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Nat Stewart

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  • Is Cadillac's ELR A Tesla Competitor? Maybe [View article]
    "..the ELR has LED light-blade tail lights with the word Cadillac precision etched into the plastic. Tesla doesn't have those. The ELR offers optional 20" aluminum wheels with "precision painted pockets"

    I have realized what the fundamental problem is for the Cadillac:

    If Tesla came out with their own LED blade tail lights with precision etching and the paint pocket wheels, and then upped the ante with finely detailed Corinthian leather seats and a Landau vinyl roof with laser detailed chrome accents....

    It would be game, set, and match for Tesla. Game over.
    Oct 18, 2013. 06:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: An Ethical Short [View article]
    "but 90 percent would fail no matter how hard they try. This is part of the business model."

    That is part of the business model for most all commission only sales opportunities. It is built into the economics of the commission-only business model.

    Consider commission-only life insurance. Most flunk out after a few sales to the "natural market" (friends and family) while a few stars stick around - And those stars often become sales managers (recruiters) rather than directly prospect themselves. In other words the recruitment focus/high failure rate thing is not at all unique to Herbalife or even to MLM schemes.
    Oct 5, 2013. 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: An Ethical Short [View article]
    That seems like a valid point to me herbs.
    Oct 5, 2013. 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: An Ethical Short [View article]
    I think most participants know such things are a uneconomic schemes, but they are greedy and hope they are in early enough to make money and leave later participants as the bag-holders. That is the basic logic of most self-reinforcing bubbles that are not tied to underlying economics. People blame others only when it turns out they are left with the losses they had hoped would fall onto others.

    There is so much disagreement on Herbalife (and both sides seem to have solid arguments) that to me it is clear it is a matter of opinion. Many, many people feel Herbalife is a good company, a good brand, that helps people lose weight with real products and support groups.

    The distribution method might seem silly, even foolish to some intelligent people, but the fact is many people enjoy participating in these things.
    Oct 4, 2013. 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interactive Brokers: Looking For A New Broker, I Found A Compelling Investment [View article]
    Ownership of IBG LLC is split between Interactive Brokers Group (the public company, owns 11.9% economic interest) and IBG Holdings LLC (88.1%, not a public company). The following graphic from IBKR's investor site diagrams the relationship:
    Oct 2, 2013. 08:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued Philip Morris Offers A 4% Yield Backed By Strong Buybacks [View article]
    You can't understand the value of these long term fixed-rate financings without taking account of what will happen in time do to even moderate inflation. With a rate of inflation similar to what we have had over the past 20 years, a principal amount due in 20 years will lose about 40% of its real value. With regards to the interest payments, the effective interest rate (do to tax effects plus current inflation) is far lower than the nominal rate. So long it is amply covered by cash flows with a conservative margin, these financings are a major steal for equity owners, and I mean that literally.
    Aug 30, 2013. 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • National Research Corporation: Follow The Incentives [View article]

    You are making all these hypothetical statements about what he might or might not do, then wonder "how it could be legal".

    Well, he has not done those things! The share class issue itself and the motives behind it are actually fairly straightforward, as demonstrated by this article.

    Why a guy with a good business, majority control, very wealthy, by all accounts an upstanding CEO in terms of shareholder value, would suddenly in the back half of his career choose to become a master stock manipulator, etc, basically put at jeopardy his long, hard one reputation - to me it just does not make sense. This guy has a track record. A massive deviation is possible but not probable. I am a betting man and I have to say I bet against that outcome.

    I believe that ultimately we will find that there is not a deep or hidden scheme. It is what it is.
    Aug 29, 2013. 03:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Huge Share Class Arbitrage Opportunity In National Research Corporation Class B Shares [View article]
    Implied total market cap through the B shares is currently $245M in after hours trading and through A's is 745M. Pre-recap market cap was around 415M. I'm not sure why people find this hard to evaluate - would love to see some facts that I am missing.
    Aug 7, 2013. 05:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Presents A Terrific Shorting Opportunity [View article]
    Sell, you are confirming my point, not contradicting it.
    Aug 6, 2013. 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Dividend Disappointment: Don't Panic - Yet [View article]
    I enjoy reading your articles on Intel, but I must admit sometimes the Intel story begins to remind me of the television program, "lost".
    Aug 4, 2013. 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Balchem: Boring But Beautiful [View article]
    Sometimes I find stocks that I decide to "tie myself to the mast" with and either make a bundle over time, or have the investment not pan out and perhaps suffer a large loss. Right now BCPC is one of those stocks for me, I hope that I never have to sell. Yes let's stay in touch. I noticed that I like allot of the stocks you cover.
    Jul 31, 2013. 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Balchem: Boring But Beautiful [View article]
    My guess, Philip, is that investors are pleased by what Mr. Rossi said in the conference call. He confirmed that they have definite acquisition target(s) they are after, and also that the pharmaceutical program is on track. If anyone else picked anything else up, please chime in. Putting that cash to use in a business that meets the company's IRR target would be a huge boost to future earnings.
    Jul 31, 2013. 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Lime & Minerals: Long Reserve Life, High Barriers To Entry And Substantial Free Cash Flow [View article]
    If you found the article interesting it served its purpose.

    My editing process with this article was unusual because I wrote most of it last year but never completed and published it. I decided to publish it after I saw Mr. Leonard's article, as I felt I had a few things to add. I revised it to update data and remove some of the content that I felt duplicated his efforts - For example my valuation stuff was very similar to his, so I figured interested parties could get that (plus an economic analysis that I think makes sense) by reading his article - which I linked to within my article.
    Jul 12, 2013. 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Aristocrat Investing [View article]
    I wonder how much of the outperformance of the the dividend index is do to the fact that it is equal weighted, as even a regular equal weighted index that does not factor in aristocrat status has outperformed, at least theoretically (without taxes and other costs). Looking at the dividend index relative to the equal weighted SP index would be more "apples to apples"
    Jul 4, 2013. 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Whole Foods: This Stock Yields 6.4% And Could Jump 250% [View article]
    My family is particularly keen on the pretzel rolls they make in the Mariano's bakery for use as hamburger buns. Tonight, my wife stopped by the bakery to pick some up, and they were all out.

    The store manager happened to notice her looking for something, and inquired. He asked the bakery, "when will they be ready" and was told "20 minutes" Rather than think she might wait around, they DELIVERED the piping hot buns to our house for free. Talk about customer service! Awesome store, great management and employees too.
    Jun 29, 2013. 09:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment