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Nathan Weiss

 
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  • The SandRidge Mississippian Trust I - Declining Distributions Will Lead To Negative Returns [View article]
    Hi Robgra,

    I think Seeking Alpha does a good job making sure the disclosures from authors are both obvious and apparent. If authors were not allowed to write about investments that they have positions in, the quality and availability of the research would suffer greatly. Readers can decide on their own how valid articles are based on the disclosures, as well as comment and challenge authors on their thesis. Note that my article uses some bullish commodity price assumptions and only predicts a 1% negative return on SDT in 2013 - I don't think I would classify that as a reverse 'pump and dump' at all.

    -Nathan
    Oct 15, 2012. 09:10 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tesla Model S Green? [View article]
    tech01X:
    There are certainly debatable parts of all the studies and many of the calculations out there for CO2 and energy usage - and the debates go both ways. Had I cherry-picked studies, I could have made the CO2 calculations for the Model S much higher. I tried to be as fair as I could. The real point is the magnitude of the Tesla Model S inefficiency: Even if you cut the CO2 emitted in the production of the lithium batteries in half (from 153g per mile to 77g per mile) and assume the Model S generates 20% less CO2 than my calculations show through better mileage, lower transmission losses, etc you still end up with effective CO2 output of 392g per mile - more than most new gasoline powered cars.
    May 9, 2013. 10:21 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tesla Model S Green? [View article]
    oldpartsnrust:
    I was actually being nice (and trying to shorten the article) by not including energy usage in the production, transportation and refining of gasoline because if I did, I would also have to do the same for coal and natural gas-fired power plants and the net impact is that the Model S would be even less green. Coal mining is massively energy intensive...
    May 9, 2013. 10:14 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Summary, The Tesla Model S Is A Dirty Car [View article]
    Guys, its easy. If the Model S pollutes more than other ICE vehicles and you are charging it with a solar panel, if you stop using your Model S and buy a more efficient ICE, allowing your solar power to be sold to the grid - offsetting electricity production elsewhere, you cut your total CO2 emissions. I can run through the math if you need...
    May 13, 2013. 02:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Summary, The Tesla Model S Is A Dirty Car [View article]
    Oil is pretty efficient to produce and move (refineries report total costs of under $.10 per gallon, including energy, labor and all direct operating expenses), but coal is massively dirty to produce and move, making electricity generation look massively dirty in comparison and electricity transmissions losses alone (7%) are greater than the energy used to process and move oil.
    May 13, 2013. 02:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tesla Model S Green? [View article]
    If you include the energy producing, transporting and refining gasoline you need to include the energy producing, mining, processing and transporting coal and natural gas for electricity generation. Thats how the Model S becomes less green with the supply chain analysis.
    May 9, 2013. 12:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tesla Model S Green? [View article]
    I assure you there are not 'spinning things' sucking up and wasting massive amounts of electricity at night. Charging an EV at night consumes fossil fuels.
    May 9, 2013. 11:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Best Month Ever In The U.S.: Do Not Get Carried Away [View article]
    U.S. deliveries in September were most likely boosted by the factory shutdown and slow ramp when it came back online during the month in August, which certainly resulted in very weak August deliveries, rather than an increase in demand!
    Oct 2, 2014. 08:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tesla Model S Green? [View article]
    We have recommended clients short Tesla based on our analysis that the Model S sells into a limited market given the price and it costs Tesla more to produce the Model S than they sell it for. In a quarter where the average Model S selling price was likely $91,000 as the first part of the quarter consisted almost entirely of 85 kWh, highly-optioned vehicles, excluding ZEV credits (which the industry will have too many of by year end with BMW and Honda both introducing EVs and the Prius and LEaf selling well) Tesla had a negative gross margin of $13.14 mln, or $2,600 per Model S. Take away the estimated $42 mln of automotive revenues resulting from sales other than sedans and ZEV credits (battery systems, parts/service, etc) at a 40% gross margin (Tesla has said 50%) and Tesla generated a $29 mln gross margin loss on the manufacture of the Model S this quarter, or $5,918 per sedan. A $6,000 gross margin loss on a $91,000 sedan equals a $97,000 cost - down only marginally from the estimated production cost of $105,100 in Q4 - $5,940 of it due to labor cost reduction, by our full analysis.

    As Tesla ships lower cost models in Q2, their average selling price should decline by $3,800 per vehicle based on the options chosen by buyers and posted in forums. Tesla needs to cut an additional $10,000 of costs per vehicle in order to have flat gross margins in Q2, excluding ZEV credits.

    For the company to make money, they also have to cover R&D and SG&A - both of which we believe will grow relative to Model S deliveries as they move closer to the Model X introduction and increase the number of superchargers and service and sales centers. In the first quarter R&D costs were $54.8 mln, or $11,183 per delivered Model S and SG&A costs were $47.05 mln, or $9,602 per delivered sedan - a total of $20,785. Tesla needs to produce an $87,000 Model S for $66,215 in order to break even... Thats $30,785 below their first quarter Model S production.
    May 9, 2013. 05:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tesla Model S Green? [View article]
    Debunked? I suggest readers go back and look at my track record for postings here...
    May 9, 2013. 01:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tesla Model S Green? [View article]
    By even less green, I mean that the Model S would become even less green than an internal combustion engine vehicle. It would make the Model S look worse in comparison.
    May 9, 2013. 12:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is About To Become An Even Bigger Bubble [View article]
    EU deliveries have been delayed multiple times:

    June 6, 2012 shareholder meeting - "in about six months, we'll bring Model S cars to Europe"

    Q1 2012 - "Model S sales in Europe will begin in early 2013"

    Q3 2012 - "We could start production of those units sooner than kind of the March, April timeframe next year. But there is not really a need to do that"

    December 2012, Model S European Pricing Blog - "We look forward to our first Model S Signature cars arriving in Europe. European left hand drive deliveries are scheduled to begin in late Spring of 2013."

    Geneva Auto Show, March 2013 - "European deliveries of Model S electric sedans will start "no later than July" with cars that will be manufactured in June."

    Now read the Tesla forum posts by European buyers, being promised August/September deliveries and Tesla's own comments that it takes six weeks to ship and deliver European vehicles.

    I wont disclose all my sources (EU crash test info and import/export data), however... But come on Julian, you probably work for Tesla. You should know this stuff! 14 comments on TSLA before noon today, 26 comments yesterday and 36 the day before? Sounds like a full time job to me. It takes me 10 to 15 min to write and edit a good post... 30 posts X 12 min = 6 hours a day...
    Jul 11, 2013. 02:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is About To Become An Even Bigger Bubble [View article]
    HMGD - Clearly if Elon said so, they will sell a lot more.

    Q4 2011 - "Based on delivery of 5,000 Model S sedans, we anticipate full year [2012] revenues of $550 mln to $600 mln.
    Actual results: 2,663 sedans and revenues of $386 mln

    Q1 2012 - 'We will deliver in the tens in terms of the number of units in Q2' and 'still guiding for 5,000 deliveries in 2012'
    Actual Results - 10 Model S sedans sold in Q2

    Q2 2012 - "Production on plan for 2012 goal of 5,000 deliveries" and "Maintaining revenue guidance of $550 mln to $600 mln" in 2012
    Actual Results - Elon stated this was a 'soft goal' as Tesla delivers 2,670 sedans in 2012 and revenues of $386 mln

    Q2 2012 - "We will not be raising money as... we are fully funded through the Model X"
    Actual Results - Tesla has since raised >$1.2 bln from stock and convertible bonds

    Q3 2012 - "we produced over 200 cars in the past week" and "confident of delivering 2,500 to 3,000 Model S sedans in Q4"
    Actual Results - Delivered 2,400 Model S sedans in Q4

    Q4 2012 - 'will deliver 4,500 Model S sedans in Q1 due to employees having the first week of the year off'
    Actual Results - Tesla actually delivered 4,900 sedans in Q1

    Q1 2012 - 'Plan to build about 5,000 Model S sedans during the second quarter... deliveries will be slightly more than 4,500 to to vehicles expected to be in transit to Europe" and Tesla "feel comfortable raising [2013] guidance to about 21,000 deliveries"
    Actual Results - TBD
    Jul 11, 2013. 12:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Is About To Become An Even Bigger Bubble [View article]
    HMGD - Clearly if Elon said so, they will sell a lot more. LEts look at his track record.

    Q4 2011 - "Based on delivery of 5,000 Model S sedans, we anticipate full year [2012] revenues of $550 mln to $600 mln.
    Actual results: 2,670 sedans in 2012 and revenues of $386 mln

    Q1 2012 - 'We will deliver in the tens in terms of the number of units in Q2' and 'still guiding for 5,000 deliveries in 2012'
    Actual Results - 10 Model S sedans sold in Q2
    Q2 2012 - "Production on plan for 2012 goal of 5,000 deliveries" and "Maintaining revenue guidance of $550 mln to $600 mln" in 2012
    Actual Results - Elon stated this was a 'soft goal' as Tesla delivers 2,670 sedans in 2012 and revenues of $386 mln

    Q2 2012 - "We will not be raising money as... we are fully funded through the Model X"
    Actual Results - Tesla has since raised >$1.2 bln from stock and convertible bond offerings

    Q3 2012 - "we produced over 200 cars in the past week" and "confident of delivering 2,500 to 3,000 Model S sedans in Q4"
    Actual Results - Delivered 2,400 Model S sedans in Q4

    Q4 2012 - 'will deliver 4,500 Model S sedans in Q1 due to employees having the first week of the year off'
    Actual Results - Tesla actually delivered 4,900 sedans in Q1

    Q1 2012 - 'Plan to build about 5,000 Model S sedans during the second quarter... deliveries will be slightly more than 4,500 to vehicles expected to be in transit to Europe" and Tesla "feel comfortable raising [2013] guidance to about 21,000 deliveries"
    Actual Results - TBD

    It appears the EU customer cars did not ship in June due to pedestrian crash test concerns, which allowed Tesla to focus more on North America... This should allow them to deliver more then 4,500 sedans (4,750?), but the 21,000 goal... Time will tell.
    Jul 11, 2013. 11:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Ambitious SuperCharger Infrastructure Build Is SuperExpensive [View article]
    So each station has a total of 100 (5 X 20) 100 watt panels? Shouldn't each panel yield about .5 kWh on a bright day in a good climate, or just 50 kWh per day for the station? That wouldn't be enough to charge a single Model S.

    If 2 Model S sedans are at each Supercharger for 12 hours per day, this would consume 1,440 kWh prior to charging losses and likely 1,694 kWh with charging losses. This would require roughly a 400 kWh solar array. Look at the size of a 100 kWh array...

    http://bit.ly/17jzLKh

    Something is fishy here.... Are the 'green' superchargers yet another misleading ploy of Tesla's?
    Jun 3, 2013. 04:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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