Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Nat Stewart  

View Nat Stewart's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Nathan's Famous: Not So Famous Anymore [View article]
    Right question, wrong answer.
    Aug 24, 2015. 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nathan's Famous: Not So Famous Anymore [View article]
    Excellent comment. The only thing I will add is that with near 60M of cash and securities available, they could potentially buy back a substantial % of the company over the coming months at a nice discount to fair value, while still leaving a very large margin of safety/cash cushion given the debt load.
    Aug 24, 2015. 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nathan's Famous: Not So Famous Anymore [View article]
    No mention of the near 60M in cash and securities on hand, the 20% y/y growth in the revenue of their licensing deal with John Morel, or that in one month (June) they bought back nearly 3% of their market cap. The company does not need cash to invest, it is a royalty and franchising business. It is very asset/capital light. You missed the story completely, kind of like you did with your article on National Beverage.
    Aug 23, 2015. 05:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LaCroix Sparkling Water Is A Billion Dollar Brand Hiding Within A Billion Dollar Market Cap Company - 45% Upside [View article]
    Thank you, I appreciate it.
    Aug 14, 2015. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LaCroix Sparkling Water Is A Billion Dollar Brand Hiding Within A Billion Dollar Market Cap Company - 45% Upside [View article]
    Actually, his point was not fair.

    The starting or present value used was an average of the present STRATEGIC ACQUISITION VALUE as judged by three knowledgeable investors. My model was simply a thought experiment to consider how this strategic acquisition value might grow over the next few years.

    I did NOT start with a discount or cash flow model that would have incorporated in growth rates. To ignore or miss this distinction is to ignore and miss the entire focus and context of the article.
    Aug 13, 2015. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LaCroix Sparkling Water Is A Billion Dollar Brand Hiding Within A Billion Dollar Market Cap Company - 45% Upside [View article]
    Good question. I am not all that enthused by the prospects of SodaStream. I think at this point, consumers want a "product" and a "brand" that means something in terms of perceptions. They don't want a do-it-yourself home-brew style operation.

    On the other hand, I think SodaStream would do well to approach National Beverage and attempt to licence the LaCroix flavors and name. It might do wonders for their business - if mutual terms could be agreed upon.
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LaCroix Sparkling Water Is A Billion Dollar Brand Hiding Within A Billion Dollar Market Cap Company - 45% Upside [View article]
    Gross margins should be higher as it contains no sweetener, which is relatively expensive. It is better all around. Thank you for commenting.
    Aug 12, 2015. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LaCroix Sparkling Water Is A Billion Dollar Brand Hiding Within A Billion Dollar Market Cap Company - 45% Upside [View article]
    The fellow was arguing against the entire theory and practice of growth investing. The current fair price does not and cannot always factor in all of the benefits of future growth. The real world does not work that way.

    Here is an example. One of my best friends was offered the opportunity (by Goldman) to invest in Facebook when it was still a private company, at a fair valuation of something like 15B. At that time, that seemed like a fair (even generous!) price. The market cap is now what, 265B?)

    Its not the theory that matters - it is what people are WILLING TO PAY. That is what matters. That perspective is what, "makes the money".

    I am on vacation. Please, folks, I don't want to discuss the theory of growth investing.

    From this point forward I will only respond to comments that have something worthwhile to say -"value added" with regards to the LaCroix hypothesis. Thanks.
    Aug 12, 2015. 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LaCroix Sparkling Water Is A Billion Dollar Brand Hiding Within A Billion Dollar Market Cap Company - 45% Upside [View article]
    It makes a great deal of sense. If you don't agree, great. I could care less.
    Aug 12, 2015. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LaCroix Sparkling Water Is A Billion Dollar Brand Hiding Within A Billion Dollar Market Cap Company - 45% Upside [View article]
    Folks, there was a terrific article on LaCroix published at BloombergBusiness just this morning.

    http://bloom.bg/1h2Ys5n

    I have submitted a re-edit of this article which includes a reference and link to this new bloomberg article, which should be up soon.
    Aug 12, 2015. 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mesa Labs: Investor Capitulation Has Created A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    100% return in 10 months... Not half bad.
    Aug 7, 2015. 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued Balchem Remains On Growth Track [View article]
    Great article. Sceptics/shorts/analysts over-focused on the risk in the industrial segment without taking enough time to understand how the company has changed and diversified. In terms of P/E, keep in mind that this company has a massive amount of acquisition related amortization that some (myself included) do not view as a true economic expense, but rather a nice tax shield (a benefit). The new CEO "gets" the company, has allot of experience doing investments and acquisitions - to me everything looks very solid for continued above-market returns over the next 3+ years.
    Aug 7, 2015. 08:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Balchem Corp. - Short-Term Thinkers Create A Buying Opportunity In This World Class 'Compounder' [View article]
    Sorry I didn't get back to you sooner. I think the new CEO looks like a terrific choice. Tons of experience leading Chemical companies and making acquisitions at Ashland (ASH). He gets the business and the game plan. It will likely be a huge chance for this experienced executive to build allot of personal equity, so I'm on board.

    In other news, a very solid quarter. Those who felt it was all about the pending industrial Choline decline hopefully learned something - this is not the same company it was just a few years ago - the Choline story was overplayed relative to growth in other areas.
    Aug 6, 2015. 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nathan's Famous: A 'See's Candy' Business Obscured By An Unusual Dividend Recapitalization - 45% Upside To Fair Value [View article]
    A very solid quarter. Most impressively, the John Morrell licencing revenue was up 20% y/y. The company should buy back 25-35 million of stock right now (Which would still leave a huge cushion, a good idea given the debt load). The stock continues to be severely undervalued, in my opinion. I encourage all shareholders to contact the company and advocate for the buyback idea.

    ----------------------

    JERICHO, N.Y., Aug. 5, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Nathan's Famous, Inc. (NASDAQ: NATH) today reported results for the first quarter of its 2016 fiscal year that ended June 28, 2015.

    For the fiscal quarter ended June 28, 2015:

    Revenues increased by 11.1% to $30,654,000, as compared to $27,585,000 during the thirteen weeks ended June 29, 2014;
    Income from operations increased by 12.3% to $7,616,000, as compared to $6,779,000 during the thirteen weeks ended June 29, 2014;
    Adjusted EBITDA, as subsequently defined, increased by 10.9% to $8,257,000 as compared to $7,447,000 for the thirteen weeks ended June 29, 2014;
    Net income was $2,310,000, as compared to $4,071,000 for the thirteen weeks ended June 29, 2014; and
    Earnings per diluted share were $0.50 per share, as compared to $0.89 per share for the thirteen weeks ended June 29, 2014.
    Aug 6, 2015. 08:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nathan's Famous, Inc. Reports First Quarter Results [View article]
    Looks solid. Lets hope the company is using their massive cash pile to bring in some stock.
    Aug 5, 2015. 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
650 Comments
761 Likes