 2010, which therefore confirms my view of a much stronger than expected economic recovery and therefore has much higher inflationary implications as well as political implications of improving Labours election prospects.

    Debt Fuelled Economic Recovery Heading for Double Dip Recession?

    UK GDP for the 3rd Quarter was revised marginally higher to minus 0.2% from the earlier ONS estimate of minus 0.3%. The year has witnessed 'think tanks' and academic institutions flailing in all directions as optimistic forecasts of earlier in the year proceeded to be continuously revised lower in terms of economic contraction and then by late summer in advance of third quarter GDP data starting to anticipate an economic recovery in the third quarter with consensus for a 0.3% growth which failed to materialise.

    The GDP trend for the UK economy has been accurately mapped out in the in depth analysis and forecast of 17th February 2009 (UK Recession Watch- Britain's Great Depression?), that both called for severe peak to trough economic contraction of -6.3% at a time when the likes of the UK Treasury were forecasting contraction of less than half at -3%. The analysis also concluded in a strong debt fuelled economic recovery during 2010 to coincide with a summer 2010 General Election. As of the revised ONS GDP data (ABMI Chain linked at Market Prices) total peak to trough contraction is now 6.23% virtually exactly inline with the forecast for -6.3%. Annualised contraction for the third quarter is at -4.56% with trend on target for -4.75% for the fourth quarter.

    The UK economy remains on track to bounce back strongly during 2010, as indicated by June's in depth analysis, however this economic recovery is based largely on debt as shown by the graph below, as the Labour government's strategy is to deliver the next Conservative government a scorched earth economy.

    Alistair Darling's forecast for government net borrowing for 2009 and 2010 in November 2008 totaled just £70 billion. However, since the amount of projected borrowing has mushroomed to £350 billion, which is set against my November forecast of £405 billion for 2009 and 2010 alone, with continuing subsequent large budget deficits thereafter of well above £100 billion a year.

    Whilst many economists were surprised by Alistair Darling's April forecast that the UK Economy would grow by 1.25% in 2010 and 3.5% in 2011. However we need to consider the following in that 1.25% growth on the annual GDP of £1.2 trillion equates to growth of just £15 billion and for 2011; 3.5% growth equates to just £42 billion. Therefore the government is borrowing a net £175 billion for 2009 and £175 billion for 2010 to generate £15 billion of growth, and then a further £140 billion for 2011 for £42 billion of growth. Thus total net borrowing of £490 billion to grow the economy by just £67 billion, (£595 billion my forecast) which shows the magnitude of the scorched earth economic policy now implemented that literally aims to hand the next Conservative government a bankrupted economy that will be lumbered with the consequences of continuing huge budget deficits and therefore deep cuts in public spending.

    Debt and Liabilities

    The total liabilities as a consequence of bailing out the bankrupt banks and debt fuelled economic recovery remains on target of £4.75 trillion by the end of 2013/14, which confirms my view that to cope with the debt burden the bank of England will have to keep monetizing government debt which puts Britain on the path towards many years of stagflation, which my UK GDP forecast will next cover in greater depth.

    Meanwhile the Bank of England remains skeptical of a UK economic recovery during 2010 as the Guardian reports on 23rd December-

    The Bank of England is leaving the door open to a new year £200bn money expansion programme after revealing that it remains unconvinced about the economy's ability to emerge from the deepest and longest recession on record.

    "Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics, said: "We continue to expect interest rates to remain at their current level until the end of 2010, if not considerably longer."

    Whilst I agree that the bank of England will continue to monetize debt, however my economic analysis is concluding towards a strong bounce back and hence the Bank of England's policy of further QE ensures that the inflation flames are being stoked higher, which suggests above trend inflation and growth rates.

    UK Interest Rate Being Kept Artificially Low For Bank Profiteering

    The UK interest rate forecast of early December 2008 for 2009 forecast that UK interest rates should decline to 1% (from 3%) by early 2009 and remain there into the second half of 2009. However following the cut to 0.5% in March 2009, the Bank of England has continued to pursue an artificial banking system by keeping interest rates at an extreme historic low of just 0.5% into the end of 2009 so as to flood the bankrupt banks with liquidity to enable them to rebuild their balance sheets by overcharging customers against the base interest rate and manipulated interbank market rate of 0.66% against rising real market interest rates which have been in a steady climb since March 2009 which increasingly means that the base interest rate has become irrelevant to the retail market place as explained in the article - Bailed Out Banks Not Lending, Sitting on Tax Payers Cash.

    The artificial banking system means that the bill for low interest rates is being paid by Savers who along with all tax payers are being forced to pay for the bankster's crimes as tax payer bailed out banks such as HBOS pay a pittance on instant access savings accounts of as little as 0.1% against a requirement of 2.3% just to cover CPI inflation of 1.9% plus the 20% tax charged on interest.

    Money is being sucked out of the pockets of savers and being deposited onto the balance sheet of bailed out banks that have no incentive to pay a decent rate of interest when they can borrow at 0.5% from the Bank of England and marginally higher from other UK banks. The artificial banking system is resulting in unprecedented huge profit margins for the banks as market interest rates charged to retail customers continue to rise regardless of the base rate being held at 0.5% well into 2010 which is inflationary in terms of rising mortgage and other debt interest costs as these rising costs will show up to varying degrees in the RPI and CPI inflation indices. I will cover the UK interest rate forecast for 2010 in-depth in the coming week.

    UK House Prices Continue 2010 Government Debt Fuelled Election Bounce

    The UK housing market bottomed in March / April 2008 which was recognised in the May analysis and has since continued the debt fuelled bounce as a consequence of money printing and zero interest rates as the Labour government has succeeded in inflation the UK economy out of recession in time for an early 2010 General Election.

    As is the case with virtually all market junctures, back in March if this year the Telegraph and other mainstream media ran with a scare story that UK house prices could crash by a FURTHER 55%, this was after UK house prices had already fallen by 22% and whilst house prices had yet to bottom the Telegraph story at the time seemed to be a completely ridiculous scare mongering purely for the purpose of sensational headline grabbing rather than presenting something that their readership could utilise to their advantage.

    12th March 2009 - Telegraph Runs with Improbable UK House Price Crash Forecast of Another 55%

    The mainstream press as illustrated by The Telegraph has run with a house price forecast by Numis Securities (NYSE:NS) that states that UK house prices could fall by a further whopping 55%, that is a rather incredible forecast to make in light of the of 22% fall to date. NS states that a buy to let investor panic will trigger an avalanche of further selling. I am not aware of Numis Securities past forecasts, however analysis of the perma-bear Capital Economics that has consistently been cropping up with bearish house price forecasts since at least 2002 in the mainstream media illustrated the propensity to reprint press releases with-out checking the facts as to whether the forecast is actually probable or not.

    The Telegraph wrote: House prices 'could fall by further 55 per cent

    "People who bought buy-to-let flats are expected to “begin panic selling” and the average home value could drop below £100,000."

    “Despite UK house prices already having fallen 21% from the peak, we do not believe that the correction is anywhere near over.

    “Our core headline forecast is that UK property prices remain between 17% and 39% overvalued based on fair valuation. Moreover, history has shown us that when property…which has experienced a price bubble corrects, the price tends to fall below fair value for a period of time, as confidence in that market remains low. Prices could fall a further 40-55% if the over-correction was as bad as the early 1990s in our view.”

    Subsequently, UK house prices bottomed in April / May 2009 and have embarked upon a debt fuelled bounce into a May 2010 General Election that has already seen UK house prices RISE by more than 5% from the April / May low rather than to CRASH toward another 55% drop.

    Whilst many are focused on the headline unemployment data, however back in August 2009 in the analysis (UK House Prices Tracking Claimant Count Rather than Unemployment Numbers), the conclusion was that the focus should remain on claimant count rather then the headline unemployment rate, in this regard the claimant count is turning positive in the most recent data and is therefore supportive of a continuation of the trend higher in UK house prices.

    The above chart indicates that there does exist a strong relationship between house price trends and the unemployment benefit claimant count, more so than the unemployment data. The possible reason for this is that those made unemployed that do not claim benefits are not in as financially distressed state than those that have no choice but to claim benefits, therefore house prices can and have risen in the past whilst the official rate of unemployment rose, if at the same time the claimant count did not rise.

    The recent bounce in house prices is tracking quite closely with the stabilisation of the unemployment claimant count numbers, which therefore suggests that as long as those claiming unemployment benefits continues to stabilise at the current level of 1.6 million then the outlook remains positive for UK house prices to continue drifting higher, this is despite official unemployment data that looks set to continue to rise towards 3 million from 2.43 million.

    My on going research suggests that the debt fuelled economic recovery is expected to continue into mid 2010 that could see house prices up by as much as 10% year on year and therefore contrary to the widespread view of flat house prices during 2010, however this warrants in depth analysis to formulate a higher probability forecast which I aim to complete during January 2010.

    In conclusion the trend of inflating UK house prices into mid 2010 is supportive of the trend of inflating general prices that will play catch up during early 2010 and continue upward into the second half of 2010 due to increased consumer spending as a consequence of some of the return of the feel good factor amongst consumers.

    UK Producer Prices

    Producer Input and Output prices bottomed in June 2009 and have bounced strongly from deflation back into inflation. The trends again act as a leading indicator for consumer prices that lag by a couple of months or so. The momentum behind the recovery in producer prices is suggestive of a trend towards extremes in the coming months i.e. PPI Output to above 10% and PPI Input to more than 5%, both of which suggest that the imminent spike higher to follow in retail and consumer prices towards the upper bands will be sustained into at least mid 2010.

    Stocks Bull Market Signaling Strong Economy

    The stocks stealth bull market of 2009 has been one of the greatest bull market rallies in history and for its duration has been explained away by academic analysts as an aberration, a bear market rally who's demise was always imminent that illustrates the difference between theory produced in ivory towers for the primary purpose of gaining letters after ones name than to actually attempt to monetize on probable trends as the consequences of being wrong for the latter is loss of real money. The fact is simple, the stocks bull market of 2009 is by far the strongest indicator of a strong economic recovery than anything seen in any economic data that academic economists and even many market analysts / mainstream press commentators pursue with a vigour whilst ignoring the biggest indicator of all that is staring them right in the face. The birth of the bull market right from early March has increasingly indicated to me that we are heading for much stronger economic activity during 2010 and therefore much higher inflation.

    British Pound to Wobble Lower During 2010

    The existing U.S. Dollar bull market scenario analysis calls for the Dollar to rally towards a target of 84, with the initial buy trigger of 77.00 achieved during the past few days this now sets the scene for sterling weakness against the Dollar, which has already seen the GBP nose dive from £/$1.68 to below £/$1.60. A U.S. Dollar index rally to 84 would coincide with a drop in sterling to below £/$ 1.50, therefore presents a bearish starting point for chart analysis.

    Two items stand out from the GBP chart:

    1. That sterling is targeting immediate support at £/$1.57 which implies it may temporarily bounce from there back through £/$1.60 before the eventual break.

    2. That a break below £/$1.57 would target a trend to below £/$1.40.

    On a longer term view, the chart is indicative of trading range between £/$1.57 and £/$1.37, on anticipation of the eventual break of £/$1.57. On average this implies a 10% sterling deprecation against the trend of the preceding 6 months or so. I expect sterling to fall against other major currencies such as the Euro where it targets a drop of 10% or so from the current 1.12.

    What could drive sterling lower during 2010 apart form Dollar strength ?

    The obvious thing that comes to mind is the Bank of England keeping UK base interest rates artificially low (UK interest rate forecast for 2010 will follow in the coming week- newsletter) whilst the economy recovers, inflation rises and the trade gap widens, therefore this WILL impact on the currency and result in relative weakness as commodities such as crude oil are priced in dollars and thus will result in an inflationary feed back loop. Neither is the currency helped by open ended money printing to monetize the huge amount of government debt issuance as a consequence of a 12%+ budget deficit.

    Conclusion and UK Inflation Forecast 2010

    The sum of the above and recent analysis is for UK inflation to spike higher in the coming months during early 2010. This is inline with my view that the Labour government has succeeded in sparking a strong debt fuelled economic recovery that will become clearly visible during the first quarter of 2010. I expect UK inflation as measured by CPI to break above the Bank of England's upper CPI target of 3% very early in the year, and stay above  3% for most of the year only coming back below 3% late 2010 as a consequence of the next governments attempts to bring the unsustainable budget deficit under control.

    My next analysis in this series will cover the UK economy and then UK interest rate projections for 2010 all of which will culminate in the Inflation Mega-trend ebook that I intend on completing and make available for free within the next 2 weeks. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get this analysis that money cannot buy in your email in box.

    Risks to the Inflation Forecast

    The obvious risk is of the collapse of another major financial institution triggering a deflationary financial armageddon, though the risks of this are now infinitely smaller for 2010 then they were in the lead up to the Lehman Bankruptcy. The real risk is of countries imploding but whilst this would hit the economies however the consequences of imploding countries is inflationary rather than deflationary as panicking governments with citizens rioting in the streets tend to ramp up the printing presses to full steam and similarly induce a collective panic amongst other central bankster's to do likewise, therefore this suggests to me that the actual risk to the forecast is more to the upside then the downside, though yes government debt defaults will not look pretty in the financial markets which like 2008 would induce extreme market volatility.

    Implications of the Inflationary Surge

    Greater depth and scope of implications will be covered in the Free Ebook that I aim to complete by the end of December. (free newsletter)

    UK General Election 2010 - Expect the public and press to be surprised during the next few months as the UK economy bounces back strongly in the first quarter. For all of Gordon Browns many faults, and whether or not he actually wins what is likely is a much tighter election campaign as the polls narrow, Gordon Brown HAS succeeded in delivering a Strong Election Bounce for the Labour party into mid 2010. I will have to probably revise my UK election forecast as of June 2009 during January 2010 that projected Conservatives on 343 seats, Labour 225 and Lib Dems on 40.

    Inflation / Deflation Debate - I increasingly recognised the imminent return of Inflation by mid November 2009 that resulted in the article Deflationists Are WRONG, Prepare for the INFLATION Mega-Trend. I expect so will many presently fence sitting analysts and economists during early 2010 in the face of visibly rising inflation in the various inflation indices across the world, which only leaves the perma-deflationist behind who will continue to mistakenly cling on to a non existant deflationary argument as a consequence of the deleveraging deflationary corrective wave of 2008 into early 2009 amidst an ocean of inflation as my earlier article illustrated.

    UK Interest Rates - Will the Bank of England be able to keep UK interest rates artificially low during 2010 ? More on this in the coming week in my UK interest rate forecast, but what I will say is that the market interest rates WILL continue to rise, so good news for savers, but bad news for borrowers.

    UK Government Bonds - 2010 will be the year Quantitative Easing debt monetization does Battle with the forces of Rising Inflation and Market Interest Rates, the crunch point will culminate in a sharp drop in sterling (10%) as the market wins as bond Investors demand higher yields for UK Junk Government Bonds.

    Stock Market - Will the stealth bull market continue during 2010 ? I don't see why not, at least into mid 2010 but this does demand in-depth analysis that will follow during January as the deliciously and excruciatingly impressive 60% gains off of the March lows on face value imply 2010 will not be such an easy free central bank liquidity driven lunch for stocks bull market trend monetizing investors as inept central bankers increasingly start to hit the panic buttons in the face of rising inflation.

    Source and Add Comments Here - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16085.html

    By Nadeem Walayat
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

    Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

    Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 500 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

    Nadeem Walayat Archive


    Disclosure: none
    Tags: CPI, UK inflation
    Dec 28 6:53 PM | Link | Comment!
  • 2009 The Year of the Stocks Stealth Bull Market
    For stock market Investors and traders there were two key events during the year.

     

    1. The Stocks Bear Market Bottom of early March 2009 (Dow 6470).

    2. The birth of the Stocks Stealth Bull Market that saw many indices soar by more than 60% over the next 9 months.

    The primary purpose of analysis is to generate market scenario's that have a high probability of success for the primary purpose of monetizing on these trends that are usually contrary to the consensus view.

    In this regard the stock market bottom of early March fulfills this as the whole subsequent rally has been called by the vast majority of analysts across the board a bear market rally to SELL into, virtually every correction has been followed by calls that the market has topped and the resumption of bear market lows as imminent. The most notable crescendo of the crash is coming calls was during the October correction when widespread commentary spread forth of an imminent crash that AGAIN FAILED to materialise.

    The purpose of this article in advance of ongoing work on the formation of a stock market scenario for 2010 is to recap on my key analysis and projections for the stocks stealth bull market during 2009.

    Dow Jones Stock Market Forecast 2009 - 20th Jan 2009

    Dow Jones Mid 2009 Low 6600 - 70% Confidence; End 2009 at 8,600 (During December 2009) - 65% Confidence

     

    Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470 - 14th March 2009

    Now watch ! How this STEALTH bull market will consistently be recognised as just a bear market rally to sell into and NOT to accumulate into. All the way from 6,600 to 7,600 to 8,600 and even beyond, the move will be missed by most as consistently bearish rhetoric and data will ensure only the smart money accumulates, for the small investor has now become Conditioned to the Bear Market Rallies of 20% and subsequently plunges to fresh lows. Many, many months from now, with stocks up 30%, investors will then WAIT for THE BIG CORRECTION, THE RE-TEST to buy into the apparent BULL Market , Well these investors will still be waiting as stocks pass the 50% advance mark, AGAIN only those that will have profited are the hedge funds and fund investors (Smart Money) WHO HAVE BEEN ACCUMULATING , as I elaborate upon next.

    In Summary - We have in all probability seen THE stocks bear market bottom at 6470, which is evident in the fact that few are taking the current rally seriously instead viewing it as an opportunity to SELL INTO , Which is exactly what the market manipulators and smart money desires. They do not want the small investors carrying heavy losses of the past 18 months to accumulate here, No they want the not so smart money to SELL into the rally so that more can accumulated at near rock bottom prices! Therefore watch for much more continuous commentary of HOW this is BEAR MARKET RALLY THAT IS TO BE SOLD INTO as the Stealth Bull Market gathers steam.

    Stealth Stocks Bull Market, Sell in May and Go Away? - 26th April 2009

    Conclusion - Immediate term conflicting analysis, will there be a continuing rally into early May or not ? Clearly early week will be weak and a lot now depends on whether the support of 7,800 holds, the 280 point gap between the last close and support should give the market plenty of swine flu room to breath, it is a tough call but after that early week wobble, I would go with a continuation into early May to set up for the main move which is for the significant correction that targets a decline of about 14% or Dow 7,500 from 8750. If 7800 fails early week that implies Dow 7,100. So just as the herd is starting to pile in the smart money will be positioning for a significant correction and importantly the move will be TRADEABLE, none of these 1 or 2 day falls that have suckered the bears in during the rally, but for a sustained down trend though swine flu may bring this forward to the start of the week. Note this is an interim update, my in depth analysis will attempt to more accurately map out the Dow swings of several months so make sure your subscribed to my always FREE newsletter to get this on the day of publication.

    Vicious Stocks Stealth Bull Market Eats the Bears Alive!, What's Next? - 23rd July 2009

    CONCLUSION - My earlier fears about a bull trap appear to be unfounded, the stock chart is talking that we are in a stocks bull market, and is suggestive of a trend higher towards a 2009 target of between 9750 and 10,000, with a high probability that we may get there before the end of October!. Key danger areas for this scenario are a. for the trend line to contain corrections, and b. that 8080, MUST HOLD.

    The Crumbliest Flakiest Stocks Bull Market Never Tasted Before - 7th Sept 09

    The target for the termination of the current phase of the bull market rally was between 9750 and 10,000. As mentioned above, I am not expecting an easy ride for the fifth wave as clearly it is an obvious pattern to interpret following waves 1,2,3,4. What does this mean ? Well wave 3 is screaming weakness, so that suggests a weak push higher rather than something that resembles wave 1.

    Stocks Bull Market Correction Continues, U.S. Dollar Bears Running Out of Time? - 4th Oct 09

    Stocks Bull Market Forecast Update Into Year End - 2nd Nov 09

    There is nothing to suggest at this point in time that the stocks bull market is over which means that that corrections are for accumulating into, the overall trend is for stocks is to continue climbing a wall of worry whilst investors are scared by the vocal crash is coming crowd that will continue to re-write history to always be right in hindsight to again come out with more crash calls over the next few months as the Dow chart of the 1930's gets it's start / end date manipulated again so as to fit fresh crash calls.

    The stocks bull market that has raged since the March low has fulfilled the original objective for a 50% advance, therefore upside for the next two months looks limited with greater risk of downside in the coming weeks though pending a break of the major support trendline which implies a rally in the immediate future. All in all this is suggestive of a downtrend towards 9,400 into Mid November with a year end rally to back above 10,000 targeting a rally high in the region of 10,350 to 10,500 during December.

    Stock Market Santa Rally and Election Weapons of Mass Deception - 13th Dec 09

    My concluding thought, we get the santa rally to a new 2009 high for the Dow into the last few days of December and then the market starts the significant correction, and I'll try and get my forecast for 2010 completed before it begins!

    As for where I think the stock market is headed during 2010?

    The analysis is underway and will culminate in final conclusions / forecast trends in the following sequence - Inflation, economy, interest rates, housing, stocks, other markets. To ensure you get analysis that money cannot buy, subscribe to my always FREE newsletter.

    Source : http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16062.html

    By Nadeem Walayat
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

    Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

    Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 500 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

    Nadeem Walayat Archive


    Disclosure: none
    Tags: stock market
    Dec 26 12:06 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Illusion of Price Deflation
    This analysis seeks to get to the heart of the matter to answer the question - Have we experienced Deflation and IF we have are we still in Deflation Now ?

     

    This is the next in a series of articles as part of my unfolding inflationary mega-trend scenario that is an important stepping stone towards the formulation of a inflation forecast for 2010 and beyond. I am to complete the whole scenario and implications of before the end of December which will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the latest analysis in your email box and check my most recent analysis on the probable inflation mega-trend at http://www.walayatstreet.com

    What is Deflation ?

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation

    In economics, deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services.[1] Deflation occurs when the annual inflation rate falls below zero percent (a negative inflation rate), resulting in an increase in the real value of money – allowing one to buy more goods with the same amount of money. This should not be confused with disinflation, a slow-down in the inflation rate (i.e. when inflation decreases, but still remains positive).[2] As inflation reduces the real value of money over time, conversely, deflation increases the real value of money – the functional currency (and monetary unit of account) in a national or regional economy.

    www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deflation.asp

    A general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit. Deflation can be caused also by a decrease in government, personal or investment spending. The opposite of inflation, deflation has the side effect of increased unemployment since there is a lower level of demand in the economy, which can lead to an economic depression. Central banks attempt to stop severe deflation, along with severe inflation, in an attempt to keep the excessive drop in prices to a minimum.
     

    Deflation is the decrease of general prices in an economy. The most widely recognised measure of which is the Consumer Price Index (NYSEARCA:CPI), the composition of which aims to standardise the measure of prices of economies across the world to enable easier comparative analysis.

    Unfortunately many analysts mistakenly pick and choose alternative measures against which to support their own point of views at a particular point of time. This pick and mix attitude to analysis is not just limited to deflationists, but inflationists also have been seen to seek propaganda over facts. Inflation or Deflation is not measured by comparing one asset value against another i.e. Comparing Gold Prices against House Prices. Whilst they may form PART of a deflationary or inflationary scenario, they ARE NOT AT THE CORE of Inflation or Deflation, so such arguments as if they represent Inflation or Deflation are NOT analysis but rather PROPOGANDA.

    Now, whilst my Inflation mega-trend analysis is primarily focused on the UK economy for obvious reasons as that is where i reside, however the same could apply to the United States and most other Western developed economies.

    UK Consumer Price Index (CPI)

    The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) clearly illustrates that all we saw from mid 2008 and into early 2009 was a minor deflationary corrective wave amidst an ocean of year on year inflation. Subsequent inflation has far surpassed the in-consequential deflation seen during 2008 and into early 2009. Therefore the facts are completely contrary to the headline grabbing mainstream press and blogosphere scare mongering of price deflation.

    There has been NO SIGNIFINCANT DEFLATION, despite economic contraction of more than 5% GDP, despite Unemployment soaring to above 2.5 million, despite asset price destruction ranging from between 25% and 50% into the early 2009 lows. In fact the deflation that we witnessed is probably mostly due to the sharp drop in commodity prices such as Crude Oil's collapse from mid 2008 into early 2009.

    What does this suggest?

    It suggests that severe economic contraction, debt deleveraging and asset price destruction only succeeded in generating a minor corrective wave against the inflationary mega-trend, which therefore looks set to return with a vengeance over the coming years which my Inflation Mega-trend scenario analysis continues to conclude towards as the Government and the Bank of England as with other central banks is mistakenly continuing to be fixated with fighting deflation.

    UK Retail Prices Index (NYSEMKT:RPI)

    Whilst the CPI is the governments preferred measure of UK inflation i.e. because it is less volatile then its predecessor the RPI index, which is the more recognised measure of UK inflation by the people of Britain as it pre-dates the CPI by many decades.

    The above graph shows that the RPI has experienced stronger deflation than that seen in CPI. However this is due to government intervention, specifically in forcing UK interest rates down to an artificially low rate of 0.5%, coupled with funneling near unlimited tax payer cash to the bailed out banks by means of quantitative easing, capital injections and bad debt loan insurance has created an artificial banking system that generates huge unprecedented profit margins for the banking industry for the purpose of the banks to rebuild their balance sheets, though as we have seen with bank bonuses this is not what the bankster's are actually doing instead choosing to pay out artificial profits as bonuses, which is tantamount to more fraud on the tax payer.

    Basically the artificial banking system has forced mortgage costs artificially lower to enable the bankrupt bailed out zombie banks to survive, and it is this which is reflected in the RPI Index, accounting for much of the extended downtrend into early 2009 coinciding with the low in UK interest rates of 0.5% and the start of the bounce in UK house prices.

    The subsequent trend looks set to complete the process of retracing the whole of the deflationary downdraft during the coming months as the RPI also confirms that the deflation of 2008-2009 was just a corrective wave amidst an ocean of inflation.

    My UK inflation forecast for 2010 and beyond will be completed during the coming week which will aim to project the likely trend for both UK CPI and RPI, ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get this in your email box.

    UK Inflation Forecast 2009

    The Inflation mega-trend scenario is now starting to manifest itself in UK Inflation data for November which shows the Governments preferred measure CPI inflation surging higher to 1.9% up from 1.5% and RPI reversing October Deflation of -0.8% to now stand at Inflation of +0.3%.

    Deflationary forces as a consequence of the the bursting of the asset bubbles has fulfilled the deflation forecast for 2009 as per the original analysis of December 2008 - UK CPI Inflation, RPI Deflation Forecast 2009 that forecast RPI Deflation into Mid 2009 targeting -1.2% and CPI Inflation of +0.9% to be followed by an uptrend into year end back into RPI inflation of +0.9% and CPI of +1.6% as illustrated by the below graph.

    U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

    Just to make sure that the UK economy is not experiencing a case of freakanomics, here is the CPI inflation graph for the United States of the past 10 years.

    Leaving aside the conspiracy theorists that say that real U.S. Inflation is at 7% rather than that of official data, U.S. CPI Inflation has followed a similar trend to UK RPI Inflation in that real deflation from mid 2008 into early 2009 has subsequently reverted back to the long-term inflationary trend. The U.S. CPI deflationary corrective wave was due to the exact same influences as that witnessed in UK RPI i.e. housing bear market and the commodity price crash (primarily crude oil).

    However the graph does not support the deflationist argument that has in some cases been in existence for more than 10 years with a cluster following the dot com bubble bursting, following which time inflation has continued to erode the value of money at trend.

    I need to remind readers again that the inflationary uptrend from early 2009 has been during a period of severe economic contraction and weak recovery, if we were in a deflationary environment then U.S. CPI should be either declining or flat-lining. Which suggests that if the U.S. Economy stagnates then the INFLATION trend will continue upwards, however should the U.S. economy surprise to the upside then the Inflation trend will accelerate even higher, either way there is NO DEFLATION at the present nor in the coming years which just leaves me shaking my head at Deflationists that continue conjuring deflationary outlooks that have little if any basis in the actual data.

    Japan Deflation?

    The only major economy that is said to have experienced general price deflation is Japan, but even there when we take a close look at this so called Japanese price deflation all I see is overall FLAT general prices i.e. neither inflation nor deflation. Therefore a worst case scenario for the Inflationary mega-trend would be along the lines of Japanese style outcome of flat prices over the next decade rather than REAL deflation.

    The Illusion of Deflation

    The corrective deflationary wave has suckered many, many analysts and perma academic economists into the deflation argument, perhaps rather than harking back to 1930's deflation the deflationists need to take a step back and look at big picture of the inflationary mega-trend. This is NOT the 1930's, unlike the 1930's the bankrupt banks are not being allowed to go bankrupt. Instead governments are hell bent on inflating their way out of the crisis which means even higher inflation, more so than trend inflation.

    The flaw in the deflationists argument is staring them right in the face, in that during the 1930's the academic economists looked to the series of economic crisis following the Great War, and therefore their proposed actions resulted in the deflation of the 1930's. Whereas today's academic economists look to the 1930's as though it is a caste in stone road map of what is to follow, whereas it is the same academic economists that are feeding input into Governments of Deflation that surely will result in the contrary outcome, just as the deflation of the 1930's was contrary to the high inflation of the early 1920's.

    In Britain at the time of writing the National Audit Office has declared that the British tax payer has assumed a liability of £850 billion as a consequence of bailing out the bankrupt banks. When a country effectively doubles its national debt within a year is that the sign of Deflation or nearer Zimbabwe style inflation? No i am not saying Britain is heading for hyper inflation but the trend is strongly in favour of inflation much more so than the illusory Deflation trend that is taken as fact when it only really exists in the ivory tower of academics.

    The Markets Discount the Future

    Whilst debt deleveraging continues in the present, however market participants should be reminded of the fact that the market discounts the future and not past or present!, Therefore the whole debt deleveraging scenario should be IGNORED, much as I voiced in March 2009 that the whole scenario of contracting corporate earnings should be IGNORED, in that is not what the market will discount next, In March my view was that stocks will discount a flood of liquidity and economic recovery ( 15th Mar 2009 - Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470) and has subsequently soared by as much as 60% during 2009. Now my analysis continues to converge towards the inflation mega-trend which the market will again start to discount well in advance of.

    UK Interest Rates & Economy

    The UK base interest rate is being kept artificially low so as to enable the bankrupt banks to rebuild their balance sheets by overcharging customers against the base interest rate and the interbank market rate of 0.59% as the real market interest rates have been in a steady climb since March 2009 which has increasingly meant that the base interest rate has become irrelevant to the retail market place as explained in the article - Bailed Out Banks Not Lending, Sitting on Tax Payers Cash.

    The outlook remains for rising market interest rates charged to retail customers regardless of the base rate having been held at 0.5% into the end of the year, which is inflationary in terms of rising mortgage costs.

    Savers Forced to Pay for Bankster Crimes

    Savers are being hit by the double whammy of 1.9% Inflation plus the 20% tax on savings and therefore require a minimum interest rate in the order of 2.30% just for savings to keep pace with inflation and taxes. This is set against the tax payer bailed out banks such as the Halifax paying a pittance of just 0.1% on across the range accounts from current accounts to savings accounts with other mainstream institutions not far better, which is a consequence of bailout out the bankrupt banks that has resulted in an artificial market heavily skewed in favour of the bailed out bankrupt banks making huge profits so that tax payer capital injections can be repaid, in-effect the government giving free cash to the banks to enable the banks to repay capital for political reasons. In effect the Banks and the Labour Government are systematically stealing the value of Savings.

    The situation is even worse for Cash ISA holders as the tax payer bailed out bankster's hit new depths of paying ISA holders typically 20% LESS than comparable accounts, therefore are defrauding Cash ISA holders of their tax free allowances.

    Under a free market system the banks would be forced to raise interest rates paid to customers to entice savers, however in today's market the Treasury and the Bank of England fund the banks to the tune of liabilities of £1.5 trillion that has resulted in the countries liabilities doubling from £1.7 trillion at the end of 2007 to £3.4 trillion by the end of this year on route towards liabilities of £4.75 trillion.

    Debt Fuelled Economic Recovery Heading for Double Dip Recession

    The UK economy remains on track to bounce back into the 2010 election, as indicated by June's in depth analysis, however this economic recovery is based purely on debt as shown by the graph below, as the Labour government's strategy is to deliver the next Conservative government a scorched earth economy.

    Alistair Darling's forecast for government net borrowing for 2009 and 2010 in November 2008 totaled just £70 billion. However, since the amount of projected borrowing has mushroomed to £350 billion, which is set against my November forecast of £405 billion for 2009 and 2010 alone, with continuing subsequent large budget deficits thereafter of well above £100 billion a year.

    Whilst many economists were surprised by Alistair Darling's April forecast that the UK Economy would grow by 1.25% in 2010 and 3.5% in 2011. However we need to consider the following in that 1.25% growth on the annual GDP of £1.2 trillion equates to growth of just £15 billion and for 2011; 3.5% growth equates to just £42 billion. Therefore the government is borrowing a net £175 billion for 2009 and £175 billion for 2010 to generate £15 billion of growth, and then a further £140 billion for 2011 for £42 billion of growth. Thus total net borrowing of £490 billion to grow the economy by just £67 billion, (£595 billion my forecast) which shows the magnitude of the scorched earth economic policy now implemented that literally aims to hand the next Conservative government a bankrupted economy that will be lumbered with the consequences of continuing huge budget deficits and therefore necessary deep cuts in public spending.

    Whilst the OECD and other mainstream organisations / press have been busy in recent months revising their economic forecasts, my forecast remains as is and continues to project towards post general election tax hikes and deep public spending cuts that will in my opinion trigger a double dip RECESSION during 2011 to 2012 as illustrated by the graph below.

    Bankrupting Britain Debt and Liabilities

    The total liabilities as a consequence of bailing out the bankrupt banks and debt fuelled economic recovery remains on target of £4.75 trillion by the end of 2013/14, which confirms that Britain remains firmly on the path of a probable decade of economic stagnation coupled with high inflation i.e. stagflation.

    For more on my inflationary mega-trend ensure your subscribed to my always free newsletter, especially as I converge towards including major forecasts for all key markets for 2010. I.e. what will become of the stocks stealth bull market that has soared during 2009 ? What about the debt fuelled UK housing market and economic bounce.

    Are GLD and SLV ETF's Good Proxies for Gold and Silver Bullion Investing?

    My recent analysis on Natural Gas and UNG ETF (22 Nov 2009 - Natural Gas Screaming Long-term Inflation Mega-trend Buy, But UNG...) concluded:

    The second chart illustrates that there exists a perpetual tendency for the ETF to under perform the futures over time, which deploys a similar trick to the Leveraged ETF's in utilising % of daily movements. What this means is that UNG IS NOT A GOOD LONG-TERM INVESTMENT ! If you invest in UNG, you have to get your timing right, else TIME will erode the value of your investment even if Natural Gas DOUBLES in price! However on top of this we have PROFITS which are SKIMMED from investors as indicated by UNG that FAILS to rise when the Natural Gas price goes up!

    This analysis continues the study of the price trend relationship between Gold : GLD and Silver : SLV as part of the inflationary mega-trend investing as the following graphs illustrate:

    Both graphs show that during the past 3 years and at the present time, the spot prices of Gold and Silver are highly correlated in terms of trend with their GLD and SLV ETF equivalents for a similar period of time.

    ETF Expenses

    Investors should note that both GLD and SLV ETF's deduct annual expense ratio's of 0.4% for GLD and 0.5% for SLV which over time will erode the value of the funds and result in a significant discount to the spot price for investments spanning several decades, though it should also be noted that the expense ratios compare favourably to the fees charged for bullion storage that can amount to more than 1% per annum. For instance Gold is up approx 20% over the past 12 months, against the expense ratio of 0.4%, therefore is not of any real significance for medium term investments (upto 5 years).

    ETF Risks

    I understand that a number of rumours are doing the rounds during the past few weeks of potentially 1.4 million fake tungsten gold bars in existence, of which many form part of the GLD ETF holding.

    However the GOLD:GLD price trend relationship suggests that there is no substance to these rumour's for if these rumours were true then GLD would be trading at a significant discount to the spot Gold price. Though that it is not to say that some future event may bring about such a large discount.

    Leaving aside the risk of fake gold, there is also the risk of that during a currency crisis the U.S. Government seizing the Gold held in New York, maybe if it were disbursed across several vaults in several countries this would ensure greater security. Other risks exist as with all ETF's i.e. that of the risk of theft and fraud.

    Though as I have pointed out earlier, if in the future a problem with the GLD and SLV did start to occur, we would see it manifest itself in the spread between GLD and Gold, as the smart money would start to exit the fund first.

    Recent articles on the unfolding inflationary MEGA-TREND outlook include :

    Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15836.html

    By Nadeem Walayat
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

    Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

    Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 400 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

    Nadeem Walayat Archive


    Disclosure: none
    Dec 17 1:18 PM | Link | Comment!
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