National Beverage Is Priced To Deliver Excellent Shareholder Returns [View article]
Hi all, thanks for commenting. Mr. Lott, yes, the majority shareholder is firmly in charge of this company - and in this case I think that is a good thing. Ron, I agree. My family is a big fan of the La Croix product. It is a very refreshing beverage, the bright packaging really stands out and makes a statement, and I now find it in every store my family frequents. It is already the leader in its niche and I think (along with the other power-brand products) has enormous potential. I think good things are in store for this product line.
Beware Of These Upcoming Seasonal Patterns In Treasury Bonds And Gasoline [View article]
Hi Frank, I think so. For what its worth, my simulation indicates that mid dec. to early april has been a bearish period since the various QE programs started.
Doubling The Return Of The S&P 500 Over 20 Years [View article]
I would like to see a low volatility product that controlled for sector exposure, which I think would create better diversification while still being true to the concept.
Also, one thing I note when looking at the low vol. index vs. the SP500 is that such an approach would have been laughed at for what looks like all of the mid to late 90's. I am not saying this as criticism, more a reflection of human nature. The fact is most investors (had there been such a product in the 90's) would have been dying to sell and get into a high vol. fund. Now of course, after a very volatile period with poor returns, low vol approaches look golden.
More Proof That Share Buybacks Do Not Add Value [View article]
I can't think of a single corporate action that inherently adds value. Like with almost anything it is a matter of price, execution, and the underlying quality of the business. It is in analyzing these things where an investor can develop a specific edge.
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
rnsmth, that burger sounds delicious. When I eat one at home I drink a glad of red wine with mine too. As I learned to say from my dad, "It cuts the fat" ha ha.
Sense And Nonsense About Climate Change. What Do Investors Need To Know? [View article]
Environmental policy can be sold to conservatives (myself being one) by focusing on the "tragedy of the commons" issue.
One of the problems with socialism is that there is often a lack of individual accountability or ownership. Some environmental issues suffer from this same problem. For example we all benefit from clean water and clean air, but who is accountable for ensuring that it stays clean?
If I was attempting to sell conservatives on an environmental policy, I would use this angle - I would not attempt to sell them on the non-falsifiable theory of climate change.
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
McDonalds is a great company that has done a good job evolving with the times. In my opinion they are just getting started.
One thing I like is that in their annual reports, they compute what they think is their return on incremental invested capital, which is a very important number from an investors perspective. They currently have it pegged at something like 37%, which is very high for a company of this size.
I am sorry to say though, I hate the coffee. Too weak, I can hardly taste it. On a recent road trip I stopped in for breakfast. Sorry to say I thought my griddle muffin (or whatever it is called) was nasty. But there was a line, and my tastes are not reflective of the general public i guess.
Sense And Nonsense About Climate Change. What Do Investors Need To Know? [View article]
"So, when terms like denier and believer are invoked, one should suspect organized superstition (i.e. religion) is involved."
I agree. The best way to understand this debate is through the lens of Edward Bernays classic book (1928), "Propaganda". If you have not read the book, note that he is a defender and practitioner of Propaganda, not a critic. I highly recommend that anyone who has not read it to pick up a copy. You will have a much better understanding of what drives public "debate" in a democracy and why "acceptable" viewpoints are often so monolithic.
For a taste of the book, here is the first sentence:
"THE conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. "
The NuStar Energy Big Dividend Looks Shaky [View article]
The incentive distributions to the GP of a growing MLP would make many hedge fund managers jealous. If the underlying business is solid I always look to get into the GP. If memory serves most of the guys who run these things keep their stake in the GP side.
In the case of NSH/NS I believe the highest IDR split is 25% of marginal cash flows rather than the common 50% of marginal cash flows, so it is a little more favorable to NS than some of these deals are.
I would rather be in the pool with the controlling interest rather than with people looking for a higher initial yield, which I kind of see as a teaser that gives up a long term advantage. Good article.
Sense And Nonsense About Climate Change. What Do Investors Need To Know? [View article]
Individualistic, conservative, hierarchical-thinking white males are the ones who created this (USA) country and pretty much everything of tangible, man-made value within it. Perhaps such characters are confident they can solve any technical climate problems as they occur without resorting to a panic or hysteria - Just as we put a man on the moon, developed satellite communications, the fundamentals of computer science, put a lunar rover on mars, etc.
And what is all this about "climate change" wasn't the problem "global warming" all of 5-10 years ago? And I believe before that it was the ice age. It is nice when every "change" in the climate can be used to prove your hypothesis - extremely useful from a political point of view.
The Treasury Bull Market Is Over; Inflation Will Take Center Stage [View article]
Hard assets are not always the best way to hedge or profit from inflation. Buffett discusses this in one of his essays, and I attempted to expound his principles in this article, for anyone interested. Basically he likes companies that can raise prices without having much need for new capital investment under the inflationary conditions. John Malone's spin on this concept is to be able to raise prices while debt outstanding is being devalued. Both approaches profit from inflation.
The Secret Of Warren Buffett's Alpha [View article]
I just noticed your use of the Average True Range indicator for the screen. I think this is a very useful indicator for trading, however I think there is an issue with the way it is used here and it might not be doing what you intend it to do.
The problem is that for the indicator to capture volatility accurately in this context, it needs to be relative to the stock's dollar price.
For example a 10 dollar stock with a .75 ATR is much more volatile in real terms than a 100 dollar stock with a .75 ATR. This is going to bias your list towards lower dollar priced stocks, not necessarily lower volatility stocks.
For example more than 50% of your stocks are under $20 and none are greater than about $56. If your reverse the sign on the ATR measure, all are over $20 and the highest price is almost $170.
For your purpose it would be nice if the finviz screen had something like "ATR/price" or "ATR/average price"
The Secret Of Warren Buffett's Alpha [View article]
Good article. The "stable" part of the leverage equation is extremely important. Buffett does not like to use leverage that is subject to margin calls. If you look at how he set up his fairly recent put trades on stock indexes, he made sure that none of them were subject to collateral or margin calls between now and the settlement date. If you are subject to collateral requirements you can get squeezed out of your holdings at exactly the wrong times.
The principle of accessing and using a stable, low cost source of financing and then investing stable, higher return assets is perhaps the most powerful wealth building formula that exists - The reason so many large fortunes have been made in real estate and private equity.
National Beverage Is Priced To Deliver Excellent Shareholder Returns [View article]
Beware Of These Upcoming Seasonal Patterns In Treasury Bonds And Gasoline [View article]
Doubling The Return Of The S&P 500 Over 20 Years [View article]
Also, one thing I note when looking at the low vol. index vs. the SP500 is that such an approach would have been laughed at for what looks like all of the mid to late 90's. I am not saying this as criticism, more a reflection of human nature. The fact is most investors (had there been such a product in the 90's) would have been dying to sell and get into a high vol. fund. Now of course, after a very volatile period with poor returns, low vol approaches look golden.
More Proof That Share Buybacks Do Not Add Value [View article]
Like with almost anything it is a matter of price, execution, and the underlying quality of the business. It is in analyzing these things where an investor can develop a specific edge.
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
Sense And Nonsense About Climate Change. What Do Investors Need To Know? [View article]
One of the problems with socialism is that there is often a lack of individual accountability or ownership. Some environmental issues suffer from this same problem. For example we all benefit from clean water and clean air, but who is accountable for ensuring that it stays clean?
If I was attempting to sell conservatives on an environmental policy, I would use this angle - I would not attempt to sell them on the non-falsifiable theory of climate change.
McDonald's Has A Cultural Clash And May Soon Get Help In Solving It [View article]
One thing I like is that in their annual reports, they compute what they think is their return on incremental invested capital, which is a very important number from an investors perspective. They currently have it pegged at something like 37%, which is very high for a company of this size.
I am sorry to say though, I hate the coffee. Too weak, I can hardly taste it. On a recent road trip I stopped in for breakfast. Sorry to say I thought my griddle muffin (or whatever it is called) was nasty. But there was a line, and my tastes are not reflective of the general public i guess.
Sense And Nonsense About Climate Change. What Do Investors Need To Know? [View article]
I agree. The best way to understand this debate is through the lens of Edward Bernays classic book (1928), "Propaganda". If you have not read the book, note that he is a defender and practitioner of Propaganda, not a critic. I highly recommend that anyone who has not read it to pick up a copy. You will have a much better understanding of what drives public "debate" in a democracy and why "acceptable" viewpoints are often so monolithic.
For a taste of the book, here is the first sentence:
"THE conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. "
The NuStar Energy Big Dividend Looks Shaky [View article]
In the case of NSH/NS I believe the highest IDR split is 25% of marginal cash flows rather than the common 50% of marginal cash flows, so it is a little more favorable to NS than some of these deals are.
I would rather be in the pool with the controlling interest rather than with people looking for a higher initial yield, which I kind of see as a teaser that gives up a long term advantage. Good article.
Sense And Nonsense About Climate Change. What Do Investors Need To Know? [View article]
And what is all this about "climate change" wasn't the problem "global warming" all of 5-10 years ago? And I believe before that it was the ice age. It is nice when every "change" in the climate can be used to prove your hypothesis - extremely useful from a political point of view.
The Secret Of Warren Buffett's Alpha [View article]
The Treasury Bull Market Is Over; Inflation Will Take Center Stage [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
The Secret Of Warren Buffett's Alpha [View article]
The problem is that for the indicator to capture volatility accurately in this context, it needs to be relative to the stock's dollar price.
For example a 10 dollar stock with a .75 ATR is much more volatile in real terms than a 100 dollar stock with a .75 ATR. This is going to bias your list towards lower dollar priced stocks, not necessarily lower volatility stocks.
For example more than 50% of your stocks are under $20 and none are greater than about $56. If your reverse the sign on the ATR measure, all are over $20 and the highest price is almost $170.
For your purpose it would be nice if the finviz screen had something like "ATR/price" or "ATR/average price"
The Secret Of Warren Buffett's Alpha [View article]
The Secret Of Warren Buffett's Alpha [View article]
The principle of accessing and using a stable, low cost source of financing and then investing stable, higher return assets is perhaps the most powerful wealth building formula that exists - The reason so many large fortunes have been made in real estate and private equity.