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Nat Stewart

 
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  • A 'Special Situation' Opportunity At National Beverage Equals Low Risk With High Reward [View article]
    Thanks Batman. The range is wide because I believe their is a good deal optionality that is hard to judge at this time. I weight the different values so that my final mid-range is near your 24-26 figure.
    Dec 23 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    Agree it is very tasty at this level. Honestly I just laugh when people say the market is efficient.

    Those who have inquired about my follow up article - yes it is in progress thank you for asking. FIZZ investors have been well rewarded for 20 years, all with an extremely low beta or market sensitivity. Becoming impatient now, in what looks to be the final few innings (if that) is very unwise IMHO. Love the pullback though.
    Dec 19 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    Time will tell. The relevant opinions that I have are contained within the article.
    Dec 12 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    That is a good way to think about it. I see it as a good long term situation with significant hidden option value - value that can't be seen in historical financial metrics. And yes, I realize you (batman) disagree with me on that. No need to repeat yourself ; )
    Dec 10 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    There was a very interesting article today in the WSJ titled, "Diet Soda's Glass Looks Half Empty".

    http://bit.ly/1iR0tR1

    I believe it is very relevant to the National Beverage situation, as it describes the market environment where a naturally flavored, zero calorie beverage that is already #1 in its market segment (LaCroix) could make a huge impact for a global firm - both in terms of PR and in terms of what it could do when "plugged in" to a global marketing and distribution system.
    Dec 9 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    Schumer, I would love to see your report. If you post it online when you class is done, let me know. Otherwise you could email me a copy. Thanks.
    Dec 7 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    Yes, that would be a good outcome too. I weigh towards a sale do to my assessment of the proxy statement message - the "happy ending"
    Dec 6 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    They will not be paying 17X ebita. If this occurs, they will be paying based on what the brands can do strategically and within their distribution and marketing systems. Completely different context. But what more can I say. I am betting that you will be pleasantly surprised.
    Dec 6 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    Thanks you.
    Dec 6 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    One more angle folks: It is not just the big American companies to consider as potential brand acquirers. Check out the web site for Tata Global Beverages.

    http://bit.ly/1iHKF2X

    "Welcome to Tata Global Beverages A global business on a mission to lead the world in ‘good for you’ beverages..."

    Tata Beverages is an extremely ambitious Indian beverage company (I read the last few annual reports) that is part of the massive and powerful Tata group. How valuable would LaCroix be to an emerging market brand with grand expansion plans? One that wants to "lead the world in 'good for you' Beverages"

    It is a different angle, but my point is that there is a sweet spot right now where many large global companies are scrambling to lead this strategically critical market segment.
    Dec 6 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    I think your assessment of the brands is out of date. You are considering how National Beverage was years ago, not the present situation.

    As I write this, LaCroix is testing on a small scale an extremely promising looking brand extension in my local market (Chicago). It tastes delicious, has a new can shape, and has very enticing graphics. My wife loves it. LaCroix is already the leader in it's market segment, and with creative product set to roll out, the future looks very bright to me.

    What could Pepsi, Coca Cola, Nestle, or Kraft (which is trying to "get bigger" in beverages) do with LaCroix within their huge marketing and distribution systems? In my opinion, they could turn the LaCroix brand into a global franchise. It would be a bold move, signaling new directions. LaCroix is already the number one product domestically within its market segment, a fact which you seem to discount.

    I believe LaCroix alone is worth more than National Beverage's entire current market cap. But time will tell - and I don't want to steal thunder from the larger article I am currently researching and putting together.

    Batman - If I am proven correct, I offer to send you a case of LaCroix's new Cherry-Lime (What I am drinking now!) to celebrate with.
    Dec 6 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    Batman,

    You don't get it. This is not an "earnings valuation" story - I basically stated that within the article. It is about the value of STRONG brands such as LaCroix when plugged into a global distribution and marketing system. Did you even read the article? The individual brands are worth more individually as part of a larger system than together within a small company. That is the real story.
    Dec 6 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roundy's: Making A Leveraged Bet (And It's Working) [View article]
    I am very happy about the decision to cancel the dividend as well. I am a big fan of Mariano's (We have one 2 blocks from our apartment in Chicago) and am thrilled to see it expanding in 11 new Chicago locations. Good value and a great shopping experience.
    Dec 5 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Dividend Will Be Huge [View article]
    I am not a cheerleader or a detractor. Only someone seeking information that is relevant to making an investment decision.

    So it sounds like your primary complaint is that Ebay no longer wants to be a venue for many small sellers. This might have been bad from a small seller perspective, but from a company perspective it might be a rational choice. There is a thing called the 80-20 rule. It might be that 20% of sellers generate all the profit, and 80% generate all of the headaches and overhead costs. So from an investor perspective I am not so sure this is a sign that "something is wrong inside of ebay" - and after all this is an investment focused site.
    Dec 5 08:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Dividend Will Be Huge [View article]
    Well, since you seem to believe that "something is going on inside of ebay" that is more than meets the eye, perhaps you should write the article - or at a minimum provide some clue as to what you are talking about.
    Dec 4 11:39 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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