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Nat Stewart  

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  • Herbalife: Who's Consuming All Those Shakes? And Why... [View article]
    Sep 9, 2014. 11:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Who's Consuming All Those Shakes? And Why... [View article]
    "...nobody who buys a lottery ticket thinks the odds are in their favor."

    This is not true. I had the good fortune of working a part-time job at a deli-convenience store while in college and learned many useful things about the bottom 50%, and particularly about the bottom 20%, or underclass.

    One of which is that the concept of mathematical probability or "odds" is completely incomprehensible to a large segment of the population. It might seem see strange to people here, but many people are literally not capable of understanding why lottery tickets are a bad value. If u try to "help" by explaining it they look at you like you are from mars.

    Sep 9, 2014. 11:04 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HC2's Deal Making Offers Significant Upside [View article]
    Good article. It seems like HCHC has a big incentive to get the deal done in a timely way - and of course other SHFK shareholders who are paying attention see that, and would like to capture a bit of the premium before moving on. It might be interesting to attempt to figure out the remaining shareholder composition of SHFK. If enough are going to stand pat for a higher price it seems SHFK might itself be a nice risk/reward situation. I really liked your ALJJ article, nice job on that one.
    Sep 4, 2014. 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish On National Beverage [View article]
    Turb0kat, I agree. Thanks for commenting.
    Sep 4, 2014. 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    For those who liked this article, My latest article here at Seeking Alpha can be found here:
    Sep 3, 2014. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish On National Beverage [View article]
    I hear what you are saying with regards to liquidity and trading volume. I have it as averaging 20K shares per-day lately, however, which is not terrible for smaller investors, small funds, or patient mid-sized funds.

    I also find that there are very distinct liquidity patterns in this stock throughout the day. There is a fairly regular pattern of "morning shakeouts/super wide spreads" followed by an increase in liquidity after a certain point. This is similar to many other smaller-capitalization stocks.

    I do think that Caporella is looking to achieve something bigger (as I have written), but it takes time to develop - and only time will tell. I agree about the company being great - It is allot of fun to follow and write about.

    Thanks for the comment.
    Sep 3, 2014. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United-Guardian, Inc.: Excellent Fundamentals Beat Weakened Earnings [View article]
    Great article about a unique company with great economics. I have been considering doing an article on UG for some time but have not gotten around to it.

    "The Company is currently developing variant formulations of Lubrajel utilizing natural ingredients out of awareness of the burgeoning demand among consumers for alternatives to products with artificial ingredients."

    I think there is a huge amount of potential energy in this stock, it just needs the right marketing partners, which as you say they looking for. They need sales growth so that the sound economics and operating leverage can really pop. I would like to see them work with Guthy-Renker (creator of Proactiv) to sell a product customized to that direct-to-consumer market.
    Sep 2, 2014. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Female Health Company: Disaster Du Jour With Attractive Risk/Reward [View article]
    Just introduced to this stock today by a fellow Chicago stock picker and was happy to find this Seeking Alpha article.

    FHCO will definitely need to deeply penetrate the female consumer market if they plan to fully to engorge investor pockets with hard cash.

    Good Article.

    I'm a big fan of the add agency RoosterNY and think that they could do some great work for FHCO that would get attention and buzz:
    Aug 29, 2014. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    CTO has released an investor report with much useful additional information, particularly on the land purchase and sale agreements as well as info that can be used to interpolate a more accurate net asset value.

    They have also provided much greater detail on the Subsurface rights. I plan to take the subsurface info and do some research/call around to see what I can find with regards to potential NAV contribution.

    My initial take-away is that my conservative $72 valuation has significantly undervalued the company - good news. I will be updating my research this week based upon the newly revealed info.
    Aug 28, 2014. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    Good article on the Trader Joe's deal in the Orlando Business Journal:

    The state of Florida pushed forward $255M of improvements to I-95 in Daytona Beach to 2015.

    All of these improvements to the area's infrastructure should work to improve the desirability and Value of CTO's land.
    Aug 26, 2014. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SWK Holdings: A Micro Cap With A Solid Plan To Compound Shareholder Equity [View article]
    I don't know I have not looked into it. The NOLs were created while it was an entirely different operating company so the question does not interest me much.
    Aug 25, 2014. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SWK Holdings: New Equity Financing Is A Game-Changer, But Current Entry Price Is Not Compelling [View article]
    Great article. I think the 1.37 capital raise strongly suggests that Carlson Capital is not going to abuse minority shareholders, as u also suggested. I Look forward to watching Mr. Pope and Mr. Black ramp this thing up.
    Aug 25, 2014. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Winmark Corporation: A High Margin, Owner-Operator Small Cap That Is Breaking Out [View article]
    What business are you in? With regards to your concerns, Winmark is not really a one man show. If you look at the insider ownership you will find that a number of the executives have very large ownership relative to their salaries. I have spoken with one of the top execs (not Morgan) on the phone and he demonstrated a real passion for the business and it's continued success. So while Morgan has been a great leader I think they have other talent that cares deeply about the company and has what it takes to lead if necessary.

    I am happy that the book value throws many off as it means the stock is more likely to be mispriced. I have meant to do a follow up article for some time, perhaps i will get to it this week.
    Aug 25, 2014. 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    For those interested in my trading perspective - I believe that new all time highs for the stock are closer than most realize.
    Aug 20, 2014. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    I have favorited two comments that I believe added substantially to the discussion. after this weeks high velocity breakout I am hoping some supply is shaken loose and we are able to have a pullback before the high-probability rise continues. As the trader joes news seems to have triggered the upward revaluation (when I get back from vacation this weekend) i will be looking to update to a more detailed valuation including the option value of the subsurface rights, some of the breakdowns highlighted by a commenter I favorited, etc. If any knowledgeable readers would like to collaborate message me and I will get back to you early next week. I continue to believe there is tremendous long term value here that will be fully unlocked by Albright. in conclusion I am left wanting to add to my position.
    Aug 20, 2014. 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment