Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Nat Stewart  

View Nat Stewart's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Cracker Barrel Is A Cash Cow, Here's How To Milk It [View article]
    Interesting idea. I think some of the critics miss that the point that with a REIT spinoff, current Cracker Barrel holders would own both companies or stocks. The difference is that the earnings associated with the real estate would be tax advantaged allowing more effecient cash return to investors. I don't see why anything would have to change at the operational level. I'm not sure what kind of cap rate this type of REIT would trade at. Brad, do you have an estimate?
    Oct 14, 2014. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tribune Publishing Is Undervalued After Recently Being Spun Out [View article]
    I wonder if Oaktree is a buyer or if their position a holdover from the bankruptcy conversion of senior debt
    Oct 14, 2014. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    CTO has made it's single largest aquisition of an income property to date, a $19.1M investment in a Whole Foods Market Center. Even if initially at the low end of its yield guidance it is a nice spread to their cost of capital as documented by the recent financing.

    I have been surprised by the steady selling, though I believe is mostly related to sector weakness. Regardless, I plan to be opportunistic about adding to my position.

    The company has now invested $70M in income properties this year - I am very pleased by the rapid progress that the team is making.

    Press release:

    http://bit.ly/1BP0I3i
    Oct 7, 2014. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Bullish On National Beverage [View article]
    Just a side note that I have been considering do to recent action in the currency markets. If the dollar stays super strong vs. other currencies or gets stronger, it will make FIZZ's US-based earnings highly desirable to an overseas or multinational corporation that borrows globally. Add this to the Brand angle and the potential for a larger distribution deal, and in my opinion the optionality is still highly compelling.
    Oct 7, 2014. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Exxon Mobil Offers An Outstanding Value In Today's Market [View article]
    Just a side note that I have been considering. If the dollar stays super strong vs. other currencies, it will make FIZZ's domestic-based earnings highly desirable to an overseas or multinational corporation - Corporations borrow globally. Add this to the Brand angle and in my opinion the optionality is still highly compelling, even if the timeline is not completely clear.
    Oct 7, 2014. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay: A Semi-Monopoly On The Real Killer App [View article]
    One of the best articles I have read this year. Highly informative.
    Oct 1, 2014. 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Is Taking Off And Headed Much Higher [View article]
    CTO has made another loan investment and has announced the closing of a non-recourse $30M fixed rate mortgage.

    Proceeds from the mortgage were used to reduce the outstanding balance on the company's credit facility. I see this as a very good move, as 75% of the company's debt is now fixed rate with a weighted average maturity of 11.2 years. Very smart in today's uncertain rate environment.

    The company also acquired a $10m loan secured by an upscale hotel in dallas, texas.

    As stated in today's press release:

    "The Company’s investment represents a basis in the underlying hotel property of less than half of the estimated replacement cost."

    I believe that with Albright at the helm we have a very sharp value investor operating on our behalf. To those who too issue with the stock's liquidity, recent price action is a perfect example of why it is usually ok to be patient. It is ok to accumulate a position over time. In my opinion the recent sell off is driven by sector/macro concerns/fears. With 75% of debt now fixed rate the company is well positioned on that front, in my opinion.

    Link to press release:

    http://bit.ly/1nHNULh
    Sep 30, 2014. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Trap That Is Philip Morris International [View article]
    It is well documented that long-time smokers have a reduced life expectancy. Here is a decent article that summarizes a New England Journal of Medicine study:

    http://nyti.ms/1n35Gbu
    Sep 25, 2014. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Trap That Is Philip Morris International [View article]
    Ketan, as an article writer I am 100% certain that at least of half the commenters only read the headline and "shoot off" with their preconceived opinions without reading beyond the first paragraph of the article.
    Sep 20, 2014. 09:43 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Trap That Is Philip Morris International [View article]
    Great point William, but it is even better than you suggest. The effective nominal interest rate (if your 3.5% interest rate figure is correct) drops down to something like 2.5% do to the pre-tax nature of interest expense.

    If the inflation rate is say 1.5%, that means an effective real interest rate is only 1%... Not a bad deal!
    Sep 19, 2014. 05:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Trap That Is Philip Morris International [View article]
    In 2013 interest expense was only 7% of EBIT. Rather than being a sign of a pending problem, the accumulation of debt at historic low interest rates has been a very effective mechanism for funneling wealth to equity holders. The company has a huge cushion in terms of its capital return policy as over half has been used for buybacks not dividends.
    Sep 19, 2014. 04:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Trap That Is Philip Morris International [View article]
    Interesting observation. I live near a rehab facility. One thing I notice is that when the rehab population is out on the street in crowds on "break" or whatever, every single one of them is smoking a cigarette, without fail. It is a dense cloud of cigarette smoke.
    Sep 19, 2014. 04:27 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking Stock Quotes Regularly Is A Waste Of Time [View article]
    Come to Chicago and I will introduce you to plenty of real "day traders". Some individual operators and some with businesses structured like high technology firms (which they are). You don't know of day traders like the names you mentioned because the ideas don't scale well at that size - Day trading strategies are niches that do not require and can't use large amounts of capital - however can get a very high ROI on the capital that they do deploy. Has zero to do with investing. Day trading firms typically only use internal capital with no clients because there is no reason to share the profits as they are finite and limited and the ROI and consistency are very high.
    Sep 16, 2014. 09:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking Stock Quotes Regularly Is A Waste Of Time [View article]
    Its a great strategy for non-taxable or tax-deferred portfolios. Glad to hear it is working for u.
    Sep 15, 2014. 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking Stock Quotes Regularly Is A Waste Of Time [View article]
    The ability to profit from price fluctuations is actually much greater than u seem to realize. The issue is that the only way it works is when u are trading against others who are making mistakes, typically do to over-reaction. This means it is a limited opportunity and also that to do it well it takes quite a bit of study to identify consistently. In my opinion a trader who is well grounded in long term fundamentals is in a good position to select a pool of stocks to buy when the crowd for whatever reason drives price down quickly on flim-flam news of little long term significance. The expected value after such occurrences can be very high over the next few days to few weeks.
    Sep 15, 2014. 08:16 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
464 Comments
581 Likes