Nawar Alsaadi

China North East Petroleum Poised to Grow

Sorry, I just saw your message, you continue to hold the shares, your broker will switch them with the new shares.

Regards,
Nawar


On Oct 06 11:41 AM Ramesh wrote:

> This is a general question about migration of stocks from pink sheets
> or other OTC to an exchange. What happens to the shares held? Do
> they get migrated? Do you have to sell them and purchase the exchange
> version?
>
> for example, what happened to CNEH.OB holders when NEP was listed
> in amex?
>
> thanks.

China North East Petroleum Poised to Grow

This offering was a much needed step for NEP to proceed with its expansion plans, at this point, all the pieces are in place for NEP to start its strategic growth plan, starting with a driller and ending with access to new oil leases or the acquisition of further reserves, the combination of strong organic growth along with a number of external growth initiatives will yield very strong revenue and EPS growth in the next few quarters.

Regards,
Nawar

Expect Oil Prices to Rise: Three Major Oil Exporters Warn About Production

150m to 250 barrels, means 45m to 75m barrels in extractable reserves, this doesn't even cover the world consumption for one day!. This COP is insignificant.

Some think that since we peaked, no one will find anymore oil, companies will continue to find oil for decades, however the quantity or quality will not match what we discovered in the last 150 years.

Many don't know that oil onshore production peaked in 1982, and most oil today is produced offshore, companies still find oil here and there on shore, but they never reversed the peak.

Regards,
Nawar

Expect Oil Prices to Rise: Three Major Oil Exporters Warn About Production

Actually the fanfare about this BP find is a further confirmation of peak oil, companies now are digging for oil 11 kilometers (35000 feet) under the ground of the ocean!? To find enough extractable oil that would satisfy the world needs based on current consumption levels for 12 days!? … and this is not to mention that the oil is supposed to hit the market in 2020…assuming we don’t have too many hurricanes!

Regards,
Nawar

'Up Listed Chinese Companies: Above Average Returns

Danny, NEP remains newly listed, I believe it would take sometime to build a stable and wider shareholder base, meanwhile the relatively small float and the interest by short term traders in Chinese is adding to the volatility, which actually seems to be a plus right now, since it is offering liquidity for the long term shareholders to take a position.

As for the dilution, most of the dilution is tied to the warrants placed in February 2008, which are in the money now (thus included in the diluted share count), in my last conversation with management I pressed on the issue of not issuing more “warrants” to fund growth since the shares are undervalued, they do seem to be in accordance with this point, being a major exchange listed today reduces the need for the company to entice backers with very discounted shares or warrants to gain access to capital, I believe as we move forward share issuance will be tied to accretive growth only (even thought the warrants and debt financing in 2008 was also accretive).

I believe that NEP shares remain extremely undervalued, based on the value of the reserves in the ground (deals in Jilin were valued at $19/$20 a barrel in the ground), and based on the valuation of peers in the industry, NEP should trade at a minimum of $10 a share to trade at fair value.

Regards,
Nawar

On Sep 02 11:10 AM Danny Furman wrote:

> Thanks Nawar, after rereading more closely I understand that you
> mentioned several companies to show appreciation rather than value.
> With regards to NEP, are you concerned with how the stock performs?:
> Lots of shorting given the valuation. To me it looks like aggressive
> accumulation, shorting any signs of weakness to take out stop losses.
> On the other hand, it seems possible that shares are being added
> and dilution will continue until the valuation is no longer favorable.
> My inclination is towards the former (seekingalpha.com/artic...),
> but I'd really appreciate your thoughts as you are more experienced.

Expect Oil Prices to Rise: Three Major Oil Exporters Warn About Production

"What is happening Nawar ? Is NEP falling apart ?"

Far from it!, I believe "seasaw" gave you the best answer, the short term fluctuations in the stock price are not necessarily reflective of the company intrinsic value; I believe the most important growth phase for the company will take place in the next 4 quarters, as the company resumes drilling at full speed and as they execute their long term growth initiative in terms of an acquisition or a new lease; all this in the context of a rebounding economy and much better oil prices.

Regards,
Nawar


On Sep 02 12:03 PM cuewen wrote:

> NEP has fallen more than 15% since last week from 5.60 to 4.40 now.
>
> What is happening Nawar ? Is NEP falling apart ?

'Up Listed Chinese Companies: Above Average Returns

Danny, there is a dozen of Chinese companies that have listed recently and many more are ready to list, my goal was not to have a comprehensive list of all such companies, but to highlight the appreciation potential of those stocks, I believe the point was made with the chosen sample.

Regards,
Nawar


On Sep 01 11:57 AM Danny Furman wrote:

> I'm surprised not to see CBEH and SKBI listed here.

China North East Petroleum Poised to Grow

Actually the lesser the rain the better it is for NEP, one of the biggest problem for drilling is the rainy season, in May their drilling was delayed due to the heavy rains, if I am not mistaken current conditions are ideal for NEP drilling plans.

Regards,
Nawar


On Aug 29 12:36 PM User 479026 wrote:

> The most severe drought is in Jilin province, where NEP operates
> its oil fields.

China North East Petroleum Poised to Grow

There has been some talk (by the head of PTR and few analysts) about the surcharge threshold being upped to $60, however nothing came out of it as of yet; by all means despite the surcharge NEP gross and net margin is much higher then oil extractors in the US who pay no surcharge.

Regards,
Nawar


On Aug 27 01:53 PM egarl wrote:

> One thing that seriously harms NEP is the government's surcharge
> mentioned in the 2nd quarter report. The surchage is 20% on oil over
> $40 and 40% on oil over $60.

China North East Petroleum Poised to Grow

Thank you for your comments, I believe Q3 will be strong and the best for the year so far, but it will not be a record for the company, it will be in the $15m revenue range and around 20 EPS, the record quarter is going to be Q4 due to increasing production and rising oil prices; a fair valuation indeed will take us to a low double digits P/E and stock price.

Regards,
Nawar


On Aug 27 11:22 AM Danny Furman wrote:

> Thanks for the thorough analysis, Nawar. Higher oil prices vs Q2
> and additional wells in production should result in a record Q3.
> There seems to be a lot of shorting going on since the NYSE listing,
> seemingly to accumulate at these levels while volume is minimal.
> FY09 results will likely be the catalyst if NEP ever attains fair
> valuation (12x current earnings?).

Three Compelling Chinese Stocks

"my background is marketing and finance as well!" ... in theory we should be some great stock brokers with such a backround :) ..

regards,
Nawar


On Jul 08 10:40 AM manuel wrote:

> By the way nawar, I read your profile, my background is marketing
> and finance as well!

Three Compelling Chinese Stocks

Should be around mid-august.

regards,
Nawar


On Jul 08 10:15 AM manuel wrote:

> when will nep report earnings?

Three Compelling Chinese Stocks

Great article and great analysis of some excellent companies, thanks Kevin.

China North East Petroleum Catapults to the Next Level

Vish, this customer is tied by the royalty agreement to purchase all the produced oil, and PetroChina is not just any customer, this is one of the world largest oil companies and was the largest in 2008, the quality of the customer is not an issue in my opinion, and even if they stopped buying, selling their crude to someone else should not be an issue.

In regards to their competitive advantage, the oil business is a commodity business, thus the competitive advantage of players in this industry is cost, and NEP has one of the lowest cost structures in the industry as evident by their ROE/ROA and ROC, as well as their gross and net profits margins.

As for what happen in 2022 after the current lease expires, the company is looking to expand its production through the signature of new leases, the acquisition of a competitor or the move into a related business such as oil drilling, I believe the company has enough resources to expand beyond current leases way before 2022 and probably starting this year.

The biggest risk to the company is the price of oil, if oil price dip under $30 and remain under $30 for an extended period of time, the company may not be able to fund its operations without additional debt or heavy dilution.

Regards,
Nawar


On Jun 30 03:20 PM User 3842 wrote:

> Hi Nawar,
>
> Thank you for finding such a great company. I like the company, however
> I have one burning question.
> There seems to be just one customer for this company, which to me
> is a big risk. I know that they have guaranteed their purchase for
> the next 20 years. But maybe that is one of the reason, NEP is not
> able to achieve the valuation you feel it should. Also what I fail
> to understand is, what is the inherent competitive advantage the
> company has? Is there something that this company does that other's
> cannot do, or is it something that pretty much anyone can come in
> and do. Do they really have a moat in the business they are in. Also
> what happens after the 20 year agreement is up? Hopefully by then
> they will be big and doing something different. But what is the disaster
> scenario in that case?
>
> Thanks for your help in advance.
> Vish

Googling Inflation: Quadrillion Dollars by 2070?

I agree this is not very scientific attempt on my part, and if you would like a more normalized figures, you can use the same search function limited to the last 20 years, I believe the results will be more reliable, and they do show similar trends.

Regards,
Nawar


On Jun 25 09:17 AM sjz85 wrote:

> are these figures normalized for the increase in published news over
> the time series? I doubt it. Not the most compelling statistical
> analysis I have ever seen. But, still a creative use of google trends.