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Nawar Alsaadi  

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  • Gasfrac Energy: New Evidence Of Superior Production Results [View article]
    Raymond James is a brokerage house; thus they could be buying or selling shares at their clients requests at anytime. I wouldn't read much into it; the story long term fundamentals are intact.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 13, 2012. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: New Evidence Of Superior Production Results [View article]
    Renzo; going overseas is still more of a medium/long term proposition; they still have a lot to do in North America. When I asked the management about overseas projects; they said they would probably do it with a partner or at the request of specific major like Shell project in Karoo South Africa. I don't believe SLB or HAL will opt for a licence, I think they will acquire the whole company and expand it overseas themselves.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 11, 2012. 05:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: New Evidence Of Superior Production Results [View article]
    Thank you Old Trader. I have read your article, I think you did a good job pointing the environmental advantages of the technology.

    In my conversations with the company management it seems what is driving business for them currently is their superior production and EUR in certain basins; the environmental benefits remain a positive but not a driver; I believe this will change in the next few years, but for the time being, it is all about more production/ more $$$ for those operators.

    In terms of environmental advantages, I think the fact that they don't use any water will be beneficial in international basins that lack access to enough fracking water (such as the shale oil in the western desert of Argentina, the shale gas in the desert of Mexico and South Africa, the shale gas in the desert of China or the Mid-east) all those areas have issues with water; but they have significant oil and gas shale reserves.

    Eventually toughened environmental regulation in North America for waste water and CO2 emissions will also encourage LPG fracking; as well as possibly the lack of water in certain basins like west Texas.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 11, 2012. 03:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: New Evidence Of Superior Production Results [View article]
    Gasfrac has an exclusive licence for the gelled LPG in Canada and a master licence for the US; however it is not only about having access to gelled LPG.

    Gasfrac developed the method to inject gelled LPG (propane) with proppants, Gasfrac also developed the closed looped nitrogen system to frack with gelled propane. Having access to gelled propane is like having access to water; you need to build the whole fracking process around it; Gasfrac has constructed all of that, and has applied for at least 17 patents in relation to the process. Furthermore, they are the only company commercially deploying this technology since January 2008, the knowledge, intellectual capital and experience Gasfrac has in LPG fracking can not be easily replicated.

    Having said that, it is always possible that someone will attempt to enter this market despite Gasfrac patents, perhaps they will find away around them; however if this was to take place; it will be actually a plus for Gasfrac; it will finally validate LPG fracking once and for all. It will also make Gasfrac an even more attractive target for the remaining competitors that don't have access to LPG fracking; Gasfrac has such a head start, buying the company will give the purchaser an immense competitive edge. I would love to see HAL, SLB or BHI enter this segment; Gasfrac will be in play the next day.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 11, 2012. 02:44 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: New Evidence Of Superior Production Results [View article]
    I would like to make a correction, in my original article I highlighted that Chevron/Hal own the LPG patent; HAL is actually not involved with patent at all; it is only Chevron.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 11, 2012. 02:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: New Evidence Of Superior Production Results [View article]
    Thank you Holt, I am glad my short article has been of value; I do believe over the next couple of years the shareholders of Gasfrac will be handsomely rewarded.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 11, 2012. 09:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: New Evidence Of Superior Production Results [View article]
    Indeed John, often if you need to know the truth about a product or a company you should ask the competition. The BHI assessment of LPG fracking is very telling. I might add Trican CFO, also confirmed in an industry conference that Gasfrac process works quite well in a number of basins.

    I have done extensive research on this company, and it is indisputable that LPG fracking increases production and EUR in a number of formations.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 11, 2012. 09:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: New Evidence Of Superior Production Results [View article]
    John.

    The gelled propane process was developed in the late 90s with oil trading at the low teens; fracturing was not as wide spread; shale gas and shale oil were not part of the picture. Chevron/Hal did not have a process to fracture with gelled propane; a whole new system needed to be built from the ground up. The engineer who worked with Chevron eventually licensed the process and started Gasfrac in Canada in 2006; in 2008 the first LPG frac was undertaken under the supervision of Schlumberger, it was a success.

    So basically, Chevron and Halliburton did not have access to LPG fracking; at the time the only thing they had is the formula to make gel propane; it took 10 years before Gasfrac developed the closed nitrogen loop system and the process to inject the gel with proppants in order to frack safely and effectively.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 11, 2012. 09:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy: New Evidence Of Superior Production Results [View article]
    Hi Renzo.

    I am glad my articles have been of interest. Currently 100% of Gasfrac revenues are related to liquids (either crude or liquid rich gas); the company has not been involved in dry gas fracking for sometime now due the prolonged weakness in natural gas prices over the last few years.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 10, 2012. 05:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Frac Facts [View article]
    Thank you for the article.

    One way to deal with the water issue is waterless fracking done with LPG by Gasfrac; I have written extensively on this company on Seeking Alpha and I believe it is part of the solution.

    Regards,
    Nawar

    Feb 10, 2012. 04:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy Services: Fracturing Game Changer [View article]
    This was done to pay for the remaining capital costs of the 4 new fracking sets that are being delivered in Q1. It is worth noting the debt offering was raised 24 hours after it was announced, and the over-allotment was fully allocated due to strong demand.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 9, 2012. 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy Services: Fracturing Game Changer [View article]
    I believe the market is still waiting for the company to translate this impressive technology in better financial results; as I highlighted in the article the company disappointed in 2011; while the new management has been on board only since November 2011, thus they still need a bit more time to show results. The stock will likely start moving once they show progress in terms of US long term service contracts.

    My guess in March 16th, around Q4 CC, the new management will articulate its strategy for the company going forward; and there is a strong chance of contract announcement around that time frame.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 9, 2012. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy Services: Fracturing Game Changer [View article]
    Hi red,

    1. How do you know the costs are lower long-term? From what did you make that deduction?

    The costs are lower longer term because you get more oil and gas production from LPG fracking over the life of the well; hence your return on the investment is much higher; check the graph in the following article:

    http://bit.ly/yIWKAm

    It clearly shows higher cumulative production for an LPG fracked against an offset well; I also demonstrate that in subsequent articles; however it is important to mention that superior production has been confirmed in a number of basins, but not all basins according to my information.

    2. Would it be possible for other companies to use gas rather than water in the fracking process? Perhaps they could use some clever process that gets around the patents.

    Yes, it is possible other companies may choose to use a similar technology; this actually would be a plus for Gasfrac, since it will fully validate their technology; as well as, render the company a probable take over target for larger oil and gas service companies that don't have a access to LPG fracking. as a result of its first mover status, Gasfrac has a tremendous experience, know how and intellectual capital that can not be easily replicated.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 7, 2012. 01:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Poseidon Concepts: Storms Ahead [View article]
    Like I said, not in-depth; but some quantitative analysis.

    as for this:

    "Personally I see great potential for the company to further increase 2012 guidance as they continue building tanks in the second half of the year. The stock could easily double from here"

    If you are long, I sincerely hope so for you.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 3, 2012. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Poseidon Concepts: Storms Ahead [View article]
    Thanks Tim.

    Please note that my analysis is not intended to be an in-depth quantitative review of the business; but rather as a reminder of issues to look out for in the next few quarters.

    Another point, I did not highlight is the history of Poseidon management; while they did an excellent job as managers of Poseidon; their long term track record as managers of Open Range operations (outside of the tank business) was not that encouraging; hence the worry about their ability to diversify and properly operate a complimentary division.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Feb 3, 2012. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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