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Update: Ballard Power Misses Badly
- Stock has fallen from $4 to $3 since my previous article. Could fall below $1 in time.
- Earnings report was bad with nearly 10% revenue miss and revenue growth cut from 30% to just 20%.
- EBITDA profitability for 2014 cut from breakeven to $3m loss.
Ballard Power's Long March Toward Profitability
- Ballard Power's revenue momentum starting to falter as evidenced by its weak order book growth.
- Only minority of Ballard's revenue comes from the sale of products where there is a clear value proposition to the end user.
- The company is in a low volume, low gross margin business, making it hard to achieve decent levels of profit.
- Ballard's valuation compares badly to fellow Canadian fuel cell company Hydrogenics.
Update: Plug Power Earnings - Thesis Rejected
- Plug Power recently issued stock options to management, something I didn't think would happen so soon.
- Part of my short thesis has been proved wrong.
- The market has liked Plug Power's earnings today, though I still remain unimpressed.
40 Million More Reasons To Short AMD
- AMD short interest has increased by biggest amount in last 12 months.
- Low short ratio implies that this isn't a crowded trade.
- $2.50 price target remains on track.
How Low Can Plug Power Go?
- Plug's fair value is no more than 75c.
- For the next several months, management’s interests are aligned with the shorts.
- Diminished risk of a new hype cycle starting up again during that timeframe.
There's Plenty Of Downside Left For Ocado
- Intensifying competition in the supermarket sector will hurt Ocado's margins.
- Valuation much higher than sector averages and high even compared to Amazon when analyzed properly.
- Ocado will need fresh capital soon, which may provide an additional catalyst for further downside.
Bloodied Blinkx Now Has Huge Upside
- Blinkx shares have fallen sharply since allegations of click fraud and a poorly received earnings report.
- Accusations lack merit, and many claims have been withdrawn or amended.
- Stock now trades on an EV/FCF of 12 and has over 150% upside.
- Soaring BlackBerry Is Flying Too Close To The Sun
- Intel: Please Give Up On Mobile
- AMD Is Set To Plummet
- Facebook Makes Amazon Look Cheap
- BlackBerry Set To Plummet
- Intel's Mobile Torment
- Intel's Bold Tablet Gambit
- Sirius XM: Paying A King's Ransom For The Widest Of Moats
- The 4 Worst Stocks For 2014
- Apps Won't Save Apple
- Sell Facebook Now, Its Growth Will Soon Be Over
- Will AMD Repeat Tesla's Mammoth Short Squeeze?
- Apple Is Living On Borrowed Time
- Intel's Worst Nightmare
- Massive Overvaluation, Unrealistically High Expectations, And Capitulation By Shorts, Now Make Ocado An Excellent Short Candidate
- Chevrolet Volt's Failure Foreshadows Tesla's Fate
- Intel Concedes Defeat
- BlackBerry's Death Has Been Greatly Exaggerated
- There Won't Be An Apple TV
- Advanced Micro Devices Shorts Need To Form An Orderly Queue
- Microsoft Once Again Apple's Biggest Threat
- You Should Take Profits In Amazon
- Will AMD Thrive Or Just Survive?
- Should You Buy Microsoft?
- Keep Selling Tesla: Momentum Is Fading