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Nat Stewart  

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  • IBM: What A 'Sit On Your Hands' Investment Looks Like [View article]
    March 3, 2001: Kodak suspends 2B stock buyback plan...

    http://lat.ms/1oDUrqF

    Free cash flow is never "free" in a competitive marketplace
    Oct 24, 2014. 09:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading VIX Futures And The VXX: Forward Curve, Momentum, And Inter-Market Effects [View article]
    The very good blog Volatilty Made Simple has tracked the simple momentum strategy that I describe in this article, as well as a bunch of other VIX related strategies. He calls it the "NAS VIX futures momentum". So far it has done well.

    http://goo.gl/4U5fGP

    Though the momentum system is a useful tool, in my personal trading I always use a stop when short volatility to avoid disaster risk. I also prefer to enter on short term strength within the context of the Contango and momentum effects. (taking advantage of short term mean reversion).
    Oct 24, 2014. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Layoffs Top 6,000, Closing Over 110 Outlets [View article]
    Perhaps there is a real estate story, but when u look at the most recent investor presentation it is all about fixing retail with "sears your way" or whatever. The company has zero relevance to anyone under 55. No one under that age needs or wants Sears. Based on my personal experience the appliances and service have gone severely downhill as well.

    That said the stock was up 4% today. Shutting stores is good news, apparently.
    Oct 23, 2014. 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mesabi Royalty Trust - A Long-Life Asset With Massive Operating Leverage [View article]
    No. Thanks for reading.
    Oct 23, 2014. 03:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    A blow-out quarter

    http://bit.ly/1nys8cw

    -Operating results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2014 (as compared to the same period in 2013):

    -Net income was $0.60 per share, an increase of $0.38 per share, or 172.7%;

    -Revenue from Income Properties totaled approximately $3.9 million, an increase of 17.2%;

    -Revenue from Commercial Loan Investments totaled approximately $382,000, a decrease of 40.7%;

    -Revenue from Real Estate Operations totaled approximately $8.6 million, an increase of 531.3%;

    -Revenue from Golf Operations increased by 1.4% and net operating results improved by 7.4%.

    Of note is that 1 of the 4 transactions (Totaling $42M in value) that the company has purchase and sale agreements for has an estimated closing date in Q4.

    The plan to unlock the hidden values is firing on all cylinders. Any fund that might have sold in Sept and contributed to the price dip will have major sellers remorse, and the shorts will be annihilated - Its not if, but when.
    Oct 21, 2014. 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Importance Of NOL Shells [View article]
    I saw on your blog that they did a new financing on 10/2/2014. Why do i not see an 8-k for this or the cambria deal?
    Oct 18, 2014. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mesa Labs: Investor Capitulation Has Created A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Mesa Labs has made another acquisition, this time a smaller one that looks to have a great deal of synergy with their biological indicator line.

    http://bit.ly/11oO7bZ
    Oct 15, 2014. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    It has been quite a persistent selloff and not what i expected. My guess is that a big fund has been running a sell program every day, which has suppressed the stock. Many of the funds just use quantitative screens and don't have any knowledge or specific info about the company.

    The interesting thing is that all of the news from the company has been good.

    - great investor presentation that makes it easier to value the land at a higher value than I used in this article
    -New investments which will increase earnings
    -they Locked in long-term, low cost financing

    The next quarterly earnings should be strong. I am confident that Albright and his team are going to unlock the value, regardless of short term market gyrations. I own more shares now than when I wrote this article. So while this selloff has been bad for those looking to ride a momentum wave, it has been a good thing for long term investors, IMO.
    Oct 15, 2014. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cracker Barrel Is A Cash Cow, Here's How To Milk It [View article]
    Interesting idea. I think some of the critics miss that the point that with a REIT spinoff, current Cracker Barrel holders would own both companies or stocks. The difference is that the earnings associated with the real estate would be tax advantaged allowing more effecient cash return to investors. I don't see why anything would have to change at the operational level. I'm not sure what kind of cap rate this type of REIT would trade at. Brad, do you have an estimate?
    Oct 14, 2014. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tribune Publishing Is Undervalued After Recently Being Spun Out [View article]
    I wonder if Oaktree is a buyer or if their position a holdover from the bankruptcy conversion of senior debt
    Oct 14, 2014. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    CTO has made it's single largest aquisition of an income property to date, a $19.1M investment in a Whole Foods Market Center. Even if initially at the low end of its yield guidance it is a nice spread to their cost of capital as documented by the recent financing.

    I have been surprised by the steady selling, though I believe is mostly related to sector weakness. Regardless, I plan to be opportunistic about adding to my position.

    The company has now invested $70M in income properties this year - I am very pleased by the rapid progress that the team is making.

    Press release:

    http://bit.ly/1BP0I3i
    Oct 7, 2014. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish On National Beverage [View article]
    Just a side note that I have been considering do to recent action in the currency markets. If the dollar stays super strong vs. other currencies or gets stronger, it will make FIZZ's US-based earnings highly desirable to an overseas or multinational corporation that borrows globally. Add this to the Brand angle and the potential for a larger distribution deal, and in my opinion the optionality is still highly compelling.
    Oct 7, 2014. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Exxon Mobil Offers An Outstanding Value In Today's Market [View article]
    Just a side note that I have been considering. If the dollar stays super strong vs. other currencies, it will make FIZZ's domestic-based earnings highly desirable to an overseas or multinational corporation - Corporations borrow globally. Add this to the Brand angle and in my opinion the optionality is still highly compelling, even if the timeline is not completely clear.
    Oct 7, 2014. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay: A Semi-Monopoly On The Real Killer App [View article]
    One of the best articles I have read this year. Highly informative.
    Oct 1, 2014. 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    CTO has made another loan investment and has announced the closing of a non-recourse $30M fixed rate mortgage.

    Proceeds from the mortgage were used to reduce the outstanding balance on the company's credit facility. I see this as a very good move, as 75% of the company's debt is now fixed rate with a weighted average maturity of 11.2 years. Very smart in today's uncertain rate environment.

    The company also acquired a $10m loan secured by an upscale hotel in dallas, texas.

    As stated in today's press release:

    "The Company’s investment represents a basis in the underlying hotel property of less than half of the estimated replacement cost."

    I believe that with Albright at the helm we have a very sharp value investor operating on our behalf. To those who too issue with the stock's liquidity, recent price action is a perfect example of why it is usually ok to be patient. It is ok to accumulate a position over time. In my opinion the recent sell off is driven by sector/macro concerns/fears. With 75% of debt now fixed rate the company is well positioned on that front, in my opinion.

    Link to press release:

    http://bit.ly/1nHNULh
    Sep 30, 2014. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
427 Comments
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