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Nat Stewart  

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  • Why U.S. Lime & Minerals Should Consider A $20 Per Share Special Dividend [View article]
    I for one do not think assessing a situation relative to conditions of relatively extreme irrationality is a great place to start. Certainly, under those conditions, most anything can happen. That is a fact of markets. However, consider the capital structure:

    mid year 2008:
    Cash 933K
    Debt (current + long term) 55M
    Shares outstanding: 6.3M

    As of last quarter 2015:
    Cash: 60.5M
    Debt (current): 15.4M (to be paid off year end 2015)
    Shares outstanding: 5.6M

    In 2008 cash less debt subtracted $.8.5 per share, today it adds $8.06 per share. Very few micro caps like this, quite frankly. I believe bats and I agree, we would love to take this one private.
    Jul 27, 2015. 09:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Lime & Minerals Should Consider A $20 Per Share Special Dividend [View article]
    Should have a bid in the market every day. Its a no-brainer way for the majority shareholder to gradually increase ownership at far below private market value.
    Jul 27, 2015. 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Lime & Minerals Should Consider A $20 Per Share Special Dividend [View article]
    For long term investors, the low price creates favorable optionality for the company - particularly if it is related to industry wide-weakness. They are financially in a perfect position to take advantage with an acquisition, or by buying their own shares at a discount.
    Jul 27, 2015. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The National Beverage Corp: Not As Refreshing As It Seems? [View article]
    Two things to keep in mind.

    First, The CEO is not overpaid in light of performance. Including special dividends, the stock has compounded at nearly 20%/yr for 20 years with a far below market Beta. It is an exceptional performance that few other companies in the public markets can match. Most don't get the logic of special dividends, so they miss much of the story.

    Second, the CEO owns 74% of the shares outstanding. So even if he was "overpaid" it is mostly his company, regardless and as such not very dilutive to shareholders. He could have taken the company private at any time and paid himself almost any amount the company could sustain, particularly given the low interest rates over the past 6 years, and he would have personally been better off.

    It is not possible to assess these things without taking the time to figure out the entire situation and resulting incentives.
    Jul 27, 2015. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The National Beverage Corp: Not As Refreshing As It Seems? [View article]
    I applaud the author's enterprising nature - not many undergraduate students are doing things like researching stocks and writing articles on Seeking Alpha. Other than that, not much good to say. The analysis is superficial and dead wrong in its conclusions.

    Wanted to add, though, a basic warning as to what is generally a bad idea: Never short a stock that is 74% owned by a billionaire, when that person is near retirement age, and one brand alone (The fastest growing brand in the fastest growing beverage sector - LaCroix in Sparkling Water) is potentially worth as much or more than the entire market cap to a larger competitor. Yet I see this fellow is not even short - figured, however, I would mention these facts, as a note of caution to anyone influenced by this analysis.
    Jul 26, 2015. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nathan's Famous: A 'See's Candy' Business Obscured By An Unusual Dividend Recapitalization - 45% Upside To Fair Value [View article]
    Why would I give an issue "lip service" when both my money and client's money is on the line? That would be both illogical and unethical.

    I weight the risks, and my sense of the probabilities guide me in determining what size position to take relative to a total portfolio. I always factor in the chance that I could be wrong or might have missed something - the presence of a risk factor does not automatically exclude an investment.
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors: A Bargain After Market's Panic Reaction [View article]
    Write up a full article and submit it - would look forward to reading.
    Jul 18, 2015. 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nathan's Famous: A 'See's Candy' Business Obscured By An Unusual Dividend Recapitalization - 45% Upside To Fair Value [View article]
    I think the company should be taken private, acquired, or some people with the skills and motivation to build out the franchise business at a higher level should take over. The Brand is worth a fortune.
    Jul 18, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nathan's Famous: A 'See's Candy' Business Obscured By An Unusual Dividend Recapitalization - 45% Upside To Fair Value [View article]
    alphadog99, great comment. I mostly agree with it. One thought though. To assess if an action is rational or not, we first must understand the intended objective of that action.

    I don't mean this as criticism of your comment - but I would never assume that these smart people are irrational - it is much more probable that if an act seems irrational, we are not seeing the objective.
    Jul 17, 2015. 08:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Giving Utilities Credit When Tax Credit Is Due [View article]
    Bruce, that yours is a philosophical question. I think Williams was describing the system as it exists.

    The truth is, the government and tax dollars are involved in pretty much every single major industry. Every area competes for tax credits and new development aid of all kinds, its just how the system works, like it or not.
    Jul 17, 2015. 05:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Female Health Company Transitioning To New Strategy, But Receiving Legacy Business Valuation [View article]
    If we are throwing around suggestions, I think we need a two pronged approach:

    1.) Give Rihanna the pop star 2+M stock options and have her do for the product what 50 Cent did for Vitamin Water. He used to throw bottles into the croud at his concerts, drink it in videos, etc. That is a real program to alter consumer perceptions and build awareness that would WORK.

    2.) Given the under-reported Aids and STD crisis that ruins lives and costs the health system a fortune to treat, the system needs to be proactive - buy these female condoms for the needy populations who can't afford them. It is very simple math - it will save lives and taxpayer dollars.

    Now that the stock is so cheap I am not convinced that an acquisition is the saving grace that people want it to be. They can't afford to buy very much. They need to get seriously innovative with what they have. This needs to go back above 10, at a minimum, it just takes leadership and innovative thinking.
    Jul 17, 2015. 04:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consolidated-Tomoka - Why I See 70% Potential Upside Over The Next 12 Months [View article]
    I honestly don't think it will be that high - That would be very surprising to me. Maybe i'm wrong, but I am planning on quite a bit less than that. we will see.
    Jul 16, 2015. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Better Than The Berkshire Hathaway? Danaher's Value [View article]
    Good article. Danaher makes a great case study in shareholder value creation that is at odds with so many other conglomerates. Another amazingly overlooked conglomerate with a tremendous shareholder return since going public is Roper Corp. (ROP). One of the investment "thought models" I use is to attempt to find these types of companies when their market cap is still only a few billion or less.
    Jul 14, 2015. 03:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Female Health Company Transitioning To New Strategy, But Receiving Legacy Business Valuation [View article]
    The distressed share price has created an immense opportunity for a hungry, highly entrepreneurial CEO.
    Jul 14, 2015. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Female Health Company Transitioning To New Strategy, But Receiving Legacy Business Valuation [View article]
    Only issue I can think of is if the large account receivable from Brazil is still unpaid - at last quarter end it was 50% of current assets.
    Jul 14, 2015. 12:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
633 Comments
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