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Nat Stewart

 
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  • 5 Reasons Tesla Motors Will Thrive [View article]
    "It would be very tough for the oil industry to survive if they had to use their own money to pay for the security provided by the US government"

    I have always found this argument to be flawed. Why exactly does the US government have the most powerful military?

    It is because we have the largest, most powerful economy. Why do we have the most powerful economy? Because our large, developed businesses and corporations are highly productive and do a great job creating and managing valuable property interests - and this includes the military industrial complex.

    The reality is that in the absence of a democratic government or even direct individual taxation, Our key industries (Finance, Energy, Drugs, manufacturing, insurance, agriculture, etc) could fund the military industrial complex and enforce their property rights quite effectively - perhaps even at a significant profit relative to current relationships.

    Bottom line, i don't think it is is "Government" that subsidizes oil companies or heavy industry, it is industry that subsidizes government and the world's most powerful military.

    Regardless, military and economic power are intertwined by necessity, and no where is this more true than in the global economy.
    Mar 22 03:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Paper World Of Brookfield Asset Management [View article]
    Ted,

    I doubt Marty Whitman's highly regarded Third Avenue Value fund or the legendary value investor Lou Simpson, who each have more than 5% of their portfolio (as of 12/31) in the BAM, relied on the advice of Canadian brokerage firms. Same goes for star value investor Tom Gayner of Markel, who (as of 12/31) had just under 5% of the portfolio in BAM.

    I personally would rate the credibility of such investors as quite a bit higher than Canadian brokerage firms, who for reasons you mentioned might be biased.
    Mar 12 11:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heinz May Be A Buffett Stock, But This Isn't A Buffett Price [View article]
    You can't understand Buffet with the mentality of a small investor. The nominal value of this purchase will be essentially meaningless within just a few years, never mind how it will look after 10.

    Buffett can redeploy the cash flow, influence policy, and has a very low cost of capital. Just keep track of how much cash he takes out of this company over the next five years and redeploys - It is what he does. Rinse and repeat.
    Feb 14 03:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury Bull Market Is Over; Inflation Will Take Center Stage [View article]
    Hard assets are not always the best way to hedge or profit from inflation. Buffett discusses this in one of his essays, and I attempted to expound his principles in this article, for anyone interested. Basically he likes companies that can raise prices without having much need for new capital investment under the inflationary conditions. John Malone's spin on this concept is to be able to raise prices while debt outstanding is being devalued. Both approaches profit from inflation.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 7 04:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mariano's Is A Breath Of Fresh Air For Roundy's [View article]
    I live Just a few blocks from Mariano's newest Chicago location. Everyone in the neighborhood is crazy about it! My entire building raves about it. All the families love to shop there. I go to the store on a Saturday night and it is Jammed full.

    They have mini stations within the store, a wine bar (often quite busy at night) a nice food court. Employees are fantastic, very polite and helpful. So far the "people factor" has really made this innovative store shine. Everyone I have talked to (myself included) thinks it will soon run the Dominick's a few blocks away out of business (We have not been there since Mariano's opened).

    My family almost never goes to Whole Foods anymore. In terms of positioning, I would say it is between whole foods and a regular grocery store. At whole foods you are often surprised at how much it costs, at Mariano's you can get allot of quality stuff, but are surprised by the lower than expected price. Even my two kids are crazy about going there. On the first floor they have a coffee/ice cream area, and last night I noticed a bunch of people down there drinking glasses of wine.

    Overall the customer experience I have experienced has been phenomenal, and the neighborhood reception has been extremely positive. Just a great positive energy from this store.
    Dec 23 06:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 Pick: Buy Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    I am not an IBM expert (hope someone who knows the stock chimes in) but I thought their big thing now was outsourcing corporate services and software.
    Dec 20 08:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Insider Buying Heads List Of Reasons To Buy Cheap Herbalife [View article]
    If the company is legit, the CEO should take some of the massive $$ the has cashed out in recent years and announce a massive purchase. Next they need to announce a massive acceleration of the share buyback. I do not know this company, but if it is indeed legit the company and insiders have been handed an opportunity.
    Dec 20 01:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ellington Financial: The Best Mortgage 'REIT' At A Healthy Discount To Book Value [View article]
    The Nobel Laureates at LTCM were window dressing for the marketing department.
    Dec 19 10:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Asian-Americans are the highest-income, best-educated and fastest-growing racial group in the United States," the Pew Research Center wrote in recent massive study. The WSJ discusses the rise of Asian-Americans in a weekend essay, saying that they "have become the immigrant group that most embodies the American promise of success driven by will and resolve." [View news story]
    There was actually a pretty interesting study done on admissions to elite Universities done within the last few years. It found that when controlling for objective factors like SAT scores, non-elite (meaning usually rural and christian) whites are the most discriminated against and underrepresented group in the United States. Basically, the slots that would go to them tend to go to "diversity" candidates who on average have much lower objective performance. The entire picture of America that so many people have is just flat out wrong and contrary to facts.
    Oct 28 02:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Asian-Americans are the highest-income, best-educated and fastest-growing racial group in the United States," the Pew Research Center wrote in recent massive study. The WSJ discusses the rise of Asian-Americans in a weekend essay, saying that they "have become the immigrant group that most embodies the American promise of success driven by will and resolve." [View news story]
    The notion of "minority" or "majority" is rapidly losing its cache or significance do to economic globalization. You are a "minority" or member of the "majority' only relative to where you happen to be standing or living. For example many Asian-Americans are "minorities" only because recent generations chose to move to a country founded by white people. My understanding is that "Asians" actually make up the global-majority human population. Indeed, white people are rapidly losing their position as the "majority' in this country (USA) and in many other countries that they founded. Look at Canada, with a huge land mass and relatively small population. I highly doubt it will be a majority white or European derived population in 50 years.

    If I moved to Asia I would find myself to be a minority. So In what sense am I a member of "the majority?" Only in the sense that my ancestors were the founding population of this particular country - and this notion is not going to hold up for much longer.

    As a side note, the notion "blue eyed" people have some type of inside track (as someone above suggested) in America is a joke. We are in fact a rapidly shrinking minority who will likely be a mere novelty in the not to distant future. We have always been a mere novelty outside of Northern-European derived countries and make up just a small percent of the earth's population. Maybe we should band together to get special perks? Ha ha.

    In terms of relative success, I believe white people are suffering from the problem identified in the movie "Idiocracy" Time will tell.
    Oct 28 10:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extremely Simple Trend-Following Trading Models Have Dominated Buy-And-Hold [View article]
    It was evaluated as an on/off type of signal. You would buy the first buy signal you get, then sell the next sell signal you get, etc. It might have been more clear if I wrote something like, "Long if month end close higher than X periods back" rather than "buy".
    Oct 11 11:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extremely Simple Trend-Following Trading Models Have Dominated Buy-And-Hold [View article]
    This study was using monthly data, so It would not require any trades that are less than one month. Thanks for commenting.
    Oct 6 05:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extremely Simple Trend-Following Trading Models Have Dominated Buy-And-Hold [View article]
    Hi Roger, I would suggest caution with regards to using a similar rule set to sell short. I have found that at least for stock indexes, it is much more difficult to develop short-selling models that work in both testing an real time trading. Thanks for commenting.
    Oct 6 05:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: United-Guardian Earnings Reveal Some Weakness [View article]
    I would like to see them team up with Guthy-Renker or a similar company that has mastered marketing and selling to make a product line (or customize an existing line) that can really explode the sales.

    http://bit.ly/1r6X9FK

    Just imagine what that type of plan could do to the stock price of a small company like this.
    Aug 12 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: United-Guardian Earnings Reveal Some Weakness [View article]
    The company needs a real marketing person or team that is aggressive. They are sitting on a bunch of high potential products and in my opinion not getting the job done with regards to getting them to market adequately. As I have followed the company over the past 4 years or so, I have admired their strong products and economic returns, but grown increasingly frustrated by the fact that their seems to be a complete lack of marketing talent. There is enormous untapped potential within this company that they are not realizing.

    Regardless, the price swings are in my opinion a part of short-term market myopia. If you only buy when things look "great" you only buy when a stock is fully valued or more likely overvalued. All the short term thinkers piled in a few months ago, now they are puking their positions. A wonderful strategy for losing.
    Aug 11 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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