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Nawar Alsaadi

 
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  • Equal Energy: Broken Management And A Broken Board [View article]
    Roger,

    Sorry to lose you, certainly this battle will take sometime, we are confident that we will win and put this company back on the right track, however it will take sometime and I understand if some shareholders are not ready to wait through this process.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Jan 15 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Energy: Broken Management And A Broken Board [View article]
    Thank you Howard. According to the Board nomination committee, shareholding is not a criteria they are interested in for serving in the Board. I kid you not, this was mentioned to me personally by the head of the nomination committee. Basically they seem only interested in technocrats or cronies that have nothing to do with the owners of this company, and we see where that got the company.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Jan 15 10:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Energy: Broken Management And A Broken Board [View article]
    I don't blame you John, thank you for your support over the last many months. Good luck to you.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Jan 14 05:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Poseidon Concepts: Storms Ahead [View article]
    Laba,

    Thanks for your comment, unfortunately I have not been following Poseidon lately as my activist battle at Equal Energy (EQU) is consuming most of my time, should I get a chance, I will post an update in the future.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Jan 7 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Propane Prices Are Set To Rebound Sharply In 2013 [View article]
    Bankstocks,

    Thank you for your comment and input on activism, indeed in order to get results, myself and fellow shareholders had to beat on them constantly, and despite the board low shareholdings we have managed to obtain a lot of what we demanded; to his credit the company new chairman (Mr.Botterill) did demonstrate a sensitivity to shareholder's concerns and he has maintained an active and open dialogue with us. We expect the conversion to a trust or MLP to take place in the next couple of weeks.

    In terms of valuation, once Equal converts into a Trust or an MLP I expect the stock to trade in the $5 to $6 range based on current energy prices, with a scope for a move into the high single digits should NGL and NG prices rebound as far as I expect in 2013.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Nov 26 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Energy: Still Undervalued With Several Near-Term Catalysts [View article]
    Lane,

    I will answer this one. They are both important:

    Equal NGL barrel is benchmarked against Conway Propane, however Equal NGLs include other components (35% Ethane, 35% Propane, 15% Butane and 15% Pentane), the price of Ethane has an impact on realizations, in the current low ethane and propane pricing environment Equal realizations increase (and are currently at 93%) since the weighting of the heavy NGLs (Butane and Pentane) is more pronounced, in periods of high ethane and propane prices realizations decrease.

    Adam is projecting an 81% realization in his model so he is projecting ethane prices to be low, while Propane, Butane and Pentane will revert back to their historical range thus pulling Equal realizations lower (even though the absolute price per barrel will be higher), overtime he is stating that once ethane reverts back to more normalized pricing this would be a further boost to Equal NGL barrel price.

    I expect ethane prices to rise somewhat as propane prices rebound, however I don't expect ethane prices to go back to their historical ranges before 2016 at the earliest when significant new cracking capacity comes into service.

    There is much more upside to Propane, Butane and Pentane because they can be exported; Equal NGL mix is quite favourable with only 35% ethane compared to 60%+ ethane for operators in the Marcellus for example and 42% to 45% industry average.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Nov 23 03:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Poseidon Concepts: Storms Ahead [View article]
    Thanks Scul, my guess a lot of those guys are in hiding right now; I really feel bad for the income investors who were sold the story as a safe income stock.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Nov 16 05:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Propane Prices Are Set To Rebound Sharply In 2013 [View article]
    from JP Morgan this morning:

    We expect propane supply growth from field production to continue in 2013 at a pace of approximately 10% yoy, but increasing volumes of exports out of the US Gulf Coast will likely help rebalance inventories to bring total stocks back to a normal range by 2Q2013. Assuming North America experiences a normal
    winter, seasonal heating demand could shift the fundamental balances enough to bring propane prices back toward the historical relationship with WTI crude oil from recently depressed levels. Propane prices could rebound to a range of $1.10 to $1.35/gallon—approxima... 50% to 60% of WTI—given our
    forecast for a $95/bbl average for WTI in 1Q2013. While we are not overly optimistic on the future outlook for NGLs in general, some support from seasonal and export factors could provide upside for propane prices in the first half of 2013.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Nov 15 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • France Telecom: An Opportunity To Buy This 10% Dividend Yielder At 52-Week Lows [View article]
    Great article, I fully agree France Telecom is an excellent yield investment in the current environment, their growth markets should certainly counter the current weakness in the core, it is worth noting that France Telecom has an excellent triple play offering (IPTV, High speed internet and phone service), I have tried their IPTV product while I was living in Paris, it is certainly far better than what I have seen in North America.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Nov 14 07:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Energy & The Theater Of The Absurd [View article]
    Thanks for your comment Aharon. Indeed, events are unfolding to the benefit of shareholders. I believe many investors remain unaware of the upcoming income stream from Equal Energy and the associated upside from having a yield stock in the current low rates environment; buying at those levels certainly makes tremendous sense.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Nov 6 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Propane Prices Are Set To Rebound Sharply In 2013 [View article]
    This morning the EIA reported very bullish propane demand/supply numbers and a further shrinkage in the storage differential vs 2011:

    Propane demand:

    Weekly number: 1.33m vs 978K or 36% increase vs 2011
    4 weeks average: 1.32m vs 1.03m or 28.7% increase vs 2011

    Propane supply:

    Weekly number: 1.267m vs 1.155m or 9.6% increase vs 2011
    4 weeks average: 1.285m vs 1.141m or 12.6% increase vs 2011

    Storage:

    73.9m vs 60.3m or 22.7% more than 2011, however this presents a decrease from 26% excess storage last week.

    http://1.usa.gov/QX1O8f

    It is worth noting however that Enterprise expanded export terminal will enter into service in January 2013 instead of December 2012 apparently due to slight construction delays.

    It is also worth noting that the upcoming EIA report could also turn out to be a bullish report due to the effects of Sandy, propane refinery production in the east coast probably slowed down due to the refinery shutdowns, meanwhile propane demand probably increased due to propane generators demand, and increased propane demand for heating due to colder weather.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Nov 1 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Propane Prices Are Set To Rebound Sharply In 2013 [View article]
    Samura, you might be right about this, I am trying to confirm this but Merrill Lynch has not included it in their net export capacity increase estimate for 2013, thus it is possible that has been delayed. The delay of Vitol puts further onus on the weather, if we get a normal winter not having Vitol would not have a material impact on the article conclusion.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 24 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Propane Prices Are Set To Rebound Sharply In 2013 [View article]
    Anchorite, if the goal is to have a hedge than you need to go long both of them since those stocks react differently to rising/declining propane prices, if you short PDH and go long EQU you would be double long, so you need to choose going short PDH or long EQU if you don't wish to have a hedged position.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 23 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Propane Prices Are Set To Rebound Sharply In 2013 [View article]
    Interestingly enough today Merrill Lynch issued a research note confirming the findings in my article, from the Merrill note:

    In a note to investors, the bank said the US propane market would rebalance in 2013 from its current excess of supply as greater export opportunities opened up and winter heating demand recovered.

    The bank added that while propane in the US has a broad production base, which would ensure amply supply, a normal winter would support demand growth on a year-over-year basis.

    Beginning in 2013, the spread between ethane and propane will likely widen compared with current levels, as propane renews its correlation with crude oil, and traders meet export-led demand.

    The expected surge in exports will also narrow the difference between prices of propane at Mont Belvieu, Texas, and in Northwest Europe, it added. Currently, Mont Belvieu propane is trading at a 49% discount to European levels, compared with a discount of 1% between 2002 and 2009.

    http://bit.ly/Tcdiqj

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 22 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nexen (NXY) shares -10% premarket following Canada's decision to nix the Petronas/Progress Energy deal over the weekend. Opportunity? "You've got to look at each deal on its own," writes Michael Babad, suggesting the government could see the Cnoonc/Nexen takeover in a different light than other recent high-profile rejections. [View news story]
    I actually think this is bullish for the Nexen deal, I think the government is using the Progress review as a way to show that those deals are not rubber stamped, now the media will cover this rejection for the next couple of weeks and thus communicating to Canadians that the government is “doing its job”, Petronas already had a JV with Progress to build the LNG terminal and develop their Montney acreage so they are taking little risk by blocking the deal, even if Petronas doesn’t come back with better terms, the JV should still go through.

    Rejecting both the Progress and Nexen deal would send a terrible message to the investment community that can halt the development of Canada energy resources, this is another reason why this rejection is bullish for the Nexen deal, they decided to play hard ball with Malaysia and will likely give a pass to China, even though if Petronas comes back with better terms they will likely approve that deal as well.

    It is shameful however that Progress and its investors are being used and abused in this manner, but this is politics at its finest!.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 22 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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