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Nat Stewart  

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  • Sees Used Diapers In More Ways Than One [View article]
    Paulo, if u are ultimately correct, what is the endgame - what happens when SHTF and the dog and pony shoe can't continue any longer?
    Jan 9, 2015. 10:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Best Ideas For 2015 [View article]
    Thanks. Good article.
    Jan 6, 2015. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Best Ideas For 2015 [View article]
    "we feel there is an equal chance they sell the tobacco business to one of their larger competitors."

    Do you know if a potential acquirer would be able to maintain the very favorable terms that the Vector Tobacco companies have under Master Settlement Agreement?
    Jan 6, 2015. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Doomsayers Were Wrong In 2009: 4 Reasons Why They Are Wrong Now [View article]
    Using Standard deviation as a prediction tool is a fairly interesting idea. The issue is that it looks like u used the complete data-set to create the standard deviation based levels that show buy/sell levels in the past. The way to do it so a predictive relationship might be valid is to only use data available at each signal event - for example the standard deviation that existed in Dec. 08 to predict the next years expected return. An interesting study might be using prior years % return to see if there are any momentum or reversal effects (on average) for the coming year.
    Jan 3, 2015. 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Is Buried By Junk Accounts [View article]
    "The actual number of fake/spam Twitter accounts is considerably higher than what is disclosed in the company's SEC filings"

    Yes but this isn't a problem. If u don't get the logic of social media, u need to watch this video. It explains everything.
    Dec 31, 2014. 07:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Consistent Risk/Reward Speculation That I Have Ever Found [View article]
    U can implement a similar payoff scheme with options.
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Continues To Crumble [View article]
    The truth never gets old.
    Dec 17, 2014. 06:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Time To Be Bearish Again? [View article]
    From the recent confrence call with the new CEO:

    "Now I will address the perceived threats to our U.S. Iron Ore business. Cliffs is a leading producer and supplier or iron ore pellets in the U.S. domestic market particularly in the Great Lakes region where we have transportation advantages and stable days of customers committed to long-term supply contracts.

    These contracts are built on formula pricing which helps to mitigate the volatility of seaborne pricing and works as a natural hedge against downward pricing pressure in global markets. Black [ph] spot pricing is just one factor in the revenue we generate from our customers.

    To illustrate that, this quarter benchmark iron ore pricing average $90 per ton. After sea trade to China and quality discounts, the major iron ore producers in Australia probably realized revenues of $70 to $75 per ton. And that may even be generous.

    As you saw in our release yesterday, our U.S. iron ore business was able to get above $100 per ton. That’s a very good price realization under the current market circus census [ph] and something I feel that many people do not appreciate about this business considering it is more than half of our iron ore sales.

    As we move forward and some of this contract near exploration most notably in late 2016, we will continue to structure them in ways that remove volatility. Cliffs and our customers are co-dependent. We know that and they know that.

    I also want to highlight here that not only do we have natural geographic and pricing structure advantages in our core U.S. Iron Ore markets, but we also sell a value-added product. Our U.S. Iron Ore pellets are often incorrectly compared with seaborne iron ore fines."

    In other words it is not all about seaborne iron ore pricing. The contracted, domestic market is a different animal.
    Dec 17, 2014. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Case For Consolidated-Tomoka: 45-55% Upside [View article]

    "Manpower survey: Volusia forecast to be No. 3 in nation for hiring"
    Dec 11, 2014. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish On National Beverage [View article]
    Could be out any day now. I'm working on an updated article that will cover my experience sampling the new LaCroix NiCola, and also a few updated ideas on the potential for some type of corporate action such as sale of brands. I had wanted to get it out early this week, unfortunately I came down with the flu this weekend and have not been up for writing - though feeling better now. Do to the closeness to earnings I will most likely just wait till they come out, so I have more info to analyze for the story.
    Dec 9, 2014. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Bother Diversifying, Just Buy Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    Berkshire has more than doubled the market's return since this article was published - indeed it almost seemed to be the starting gun that launched Berkshire out of the gates. Talk about bad timing.
    Dec 5, 2014. 10:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Case For Consolidated-Tomoka: 45-55% Upside [View article]
    This stock definitely has a timeline, but I suggest to anyone who thinks this will be a slow moving, sleepy situation to study the moves the company has made over the past 2 years. Also, study Albright's writings and how he is investing. Look at the team he has built. If this was going to be a "sleepy property stock" situation, there is no way these guys would have joined the company, IMO. These very experienced real estate professionals could be wrong, but I doubt it.
    Nov 24, 2014. 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Case For Consolidated-Tomoka: 45-55% Upside [View article]
    Great article!

    So much going on here that is positive. The sam's club story will be interesting to follow, I had not seen that yet. The Minto news is huge. All the development (including city and state investments such as the highway improvements) will work to increase the value of the remaining land.

    I'm stunned by the progress they are making. Consider who they replaced the corporate secretary with:

    "Dan joins us from Goldman Sachs Realty Management, located in Irving, Texas. His background as a real estate transactional and corporate attorney, along with his previous experience representing a large publicly-traded REIT, Crescent Real Estate Equities, make him an excellent fit for us as we position the Company for further growth.”

    This kind of hire IMO makes it clear they have big plans and are moving rapidly forward. I have a great deal of confidence in this team.

    As an alternative ending, I think that this asset would be tremendously valuable to an overseas buyer, such as one funding in Japanese Yen, were they are dead set on depreciating the currency.
    Nov 22, 2014. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Contenders: 26 Increases Expected In The Next 11 Weeks [View article]
    the 5% stock dividend is economically equivalent to a 5% dividend increase every year so long as it maintains its dividends per share at the same amount.
    Nov 17, 2014. 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's Brilliant Duracell Deal: A Reprise Of Past Deals, A Comment On The Present Market, A Whisper About The Future [View article]
    He wants more cash flow. Duracell, as a directly owned company will be able to return cash to him without double taxation. I am sure he will dividend cash up to Berkshire at a rate much higher than PG's easily after tax dividend.
    Nov 14, 2014. 10:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment