Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Nathan Browning  

View Nathan Browning's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Volatility Battleground [View article]
    There are options on OVX. They are Euro expiration style like VIX or SPX. Not much volume right now, but there is no risk of early exercise. I am short call credit spreads. ITM at the moment, but if you look at the premium for options on the put side of the chain, they are priced for reversion to below 30 in Feb.

    My thesis is that my conviction in seeking a short in oil is not high. I don't want a short down here. But whether or not oil goes up or down, I believe that volatility will abate, and my OVX will expire worthless. Spot was 55 in OVX last night so the opportunity is still there to enter at much better prices than I did. For Jan and Feb, I still feel confident about my ultimate success in my positions.
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Volatility Battleground [View article]
    I look through a volatility lens for almost everything now. I'm short OVX below 50 in January, and below 34.85 into feb expiration. I used GVZ +20 to place a GLD Iron Butterfly that I closed at a profit last week. I used low vol in Russel to place a double diagonal, and of course VIX. We'll see how it turns out, but I'm short the Jan 18/28 call spread in VIX, and long XIV at 31.5.

    Reversion to the mean has been my biggest trading epiphany over the last couple of years. When trades are made in the direction that a given security is drawn to by it's very nature, it's possible to at least increase your odds of success.

    With all of the volatility products available, it's also pretty easy to diversify amongst asset classes.

    Great article.
    Dec 16, 2014. 01:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting VXX And Sleep: How To Do Both [View article]
    I see alot of complexity as I go through these comments. On 13 Oct, when VXX broke it's 200 day MA to the upside, I sold 10 Contracts of the Nov 40/48 call spread in VXX for about 1.10 on a limit order (Could've got alot more, but I was sleeping).

    10 Days later, the spread could've been bought back for $.25. I ended up keeping it still as now it's so far out of the money that I'm just going to let it wither and die to keep everything.

    I'm sure I could hedge somehow, but with the way VXX works, it just didn't make sense to me.

    Nov 8, 2014. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine Management Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    It seems to me on the surface that Capstone is running a very fine balance between production and distribution of their units.

    The costs required to get these units out quicker, i.e. an increase in the number of factory technicians, CNC machines and operators, assemblers etc. would make the ARPU go down. Remember, Capstone is not profitable to begin with, so they are shooting to run on the apex of a production Laffer curve so to speak.

    Also, a predictable backlog timeframe makes planning and development of these power projects from the customers perspective easier. A customer knows it's going to take x months minimum to get their Capstone units and can factor that into timelines and flow charts for the engineers.
    Jun 18, 2013. 04:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Close Is Capstone Turbine? [View article]
    Not that I've read or seen from any of my sources. The only non-grid power projects I've seen or heard about on any of the facilities/bases that I frequent are solar.
    Jun 14, 2013. 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: 2 Reasons Why Forbes' 'Put Selling Strategy' Could Be Catastrophic [View article]
    SE, one thing that you night be able to do, is to take screen caps of your trading platform, showing some of your positions.

    I do this from time to time when I am blogging. I write an article about a particular security, and then show my gains and losses screen from etrade to show people when I bought and sold, and for how much.

    This gives people with under 100 comments with no profile who troll SA, don't write their own articles and don't offer anything constructive less to work with.

    Jun 12, 2013. 03:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Is On Sale Now [View article]
    I think you will be very happy in 5 years.

    My 238 shares as of Feb 15 2011 is 338 shares as of the last drip.

    I would sell a put, but there's very little premium to be had even out to January. I see this as positive.
    Jun 11, 2013. 06:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Game Over For High Yield Debt [View article]
    My broker inexplicably changed my entry order for HYG from $92 to $91.5. Even better. Almost there at $91.80
    Jun 5, 2013. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Game Over For High Yield Debt [View article]
    I would have to look, but this disparity may be explained by premium or discount of the funds' spot price to NAV.

    Hectic selling in HYG or JNK can cause a rapid decrease in spot, while NAV might not change very much at all. Causing a reversion for spot to NAV a couple months later.

    The worst period of performance for HYG was of course 2008, with the best period of performance being 2009. The return of spot to NAV.

    My question would be: Many companies were in a very poor financial position in 2008 and the threat of default and lack of buyers for more issuance was very real. Are the companies who issue the paper that makes up HYG's holdings operating in the same environment as 2008? Do they have more or less cash on balance sheets than 2008. Are there more buyers for high yield issuance than 2008?

    My opinion is that the answers to these questions are yes. Even as government bonds rates start to normalize (notice I say not explode, or spike though on a short term chart it may look that way), there will naturally be a rebalancing, but the longer term performance of the HYG will stable and competitive because of they way the assets in the fund are managed.

    Great article. Great presentation.

    Disclosure: I will be long HYG at $92 for about 2.5% of my long term portfolio.
    Jun 1, 2013. 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: 2 Reasons Why Forbes' 'Put Selling Strategy' Could Be Catastrophic [View article]
    Most definitely, I'd like to get it under $5.00.

    But What I'm interested in most, is to see that the company has stabilized, and the chances for further dilution are reduced.
    May 29, 2013. 04:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Acquires PlayerScale, Expands Empire Into Gaming [View article]

    The way Ms. Mayer builds companies makes my heart pitter-patter.

    May 28, 2013. 06:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: 2 Reasons Why Forbes' 'Put Selling Strategy' Could Be Catastrophic [View article]
    Great opinion article. This is definitely a battle ground stock.

    This stock reminds me of a couple of others that I have followed in the past. PAL, CPST, RTK and FUEL for different reasons and in different ways. They all have something in common. They have massive beta, and move a lot on news.

    Back in 2010, I caught a double on PAL, and sold out. RTK, and FUEL yielded a 75% gain on the position and I sold these and moved on. CPST I have for $1.00 and will sell at $2.15 (it's going to be awhile).

    MCP is definitely a highly speculative stock. I'd love to see it get knocked down again on market movement. I'll be looking to see if there is any improvement in the fundamentals, then I will execute my strategy.

    My strategy is to initiate a small position in common stock equal to about .75% of my portfolio. Then, I put in a limit order to sell the shares at a 100% gain plus commission. Set it and forget it.

    It's a call option with no expiration. I don't really care if it ever goes anywhere. If it takes longer than a year to sell, I only pay 15% tax vice 28%. If it goes to nothing, by then the .75% loss on the portfolio is inconsequential.

    May 28, 2013. 05:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Annaly Capital Management's 12.2% Dividend Be Sustained? [View article]
    I'm looking at the dividend history and a 10 year chart, and it seems that in periods of rapidly rising interest rates i.e. 2005-6, that Annaly does very poorly in the shorter term both in price action and dividends. However, as interest rates stabilize and then roll over, price action and dividends do very well for an extended period.

    I would attribute this to the accumulation of notes at a discounted face value that can be sold in periods of declining rates(increasing face values) to the secondary market as the thirst for yield increases.

    As this concerns Annaly, I would expect, depending on how quickly rates rise post QE, a period of significant underperformance and dividend reductions for a period of quarters (accumulation) followed by a longer period of outperformance.

    I am long NLY. I am DRIPing my shares and will continue to hold. If price action ever returns to the $18 level, I will sell calls against my shares to balance NLY's bloated position in my portfolio.

    May 25, 2013. 06:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Weekly Options With The SPDR Gold Trust And Others [View article]
    May 23, 2013. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Weekly Options With The SPDR Gold Trust And Others [View article]
    I started looking into this on the surface if I was to place the trade as described this month (Expiring Jun 22 '13).

    I came up with GOOG RIC 22 Jun '13 965c/975c/860p/850p.

    The 860 put is 22, and the 965 call is 23 for Delta.

    Before June expiration Google would have to finish about $70, or 8% up or down for max profit.

    This trade can be had for $270 on 1 contract, with a possible profit of $1000 less commissions.

    As to the probablility of success, I do not know.
    May 18, 2013. 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment