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Nat Stewart  

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  • Apple Pay: A Semi-Monopoly On The Real Killer App [View article]
    One of the best articles I have read this year. Highly informative.
    Oct 1, 2014. 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    CTO has made another loan investment and has announced the closing of a non-recourse $30M fixed rate mortgage.

    Proceeds from the mortgage were used to reduce the outstanding balance on the company's credit facility. I see this as a very good move, as 75% of the company's debt is now fixed rate with a weighted average maturity of 11.2 years. Very smart in today's uncertain rate environment.

    The company also acquired a $10m loan secured by an upscale hotel in dallas, texas.

    As stated in today's press release:

    "The Company’s investment represents a basis in the underlying hotel property of less than half of the estimated replacement cost."

    I believe that with Albright at the helm we have a very sharp value investor operating on our behalf. To those who too issue with the stock's liquidity, recent price action is a perfect example of why it is usually ok to be patient. It is ok to accumulate a position over time. In my opinion the recent sell off is driven by sector/macro concerns/fears. With 75% of debt now fixed rate the company is well positioned on that front, in my opinion.

    Link to press release:

    http://bit.ly/1nHNULh
    Sep 30, 2014. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Trap That Is Philip Morris International [View article]
    It is well documented that long-time smokers have a reduced life expectancy. Here is a decent article that summarizes a New England Journal of Medicine study:

    http://nyti.ms/1n35Gbu
    Sep 25, 2014. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Trap That Is Philip Morris International [View article]
    Ketan, as an article writer I am 100% certain that at least of half the commenters only read the headline and "shoot off" with their preconceived opinions without reading beyond the first paragraph of the article.
    Sep 20, 2014. 09:43 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Trap That Is Philip Morris International [View article]
    Great point William, but it is even better than you suggest. The effective nominal interest rate (if your 3.5% interest rate figure is correct) drops down to something like 2.5% do to the pre-tax nature of interest expense.

    If the inflation rate is say 1.5%, that means an effective real interest rate is only 1%... Not a bad deal!
    Sep 19, 2014. 05:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Trap That Is Philip Morris International [View article]
    In 2013 interest expense was only 7% of EBIT. Rather than being a sign of a pending problem, the accumulation of debt at historic low interest rates has been a very effective mechanism for funneling wealth to equity holders. The company has a huge cushion in terms of its capital return policy as over half has been used for buybacks not dividends.
    Sep 19, 2014. 04:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Trap That Is Philip Morris International [View article]
    Interesting observation. I live near a rehab facility. One thing I notice is that when the rehab population is out on the street in crowds on "break" or whatever, every single one of them is smoking a cigarette, without fail. It is a dense cloud of cigarette smoke.
    Sep 19, 2014. 04:27 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking Stock Quotes Regularly Is A Waste Of Time [View article]
    Come to Chicago and I will introduce you to plenty of real "day traders". Some individual operators and some with businesses structured like high technology firms (which they are). You don't know of day traders like the names you mentioned because the ideas don't scale well at that size - Day trading strategies are niches that do not require and can't use large amounts of capital - however can get a very high ROI on the capital that they do deploy. Has zero to do with investing. Day trading firms typically only use internal capital with no clients because there is no reason to share the profits as they are finite and limited and the ROI and consistency are very high.
    Sep 16, 2014. 09:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking Stock Quotes Regularly Is A Waste Of Time [View article]
    Its a great strategy for non-taxable or tax-deferred portfolios. Glad to hear it is working for u.
    Sep 15, 2014. 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking Stock Quotes Regularly Is A Waste Of Time [View article]
    The ability to profit from price fluctuations is actually much greater than u seem to realize. The issue is that the only way it works is when u are trading against others who are making mistakes, typically do to over-reaction. This means it is a limited opportunity and also that to do it well it takes quite a bit of study to identify consistently. In my opinion a trader who is well grounded in long term fundamentals is in a good position to select a pool of stocks to buy when the crowd for whatever reason drives price down quickly on flim-flam news of little long term significance. The expected value after such occurrences can be very high over the next few days to few weeks.
    Sep 15, 2014. 08:16 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking About The Cost Of College [View article]
    There is some truth to your point. Much of the difference in outcomes is do to the fact that college acts as a filter or screen for intelligence and work ethic.

    But the thing is, that does have significant value.

    Employers, particularly elite employers, use college attended as a filter or screen. If one (say) has an IQ of 130+, going to an elite school is going to open doors and make life easier, on average, than an individual with a similar aptitude that tries it on their own.


    That second person is going to have much more variability in their outcome (perhaps a big entrepreneurial hit, but also perhaps chronically under-employed relative to aptitude) as they don't get in the "foot in the door" at prestigious firms and are not viewed as socially elite (unless they are one of the few who create a massive success on their own, like a tech CEO, etc.).
    Sep 13, 2014. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish On National Beverage [View article]
    Thanks for commenting Batman
    Sep 13, 2014. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mesabi Trust: Cliffs Natural Resources' Q3 Conference Call Has Big Implications [View article]
    Plazmo, Look at a 1 year or multi-year chart of the stock. The volatility you are talking about is really not all that unusual. Just visually in the last year or so I see late OCT 2013, Mid Jan 2014, Late March/early April 2014, and early June 2014 as times that experienced relatively similar upwards volatility.

    If u are thinking it as a potential seasonal trading opportunity, the stock has (using dividend adjusted data) exhibited a relatively stable seasonal pattern since 1987, as I documented in this study: http://bit.ly/1qwjj3w

    Unless one has good info to trade on (Such as what James presented in a previous article), which had excellent info not factored into the stock price at that time) in my opinion investors are better off just holding and re-investing dividends.

    The problem with seasonal tendencies is that the more people are aware of them and act on them, the more likely they are to stop working - especially in a relatively thinly traded stock like this.
    Sep 13, 2014. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish On National Beverage [View article]
    U ask two questions. I ask one more: When will one of the big boys realize that they might be able to acquire LaCroix, get the market leading position plus a terrific product pipeline, plug it into their massive distribution and marketing systems, all while "taking out" a key competitor? Would accomplish much more than developing or attempting to "bulk up" a brand internally, IMO.
    Sep 11, 2014. 06:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish On National Beverage [View article]
    Got my annual report in the mail - it contains images of a stunning new LaCroix product and an all new natural Shasta.

    The LaCroix La-Cola looks like a Diet Cola killer to me! The option value created by the potential for a large distribution deal or a total sale of the key brands is going up. Can't wait to see the new product in the stores!!
    Sep 11, 2014. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
429 Comments
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