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Nat Stewart

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  • Is Cadillac's ELR A Tesla Competitor? Maybe [View article]
    "..the ELR has LED light-blade tail lights with the word Cadillac precision etched into the plastic. Tesla doesn't have those. The ELR offers optional 20" aluminum wheels with "precision painted pockets"

    Sold! Tesla is toast! ; )
    Oct 18 10:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: A 2 Million Ounce Order Executed? [View article]
    Speculative interests are mostly money managers like hedge funds and Commodity Trading Adviser firms, who collectively manage hundreds of billions in the futures markets.
    Oct 18 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: A 2 Million Ounce Order Executed? [View article]
    Most of the managed money in the futures markets is managed using various trend-following type systems. These programs follow very simple mathematical rules that buy highs and sell lows, or use some other trend indicator such as a moving average.

    Last Friday took out a multi-month lows in the gold contract. The most likely explanation for the inefficient trading is that a cluster of traders had sell-stop type orders near the same price level, which temporarily swamped the market's liquidity.

    In other words it was likely just a focused point of capitulation by speculative interests.
    Oct 17 09:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Blackstone Group's Management Hosts Blackstone Webcast (Transcript) [View article]
    What is interesting is how this fellow's perspective changes depending upon if he has his investor hat on, or his policy wonk hat on.

    On one hand, "labor costs" are too high relative to Asia (investor hat). On the other hand, "wages are stagnant and there is not enough demand" policy wonk hat.

    I wonder how this fellow mentally resolves the apparent contradiction. His book rec (The one Authored by C. Murray) is a good one.
    Oct 6 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: An Ethical Short [View article]
    "but 90 percent would fail no matter how hard they try. This is part of the business model."

    That is part of the business model for most all commission only sales opportunities. It is built into the economics of the commission-only business model.

    Consider commission-only life insurance. Most flunk out after a few sales to the "natural market" (friends and family) while a few stars stick around - And those stars often become sales managers (recruiters) rather than directly prospect themselves. In other words the recruitment focus/high failure rate thing is not at all unique to Herbalife or even to MLM schemes.
    Oct 5 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: An Ethical Short [View article]
    That seems like a valid point to me herbs.
    Oct 5 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: An Ethical Short [View article]
    Because salesmanship matters. If the consumer was truly objective, my guess is that most consumer products would disappear. We don't really need 100's of brands of everything. Bottom line: Person-to-person selling works. Friends influence friends. It has been going on for ages. It is a marketing niche. Do I think MLM is dumb? Yes. However, my opinion does not make it a crime.
    Oct 4 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: An Ethical Short [View article]
    "When you want to purchase a product, the only way to do so is by... connecting to a distributor :) What a joke! If you such a nice company that wants people around the world to be slim and healthy, why don't you just sell your products without giving a BS lecture on benefits of distributorship? :)"

    You can't by products directly from most companies that use a distributorship model. In many cases the successful distributors have a great deal of clout, particularly as a group. Even if a company wanted to start selling directly, it can be very difficult.
    Oct 4 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: An Ethical Short [View article]
    I think most participants know such things are a uneconomic schemes, but they are greedy and hope they are in early enough to make money and leave later participants as the bag-holders. That is the basic logic of most self-reinforcing bubbles that are not tied to underlying economics. People blame others only when it turns out they are left with the losses they had hoped would fall onto others.

    There is so much disagreement on Herbalife (and both sides seem to have solid arguments) that to me it is clear it is a matter of opinion. Many, many people feel Herbalife is a good company, a good brand, that helps people lose weight with real products and support groups.

    The distribution method might seem silly, even foolish to some intelligent people, but the fact is many people enjoy participating in these things.
    Oct 4 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: An Ethical Short [View article]
    William Stiritz purchased 5% of the company with is own money. He is not a rumor monger, but rather one of the most successful capital allocators and consumer goods company CEO's of all time. He might have gotten the situation wrong, but I would not bet on it.
    Oct 2 08:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interactive Brokers: Looking For A New Broker, I Found A Compelling Investment [View article]
    IB basically cherry picks other brokerage firms most active, profitable, and informed customers - People who are experienced and trade large amounts while not requiring a great deal of service.

    With regards to customer service, I will say they have some subject experts that are extremely informed, possibly former professional traders, etc. I was very pleased in how a question I had a few months ago was answered. Other than the rare issue though, I have hardly used customer service in my 9+ years of using the firm. Reliability is very high and the platform is very good once you get used to it.

    I also like Thomas Peterffy - my feeling is that he is one of those guys with allot of competence and integrity.

    I will definitely be looking/researching the stock as a potential investment. Good article.
    Oct 2 09:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interactive Brokers: Looking For A New Broker, I Found A Compelling Investment [View article]
    Ownership of IBG LLC is split between Interactive Brokers Group (the public company, owns 11.9% economic interest) and IBG Holdings LLC (88.1%, not a public company). The following graphic from IBKR's investor site diagrams the relationship:

    http://bit.ly/172PdpR
    Oct 2 08:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pounding The Sand For Hi-Crush Partners LP [View article]
    Dlitten, (or anyone else) are you getting this $50 million figure just by looking at the initial balance sheet figures, or something else? Thanks
    Oct 1 10:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedgeye Report On Kinder Morgan Fails To Impress [View article]
    FreeState, my guess (and it is just a guess) is that he was fed the point of view from short sellers. When i looked back at his tweets, it seemed that the time between his "studying and getting up to speed" and the issuance of his report was quite short. This leads me to believe he was leaning on someone elses analysis. Regardless, I think his report did raise some valid questions that need to be answered.
    Sep 15 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Rare Loss For Bonds [View article]
    "The historic relationship between bonds and stocks is that they generally have moved in opposite directions"

    The negative correlation between stock and bond prices emerged in the 2000's after a long period of positive correlation.
    Sep 12 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
288 Comments
283 Likes