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Nawar Alsaadi

 
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  • How To Profit From Keystone XL's Indefinite Delay [View article]
    I just saw this post as I was quite busy with my book tour. The only thing I can say to you Chris: It is truly pathetic to see the level you stooped to in your personal attacks.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Aug 6, 2014. 12:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TransCanada eyes shipping crude by rail amid Keystone XL delays, CEO says [View news story]
    Canexus is still one of the best ways to get exposure to the Canadian bitumen by rail trade:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I wouldn't be surprised if TransCanada or Enbridge makes an offer for their NATO terminal or at least partner with them on the project.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    May 22, 2014. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From Keystone XL's Indefinite Delay [View article]
    By the way, where do you see the stock down 50c?. The stock is showing green on my side. It looks like the market cares about fundamentals after-all.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    May 8, 2014. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From Keystone XL's Indefinite Delay [View article]
    Chris,

    The fundamental value of the company has not changed, and Canexus continues to be an attractive investment with a potential upside in the $7+ area at some point in 2015. Worrying about the dividend level is a concern for a speculator, thus only those who speculate for a living worry about dividend levels.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    May 8, 2014. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canexus Corporation Positioned For A 30% Rebound [View article]
    Lavee,

    DOT 111 regulation could effect their manifest business, however this is a small portion of their operation and different from the unit train operation. Also, we need to keep in mind, the industry has 3 years to replace or retrofit older DOT-111 rail cars, so there is no immediate impact. Finally, to my knowledge Canexus does not own the rail cars, it is their clients who own them, thus any concern is likely related to a possible disruption of service rather than a direct financial cost to the company.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    May 1, 2014. 07:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canexus Corporation Positioned For A 30% Rebound [View article]
    John, that's correct, I do touch on that in the article as I compare undiluted bitumen train transport economics vs. pipe. Once you remove the diluent, rail is actually cheaper than pipelines for uncommitted shippers.

    I would recommend listening to MEG Energy conference call from yesterday, MEG highlighted that once their diluent recovery unit is constructed their rail shipment costs will diminish by a third:

    http://bit.ly/1fwGaaK

    There is an extensive discussion of rail and its advantages in that call, Canexus is the company serving MEG for its bitumen by rail transport.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    May 1, 2014. 11:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canexus Corporation Positioned For A 30% Rebound [View article]
    Alavee,

    Canexus' unit trains transports heavy oil in coiled heated cars, virtually all of those of cars are newly built and already up to standard, the new DOT-111 regulations have the most impact on companies transporting light oil, which is not the case for Canexus.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    May 1, 2014. 09:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If The Keystone XL Is Rejected, Canadian National Railway Will Benefit The Most [View article]
    Hi Larry,

    Interesting article, I have looked at the rails as a way to play a delay/rejection of KXL, however I came to the conclusion that the impact on smaller players such as Canexus and Gibson Energy would be more pronounced (http://seekingalpha.co...). I am curious to know your thoughts on those?.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Apr 25, 2014. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canexus Corporation Positioned For A 30% Rebound [View article]
    Jason,

    Thanks, glad the idea is of interest. As to your question, there is certainly no difference between the TSX and OTC beside the liquidity matter you have highlighted.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Apr 21, 2014. 09:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From Keystone XL's Indefinite Delay [View article]
    JFF7, yes there is room to add additional unit trains, room to develop their salt caverns (two already almost fully developed + room for 12 more) and there is the prospect of rising condensate handling (as back-haul on trains transporting bitumen). It is my believe however that CUS will partner with an experienced industry partner should it decide to expand those businesses, possibly a 50/50 joint venture. It is also worth noting that NATO as is has been valued between $500m and $700m, a 50/50 venture could net them $250m to $350m, and they would still be able to capture much of the future upside.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Apr 21, 2014. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From Keystone XL's Indefinite Delay [View article]
    Prudent, here is the definition from Investopedia:

    "A provision, written into a contract, whereby one party has the obligation of either taking delivery of goods or paying a specified amount."

    http://bit.ly/1d7lFed

    Thus in the case of Canexus the bitumen producers either have to utilize the booked train capacity or pay for it throughout their 3 to 5 years contract. Those contracts are considered very low risk since the provider of the service is guaranteed to be paid regardless of the actual transported volume.

    Regards,
    Nawar



    Apr 21, 2014. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From Keystone XL's Indefinite Delay [View article]
    John, you make an excellent point. I also would like to add the KXL delay could boost the Board confidence in the likelihood of NATO being fully contracted, hence increasing their confidence in future cash flows, which should reduce the impetus to adjust the dividend.

    While the some analysts have been predicting a dividend cut, it is far from being a done deal. Also, it is worth stating that a truly harmful dividend cut is when the dividend is cut due to fundamental permanent deterioration in business, but in the case of Canexus any cut will be temporary in nature as cash flows are expected to approach a record in 2015 while capex will decline by over 90%.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Apr 21, 2014. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canexus Corporation Positioned For A 30% Rebound [View article]
    Prudent, "take or pay" means the customer has to pay for the contracted capacity whether they use it or not. So for example, if an oil sands producer contracts with Canexus for two trains a week for 3 to 5 years, they would have to pay for this capacity even if they don't use it.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Apr 21, 2014. 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From Keystone XL's Indefinite Delay [View article]
    Mkarpoff, for a review of Canexus' dividend sustainability, please review this this excellent article by Canadian Small Cap:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Apr 21, 2014. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone pipeline decision delayed again, likely until after November elections [View news story]
    How To Profit From Keystone XL's Indefinite Delay

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Apr 21, 2014. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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