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Nat Stewart

 
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  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    For those interested in my trading perspective - I believe that new all time highs for the stock are closer than most realize.
    Aug 20, 2014. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    I have favorited two comments that I believe added substantially to the discussion. after this weeks high velocity breakout I am hoping some supply is shaken loose and we are able to have a pullback before the high-probability rise continues. As the trader joes news seems to have triggered the upward revaluation (when I get back from vacation this weekend) i will be looking to update to a more detailed valuation including the option value of the subsurface rights, some of the breakdowns highlighted by a commenter I favorited, etc. If any knowledgeable readers would like to collaborate message me and I will get back to you early next week. I continue to believe there is tremendous long term value here that will be fully unlocked by Albright. in conclusion I am left wanting to add to my position.
    Aug 20, 2014. 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SWK Holdings: A Micro Cap With A Solid Plan To Compound Shareholder Equity [View article]
    I am positive on the situation. Glad they kept the rights offering.
    Aug 20, 2014. 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    Just a note as I am leaving for a vacation today and will be unable to engage in much dialogue here this upcoming week.

    I wanted to point out that there is more to the story than is contained in this article - I naturally had to be selective. For example, 600 acres of the company's property was just recently entitled for 1000 residential units. This property was just re-acquired via a foreclosure process in Jan 2014. Albright has done much serious work to bring this business under tight operational control, including things such s getting overhead costs under control and fixing the pension liability. If it was just a real estate play without the Albright and Winters catalyst, I would not have invested in it nearly as heavily. Also, the fact that the Volusia Economic Development Corporation and the City government seem to be very eager to stimulate the local economy is a huge positive. The Daytona Speedway is also doing a massive 400m dollar renovation, which will will also benefit the local economy and potentially raise the areas desirability.

    There are definitely risks such as the health of the real estate market, both locally and nationally. However that is always true for all real estate stocks, and based on my research the Daytona Beach area is picking up steam.
    Aug 16, 2014. 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    Big news after the close today. The company has closed on the 76 acre sale. While the incoming cash is great, the largest benefit in my opinion will come from having this high quality tenant in the area, which will boost the desirability of the rest of the company's high-potential land.

    ---- From the press release ----

    August 15, 2014 - DAYTONA BEACH, FLORIDA - Consolidated-Tomoka Land Co. (NYSE MKT: CTO) (the “Company”) today announced the sale of approximately 76 acres of land located on the east side of Interstate 95 at a purchase price of approximately $7.8 million, or approximately $103,000 per acre, resulting in an estimated gain at closing of approximately $3.8 million with an additional gain of approximately $400,000 to be recognized as certain road improvements are completed over the next six months. As part of the contractual agreement with the buyer, the Company incurred approximately $2.1 million in costs to prepare the pad site for vertical construction. In connection with this transaction the Company received $400,000 from the CEO Business Alliance, a private economic development organization in Daytona Beach, as reimbursement for a portion of the pad site costs. In addition, the Company expects to receive payments totaling approximately $1.1 million from Volusia County, based upon certain milestones being achieved including when the distribution center receives its certificate of occupancy and the dates when specified numbers of jobs have been created at the buyer’s operations. The Company believes the milestones could be reached in late 2015. Should the milestones be achieved, the estimated net gain on the sale would total approximately $5.3 million.

    Mark E. Patten, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company, stated, “We are pleased to complete this transaction with the buyer, particularly given the expected impact of the projected 630,000 square foot distribution center operation on the economy of Volusia County and the City of Daytona Beach.” Mr. Patten further stated, “The proceeds from the sale will be utilized through the Section 1031 tax-deferred exchange process and continue our strategy of investing in income producing properties.”

    John P. Albright, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company stated, “We greatly appreciate the support of the State of Florida, Volusia County, the City of Daytona Beach, and the CEO Business Alliance through the significant economic incentives they provided to help bring this transaction to fruition, as well as the efforts of Team Volusia Economic Development Corporation.”

    http://bit.ly/1mSB2vw
    Aug 15, 2014. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    As to the REIT conversion, there is a reason I put that topic under the heading "end game". I don't think it is going to happen tomorrow. However, I think they are moving much quicker than you realize. As of July 17th, they have already committed $40M of capital to income properties or property-backed loans this year, with a target of doing more by year end. Albright is in my opinion acting with real urgency to realize value.

    To conclude here, I agree 100% with the comments made By Mr. Winters that I quoted in the article. Add CEO Albright to the mix and in my opinion the future is very bright.
    Aug 15, 2014. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    Jeff, Purchase and sale agreements always contain language related to contingencies that involve due diligence - that is expected based upon what a purchase and sale agreement is. Regardless, $50m of purchase and sale agreements is huge news, in my opinion, as is the 76 acre closing expected in the 3rd quarter. I am very impressed with what is going on, so we disagree there.

    As to your other comments, the notion that investors should do enough work on an idea to be conformable with it is common sense and not related to the content of my article. This is a long term idea. As such, waiting for a pullback or consolidation is not a bad idea - though not foolproof either, as if the pullback does not happen as one expects they can miss the move (which has happened to me many times).
    Aug 15, 2014. 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: United-Guardian Earnings Reveal Some Weakness [View article]
    I would like to see them team up with Guthy-Renker or a similar company that has mastered marketing and selling to make a product line (or customize an existing line) that can really explode the sales.

    http://bit.ly/1r6X9FK

    Just imagine what that type of plan could do to the stock price of a small company like this.
    Aug 12, 2014. 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: United-Guardian Earnings Reveal Some Weakness [View article]
    The company needs a real marketing person or team that is aggressive. They are sitting on a bunch of high potential products and in my opinion not getting the job done with regards to getting them to market adequately. As I have followed the company over the past 4 years or so, I have admired their strong products and economic returns, but grown increasingly frustrated by the fact that their seems to be a complete lack of marketing talent. There is enormous untapped potential within this company that they are not realizing.

    Regardless, the price swings are in my opinion a part of short-term market myopia. If you only buy when things look "great" you only buy when a stock is fully valued or more likely overvalued. All the short term thinkers piled in a few months ago, now they are puking their positions. A wonderful strategy for losing.
    Aug 11, 2014. 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Herbalife Again [View article]
    I did use Google and was surprised to not see any distributors right downtown or near my neighborhood. I figured there would at least be one. I then go to the HLF site and rather then just have me enter my zip code and be given a contact or a contact in my area, they want me to fill out a bunch of personal info. Annoying. I did note on the Yellow-pages map that it is true the clubs are not in great areas. Not sure I want to park my car in the areas where I see the clubs and potentially be mugged or have the emblem stolen, etc. Might have to buy on Ebay - however I feel I would be missing a valuable part of the HLF experience by doing that.
    Aug 7, 2014. 11:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Wrong To Take A Position In A Stock And Then Write About It On Seeking Alpha? [View article]
    I agree with the author 100%.

    On a slightly different note, My understanding is that the big firms trade ahead of their brokerage recommendations, and then "provide liquidity" when the stock pops on their recommendations. It is funny to me that this behavior is seen as "OK" when done by a firm, but not when done by an individual.

    I personally could care less if an author makes a quick trade or not, what matters to me is the quality of the information and analysis.

    By the way for those who like to make everything personal, I have only written about long term holdings and have never traded around my articles.

    I for one would like to see a detailed exposition on the topic in terms of any applicable laws or regulations. I think this would clear allot of things up.
    Aug 7, 2014. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Herbalife Again [View article]
    Does anyone know a distributor in Chicago? I would like to sample a shake.
    Aug 6, 2014. 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FTD Companies - An Undervalued Spin-Off [View article]
    " I'm just not convinced that FTD 'bought' Provide, or Liberty got FTD on the cheap." I agree this is not a normal acquisition, especially considering the liberty playbook that is usually used.

    Where have you seen financials on Provide? Did linta provide them? I have not hat time to look yet.

    I note the price/sales ratio provide for provide is priced at around .7, so I was thinking it is possible that it is undervalued in the transaction as well. Overall, and withholding full judgement until I see financials on provide, I think it is going likely to be very good for FTD shareholders. Linta might be a stock worth further investigation as well.
    Jul 31, 2014. 08:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FTD Companies - A Free Cash Flow Monster With 50% Upside [View article]
    Interesting news today along with the decent earnings pre-announcement.

    http://bit.ly/1lWRjyN

    One interesting note is that LINTA will be getting stock in the deal that that will make them by far (at 35%) the largest shareholder. If this follows the standard "liberty" playbook, after the dust settles we are likely to see massive buybacks. My guess is that this acquisition will also "reload" the pool of amortization expense.
    Jul 30, 2014. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Has Herbalife Kept The Game Going For So Long? [View article]
    You could say the same thing about many of the brand name products sold at the supermarket. The "special formula" idea is mostly a marketing gimmick. There is nothing special about them, but people still pay a premium for them.
    Jul 27, 2014. 08:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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