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Nat Stewart  

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  • Cable One Spin-Off: Rollup Or Rolled Up [View article]
    Great write up, really appreciate it.
    Jul 6, 2015. 07:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Planet Fitness IPO: Investors Can Pump Up Their Portfolio [View article]
    A gym business insider told me that the secret to a highly profitable gym is to have a large group of "casual fitness" people to sign up (typically in January) using a credit card with auto-re billing, and soon enough most of them stop going to the gym and burdening the facility. They then stay on as members for years, as paying for the membership lets people feel they "might get fit at any time" even though they never work out again. This is how one small Gym can service so many customers on such a small fee and earn large profits.
    Jul 6, 2015. 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners: Answering Questions About Its Debt And Distribution [View article]
    They invested 320M for 20%, now just bought 80% for 50M? I wonder who the White Oak seller was. Was it a partnership with another coal company?
    Jul 6, 2015. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Beating The S&P 500 Is So Hard, And Why Even Protecting Against A 10-15% Correction Matters [View article]
    Beating the average investor in an S&P 500 index fund is much easier than beating the index itself. This "investor vs. investor" perspective is much more of an "apples to apples" comparison - Most Index investors badly trail the performance of the funds they invest in.
    Jul 5, 2015. 09:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Scanning The SA Family For Alpha: Rosenose [View article]
    The market is the only judge. I for one don't write for the accolades of readers, though I very much appreciate the small number of informed ones.
    Jul 4, 2015. 07:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Post-spinoff, Cable One maintaining rural focus [View news story]
    Anyone want to speculate what multiple this might be acquired for?
    Jul 2, 2015. 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Female Health Company Transitioning To New Strategy, But Receiving Legacy Business Valuation [View article]
    Yea they have an NOL to work through. Once again though, their investor relations does not do a good job pointing this out to people. Their press release seems to have done nothing to ameliorate investor concern.
    Jul 2, 2015. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Lime & Minerals Should Consider A $20 Per Share Special Dividend [View article]
    the only thing that puzzles me is why the major shareholder does not buy this out. Hopefully they have some leads on substantial acquisitions or they are considering a major capital return as I suggested in this article. Its a good situation.
    Jul 2, 2015. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Planet Fitness IPO: Investors Can Pump Up Their Portfolio [View article]
    I used to work out in the very first Planet Fitness in Dover, NH. I thought it was a dump with lousy service and a silly marketing pitch that catered to wimps. It was less than a mile from my apartment, which was the only reason I went there.

    To say that I am startled that their formula caught on like wildfire is an understatement. Good for them, though. I think I see the founder's Ferrari every time I visit Portsmouth.
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Balchem Corp. - Short-Term Thinkers Create A Buying Opportunity In This World Class 'Compounder' [View article]
    To Pivotal Research's credit, their downgrade was more impactful than I expected on Balchem's share price. Most no-name firms that issue downgrades create only a very temporary price impact, literally rebounding within the next day or two. Regardless, I just added a bit to my position.
    Jul 1, 2015. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spark Networks, Owner Of JDate And ChristianMingle, Is Getting Its Groove Back [View article]
    Ross, Too bad they didn't listen to you years ago.

    The funny thing is at the current price shutting down mingle would make perfect sense. If they could just hold Jdate steady I think it could have pre-tax income (including investment in improvements) of near 12M per year. Given they have NOL tax assets of $35.2 million and $46.1, plus 5M in Israel, they would get that cash pretty much tax free for at least 3 years. Once again if they could maintain that biz, it might be worth at least 2X the current price. It would be a great private company.
    Jul 1, 2015. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spark Networks, Owner Of JDate And ChristianMingle, Is Getting Its Groove Back [View article]
    I think they need to be very careful with Mingle. If they can target some select areas and groups and focus the add spend and get network effects, that would be ideal and with luck, viable. I see no reason non-religious Christians would prefer this small site to something with match, where one can find a much larger number of such people on a better platform.

    However at this point if they put Mingle in run-off mode and focused 100% on making a quality Jdate product and growing that business again, it would be a very viable and IMO less risky option. This option should be in the back of their mind at all times to weight investment in mingle against. It would allow for a substantial cost savings in overhead and showcase the great economics of that business, which have been neglected and buried for ages.
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spark Networks, Owner Of JDate And ChristianMingle, Is Getting Its Groove Back [View article]
    Good article.

    The entire strategy of looting Jdate to fund "christian mingle" was one of the worst investment decisions I have seen a corporation make in my life, other than what occurs in the mining and natural resource sectors.

    They nearly ruined a terrific brand and business with their silly pie in the sky theory, and I can't help but think the new crew, while a vast improvement, still does not quite get it.

    When people choose a niche dating website vs. a generic one, it means something specific - they want to find someone from their same cultural, ethnic, racial, even class background, 9 times out of 10.

    The fact is, "Christian" today is too broad a brush to fulfill this need in any useful way. It is a generic term. People who are marginal Christians are happy on generic dating sites. They need to find the sub-groups of Christians who are most responsive and where the best network effects can take place, and start by targeting those groups. It is Christians who are most eager to preserve their heritage and culture that are a good market, as the marginal Christians can find countless marginal Christians on any random dating site.

    Meanwhile ,the world has moved on. TInder is the rage with young people. Jews have their own version and Ive heard its catching on like wildfire, supplanting Jdate. I hope they can turn the ship around but I'm still concerned that they are taking half measures and not realizing the extent to which the original "growth" strategy was flawed.
    Jun 29, 2015. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners: Answering Questions About Its Debt And Distribution [View article]
    If i calculated it correctly the total $$ payout (including ARLP and the GP's ADRs, annualizing last distribution) is around 339M. ARLP getting 196M and the IDRs getting 143M. That compares to 547m DCF, which gives the 1.6 coverage ratio.
    Jun 29, 2015. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Balchem Corp. - Short-Term Thinkers Create A Buying Opportunity In This World Class 'Compounder' [View article]
    They have a great long term track record of making accretive acquisitions. They sat on something like 200M in cash and let it build to that level before the purchase of Sensory, which took allot of discipline IMO. I think it is highly likely that they only pulled the trigger on something after a great deal of thought and weighing vs. alternatives. It will be a growth platform for them. Return on invested capital has been strong for a long time. Ive been reading about the choline risks, competitive risks, etc since i first bought the stock at $14 per share. Certainly, there are competitive pressures like any industry. They will deal with that. There will be business fluctuations. I think the new CEO looks great. They will have to compete as they have done in the past. As to the other stuff, the 10K states they have 16 patents that are important, however they don't feel that is a key to their competitive advantage.

    The research firms love to ambush these small stocks with ratings changes because it has an undue price impact to the benefit of (typically) clients who get reports before they do their PR releases. Nothing new there. Anyone who follows small stocks sees the same thing play out, over and over again.
    Jun 25, 2015. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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