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Nawar Alsaadi

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  • Gasfrac Energy: The Prize Of Waterless Fracturing [View article]
    Hi there,

    Glad my articles are of interest.

    In regards to your questions:

    1. Yes, the picture shows the equipment they usually have at a fracturing site.

    2. They do the fracturing themselves.

    3. In total they have 17 patents between issued and applied (I believe 13 issued so far); those patents are related to the system they developed to fracture with LPG; no other company has developed a system such as theirs; the patents makes it harder for someone to copy their system. Of course, it is always conceivable that a competitor may try to work around the patents or even violate the patents; but beyond the patents the company has extensive experience and know how in working LPG fracturing for the last several years, this is an asset no one can replicate.

    The current stock price has is not reflecting the progress the company has experienced over the last few quarters; however we invest in companies, not stocks; as long as the company underlying business is going in the right direction and value is created for shareholders, the stock price will eventually follow.

    Regards,
    Nawar


    Mar 21 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: The Prize Of Waterless Fracturing [View article]
    Actually they did not say they will do a secondary. In the CC, they were asked if they are going to list in the US, in the response they mentioned that this year is not likely, since they would like their business to grow further, however they mentioned it is possible that a listing could be envisaged in 2013; furthermore should that listing take place it would be ideal to do it with a share offering (the logic being they would pick up brokerage coverage).

    This is comment had nothing to do with the decline in the shares; furthermore should any share offering take place in 2013 it can not be evaluated without examining management plans for the raised funds, as long as the return on those funds is higher than the resulting dilution, current shareholders stand to benefit.

    Having said that, the current management has indicated that they have no immediate plans to increase the set count beyond the current 10; the current focus is on increasing utilization, enhancing margins and increasing cash flows, this makes it highly unlikely that any shares would be offered in the near future.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Mar 21 12:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: The Prize Of Waterless Fracturing [View article]
    You either believe in efficient market theory, and thus this there is something wrong, or you believe in inefficient markets and hence this is a buying opportunity. I obviously believe the latter.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Mar 20 09:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: The Prize Of Waterless Fracturing [View article]
    Good observation. The big players however don't have a licence nor have the tools to pump liquid petroleum gas in the formation. Major companies in any industry have often purchased smaller competitors if they offered them a technological or commercial edge. Gasfrac wont be any different.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Mar 20 09:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: The Prize Of Waterless Fracturing [View article]
    So far the decline in natural gas have had no major impact on them since virtually most of their business is focused on liquids (either crude or natural gas liquids). Overall Gasfrac is better positioned than other industry players, since they have a technical solution that cannot be replicated; thus even if frac pricing was to weaken they would not be necessarily be impacted; as a matter of fact the pricing they received in Q4 was significantly higher than what they achieved in prior quarters.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Mar 20 05:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: The Prize Of Waterless Fracturing [View article]
    Actually the $59m is revenues, is the highest quarterly revenue the company has ever achieved. As, I mentioned in this article the company missed their target revenues due to capacity constrains with a supplier at Husky, which lead them to execute 55% to 65% of the planned work, without that issue they would be around $75m. I was not privy to such information in January, and the commercial growth of a new technology is not an exact science.

    Having said that, your message does miss the point of this article, Gasfrac can not be compared at this stage to a standard water fracker, this is like comparing the sales of Tesla to GM. The company is at different adoption and growth cycle vs those commodity players.

    Sure, investing in venture stage companies is risky; this is why success is compensated dearly, and failure is punished severely. There are two reasons why the stock is trading down about 50% from the high; the stock ran ahead of itself in October 2010 to March 2011, the other reason, the adoption of the technology will not likely happen as fast as the market had expected, but it is happening nonetheless.

    You are free to buy, sell or hold. I am voiced my opinion in this article, and you are free to voice yours, I urge you however to refrain from name calling and to keep it civil.

    Regards,
    Nawar



    Mar 20 05:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Is Correct To Identify U.S. Housing As An Attractive Asset Class [View article]
    There is a mistake in the article EQU is not a REIT, it is Equal Energy, an oil and gas producer in Canada and the US.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Mar 20 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: New Evidence Of Superior Production Results [View article]
    Hi Jack,

    Thank you for your kind words.

    In regards to the methane ground water leakage, in theory LPG fracked wells are subject to the same risks if there is a poor cementing job; however the largest methane pollution source is flaring, LPG fracking require minimal flaring, or non at all with the proper equipment, thus from that side the technology has an edge for sure.

    This link should provide you with more information on methane release into the atmosphere:

    http://1.usa.gov/AnayNH

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Mar 10 07:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunities Stack Up, As Fracs Back Up [View article]
    My money is on Gasfrac (GSFVF.PK) ; their waterless technology is superior and their new management is undertaking an intensive marketing efforts to gain market share and educate the market about the technology.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Mar 4 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: New Evidence Of Superior Production Results [View article]
    I don't think this has been done; however generally shale oil require a price of $55-$60 to be profitable, this is inclusive of fracking costs.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Mar 1 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: New Evidence Of Superior Production Results [View article]
    Thank you Andrew, I am not privy to the exact details of the licence; but based on my conversations with management; there is no risk of them losing this licence. Chevron can licence to someone else as well in the US market; however as I mentioned in my previous articles, LPG fracking is not limit to the LPG gel licence; Gasfrac has developed its own propriety closed loop system to utilize this gel in a fracking operation; currently nobody has a similar know-how.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 29 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: New Evidence Of Superior Production Results [View article]
    Mariner, I believe the move is driven by few factors, the first is the Quicksilver news; they did use Gasfrac and Gasfrac LPG fracking technology seems to have unlocked a major oil basin, other players in that area are Shell and Continental Resources, those companies will probably choose Gasfrac as well to frack their acreage (Shell is already a client of Gasfrac); this area is water sensitive, so water fracking can not be used; and oil fracs are not as effective according to Quicksilver.

    The other reason for the rise is tied to a research note issued by Raymond James on Feb 22nd and reiterated yesterday, that Gasfrac is getting close to announcing a material US contract.

    and finally; the sector has been rallying of late due to the strength in oil, and the strong results from few players in the sector CJES, CFW..etc

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 28 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: New Evidence Of Superior Production Results [View article]
    There is a very little activity going either way, the CEO bought 3K shares at $6.5 couple of months ago.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 27 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: Unlocking New Hydrocarbon Liquid Basins [View article]
    Today Quicksilver held their 4th Quarter Conference call; they reported excellent production results from their LPG fracs; they mentioned verbatim that "Gasfrac LPG fracs did significantly better" then the offsetting oil fracs. If you own shares in Gasfrac or doing your research on the company, I urge you to listen to Quicksilver conference call:

    http://bit.ly/yQedz6

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 27 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: New Evidence Of Superior Production Results [View article]
    bsirola; over the long term most certainly; however in the short term and medium term they have their hands full with North America, nonetheless they are taking steps to expand internationally, their partnership with eCorp to expanded in Europe is an example; I believe similar partnerships will be formed for Asia in the next couple of years. It is worth noting that fracking is still a nascent industry in China, it would take at least 5 years before that industry achieve critical size.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 27 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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