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Natty Greene

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  • Why Pfizer And Publix Will Ramp Up Acura Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    http://bit.ly/193Fjnu
    Sep 26 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Pfizer And Publix Will Ramp Up Acura Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    jbgoose,

    As you may have noticed, in my articles I like to point out things in a company that the average observer may have missed (like a Form 4 filing, or institutional ownership increase, or like in this case the chain that is now carrying NEXAFED). I never claim to be the omniscient expert on any stock I write about. Just pointing out some things to add to the free discussion of stock ideas.

    You do raise some good questions on stocking and reorders which I hope management will be explain more clearly on the next CC.

    My points in this article are simply:

    1. I was amazed that the stock did not react (as it has historically done to positive PRs) to the 85% rise in pharmacies carrying NEXAFED. This struck me as very positive news. I came to the conclusion it was because the new chain was not named (unlike when they named Kerr Drugs) in the 9/18 PR.

    2. As an ACUR investor, I was curious which chain was now carrying NEXAFED, so I researched and found that there are only two large regional supermarkets based in FL. A few simple phone calls verified that Publix stores in five states had NEXAFED available (as of yesterday).

    (Regarding your question on orders....all I know is what the company has released in PRs or in conference calls....and they say that revenue from NEXAFED is being deferred in recognition until the return period is over.....this could be 30 days, 60 days, or longer depending on what the terms of sale were.....therefore we really will not know how well NEXAFED is doing in these expanded pharmacies until a few more quarters....the verdict is still out on adoption of this Sudafed alternative and whether folks will buy it time and time again)

    3. Regarding OXECTA, any longtime ACUR follower knows of the delays in OXECTA rollout and marketing. Acura's success/royalties ($$) with OXECTA all depends on Pfizer's sales efforts. I found it significant that Pfizer will ramp its communication with health care providers regarding OXECTA in Q4 2013 according to Acura.

    Perhaps someone can do a followup to this piece and actually estimate sales #s for NEXAFED, but that was not something I covered here. Just sharing my thoughts on Acura, folks must decide for themselves whether they want to invest in the company. Biotech investing is always speculative and risky.

    I added at 1.50 based on these developments covered in my article. Time will tell if that was a good investment or not.

    GLTY,

    Natty
    Sep 24 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Venaxis: Well-Funded Ahead Of Multiple Catalysts Expected Through Year-End [View article]
    APPY has named its French distributor/partner, Nephrotek, http://www.nephrotek.fr

    When the MoU Agreement is signed, I would expect a PR from company.

    Also, UK and Germany distributors to be announced in next 45 days too.

    Great opportunity to add today at $1.40
    Aug 14 04:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Institutions Increase Ownership In Venaxis [View article]
    APPY has named its French distributor/partner, Nephrotek, http://www.nephrotek.fr

    When the MoU Agreement is signed, I would expect a PR from company.

    Also, UK and Germany distributors to be announced in next 45 days too.

    Great opportunity to add today at $1.40
    Aug 14 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Positive Phase III Results For GTx's Cancer Muscle-Wasting Drug [View article]
    mjsfinancial,

    The reason I expect this stock to see $2 range if trials fail to meet both primary endpoints is mostly supported by technical action of stock on past disappointing news.

    You will notice that when Capesaris clinical trials were put on hold in January 2012, ,the stock went from $6.55 to $2.61 shortly following this news.

    Further back, you will notice that when GTx had their last secondary offering (10M shares @ $4.75) in June 2011, the stock went from $6.86 to $2.67 in short order.

    I have no doubt that if current Phase III trials are unsuccessful, the stock will perform similarly based on past technicals and the assumption that another capital raise would be forthcoming.

    GLTY,

    Natty
    Jul 29 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Positive Phase III Results For GTx's Cancer Muscle-Wasting Drug [View article]
    Cora Schlesinger,

    Excellent article on GTXI, http://seekingalpha.co...

    GLTY,

    Natty
    Jul 29 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Positive Phase III Results For GTx's Cancer Muscle-Wasting Drug [View article]
    biopeon,

    I skipped the "flawed data" debate details because others (you, Choi, & now Schlesinger) have all effectively covered those points in your public postings.

    In my articles, I always try to provide an analysis not yet reported in public forums to add to the discussion and due diligence on a particular stock.

    GLTY,

    Natty
    Jul 29 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Positive Phase III Results For GTx's Cancer Muscle-Wasting Drug [View article]
    Batladdish,

    Agreed on the risk/reward profile and not for faint of heart. Let's be honest, if trials fail to meet both primary endpoints, the stock gets hit hard. That is why this is considered highly speculative investing. I, too, have been given greater confidence in GTXI due to massive insider buying and ownership (Schuller, Hyde). We'll know soon enough.

    GLTY,

    Natty
    Jul 29 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Positive Phase III Results For GTx's Cancer Muscle-Wasting Drug [View article]
    Biotech researcher,

    My data release estimate is 1H of August.

    GLTY,

    Natty
    Jul 29 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Positive Phase III Results For GTx's Cancer Muscle-Wasting Drug [View article]
    surgeon21,

    My estimate for data release is 1H of August.

    GLTY,

    Natty
    Jul 29 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Near-Term Catalysts To Propel InVivo Shares Higher [View article]
    Congrats to those holding as NVIV just reached the price target ($5.00) set in this article published 45 days ago. $5.30 price as I type...with 2 catalyst pending including imminent uplisting.

    GLTY,

    Natty
    Jul 17 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Games Rise In China's Top Grossing Rankings [View article]
    hawk1999,

    Welcome to SA, glad to see you decided to make your very first post ever in response to this article. Must have struck a nerve with you!

    Perhaps you should research your comments better instead of "assuming" and claiming that "users in China do not buy many IAPs (In-app purchases) so ad revenues can be 80% of the mix or higher."

    Contrary to your assumptions, the facts are that 80-90% of all iOS gaming app revenues in China come from in-app purchases, and NOT ad revenues as you suggest.

    A few citations to support this fact come from a notable research firm and a successful China game developer founder & CEO:

    1. March 2013 Study by Distimo:

    http://tcrn.ch/14UsSuf

    In this study, you will learn that 76% of iPhone App Store revenue in the U.S. was attributed to in-app purchases. And 90% of iPhone App Store revenue in China comes from in-app purchases.

    2. Recent Presentation at Stanford Graduate School of Business by David Liu, founder of China mobile game company RedAtoms:

    http://bit.ly/14UsSKs

    In slide 5, you will notice the chart titled "iOS Revenue Growth China 2011-2012" which shows that 80% of Chinese iOS revenue is attributed to In-app purchases.

    Before falsely accusing someone of a "poorly researched" article, I would suggest you spend a few moments researching your own comments which actually are poorly researched.

    GLTY,

    Natty Greene
    Jul 4 12:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Games Rise In China's Top Grossing Rankings [View article]
    ManiakTT,

    The sale to which you refer was by a former director of GLUU, Matthew Drapkin, who is no longer on the board. I did not mention in article because I do not find those transactions relevant because they were related to his departure from the board. It is typical for former board members to divest themselves of company stock as they leave board. More on Drapkin's amicable departure and his replacement here,

    http://bit.ly/12lu8V9;highlight=

    Drapkin is an activist shareholder & private equity guy (see his activism at Ruby Tuesdays) who in my opinion has no reason to hold a stock if he is not intimately involved and knowledgeable of the company's inner developments. I would have been surprised if he did not sell his GLUU holdings as he left the board.
    Jul 3 08:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Judge Ruling A Big Win For MGT Capital [View article]
    Pat,

    Sure wish we were all as omniscient as you claim to be.

    Please share some of your top picks/holdings with us so we can track your record.

    Seriously, what are your current top picks? We're all ears.

    Natty
    Jun 25 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Judge Ruling A Big Win For MGT Capital [View article]
    Patricia,

    You have been attacking MGT ever since I first wrote on this promising company when it was priced 25% lower at $3.86. Obviously, you are getting the story VERY wrong and looking quite foolish with your repetitive, baseless, bearish commentary.

    While you are busy attacking, opportunistic investors are buying up MGT's tiny 3.8M float because of this incredible opportunity to buy a company with a $30M market cap which has the potential to be rewarded a portion of the estimated present value of the royalties over the life of their patent which ranges from $330 million to $4.5 billion. (this of course does not even include MGT's new growth initiatives in mobile skill based gaming and in daily fantasy sports wagering)

    Your dire warnings in regards to our investment in MGT are not needed. But, on the other hand, feel free to continue posting because your bearish opinion has been a terrific contrary indicator so far for the bullish direction of the stock.

    Patricia Dobbs Bashes MGT = Share Price Increases

    GLTY,

    Natty
    Jun 25 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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