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Nat Stewart

 
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  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    Yes, that would be a good outcome too. I weigh towards a sale do to my assessment of the proxy statement message - the "happy ending"
    Dec 6 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    They will not be paying 17X ebita. If this occurs, they will be paying based on what the brands can do strategically and within their distribution and marketing systems. Completely different context. But what more can I say. I am betting that you will be pleasantly surprised.
    Dec 6 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    Thanks you.
    Dec 6 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    One more angle folks: It is not just the big American companies to consider as potential brand acquirers. Check out the web site for Tata Global Beverages.

    http://bit.ly/1iHKF2X

    "Welcome to Tata Global Beverages A global business on a mission to lead the world in ‘good for you’ beverages..."

    Tata Beverages is an extremely ambitious Indian beverage company (I read the last few annual reports) that is part of the massive and powerful Tata group. How valuable would LaCroix be to an emerging market brand with grand expansion plans? One that wants to "lead the world in 'good for you' Beverages"

    It is a different angle, but my point is that there is a sweet spot right now where many large global companies are scrambling to lead this strategically critical market segment.
    Dec 6 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    I think your assessment of the brands is out of date. You are considering how National Beverage was years ago, not the present situation.

    As I write this, LaCroix is testing on a small scale an extremely promising looking brand extension in my local market (Chicago). It tastes delicious, has a new can shape, and has very enticing graphics. My wife loves it. LaCroix is already the leader in it's market segment, and with creative product set to roll out, the future looks very bright to me.

    What could Pepsi, Coca Cola, Nestle, or Kraft (which is trying to "get bigger" in beverages) do with LaCroix within their huge marketing and distribution systems? In my opinion, they could turn the LaCroix brand into a global franchise. It would be a bold move, signaling new directions. LaCroix is already the number one product domestically within its market segment, a fact which you seem to discount.

    I believe LaCroix alone is worth more than National Beverage's entire current market cap. But time will tell - and I don't want to steal thunder from the larger article I am currently researching and putting together.

    Batman - If I am proven correct, I offer to send you a case of LaCroix's new Cherry-Lime (What I am drinking now!) to celebrate with.
    Dec 6 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why National Beverage Might Have Just Become The Most Exciting 'Special Situation' Story In The Stock Market [View article]
    Batman,

    You don't get it. This is not an "earnings valuation" story - I basically stated that within the article. It is about the value of STRONG brands such as LaCroix when plugged into a global distribution and marketing system. Did you even read the article? The individual brands are worth more individually as part of a larger system than together within a small company. That is the real story.
    Dec 6 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roundy's: Making A Leveraged Bet (And It's Working) [View article]
    I am very happy about the decision to cancel the dividend as well. I am a big fan of Mariano's (We have one 2 blocks from our apartment in Chicago) and am thrilled to see it expanding in 11 new Chicago locations. Good value and a great shopping experience.
    Dec 5 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Dividend Will Be Huge [View article]
    I am not a cheerleader or a detractor. Only someone seeking information that is relevant to making an investment decision.

    So it sounds like your primary complaint is that Ebay no longer wants to be a venue for many small sellers. This might have been bad from a small seller perspective, but from a company perspective it might be a rational choice. There is a thing called the 80-20 rule. It might be that 20% of sellers generate all the profit, and 80% generate all of the headaches and overhead costs. So from an investor perspective I am not so sure this is a sign that "something is wrong inside of ebay" - and after all this is an investment focused site.
    Dec 5 08:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Dividend Will Be Huge [View article]
    Well, since you seem to believe that "something is going on inside of ebay" that is more than meets the eye, perhaps you should write the article - or at a minimum provide some clue as to what you are talking about.
    Dec 4 11:39 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roundy's: Making A Leveraged Bet (And It's Working) [View article]
    "Our PE majority owner... is sucking cash out of the business until it runs dry. The capital allocation strategy is clearly not designed for the long haul"

    After bleeding the company with an excessive dividend recap and payout level, the next trick in the pe playbook is to buy the debt as the company is forced into bankruptcy at a steep discount, and in that way re-establishing their equity position while wiping out other equity owners. Then they try to play the game all over again. Not that that will happen here, but something to be wary of when co-investing in a pe controlled firm.
    Nov 23 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Car-Mart Is 23% Overvalued [View article]
    Props to Mr. Vellucci - His article picked the recent turn perfectly. CRMT has not closed higher than the day of his article and is down near 17%.
    Nov 21 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FTD Companies - An Undervalued Spin-Off [View article]
    Good find. It appears that some non-cash expenses will be rolling off over the next year or so, which will improve the earnings visibility to quant screens.

    In my view the longer-term risk to this business model is disintermediation by Google - I have had zero issues doing a Google search and picking a local flower shop. Perhaps this method is too difficult/risky for most shoppers who prefer a known brand. Kind of like how many prefer Amazon over lower cost online retailers.
    Nov 13 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Car-Mart Is 23% Overvalued [View article]
    You are evaluating numbers as a finance guy without considering how this company grows and what the requirements for growth are. Since 2006 they have grown the dealer network by 50% (+43 dealers). Given this, consider the following from the latest annual report:

    "New dealerships are generally provided with approximately $1.5 million to $2.5 million in capital from the corporate office during the first few years of operation. These funds are used principally to fund receivables growth. After this start-up period, new dealerships can typically begin generating positive cash flow, allowing for some continuing growth in receivables without additional capital from the corporate office. As these dealerships become cash flow positive, a decision is made by senior management to either increase the investment due to favorable return rates on the invested capital, or to deploy capital elsewhere. This limitation of capital to new, as well as existing, dealerships serves as an important operating discipline. Dealerships must be profitable in order to grow and typically new dealerships are profitable within the first year of opening."
    Nov 8 08:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Car-Mart Is 23% Overvalued [View article]
    "Paying an enormous amount of interest for a beaten up, old car."

    What a misleading statement.

    America's Car Mart does not sell "beaten up" cars. They sell reasonably cared for vehicles at a fair price.

    The notion that 6-12 year old car vehicles are necessarily "beaten up" is a fallacy. In fact, cars in this age range are an extremely good value given how well cars are made today. 200K plus miles is no problem for a non-abused car in this age range. If I was poor I would happily (and reliably) drive a 12 year old Toyota, Honda or a Ford truck pickup truck.

    "Enormous amount of interest" relative to what? Interest rates are meaningless without the context of default rates and credit quality - and as such this qualifies as another misleading statement.

    Mentioning a bunch of regulatory "potential" issues that that are in no way specific to this company is just a silly scare tactic. A short seller could raise such issues for any company in a highly regulated sector.

    Throwing "stuff" against a wall to see if anything sticks is not a great analytical framework.
    Nov 8 08:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Research Corp.'s Class B Shares: The Low-Risk Double [View article]
    That is not a universal truth. It depends upon how good you are at understanding the motivations of another individual (the CEO) relative to the valuation of the company.

    Companies where everything is 100% clear are rarely significantly undervalued. And one does not have to be 100% certain to get an edge.
    Nov 4 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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