Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha Portfolio App for iPad
Finance
(1)

Nat Stewart

View as an RSS Feed
View Nat Stewart's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Warren Buffett On Profiting In An Inflationary Environment [View article]
    If you ever remember where he said that, post it here or message me. I would like to see that.
    Nov 1 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Asian-Americans are the highest-income, best-educated and fastest-growing racial group in the United States," the Pew Research Center wrote in recent massive study. The WSJ discusses the rise of Asian-Americans in a weekend essay, saying that they "have become the immigrant group that most embodies the American promise of success driven by will and resolve." [View news story]
    Reasonable people can disagree. I find the moralistic tone (So eager to judge who is an immoral racist and who is honestly interpreting facts differently) of people like D. Virginia to be one of the reason these subjects are difficult to addressed honestly and openly.

    I for one think that Asian-Americans on average have a slight IQ advantage over White-Americans and that it is likely in part do to genetic difference. My reading and interpretation of the data suggests that this is true, and many people who value basic facts above subjective interpretation or speculation agree with me.

    But so what? How high was Steve Job's IQ? I am sure it was above average but it is really beside the point. How high is the IQ of the average businessman who makes a product or service that make our lives better? Look at an inventor like Edison, etc. Certainly they would have measured highly on a basic intelligence test, yet their contribution to society rose far above simple academic performance or ranking systems for abstract intelligence. In today's word basic intelligence is itself becoming commodified.

    There are many, many human qualities that when combined with hard work can make for a successful life, career, and contribution to society. The key is finding a comparative advantage for yourself and then working hard.

    Bottom line: If people who developed separately for a very long period of time on average have some different aptitudes and strengths, it is really not the end of the world. Lets stop pretending that it would be, because plenty of evidence suggests that it is true.
    Oct 29 08:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Asian-Americans are the highest-income, best-educated and fastest-growing racial group in the United States," the Pew Research Center wrote in recent massive study. The WSJ discusses the rise of Asian-Americans in a weekend essay, saying that they "have become the immigrant group that most embodies the American promise of success driven by will and resolve." [View news story]
    There was actually a pretty interesting study done on admissions to elite Universities done within the last few years. It found that when controlling for objective factors like SAT scores, non-elite (meaning usually rural and christian) whites are the most discriminated against and underrepresented group in the United States. Basically, the slots that would go to them tend to go to "diversity" candidates who on average have much lower objective performance. The entire picture of America that so many people have is just flat out wrong and contrary to facts.
    Oct 28 02:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Asian-Americans are the highest-income, best-educated and fastest-growing racial group in the United States," the Pew Research Center wrote in recent massive study. The WSJ discusses the rise of Asian-Americans in a weekend essay, saying that they "have become the immigrant group that most embodies the American promise of success driven by will and resolve." [View news story]
    No, in fact it is not coincidence, Virginia. Up until 1965 our immigration laws were designed to keep the USA a majority-European population. The USA was founded by Northern and Western Europeans, so the observations you make are 100% consistent with this fact and the relatively recent change to our policy. And no, it does not surprise me that some profess joy at displacing the former majority population, that is human nature.
    Oct 28 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "Asian-Americans are the highest-income, best-educated and fastest-growing racial group in the United States," the Pew Research Center wrote in recent massive study. The WSJ discusses the rise of Asian-Americans in a weekend essay, saying that they "have become the immigrant group that most embodies the American promise of success driven by will and resolve." [View news story]
    The notion of "minority" or "majority" is rapidly losing its cache or significance do to economic globalization. You are a "minority" or member of the "majority' only relative to where you happen to be standing or living. For example many Asian-Americans are "minorities" only because recent generations chose to move to a country founded by white people. My understanding is that "Asians" actually make up the global-majority human population. Indeed, white people are rapidly losing their position as the "majority' in this country (USA) and in many other countries that they founded. Look at Canada, with a huge land mass and relatively small population. I highly doubt it will be a majority white or European derived population in 50 years.

    If I moved to Asia I would find myself to be a minority. So In what sense am I a member of "the majority?" Only in the sense that my ancestors were the founding population of this particular country - and this notion is not going to hold up for much longer.

    As a side note, the notion "blue eyed" people have some type of inside track (as someone above suggested) in America is a joke. We are in fact a rapidly shrinking minority who will likely be a mere novelty in the not to distant future. We have always been a mere novelty outside of Northern-European derived countries and make up just a small percent of the earth's population. Maybe we should band together to get special perks? Ha ha.

    In terms of relative success, I believe white people are suffering from the problem identified in the movie "Idiocracy" Time will tell.
    Oct 28 10:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Simple Trend-Following Model Has Crushed Buy And Hold [View article]
    Thank you. I think the other person who read that Buffett article liked it as well.
    Oct 15 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Simple Trend-Following Model Has Crushed Buy And Hold [View article]
    I do not attempt to duplicate my approach to evaluating systems within an article. I linked to an article that explains my approach.
    Oct 15 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Simple Trend-Following Model Has Crushed Buy And Hold [View article]
    The 1990s are a perfect example of a period where a long term trend model will typically underperform staying long. This is because it was generally a bull market with enough volatility to at times trigger the timing model. No approach is foolproof at all times. The early 20th century bear markets, the 30's, 70's and 2000-2009 were periods where this approach really pulled ahead. vs. The super bullish periods when the index gained ground.
    Oct 15 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Simple Trend-Following Model Has Crushed Buy And Hold [View article]
    I like your comment because it acknowledges real investor behavior. Too often it is assumed that "buy and hold" is a benchmark for what investors are really doing, when in fact this is not the case.
    Oct 15 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Simple Trend-Following Model Has Crushed Buy And Hold [View article]
    The trend following model is a useful tool. However, as I stated above just keep in mind for long periods it can also be frustrating (like with any approach). For example at times it gets "whipsawed" out when it would have been better to buy and hold.
    Oct 15 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Simple Trend-Following Model Has Crushed Buy And Hold [View article]
    Interesting insights, thanks for commenting.
    Oct 15 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Simple Trend-Following Model Has Crushed Buy And Hold [View article]
    Thank you sir. Keep in mind all approaches have strengths and weaknesses. For example, even though this system pulled ahead by avoiding the major bear markets, It underperformed in periods that were generally bullish but with enough volatility to trigger the timing mechanism.
    Oct 15 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extremely Simple Trend-Following Trading Models Have Dominated Buy-And-Hold [View article]
    It was evaluated as an on/off type of signal. You would buy the first buy signal you get, then sell the next sell signal you get, etc. It might have been more clear if I wrote something like, "Long if month end close higher than X periods back" rather than "buy".
    Oct 11 11:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extremely Simple Trend-Following Trading Models Have Dominated Buy-And-Hold [View article]
    Hi Davey, you make some great points. I think you have raised enough interesting questions that I have decided to write a more general article on the topic of my approach to evaluating trading and investing ideas. It should have a chance to write it within the next few days and will post it on my web site.

    Just as a few general notes here, however:

    My purpose is never to convince or persuade. In this article and in all others that I write, I am merely presenting information that I find relevant. I find the concept of trend following to be relevant, so I present the idea here with an extremely simple rule set. I also do not attempt to document my approach to validating/rejecting trading ideas. That is beyond the scope of the article.

    Readers of my articles can and should maintain their own critical facilities and perspective just as they should with all other information.
    Oct 7 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can Profit From Other Investors' Mistakes: Price Action Research In The SPY [View article]
    This part of the article is critical to understanding it's purpose:

    "The following chart is presented as "building block" material, not a trading system. We are seeking to do two things. First, We are seeking to gain an understanding of market dynamics that when refined can be capitalized upon. Second, it is a demonstration of how small advantages can add up over time to something very significant."

    -The building blog of this article was the difference in forward expectation between buying very recent strength vs. buying very recent weakness. This can be measured using a tremendous number or rule sets, of which I only presented one.
    -The other key idea is that a small advantage adds up over time. I have found that many people interested in trading over-estimate what the average effect of any one trade should be, and under-estimate the extreme importance of compounding returns over time.

    Thanks for commenting.
    Oct 7 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
130 Comments
132 Likes