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Nate Sterling

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  • Seeking Alpha Strikes A Victory For Free Speech [View article]
    Congratulations SA! The only critique I would add is that since SA champions the cause of free speech then SA should have more strict guidelines for when to delete a comment critiquing an author's article, for example "only under highly unusual circumstances will a comment be deleted, such as when a comment is obviously and demonstrably false and defamatory". (I've read complaints of others' critiquing comments being unfairly deleted).

    The other thing I'd note is that SA's server must be bad or slow or having issues recently because loading other webpages is fast but for the past week or so loading SA's webpages has been slow and at times they haven't loaded at all.
    Jul 7 03:24 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Economy And Market Surging With Payroll Growth Highest In 15 Years [View article]
    Yes Chris, good analysis and informational article. I think you are spot on, the market and MU is looking increasingly bullish.
    Jul 4 03:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And On-Chip Memory [View article]
    Russ, thanks for the thought-provoking and informative article (as usual).

    If you don't mind I'd like your informed opinion on a couple questions that come to mind after reading your article.

    1) So correct me if I'm wrong but you're basically implying that Micron is at risk of losing much of their revenues and earnings because Intel might invade the DRAM space and take market share from Micron?

    2) Would they do this to their partner/joint venturer? (Seems like it would be Intel back-stabbing Micron to me).

    3) Are there any contractual/legal/patent issues which would prevent this from playing out the way you imply? Doesn't Micron own most of the DRAM patents and technology? Intel can't just "borrow" Micron's patents and technology because they are in joint venture, no?

    4) How far out in time are we talking about before you conceive this scenario might play out as you describe?

    5) Would your hypothetical future scenario likely involve Intel acquiring Micron as opposed to taking Micron's DRAM technology and competing against Micron?

    [If you are very long Micron like me this is definitely something to ponder].
    Jul 1 04:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: The Delusion Of Perpetual Motion [View article]
    John Hussman = the delusion of perpetual bearishness ;)
    Jun 30 11:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Update 6/28 -- Lower Q1 GDP,Markets Steady. [View instapost]
    Good article. There have always been worrywarts and chicken littles who are always looking at all the problems and potential problems in the world and who miss out on stocks which continue grinding higher. Reminds me of a quote I read from Peter Lynch who said more money has been lost in anticipating corrections and trying to avoid corrections than in all the corrections combined.
    Jun 28 07:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Central Banks Buying Stocks - The Beginning Of A Major Trend? [View article]
    If I'm a central banker I'd buy real assets like companies and real property with printed paper money hand over fist. What a deal!
    Jun 27 11:36 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My New Micron Price Targets [View article]
    Excellent article and analysis RSA. Bottom line, Micron is likely to be going higher to at least $43 per share 15 or so months out based on increasing sales volume and earnings and cost reductions and pricing power with secular bull growth tailwind for memory industry.
    Jun 27 02:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Random Is The Market, And What Does That Mean? [View article]
    Nice work Bob. My interpretation of the last chart is that on the shorter timeframes the market is quite random and you have basically a 50/50 chance of making money on any given day but the further you zoom out with your timeframes the higher the probabilities that the market will be positive and make you money if you're long. So the conclusion is "stocks for the long run" a la professor Jeremy Siegel.
    Jun 27 01:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pump The Brakes: Micron Is Worth $18 - $22 Per Share [View article]
    There are many incorrect assumptions in this article which is one of the most fallacious articles I've read and it makes me question whether the author is in a losing net short position and is desperately trying to ignite a short term selloff in Micron to avoid a major loss of money on a short term options straddle.

    First, the 40% tax rate is obviously incorrect. 35% is max tax rate in US and most of MU revenues can be taxed at lower overseas tax rates. MU has very smart tax attorneys and accountants who strategize to avoid taxes to the maximum extent allowed by law so you cannot reasonably conclude that MU's good job of avoiding taxes is a negative for the company, instead avoiding taxes to the maximum extent allowed by law is both good for the company and a fiduciary duty of the company vis-a-vis its shareholders.

    Also, comparing Micron to Coach and Bed Bath & Beyond is really meretricious. If you are going to compare Micron compare it to Sandisk or SK Hynix or some other company in the same memory storage industry. How did the author pick Coach and Bed Bath & Beyond as comparison companies when they are so different from Micron? Seems like the author may be using some outlandish examples to make a specious argument that Micron is a sell.

    Micron's price to forward earnings is about 10 which is substantially below the market average PE of about 18 and Micron is in a high-growth industry of memory storage devices with a PEG of .7 and ROE of 33% so Micron is not overvalued by any means. The operating metrics of Micron indicate Micron will be grinding higher to at least $40 within the next few years, quite possibly even in 2014.
    Jun 26 03:56 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Volatility Index Does Not Tell The Future [View article]
    Bob, thanks for the informative, statistically rigorous and reassuring article. I've been thinking intuitively that all this press about the VIX being so slow that it signals too much complacency is a bunch of BS. A low VIX only signals that there is low volatility and things are relatively calm, it says nothing about whether the market will continue going higher or will have a downturn. I would say though that absent an exogenous shock of sufficient magnitude Newton's first law of motion dictates that objects in motion tend to stay in motion and with the same speed and direction of motion. So the market with ups and downs along the way will tend to continue to grind higher absent an exogenous shock of sufficient magnitude.
    Jun 26 03:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On Micron Earnings To Be Released After The Close [View article]
    Emmanuel, I completely agree. Micron is still undervalued even after its large run-up. It will keep dieseling higher into 2015, just be patient because it will at times feel like riding a rollercoaster, not recommended for those with pacemakers or other heart problems.
    Jun 24 10:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On Micron Earnings To Be Released After The Close [View article]
    Russ, I sincerely hope you don't stop writing on SA because I am a follower of yours and look forward to reading your articles and I think you are usually one of the more insightful contributors and you made me good money by turning me on to Micron...it's just that 100% of my retirement account is invested in Micron Jan 2016 options so I strongly believe in Micron and will defend Micron as a strong buy until at least Jan 2016 :) Nothing personal.
    Nate
    Jun 24 10:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On Micron Earnings To Be Released After The Close [View article]
    Russ,

    Disconcerting to me that you've seemingly so quickly gone from being so bullish on Micron to so bearish on Micron. Maybe you're just talking your book as they say so who can blame you. I perceive the better strategy is to stick with LEAPs into January 2016 expiry or own the underlyings and ride the macro wave higher than trying to time the small daily or weekly ripples up and down but that's an expensive lesson in market volatility that most often people have to learn for themselves--like most of life we learn from our mistakes, only the wisest among us (that excludes me) are wise enough to learn from others' mistakes and thus save themselves a lot of pain and suffering.

    Nate Sterling
    Jun 24 07:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Retains Its Growth Momentum In Q3 2014 [View article]
    Trefis says:

    "...Our price estimate of $22 for Micron is at a significant discount to the current market price. We are in the process of updating our valuation for the company..."

    Questions that come to mind regarding Trefis: Who exactly is this Trefis guy and why is he so slow? Why do they waste my and other readers' time with these automated brainless articles? Can't they update their price target in one day? I mean how hard is it to update a price target? (Hint: Basically it involves including a different price in their article, which amounts to a couple key strokes). Why has Trefis been in the process of updating their valuation for Micron for many months? What value is Trefis when they appear to write computer generated drivel?
    Jun 24 02:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On Micron Earnings To Be Released After The Close [View article]
    Russ, I have the actual EPS numbers to counter the 3 sigma $.56 you presented :P Just kiddin' witya. I give you much props for your initial bullish call on Micron regardless of your recent change of heart.
    Jun 23 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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