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Nat Stewart

 
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  • The Bull Trap That Is Philip Morris International [View article]
    Interesting observation. I live near a rehab facility. One thing I notice is that when the rehab population is out on the street in crowds on "break" or whatever, every single one of them is smoking a cigarette, without fail. It is a dense cloud of cigarette smoke.
    Sep 19 04:27 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking Stock Quotes Regularly Is A Waste Of Time [View article]
    Come to Chicago and I will introduce you to plenty of real "day traders". Some individual operators and some with businesses structured like high technology firms (which they are). You don't know of day traders like the names you mentioned because the ideas don't scale well at that size - Day trading strategies are niches that do not require and can't use large amounts of capital - however can get a very high ROI on the capital that they do deploy. Has zero to do with investing. Day trading firms typically only use internal capital with no clients because there is no reason to share the profits as they are finite and limited and the ROI and consistency are very high.
    Sep 16 09:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking Stock Quotes Regularly Is A Waste Of Time [View article]
    Its a great strategy for non-taxable or tax-deferred portfolios. Glad to hear it is working for u.
    Sep 15 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking Stock Quotes Regularly Is A Waste Of Time [View article]
    The ability to profit from price fluctuations is actually much greater than u seem to realize. The issue is that the only way it works is when u are trading against others who are making mistakes, typically do to over-reaction. This means it is a limited opportunity and also that to do it well it takes quite a bit of study to identify consistently. In my opinion a trader who is well grounded in long term fundamentals is in a good position to select a pool of stocks to buy when the crowd for whatever reason drives price down quickly on flim-flam news of little long term significance. The expected value after such occurrences can be very high over the next few days to few weeks.
    Sep 15 08:16 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking About The Cost Of College [View article]
    There is some truth to your point. Much of the difference in outcomes is do to the fact that college acts as a filter or screen for intelligence and work ethic.

    But the thing is, that does have significant value.

    Employers, particularly elite employers, use college attended as a filter or screen. If one (say) has an IQ of 130+, going to an elite school is going to open doors and make life easier, on average, than an individual with a similar aptitude that tries it on their own.


    That second person is going to have much more variability in their outcome (perhaps a big entrepreneurial hit, but also perhaps chronically under-employed relative to aptitude) as they don't get in the "foot in the door" at prestigious firms and are not viewed as socially elite (unless they are one of the few who create a massive success on their own, like a tech CEO, etc.).
    Sep 13 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish On National Beverage [View article]
    Thanks for commenting Batman
    Sep 13 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mesabi Trust: Cliffs Natural Resources' Q3 Conference Call Has Big Implications [View article]
    Plazmo, Look at a 1 year or multi-year chart of the stock. The volatility you are talking about is really not all that unusual. Just visually in the last year or so I see late OCT 2013, Mid Jan 2014, Late March/early April 2014, and early June 2014 as times that experienced relatively similar upwards volatility.

    If u are thinking it as a potential seasonal trading opportunity, the stock has (using dividend adjusted data) exhibited a relatively stable seasonal pattern since 1987, as I documented in this study: http://bit.ly/1qwjj3w

    Unless one has good info to trade on (Such as what James presented in a previous article), which had excellent info not factored into the stock price at that time) in my opinion investors are better off just holding and re-investing dividends.

    The problem with seasonal tendencies is that the more people are aware of them and act on them, the more likely they are to stop working - especially in a relatively thinly traded stock like this.
    Sep 13 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish On National Beverage [View article]
    U ask two questions. I ask one more: When will one of the big boys realize that they might be able to acquire LaCroix, get the market leading position plus a terrific product pipeline, plug it into their massive distribution and marketing systems, all while "taking out" a key competitor? Would accomplish much more than developing or attempting to "bulk up" a brand internally, IMO.
    Sep 11 06:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish On National Beverage [View article]
    Got my annual report in the mail - it contains images of a stunning new LaCroix product and an all new natural Shasta.

    The LaCroix La-Cola looks like a Diet Cola killer to me! The option value created by the potential for a large distribution deal or a total sale of the key brands is going up. Can't wait to see the new product in the stores!!
    Sep 11 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish On National Beverage [View article]
    Earnings up 27% year over year and very positive comments from the CEO. Have also been told that Scanner data once again shows LaCroix volume up 40%.

    I particularly Liked this statement in the press release:

    "Our total focus is to lead the way to more healthy, more ‘Innocent,' more refreshing and optically, more entertaining contentment for our consumers! We are nearing another milestone in the evolution of our concept of brand theming; launching a true innovation by LaCroix."

    I think the above paragraph expresses a deeper, more precise vision than we have seen before with regards to the company's strategic direction and focus.
    In the past year LaCroix has already released a bunch of new flavors as well as the Curate variety in multiple flavors.

    I have already reported that other flavors and varieties have been in development - they have put the petal to the floor on product development and innovation - can't wait to see what "evolution" comes next!
    Sep 10 10:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop Using Stops! [View article]
    Stop-loss orders create my favorite time to buy. So for that I thank the users of this "strategy".
    Sep 9 04:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Who's Consuming All Those Shakes? And Why... [View article]
    Exactly.
    Sep 9 11:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Who's Consuming All Those Shakes? And Why... [View article]
    "...nobody who buys a lottery ticket thinks the odds are in their favor."

    This is not true. I had the good fortune of working a part-time job at a deli-convenience store while in college and learned many useful things about the bottom 50%, and particularly about the bottom 20%, or underclass.

    One of which is that the concept of mathematical probability or "odds" is completely incomprehensible to a large segment of the population. It might seem see strange to people here, but many people are literally not capable of understanding why lottery tickets are a bad value. If u try to "help" by explaining it they look at you like you are from mars.

    Sep 9 11:04 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HC2's Deal Making Offers Significant Upside [View article]
    Good article. It seems like HCHC has a big incentive to get the deal done in a timely way - and of course other SHFK shareholders who are paying attention see that, and would like to capture a bit of the premium before moving on. It might be interesting to attempt to figure out the remaining shareholder composition of SHFK. If enough are going to stand pat for a higher price it seems SHFK might itself be a nice risk/reward situation. I really liked your ALJJ article, nice job on that one.
    Sep 4 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish On National Beverage [View article]
    Turb0kat, I agree. Thanks for commenting.
    Sep 4 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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