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Natan Hayes

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  • Novo Gets Positive Vote From FDA For Anti-Obesity Treatment - Still A Long Road Ahead [View article]
    Good article, but I'm skeptical that most investors are in NVO for the obesity treatments. If you review their recent annual presentation you will notice their continued strength and dominance in the diabetes care market. That being said, they are relatively highly valued, but with their consistent and predictable revenue growth, earnings potential, and very high net margins ~30%, you can't find many better bargains from a risk-reward perspective. This has been one the best performing stocks of the past 10 years given its size, so I wouldn't be distracted by daily obesity treatments.. I've been long since Nov 12' and not going anywhere unless the world goes upside down (in which case we'll likely have more dire problems). Short at your own risk.
    Sep 14 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Tower Rises Above All Others [View article]
    I just wanted to send my follow-up recommendation since I wrote this article 1 year ago.

    AMT was at 70.16 when I wrote this article, now after a 29.5% in almost 11 months, I think it is prudent to take some profits. I would not recommend selling 100% of your stake. However, trimming 30% and re-entering after the market prices interest rate risk in too harshly would be a good idea.

    I think that would be found around $80-$82 based on chart patterns.

    Good luck.
    Jul 9 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: An Island Of Value In A Sea Of Overpriced Stocks [View article]
    WELL since March 11th, the day I recommended that traders and even investors enter into a hedge type trade by going long old tech and short new tech, there has been quite some movement.

    IBM has risen nearly 4.5% in three weeks.
    SOCT (Social Media ETF) fell more than 8% in the same period.

    This is important not only because this trend is not over, but it may even create a bigger diversion in the next 3-6 months.

    Anyone disagree and why?

    Curious as to the rationale behind these very high FB, TWTR, YELP and LNKD P/S multiples that are almost certain to fall by 25% eventually. So either sales goes through the roof, which isn't happening, or they can keep acquiring companies with cheap financing to show artificial growth.

    Anybody notice FB on a buying spree recently?

    Can you guess what consensus revenue growth rate is for FB in 2014?

    Would you think to pay for 30% yoy growth? In this economy?!

    Buy at your own risk...
    Apr 3 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside To This Liquor Retailer [View article]
    Those bonds were ORIGINALLY priced to yield 5.85% and 6.75%, but since the price of them has very likely gone down since issuance, the yield is consequentially higher.

    Further, they are extremely leveraged with $136MM in debt and less than $5MM of cash on hand (Yahoo Finance).

    They have also been cutting their dividend. Looking at this from a strictly financial perspective I don't see how someone can be a long-term investor in this company.
    Mar 12 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside To This Liquor Retailer [View article]
    As Richard Berger said "The change in regulatory environment that has legalized beer, wine, and spirit sales in supermarkets is an existential threat to LQSIF. That is the single reason for the decline in price and reciprocal increase in yield.
    It is not difficult at all to quantify the estimated impact of this change. Many U.S. States have made the same transition in the past and all have had similar experience and financial impact metrics. It simply remains for the author or investor to do the math. I have and it is why I exited my position in LQSIF as the news made it likely this change would occur."

    Secondly, if you look at the equity beta over the past two yeas, and compute that into your cost of equity you will see that the WACC is above 6%.
    Mar 12 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: An Island Of Value In A Sea Of Overpriced Stocks [View article]
    When the next tech bubble does pop, IBM share price will suffer significantly less than some of the "smaller & nimbler craft.." because of the valuation discrepancies. If one has been long new tech and short old tech, I suggest they reverse that trade in the next 1-2 years.
    Mar 11 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: An Island Of Value In A Sea Of Overpriced Stocks [View article]
    I have a small position in IBM, I think it provides diversification in a relatively expensive market environment. That said, I think they are facing revenue declines because they have been price takers to clients in recent quarters. Their pricing models are being dis-inflated by the new products and services offered by many of the newer tech companies. This is forcing IBM to cut pricing to be competitive, and until this trend looks like it is going to weaken I am not increasing my position on a relative basis.
    Mar 11 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Upside To This Liquor Retailer [View article]
    Firstly, right when I pulled up a chart of this stock I instantly felt bad for anyone that bought it in recent years.

    The reason your "DCF analysis" gave you such a nice TP was because you used a WACC rate of 6%. Try plugging in 10-11% and let me know what you get. This exercise may even compel you to cut your losses, after you soon learn how this company will go bankrupt eventually as they will lose to grocery stores in the long run.
    Mar 11 11:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold Will Outperform Stocks This Year [View article]
    Just curious.. what do you base this analysis on, as it seems relatively arbitrary given the myriad of technical analyses available?
    Mar 11 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold Will Outperform Stocks This Year [View article]
    The excess money dynamic perpetuated via the Fed POMO has caused bond yields to go down, making equities more attractive from a valuation standpoint, increasing the incentive for investors to shy away from the few asset class with no yield i.e. commodities.
    Mar 11 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rig Your Returns With Transocean [View article]
    Earnings this week failed to provide the much needed boost to optimism that bullish shareholders we hoping for. Again we are seeing gross margins that are too low given the current rig environment. They should be cutting expenses at a faster rate given the continued deterioration of rig demand (no pun intended).

    I think that many of you that are bullish are trying to catch a falling knife. You are better off investing in a CXO, CHK, COG, PXD, which are stocks that will be higher than their current valuation in 1, 3, and 5 year periods. Simply, they are better positioned for the future gas supply dynamics, and RIG is better positioned for a pre shale/nat gas boom.

    My Advice:
    *Sell covered calls on your positions and collect your div and hope you don't lose too much on the principal investment.*
    Feb 27 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Has At Least 25% More Upside In 2014, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    Firstly, I have to admit that NFLX will likely continue higher into the $480 range before investors stop accepting mediocrity.

    Critically, every investor needs to remember that they should never try to block a speeding train that the entire investment world has boarded. However, this doesn't mean you have to ride the train just because its going fast either.

    My bearish sentiment on NFLX arises from the fact that they currently have little competitive moat, and although they may develop one in the future, investors have priced in the protection of an Iron-Dome around this company. Thus, the risk-reward is highly skewed not in the favor of the bulls.

    We must remember that the creation of content is almost ALWAYS more profitable than the distribution of content. Examples such as DIS (OTC:ESPN), VIAB (MTV, Nickelodeon), Lucas Films (Star Wars).

    While I don't expect the stock to crash I expect it to consistently disappoint investors going forward as gross margins don't increase as anticipated, and content costs eat away at "potentially" profitable opportunities.

    *Buy an 80 P/E stock ONLY because of the "Greater Fool Theory", NOT for ANY other reason!*
    Jan 28 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rig Your Returns With Transocean [View article]
    I enjoyed reading your article, but I feel you are mistaken about the connection between cause and effect. You have essentially premised your investment on a positive catalyst that will follow the lead of Ichan or Cooperman.

    I think Ichan's motive lies in levering up the company to help short-term investors in the form a 6%+ dividend yield.

    I think capacity will increase as rig count increases and demand slows. You have not accounted for the massive gas exploration going on in the United States, which does not require rigs.

    Disclosure: I made the same value proposition for RIG in Oct at $48 and then sold at $53.5 when those positive catalysts you mentioned came home to roost. I think those are things of the past and the high fixed costs as well as increased litigation expenses (thanks to a very Liberal EPA) will destroy shareholder value even as Ichan levers up the company in the short term.

    I recommend looking into NOV, they are a diversified player that is undervalued and do not have a similarly bleak future.
    Jan 28 09:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Novo Nordisk: Buy This 10 Year 27.47% CAGR Stock After Its Recent 16.94% Pullback [View article]
    This is the top holding in my portfolio, one of the best ways to capitalize on rising living standards on a global scale. I also noticed that share performance is spectacular in years following a weaker year. Good work.
    Dec 29 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Cheap Stocks In A Pricey Market [View article]
    I think UNH is of good value here. I think investors especially institutional, have taken a step back from this company at the apex of Obamacare uncertainty. I think as the government eventually gets their act together and more people are enrolled at higher rates, paying higher premiums with lower quality of care the insurance companies will benefit.
    Oct 30 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment