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Nat Stewart

 
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  • A 'Special Situation' Opportunity At National Beverage Equals Low Risk With High Reward [View article]
    Batman, I have a question for you now. Would you have predicted that the BEAM deal would go through at the price that it did?

    Somehow I highly doubt it. Perhaps rather than asking me questions, you need to check your own premises.

    I have listed many of the factors in my article that can and I believe will create a premium price for the FIZZ brands, if a deal does occur.

    It is not about the rear view mirror based models but rather how the future will be plus the ultra low cost of capital that presently exists in the marketplace.

    For example: Cost of capital is at this moment extraordinarily low for Japanese companies looking to make overseas acquisitions - Did this have something to do with the BEAM price tag? in my opinion, absolutely.

    This cost of capital factor, in a sense cost of capital arbitrage, can drive some of this stuff and I predict this will continue and even accelerate as companies look to invest before rates rise more significantly. We live in a world were corporations can borrow globally, if it suits them.

    I outlined this months ago in one of my prior FIZZ articles in bullet point form. Many Asian companies are very rich with USD right now and will be (and are) looking to invest in USD-based assets. It is about seeing the situation creatively, not textbook type financial models.

    I don't think a textbook financial analysis can make sense of most of what is going on today - one needs more tools than that, in my opinion.
    Jan 13 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FTD Companies - An Undervalued Spin-Off [View article]
    Maybe i am missing something? FTD has an amazon page too:

    http://amzn.to/1hMhIBJ
    Jan 12 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Behold A Pale Horse [View article]
    Very entertaining article. Reminded me of one of my long-time favorite films,
    http://bit.ly/KFWkk7
    Jan 8 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Real Threats To The Future Of Berkshire Hathaway (And Its Defense Against Them) [View article]
    It was not just that. It was that the contracts did not require additional margin or collateral - in other words no potential for a margin call. Found this article that explains my point http://read.bi/1k5q0Xn
    Dec 31 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Real Threats To The Future Of Berkshire Hathaway (And Its Defense Against Them) [View article]
    Buffett did something very smart with his derivatives positions. He wrote the contracts so that they only required settlement at the end of the term, with no intra-period margin or collateral calls possible. This is why in spite of these contracts, he was not badly hurt during 2008 (without this stipulation, I doubt he could have made his opportunistic investments during that time) My understanding is that new financial regs now ban this type of deal, so it is unlikely (unless I have missed something) that Buffett will be writing more such contracts.
    Dec 31 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Peter Schiff Wrong About Wal-Mart? [View article]
    Solid article. I always wonder why the people who advocate these higher wages never do the math.

    My guess is that the easiest way to boost lower end working wages would be to alter the supply/demand equation for that labor. The easiest way to do that would be to severely cut back or even stop low skill immigration. Workers do well when there is a shortage of the labor they wish to provide - end of story.

    This policy would effect companies within the same industry equally, whereas now a company that wants to pay a higher wage can't because their competitors will not do it and they will lose the competitive edge.

    I am not saying I think this is the correct policy, only that all things equal it would work to boost lower end wages better than other policy.

    Of course the downside from a "wages" perspective to this policy is that it would increase the return on investment of creating automated systems to do "basic" work - in other words even less lower end jobs. Yet I think that would take far more time, and would be easier for the population to adjust too.
    Dec 25 08:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Vs. Target: Where The Real Difference Lies [View article]
    Thank you Mr. Walston. Merry Christmas to you as well.
    Dec 24 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Special Situation' Opportunity At National Beverage Equals Low Risk With High Reward [View article]
    I agree with you about $22. I personally think high 20's to into the 30's is possible.
    Dec 24 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Vs. Target: Where The Real Difference Lies [View article]
    Very funny article, Nice job.

    The "scruffies" problem is a legitimate one for middle class and up shoppers. People who can afford better don't want to be around the criminally prone, disorganized and disheveled underclass that populate many areas. And note there is a substantial difference between hard working working-class folks and the disorganized underclass. It is the underclass that is the problem.

    I have read that wal-mart sales fluctuate with when government welfare cards "charge up" each month. In my area, wal-mart seems to have a free bus that drives in people in from the projects. Even though that Wal-Mart is in a nice area, I have never set foot in the store.

    When my family wants discounts we go to Costco. Only decent working class people and up have the foresight to buy a discount membership. Vehicles of all kinds (econo-boxes to late model Mercedes) are in the parking lot.

    The "card" keeps the scruffies out and improves the shopping experience. Great employees and customer service too. I have not set foot in a Wal-Mart in 15 years ago and with luck, will never have to again.
    Dec 24 09:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A 'Special Situation' Opportunity At National Beverage Equals Low Risk With High Reward [View article]
    Thanks Batman. The range is wide because I believe their is a good deal optionality that is hard to judge at this time. I weight the different values so that my final mid-range is near your 24-26 figure.
    Dec 23 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    Agree it is very tasty at this level. Honestly I just laugh when people say the market is efficient.

    Those who have inquired about my follow up article - yes it is in progress thank you for asking. FIZZ investors have been well rewarded for 20 years, all with an extremely low beta or market sensitivity. Becoming impatient now, in what looks to be the final few innings (if that) is very unwise IMHO. Love the pullback though.
    Dec 19 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    Time will tell. The relevant opinions that I have are contained within the article.
    Dec 12 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    That is a good way to think about it. I see it as a good long term situation with significant hidden option value - value that can't be seen in historical financial metrics. And yes, I realize you (batman) disagree with me on that. No need to repeat yourself ; )
    Dec 10 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    There was a very interesting article today in the WSJ titled, "Diet Soda's Glass Looks Half Empty".

    http://bit.ly/1iR0tR1

    I believe it is very relevant to the National Beverage situation, as it describes the market environment where a naturally flavored, zero calorie beverage that is already #1 in its market segment (LaCroix) could make a huge impact for a global firm - both in terms of PR and in terms of what it could do when "plugged in" to a global marketing and distribution system.
    Dec 9 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    Schumer, I would love to see your report. If you post it online when you class is done, let me know. Otherwise you could email me a copy. Thanks.
    Dec 7 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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