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Nathan Weiss

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  • Northern Tier Energy: A Refinery MLP With A 19% Yield [View article]
    I think you may need to double your yield estimate for the next 12 months, but good article!
    May 16 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Summary, The Tesla Model S Is A Dirty Car [View article]
    So what's your analysis, Julian? The Tesla gets what, 265 miles per 85 kWh, or uses .321 kWh per mile? The U.S. power grid is at 570g CO2 per kWh, making the effective CO2 emissions of the Model S 182g per kWh? Add a 15% charging efficiency loss and you are at 215g per mile before idle losses... Not very green...

    Add 1,277 kWh per year of idle power losses, which take 1,502 kWh of power to recharge at 85% charging efficiency, and allocate over 8,000 miles per year and you get another 107g per mile of CO2 emissions, for a total of 322g per mile. Not Green...
    Put some numbers on the board rather than just stating "you are wrong."

    Or would you rather claim that you can install a solar cell and drive completely green? What percentage of Model S owners buy solar panels when they purchase their cars (or just before/after)? 2%? 5%? I would be shocked if it was 5%, or 1:20, but hey - cut my CO2 calculation of 322g per mile by 5%. You get 306g a mile. And we are ignoring NOx and SOx, which are multiples higher with a Model S than an ICE.

    And don't say green doesnt matter.. That is why the subsidies are there and 70% of 148 Tesla forum members polled said Environmental Factors impacted their buying a Model S: http://bit.ly/1026DzK

    Or that the Model S is not a national car so national grid emissions dont matter... Based on a the following 404 car sample, 6.7% of Model S sedans are in Texas (48% natural gas, 35% coal), 6.2% are in Florida (54% natural gas, 25% coal), 5.2% in Illinois (46% coal), and 4.4% in MD (55% coal). A total of 29% are in California (55% natural gas).

    http://bit.ly/13xVwTq

    Feel free to 'easily rebuff' my argument...
    May 15 05:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In Summary, The Tesla Model S Is A Dirty Car [View article]
    Well, white is defined by the viewer and you have no way of knowing if, in fact, white is black to another person... The basic facts of the Model S are clear, but some see white and others black. There is hardly a more polarized discussion that Tesla and EVs in general.
    May 15 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In Summary, The Tesla Model S Is A Dirty Car [View article]
    Ummm.. I used the two most popular vehicles as an example from the source you provided after you claimed it disputed my work. You get the same results using the top ten vehicles.

    After I showed that YOUR SOURCE confirms my work, I am cherry picking and have a bias? Interesting.
    May 15 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Summary, The Tesla Model S Is A Dirty Car [View article]
    We actually have a lot more supporting data, including meter readings, utility bills (many of which we purchased from Tesla owners) and information from clients that own the Model S. Had I posted more supporting data (indicating efficiency of .375 kWh per mile and significantly higher idle losses above 90 degrees than our averages) you would have claimed my data was false.
    May 15 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Summary, The Tesla Model S Is A Dirty Car [View article]
    In the U.S. less than 1% of gas production is typically flared (although it is double that today due to infrastructure issues in Texas and North Dakota). The flaring is actually less harmful than releasing the gas into the atmosphere as natural gas is mostly methane, 20X to 25X the GHG potential of CO2.

    That said, flaring is an incredible waste and both states (Texas and North Dakota) are working on programs to stop flaring.

    Don't worry, Neil - as an oil shill I crafted the state exemptions that allowed the flaring to take place - so you can blame me! (this is a joke, to be perfectly clear!)
    May 15 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Summary, The Tesla Model S Is A Dirty Car [View article]
    Prior to the sale, Toyota was suing GM for $360 mln for their half of the shutdown costs for the NUUMI plant - much of it environmental. When GM shuttered 16 plants in 2009, they stated "GM in July estimated that “wind-down” costs for 16 discarded facilities would exceed $1.25 billion because of environmental clean-up and legal fees." None were as large as NUUMI (and few as old). Old plants cost massive amounts of money to clean, but are allowed to stay open without cleanup if they continue with the same use.

    Toyota gave Tesla the 'good deal' to avoid shutdown costs. In reality - Tesla actually got the plant for free, with Toyota taking a $50 mln stake in Tesla as their IPO roadshow was struggling and then Tesla buying NUUMI for $42 mln and an additional $17 mln of equipment.

    If Tesla stays open, they got an incredible deal. If they have to close, there costs of cleaning up the site will be massive.
    May 14 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In Summary, The Tesla Model S Is A Dirty Car [View article]
    I am all for regulation to push industries to develop toward cleaner and more efficient energy use. CAFE standards would do that, IF they take away the flex fuel multiplier on new vehicles.

    The ZEV credit system is in place solely to push EVs into the market place. Nissan needs to sell just under 4,000 Leaf EVs in California each year to cover their entire 11,600 ZEV mandate. Rather than redesigning their ICE vehicles, they are cutting the Leaf price and selling it even further below production costs to capture more ZEVs.

    Why do you think Toyota went ahead with their 2,600 RAV4 EV program with Tesla? They get 4 ZEV credits for each one sold - worth $20,000 last year (and nothing by the end of this year). Why is Daimler looking at Tesla powered vehicles? How much do you want to bet the Daimler program does not go into production now that ZEV credit prices are tanking - as most other 'green' and carbon credit prices have in the past once politicians put in loopholes like the EV credit multipliers.
    May 14 02:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In Summary, The Tesla Model S Is A Dirty Car [View article]
    The U.S. is a slight net exporter of coal - but very slight.
    May 14 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tesla Model S Green? [View article]
    And volumetric increases do not necessarily translate into energy content increases.
    May 14 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Summary, The Tesla Model S Is A Dirty Car [View article]
    My issue and point is that the Model S is not 'Green' and thus Tesla should not have received $87 mln from other automakers in the first quarter alone (which gets passed on to people who buy their cars), $36.8 mln of federal tax credits to buyers and some $4 mln or so in state tax credits. Thats $158 mln in one quarter - to 4,900 relatively wealthy car buyers.

    Keep in mind that the controversial Amtrak operating subsidy was $466 mln in 2012. Whats a better use of funds?
    May 14 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Summary, The Tesla Model S Is A Dirty Car [View article]
    Appreciate it. Good luck getting the sunroof and door handles to work. And dont mind the clunks and rattles. On the plus side, your local windshield/glass guy will come to your BBQs as you will put his kids through college.

    Edmunds has a good running blog of the Model S, showing the good, the bad and the ugly:

    http://edmu.in/12Aignq
    May 14 07:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In Summary, The Tesla Model S Is A Dirty Car [View article]
    Funny, pick the VW Jetta on fuelly.com and users are getting above EPA mileage. The EPA rates the gasoline-engine Jetta with a combined 28 MPG and users get 33.7 (http://bit.ly/13hkd2S)

    The second most popular car, the Honda Civic, is rated by the EPA at a combined 32 MPG, but users get 34.6. http://bit.ly/17p78Ly

    And again, pollution to deliver gasoline is less than transmission losses for electric power. How do you explain that a barrel of crude is $95 WTI at the well ($2.26 per gallon), where production and lifting costs are minimal, and gasoline at the wholesale level (pre-tax) is $2.80 a gallon, yet refineries are making $18 per Bbl margins ($.42 per gallon)... Hmmm...
    May 14 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Summary, The Tesla Model S Is A Dirty Car [View article]
    From the EPA, for 'downstream' emissions (as can be seen when on the http://1.usa.gov/wlmWTa website:

    These estimates include CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide emitted from all steps in the use of a fuel, from production and refining to distribution and final use—vehicle manufacture is excluded. Methane and nitrous oxide emissions are converted into a CO2 equivalent. Tailpipe emissions and upstream emissions—those that occur prior to the fuel being used in the vehicle—are displayed.

    You can see on their graphs that they always use a 25% increase for upstream tailpipe emissions, and they state "If you want to compare total tailpipe plus fuel production GHG emissions for an electric or plug-in hybrid electric vehicle to those for a gasoline vehicle, you should multiply your gasoline vehicle tailpipe GHG emissions value on the Fuel Economy and Environment Label by 1.25 to reflect the fuel production GHG emissions for gasoline."

    They then use the CO2-only numbers for E emissions, then CO2+GHG numbers for ICE vehicles. The EPA is very biased toward 'green' technologies and their data reflects this bias.
    May 14 07:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Summary, The Tesla Model S Is A Dirty Car [View article]
    And I suppose you think VLCCs burning 24 gallons per nautical mile for the 7,206 NM trip to the U.S. are dirty too? Thats 172,944 gallons - big number, but only 4,117 barrels of fuel - .21% of the 2 mln barrels of crude on the vessel. Don't confuse big numbers with big percentages.

    As we discuss below, refineries consume very little energy per gallon of fuel processed as well.
    May 14 06:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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